Sunny Leith
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Posts posted by Sunny Leith
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Typical urban slushfest down here just now. Long way to go but would be dissapointed to wake up here to 2mm's of cold grey runny wallpaper paste.
Fingers crossed.
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Tiny marginal temperature shift in the right direction in uppers or wet bulb/dry bulb could make all the difference here.
I think we need a good hour of persistent snowfall. These ten minute showers wont settle permanently as ground/surface temps are too warm. 3 miles inland though its a ery different story, twas ever thus sadly...
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Not very impressive piece of night-time photography of the neighbouring bowling green. It's sticking OK but with slushing inbetween-times, it needs more snaw more often over the coming hours to make this truly memorable.
Edit: photo is more reminiscent of Hitchcock's "Rear Window" !
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Aye, don't worry , they'll clock off in time to make sure the morning trip to work is impossible !
That's the council clearing the pavements already! What a complete waste of time! Madness!
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Think we must have been under the centre of that last burst. But now its off again and its slushing up again.
Nothing like last weeks beautiful snow - but if it keeps going over the coming hours then we should get some traction even at street level.
Dammit man you've skipped the snow queue somehow! Still not quite there yet on the tarmac, must just be lack of intensity at the moment, West Lothian taking a beating as always! Glad I didn't go out to Armadale or I don't think I would've made it back.
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streets and pavements all white here...I'm at the top end of Leith Walk, maybe another 50 metres higher than Trinity. It's that marginal. But everything heading the right way I think....
lol by-tor - are u on a roof
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Phecking blizzard outside right now !
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Early days here in Leith .... but taking here as a low-lying coastal benchmark - and with the whole overnight period to go - some places are going to get pummelled with snaw !
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I'm slightly edgy on this one. With convection you pretty much know what to expect - radar blob comes your way, dumps some stuff, and repeat. This more organised (we hope) stuff is showing plenty cloud coming in but apart from some light snow and graupel earlier on here, its possible it may not live up to expectations - well very locally anyway.
Ignore me... its just first-night nerves all over again
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Chief Forecaster ? You mean LS, right ?
Yes, surprising tbh although DP's and uppers look at their best about now, Embra is in the Amber Zone and the Chief Forecaster doesn't talk about coastal marginality in his assessment
(they usually do!)
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Aye, theres always quite a spread of possibilities, all the way from a lot of something to a lot of nothing !
Long way to go yet though, fingers crossed...
I wouldn't be surprised if this all came to nothing
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Blowing light snow here in Embra city-centre but no intensity to it. But baltic outside though... and as things stand if it got its act together I'd be expecting further snow rather than sleet.
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Things heading the right way. Embra Airport at 8AM was 4C, DP2C ... at 10AM down to 3C, DP 1C.
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Aye, their temperature forecasts are off, but its always the case. I never put any trust in them anyway, whether its above or below what they say:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/dg/edinburgh_forecast_weather.html
The problem with these type of forecasts, is that they dont't even bother to nowcast just by reading the thermometer or looking out of the window, Been too many times - especially in these easterly situations - where they say black is white, even when the evidence of our own eyes contradicts what they're saying.
Anyway, whats for us will no go past us ...or however the saying goes again
Temp here still +4c/2c. Still running about 2c higher than forecast. Met had 2c for 9am when I checked earlier.
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In a similar vein, did you see the Piers Corbyn piece from 2 days ago "The mini-ice age is upon us" http://bit.ly/YwPTBH
I don't take him too seriously to be honest ... but a little bit of me thinks he just might be onto something.
yeah thats why i was bold the other day and said i dont think we will see a cracking summer i may be wrong but i really think this whole northern blocking caper isnt just a winter thing and the odd summer i think something drastic has changed and nearly all summers in the near future will see alot of northern blocking aswell
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Aye, its very much like that particular period. I don't recall us being under seriously cold uppers for all of that time, but we were certainly trapped under decent cold depths with a variety of synoptic evolutions. There was a period then - and in the subsequent winter - when I'd more or less convinced myself that "it just wanted to snow". Daft thing to say, but in essence that's just how it felt.
I think either way it looks snowy here, whether it takes the GFS route of bringing in the trough and having the frontal battleground over us or whether the trough just disrupts to the west and we end up in a bitter easterly.
Interesting how similar the current pattern is to pre-Christmas '09, snow events popping up out of nowhere and coming at us from all directions once again.
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Aye point taken, they do tend towards haar by spring but think you're right on the rationale for their current coldness. Just saw a BBC News 24 forecast earlier that was hinting at *next weekends* snow chances, not often they speculate that far head, but surely also indicative of relative confidence that the current pattern is going to play out largely as we expect it to over the next week.
Yeah, we've decided that we should endeavour to turn out in some form every weekend where possible, was at a demo on Thursday morning for Phillip Hammond's speech but he changed venues at the last minute so we were left on a wild goose chase for half an hour before giving up. Definitely going to be out loads in the summer campaigning where possible with both the Fife and Edinburgh groups, in fact I'm piping at the Yes Cupar launch in May.
The oddity for me is not the easterlies in themselves but the fact that they're still snowy rather than cool and haar dominated. I can remember a few of the latter a few springs ago and just took it as a given that cold sourced easterlies 'end' in February when the continent starts to warm up but this March and last April have shown this to be untrue. It could be just a statistical fluke but I believe it must be linked to the southward tracking of the jet since 2007 and the very much increased prevalence of northerly blocking, whereby the temperate latitudes have borne the brunt of the cold and seem to continually eek out what remains of the vortex right into April and May.
I think the reason for the easterly tendency is that easterlies or northeasterlies are perhaps a 'purer' reflection of a southerly tracking jet than a northerly. Northerlies or northwesterlies require some degree of low heights to the north or northeast and with the core of the heights this winter due north this simply hasn't been feasible. '47 and this winter are synoptic cousins in many ways, including both the global impact they had at mid latitudes (I believe '47 had a much vaunted US blizzard associated with it) and the prevalence of cold southeasterly or easterlies.
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Didn't think we'd see a repeat of anything like the cold and snow of early last week but that chart is not so far off the mark. OK the sun is another week stronger at the surface but in all other respects its now possible that we could see something close to a repeat.
that NAE snow chart looks mega and could be the start of the best snow of winter/spring
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No worries LS, just ribbing you... ;-) It was a real bonus these guys turning out today. Roll on spring and better days for campaigning but bloody hell these March synpotics are for ongoing cold. Seen plenty Northerly or North Westerly spells of March cold, but not sure I can recall too many with such an extended easterly bias. Going to be an interesting week or two.
Apologies, I'll be along for the next one, snow dependent of course. As for the forecast, I think I did take my eye off the ball with that one, though the modelling of it was very mixed and the NMM suggested nothing at all for the entire day, a rare miss for it.
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Getting on for late March, these are insane values. I'd be surprised to see things quite as cold as that but think most of us are feeling that the forecast synoptics *will* play out in general terms. It's now just a question of the specifics, depth of cold, local factors etc ...
By the way, was out leafleting in Leith with some EUSNA mates of yours this morning. Must have slipped your mind LS, you could at least have issued a local forecast :-0
I almost choked on my tea when I saw the latest yr.no long range for Edinburgh based on the ECM:
http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/Scotland/Edinburgh/long.html
Monday 6pm-the following Tuesday 12pm sees the temperature not getting above 2C for the entirety of the period. Temperatures from a week tonight through to a week on Tuesday do not get above 0C with circa 15-20cm snow falling in that time, 5-7cm before then.
If the ECM 12Z verifies, this will be the coldest March since 1947, and barring a sudden warm up the coldest March in history.
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Aye, the kind of day nobody wants. Right on cue though, the sun just showing through here in a break in the clouds. Now that's just extracting the proverbial urine !
Spring - we want spring. Sunshine and warmth. A truly horrible day here of icy sleet. Urgh.
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Honking honking day here. Persistant drippy sleet over the last few hours in Leith, cars covered in grey slush at various points but easing off now. Just yeuch.
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Aye, but it plays havoc with our horses and carts though, I couldn't get Daisy out the stable yesterday !
Yes, it's ridiculous how a little bit of snow in the Home Counties causes so many problems. The Scotch are much better at coping with it although that's partly due to the lack of cars on the road.
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Aye. Embra airport now reporting -8C.
From watching these low-minima situations before, its surprising (or not) how non-linear any temperature drop can be. Even when overhead and wind conditions are favourable, it very often seems to stall and flatten out - or even increase again.
However, if it does get down to -10C there, thats a very cold night for March (probably not a record though)
Coldest temperature of the winter looks set to be broken in the central belt, but unfortunately I believe it's an unofficial station.
West Calder, which previous was an MO recording station and has previous surpassed -24C, is sitting at -11C with similar temperatures in the West Lothian-Lanarkshire area - -9C Symington, -8C Netherton, -8C Bathgate and -7C at Edinburgh Airport.
Correction - the station in question which got below -24C was West Linton, not West Calder.
Scotland Regional Discussion 17th March 2013 18:30>
in Regional
Posted
Just shows you how easy it is to miss out. I could be in your neck of the woods in 5 minutes if I hopped in the car. But we've seen basically nothing of that one at all ! Slushing continues here..