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Sunny Leith

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    Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion - 16/01/2018 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    1 minute ago, LomondSnowstorm said:

    Hi everyone, long time no see!

    If you haven't been following my antics on facebook I'm back in Scotland this year working in Cumbernauld for an MP/MSP for my sins, but I've still been tracking the charts closely. It took me a wee bit to get into the schedule of 9-5 rather than the ad hoc night time working I'm used to so I haven't posted in far too long but the -15C uppers have drawn me back in again:cold::cold::cold:

    I'm just back in from a (quiet) night out with some other long lost friends so I'm a bit tired but if I don't do a proper summary tonight I'll get one up tomorrow morning after the 00Zs are out. There were one or two moments in the evolution where it looked a tad dicey, and had the potential to turn into something of a high pressure snoozefest here a la February 2012 but fortunately I suspect it's more a question of how good and how long rather than if we'll get any snow at all at this stage, at least for those of us not to the west of the mountains...

    Yay you're back ! We've got the full house :friends: Will someone be relaying back reports from the Freuchie met station  ? :D

    Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion - 16/01/2018 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    13 minutes ago, Sawel said:

    Looking at the archives I would have thought that eastern Scotland would have been pummelled in 1991? Hope this upcoming event is one to remember!

    Can only speak for Embra in Feb 1991 easterly. 2-3 weekdays of heavy snow showers then on the Saturday afternoon into the Sunday a heavy and long fall. Decent depths, I'd have to find the pictures I took in town on that Sunday (didn't do digital photography back then!). 

    Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion - 16/01/2018 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    Wee hark-back to March/April 2013 and why I have no concerns next week about increasing sun-strength, North Sea temperatures etc 

    View ootside the hoose onto the powder snow mean streets of Leith on March 11th. Then the baltic day of March 23rd with temperature stuck at 33F for a solid 24hrs+ with a non-stop 20MPH easterly. Then April 2nd up at Balerno looking out over The Pentlands. Bottom line if its cold enough then there's not a lot that March can do to moderate it all that much.

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    • Like 7

    Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion - 16/01/2018 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by Paul Martin

    4 hours ago, Ruzzi said:

    Yep exactly, but it comes down to direction of the flow, so if the flow is more NE or NNE rather than ENE then it's more likely to bring the city into the game. But generally a ENE or direct E wind direction it's the likes of West Lothian, north Lanarkshire that get the worst of it. If the flow is strong enough you can get the precipitation making it through towards Glasgow. 

    It is also harder for the snow to settle in Edinburgh city centre due to its proximity to the sea and the fact that it's very low in respect of height above sea level, but with the upcoming set up next week, that won't be an issue, it'll be purely down to where the precipitation falls, no marginality at all by Tuesday/Wednesday. So if the flow were to turn more NE then the city could well get a very good fall 

    TBH a NE flow rarely works here. The sticky-oot bit of Fife breaks things up and it all goes east and south of us. From experience I'd say there's about a 30 degree range on the compass between north east by east and due-east where I'd be sure we'd land something decent. Any other direction and most of it get's stolen by the well-kent snow-thiefs on this forum :D Anyway, I think (hope) we have 48-72 hours next week where we're in the game flow wise.

    • Like 4

    Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion - 16/01/2018 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    3 hours ago, 101_North said:

    I see @Ruzzi beat me too it :)

    There's a whole host of reasons why West Lothian does better than Edinburgh but I wouldn't necessarily count a Forth-Clyde streamer as one of them. Edinburgh can do very well from a streamer (relative to it's low lying, exposed, coastal position) but as it's an easterly based setup it's actually quite a rare thing. A NE flow especially can be great. Anything South of East can be crap. In the more common westerly setups, like we've seen this winter, I'd guess that the main reasons West Lothian does better than Edinburgh is that it's less sheltered, is further west and in general has a greater height above sea level. 

    Being less sheltered West Lothian will generally catch more showers from most directions. Even it's modest altitude can have a huge impact on the amount of falling and lying snow - especially the case with frontal snowfall. A greater height above sea level will also generally mean heavier precipitation than more low lying areas which is why weather warnings will often have far greater accumulation amounts for higher lying areas. Livingston for example is around +150m and many parts of West Lothian much higher than that and so don't suffer the same issues as Edinburgh in marginal setups.   

    I don't grudge them getting more than Leith as long as we get 10cms to their 40cms :D You should definitely do well next week in Currie.

    • Like 2

    Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion - 16/01/2018 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    1 minute ago, TinyTim said:

    Paul

    Thank you for the confirmation :) I am aware that these aren't necessarily accurate, but I've always found them a bit disconcerting when ever other source seems to be saying something different!

    Cheers

    Tim

    Aye we'll all nervy here until we're 24-48 hours away from it hitting us Tim. :D Right now we're 4-5 days away from it, so enough time for everything to shift 200 miles and leave us cold but dry. But model consistency has been remarkable and I'm a heartbeat away from just outright expectation that it's going to hit us the way we all want it.

    • Like 2

    Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion - 16/01/2018 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, TinyTim said:

    Okay... got to say, that on paper this is potentially the snowiest I'll have ever seen... on paper (beating 2010)...

    However, what has got me nervous is that the BBC / Met Office just ain't buying it... the forecast has a paltry few flakes on Wednesday and nothing else at all...

    Now, I know this is most likely wrong and that they are conservative in the extreme when it comes to forecasting white stuff (which I totally understand), but it doesn't make it easier when I start fretting that just somehow this will be a disappointment.

    Having said all that, I've got my boots at the ready for the first time since 2010, so let's just keep the fingers crossed :)

    Tim

    Let me say again...take no notice of BBC/MetOffice snow forecasts for east and central Scotland 5,6,7 days away from now. These forecasted synpotics will deliver as long as they actually materialise.

    • Like 4

    Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion - 16/01/2018 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, mardatha said:

    The BBC has for my postcode 2 whole hours of light snow showers on Wednesday, and that's IT. I'm not listening to you lot any more, I'm not playing !!:girl_devil:

    I spent most of my time here in the 2009/10 and 2010/11 winters, both had many notable snow events then in Scotland as we all remember. but as we also remember the BBC/MetOffice were regularly wrong about where, when and how much snow would fall. Often they were very wrong even in the 6-12 hours before lots of us got dumped on. They're particularly poor when it comes to easterlies here and virtually any snow forecast they make for here next week I would ignore at this point. If these favourable charts from Mon/Tues onwards come to pass,  I have no doubt we'll see plenty snow in east/central areas, at which point the BBC/Metoffice will play catch up by nowcasting. Which is what we'll all be doing anyway in conjunction with the radar !

    • Like 4
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    Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion - 16/01/2018 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by Paul Martin

    17 minutes ago, 101_North said:

    My naturally sunny disposition has me imagining all sorts of disappointment! I can handle crushed hopes from the west but this is something different entirely:rofl:

    Yeah same as you, I'm fearing that a maximum-strength snow-shield will be assembled with specially reinforced deflectors over a 10 mile radius of Edinburgh Castle, with huge snowy radar blobs going north, south, east and west of us. But if these charts do come to pass at the start of next week then I'd say its close to impossible that we'd be able to avoid snow here.  

    • Like 1

    Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion - 16/01/2018 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

    Like this but snowier?? :)

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    I'm with you on the slightly north of east wind direction, it puts a grand total of about 18 miles of land between me and hundreds upon hundreds of miles of North Sea.

    If these easterly synpotics play out as we hope,  then for east coasters/central scotlanders it always takes a day or two for reality to catch up with these legendarily and confusingly poor precipitation forecasts. Going by previous outbreaks then often nothing better than wintry showers / snow flurries are indicated here on forecasts. I expect by sometime monday into Tuesday then the radar and now-casting will tell an entirely different story :D

    Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion - 16/01/2018 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by Paul Martin

    23 minutes ago, Hairy Celt said:

    GFS now showing us getting snow falling on and off for over a week, if I'm seeing that right.

    Ok, I'm taxiing towards the runway now.

    Even allowing for the fact that it's just supercomputers churning out 1's and 0's, I think that GFS 18z has to be the most amazing cold/snow run I've ever seen. It's off the scale. Epic bordering on cataclysmic. Any downgrades to come would make it only moderately severe...

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    Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion - 16/01/2018 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by Paul Martin

    6 minutes ago, Paul Martin said: 
    
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/lRJldrUKaDs" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; encrypted-media" allowfullscreen></iframe>

     

    God that went well. :pardon: Anyway, what I meant to say was I'm hoping for a re-run of Dec 2010, The last time Arthurs seat/Salisbury crags was a ski-park and the only-time I heard a genuine avalanche warning being issued :reindeer-emoji:

     

    • Like 17

    Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion - 16/01/2018 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by Paul Martin

    8 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

    this might even be cold enough for snaw in embra :-)

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    Absolutely. From recent-ish experience (winter 2010/11 and parts of 2009/10) we all know that's more than sufficient.  -8 850's or colder will do the trick here. Need an ENE flow for the jackpot, we don't want Fifers and folk from Berwickshire stealing our snaw !

    • Like 2

    Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion - 16/01/2018 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by Paul Martin

    1 hour ago, Hawesy said:

    Beat me to it. :D

    Thanks for that info, @Norrance, really interesting. Apparently even Crail did very well in January 87, so it was one for the ages. I still maintain the 50cm in East Kilbride was the biggest snowfall in Scotland  during the Jan 87 event. :D

    Central Glasgow was just crazy though, never seen snow like it. As I said 35cm in my garden in Kings Park. It was one of the top 2 winter events I experienced in Glasgow (the other being the 5 day December 1995 freeze, culminating in the record -19.8c temperature being recorded at Glasgow Airport). The winter of 81/82 would be the best all-round. 

    Anyway, let’s face it, this easterly has got France and Spain written all over it....the whole thing will adjust southwards.*

    *I’m employing the reverse psychology strategy, folks. :D

    Good thinking ! I don't feel confident enough yet to call it from a local perspective. It could still turn out to be a chiefly southerners event or even hold-off to the east... But suffice to say if the models hold true then there's no doubt in my mind we'll see very similar snow impacts and depths to previous easterly outbreaks of this type. They're often heralded by BBC forecasts that don't indicate there'll be much snow here, when the synoptics are screaming otherwise. It's been a permanent blind spot in their forecasting.

    • Like 2

    Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion - 16/01/2018 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    Just now, 101_North said:

    I think someone on my street is an ageing relative of a council person! They are never finished gritting and clearing our pavements. Sometimes at all hours of the morning. Drives me nuts LOL

    Great snowfall here today. Easily the best for a number of years :)

    And long overdue ! Radar shows another nice big blob approaching Dunblane/Stirling, looks like it might follow the same track as the wee snaw-bomb we just had here.

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