Sunny Leith
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Posts posted by Sunny Leith
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Very very light snow in the wind here in Leith. The metoffice forecast for here will be "correct" on a technicailty it seems. Pah !
From my window the Fife coast is getting that smudged hazy look so theres some stuff falling towards there. Looks like the radar is showing a smudge of precipitation has just appeared out of nothing in the last hour or so.
Poor effort compared to you luckys beggars up north !
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The snow is creeping down from the north, but can it make it the 50 miles to Dundee without fizzling out?
Place your bets ladies and gentlemen, in the lottery that is Scotlands weather
Wil it creep to Dundee ? Maybe
Will it creep on to Edinburgh and the SE ? Heart says yes, head says no...
I don't want to be too hard on the metoffice/BBC but what the heck I will. Its basically about 33% correct at this point.
NE Snow ... Yes, they got that right (the easy part)
No real snow west of Harthill .. Wrong, as the reports from Kilmarnock indicates
SE Snow ... no, quite wrong . Unless that splodge makes it intact down the country (that'd be a first)
Most on here would have made a better 12-18 hour forecast at teatime yesterday than Gail did on the BBC.
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I think that the metoffice/BBC are not for the first time, sticking with a forecast thats already gone wrong. This for SW Scotland Lothian and the Borders, issued this afternoon and the line they've stuck with subsequently.
Headline:
Sleet and snow overnight, slowly clearing during Thursday.
This Evening and Tonight:
A frosty evening in the south, then the sleet and snow in the Central Belt will move south, giving moderate falls across the Borders, elsewhere mainly slight. Moderate northeast winds. Minimum temperature -1 °C.
Thursday:
Cloudy for much of the time with further outbreaks of snow, heavy over parts of the Borders but light and patchy elsewhere. Turning dry, clear and frosty by evening, Maximum temperature 2 °C.
Only problem is that the sleet and snow in the central belt was patchy and miniscule... its already gone... and theres none of that left to move south. Yes, its belting down in the far NE but it goes against all experience that this essentially convective activity will migrate over 150 miles of mountains and hills to deliver anything. Good luck to the NE but I'll eat the hat of anyones choice if it makes its way as far south as they're suggesting. I can't think of anytime that I've seen that happen. You might as well say an easterly will deliver snow to Oban...same idea and just as unlikely.
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Hi Dexter
We may be looking at a damp squib then!!
lets hope not.
To be honest, forecasting snow for the north with these likely northerly synoptics is a safe bet for the metoffice. Where they get it wrong time and time again is when they predict anything out of this south of Perth, Stirling etc. A few lucky places might get something filtering through during the night ... but the big white snow blob positioned over Edinburgh and the SE for the early hours struck me as most unlikely.
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The graphics were poor, showing the heavier precip over the eastern side of the central belt when clearly it is out west!
Absolutely. They need to do a bit more looking out the window to see whats actually going on as opposed to what theoretically might occur if this or that happens.
Immediate threat looks to be on the west side of the country. How could she not mention that from a BBC studio in Glasgow ?
And after that, yes OK, the north-east, Tayside/Aberdeenshire etc . But I just don't see anything else happening later on for anyone else.
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Gail on Reporting Scotland @ 6.55pm (she is a little cutie :wub: ) mentions shed loads for Aberdeenshire.
Other notable areas were Edinburgh, eastern areas. The west looked like it had nothing..I'm inbetween east and west so dunno what I'll get - rain? LOL
Have to say I didn't buy that forecast at all for the south-east. At least not based on current synoptics, current radar etc
Although they do have access to a lot more data than us... the thing is when they're wrong they tend to stick with being wrong all the way to the bitter end.
I just don't see anything in the immediate next 12 hours that will see any eastern areas south of Aberdeenshire/Eastern Tayside getting any snow other than flakes in the wind !
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East Kilbride, South Lanarkshire
Sorry mate, dismal attempt by me trying to be funny there. Its just seems to have become a catchphrase sine the Channel 4 series of the same name...
Anyway, theres no question that 700ft up you're going to catch it from all sides a lot of the time. Yup, its all about "location location location" for East Kilbride.
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East Kilbride Weather Station update 1835 GMT
Temp: -1.1c
Dew Point: -1.7c
Heavy Snow falling
:o Location location location !
Congrats
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Patience my young Padawans - this northerly hasn't really started yet.
Keep watch here:
and on the Netweather Radar.
I expect more to come tonight.
Good for your location LadyPakal, hope you get a worthwhile pile of the white stuff.
But south of Stirling, there'll be little snow action for the central belt from any northerly.
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All of 50,000 flakes scattered across the surface of the greater Leith area. If I scrunch my eyes up really tight I can just about pretend theres lying snow...but its halting now.
The danger with all this "the heavier stuff is coming later" is that it usually just doesn't pan out. One of the great metoffice lies (its what we were told was to happen on Monday night after all). It's always going to be later ... overnight ... the next day ... the next front ... the next depression. Good chance for central belters is that what we wake up to tomorrow is what we've got now. Up north though they probably have a good shout at it by the looks of things, fair play to them.
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I'm assuming its snowing on the south side of Fife now. I can see the Fife coast from my window at the top of Leith Walk and it's done a dissapearing act.
What happens now is that I wait for it to get over here ... and wait ... and wait ... and wait ... and then kick the cat !
Edit: the cat is spared... very very fine snow in the wind now here at the top of Leith.
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Latest radar shot (today's only freebie ) - shows the front moving down now. The ppn over the highlands is fragmenting, yes, but at the same time what there is is heavier at the back edge
True. But I expect that the heavier stuff will also be be grapped by all points north of the central belt. God I want to be proved wrong.
Jeez...I've only been posting here for 12 hours and I'm whining already
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Again radar showing some degree of break up and lessening in intensity over time. Even as time goes on I'd be surprised to see Embra have any more than flurries over the next 12-18 hours or so. At best I expect to wake up to a couple of millimetres rather than the metoffice projected warning of 2cms. Little or nothing from these setups is the historical norm after all in these parts...
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If I have any reservations it's that the intensity of any precipitation (looking at the radar over the last few hours) seems to have declined over time as its staggered southwards. No surprise given its passage over the higher ground but wondering what'll be left as it gets to central Scotland.
Oh well beggars can't be choosers...
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That's funny, 'cos on xcweather it is reported as 0 and heavy snow in Aviemore... same at the meto.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/he/...st_weather.html
Traffic cams from near that location show snow.
Thanks for that LadyPakal. Your information is much better and more reliable. Looks like I should chuck this URL in the bin !
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Well it was pouring with rain all day yesteday and even when i went to bed at 1am last night, woke up this morning to 2" of snow, driving over the Slug Road to Banchory there was 6" of snow, that was at 830am. The snow hasn't stopped and its now 11am. The sky is grey and looks like it will snow all day, here's hoping so!!!
Good for you mate
Usual contradictory stuff happening at the same time. Head across to the "interior" where one might expect conditions to be worse, and Aviemore is reporting 3c and rain. Go figure ! Seems like whatever is heading south is the usual typically inconsistent incoherent heterogeneous air mass...certainly far from being a big wodge of snow...localised "pot luck" later on perhaps, with the possibility of rain or sleet or snow or just nothing at all.
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scotland road web cams.....
http://www.trafficscotland.org/lev/index.aspx
well would you look at that.... 4 years of lurking, and i have to go and ruin it with a post
We're all coming out the woodwork now mate, must be a backlash to the English/Welsh snow
Anyway, metoffice warnings coming out now. Crying wolf ? Time will tell.
SW Scotland, Lothians, Borders
Snow will continue to edge south across all areas during Wednesday afternoon and will persist this evening and overnight. Accumulations of 2 to 5cm are expected and up to 10cm on higher ground.
The public are advised to take extra care and refer to 'Traffic Scotland' for further advice on road conditions.
Issued at: 1015 Wed 4 Feb
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There are undoubtedly good technical reasons why similar setups to today haven't delivered in the past in the central belt/major cities. But on the wider Scottish picture its infuriating that even with cold setups like this...that at this latitude, surrounded by moisture on all sides, and with mostly moderate sized mountains (hardly alpine), we can barely ever muster a generalised snowfall here. Its beyond belief sometimes
However as usual I'll put 30 odd years of weather watching on the backburner and revert to an element of hopecasting for all areas south of Perth/Stirling as the day progresses.We need a Scottish Whiners corner, I'd be in there 24 x 7
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Yes but that's when the cliques begin to form! Having said that, the Model Discucssion has become one major Southern England clique. People talking about wobbles in the models and the GFS being too progressive if the snow risk dares to approach even Northern England.
I think you're understating it Blizzard. In fact anything that moves the risk north of the M25 is a "downgrade"
Actually they are of course kindred spirits. And I daresay I'd view it the same way if "my snow" got shoved 20 miles away to Linlithgow or somesuch
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There was plenty of ice forming at 7pm on my way home from work in Dundee. Windows of the house are frosted over.
Tomorrow is looking good but after last night I shall remain reserved until I actually see the famed white stuff frop from the sky.
We should keep this national weather discussion as a permanent feature, it is fairly drawing us together.
We should indeed Hiya. No disrespect to my Southern friends but "Will it snow in Welwyn Garden City" just wasn't doing it for me I'm afraid.
Good to see so many local weather-heids on this thread. -
Something that I noticed yesterday when scanning around various Scottish sites.... Oban was not surprisingly one of the warmest spots. But I noticed an observation there from sometime in the afternoon I think ... Oban reported a snow shower at 8c and 53% humidity. Technically possible to have snow at that temp and with such low humidity I guess...but can anyone from these parts confirm if that actually happened or was it just a dodgy report ?
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Freezing point and below
Yes indeedy
Got to be measured at what ... 4 or 5 feet in a screen above the ground I'm sure (?) I used to keep my own temperature records when I first got the weather-bug, all my (ahem) "observations" though were taken from a council-flat balcony about 80 feet above the ground. Not exactly "standard" but in the big bad cold spells of the 70s and 80s still saw some bone-chattering -8, -9c readings.Good to see some decent low-values again this winter. And hope your analysis for tomorrow pays off BTW !
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Yep all the snowmelt had already frozen around my way by 5pm
Welcome to NW by-tor, have fun on here.
I have noticed that as well, rainfall averages are about the same believe it or not but the Gulf Stream must push up the humidity on the west coast a fair bit. The snow has been good I agree but the thing that amazes me this year in Edinburgh is how easily the temp drops below 0C, and then not just by 1 or 2 degrees as in the past but even further. -3C at the moment and still dropping.
Thanks for that Snow Leopard. Done plenty of sledging on Corstorphine Hill in the 70's up by Drumbrae. Saw you reporting 10cms yesterday. Nearest hill to here is Calton Hill. Rarely seen the effects of height as graphically as yesterday. Street level at the top of Leith Walk where I live... wet pavements and some minor patches. Took the 7 year-old up Calton Hill after school to a winter wonderland ... 5 minutes walk away and it can't be more than 200ft heigher up. Lots of snow, managed to make a snowman before a brutal snow-shower forced us off again. A truly marginal day !
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Thanks, its my first winter in Edinburgh I only moved here in September so I don't really know what to expect. Though I have noticed how dry it is, the humidity is far lower than what it is over on west coast on average, it still amuses me haha.
It's ok I don't really mind a 'no event we got tons of snow on Monday, more than I have seen in years I've had more than I expected this winter
I hope Shuggee is on the money. I love Edinburgh but always find it to be one of the most infuriating places to live weather wise. In 35 years of local weather watching (...said in croaking voice of an old man LOL) I've seen snow arrive here from almost every part of the compass - but not too often. The floodgates only open up when the starting conditions are right and the cold drag is from somewhere between NE and ESE, just like our 18-24 hours worth yesterday.
Best winter here for a while indeed. But wait till the summer kicks in, 2 hots days then the fog rolls in, gets me every time ! :blush:
Snow Watch: Scotland
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by by-tor
What ? Don't you know your geography ?
Moors -> Scotland -> Dragon Country -> Edge of world (sheer drop)