Sunny Leith
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Posts posted by Sunny Leith
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Exactly. The time to start worrying is when we lose favourable dew points and then we really do get into mush, sleet, rain.
Right now the DP side of things looks good.
I don't think you need worry Ally. Look at Lorenzo's and SK's post above.
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Thanks snowking, much appreciated. Good to see that the last 4 or 5 winters have seen us all get some decent winter weather again. Enjoy your snaw !
Just doing the rounds through the regional threads, and it seems you fine folks in the east of the Land of the Kilts are in for a bit of a treat in the next 48 hours as the system pretty much grinds to a halt just to your east.
Here it is arriving on the 12z NAE:
And here it is still going out until the end of the run:
Needless to say if snow's not your thing, might be best to close the curtains now.
I would offer to help dig you all out, but having had about 5-6 inches fall here today, us big southern softies will be the ones that need rescuing!
Good luck to you all
SK
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Yeah I would have liked more frost in the ground than we have - grounds a bit chewy rather than brick hard here.
But anyway, a shallow layer of cold frosty surface air would quickly have got moved on anyway by clouds limiting radiation, wind picking up etc etc
For all us coasties we go with what we've got and hope for the best !
I wouldn't worry about that temperature profile at all, as the front kicks in the dewpoint is likely to rise a bit but as precipitation hits the temperature is likely to fall towards 0C, so I'd say you're pretty well placed at the moment. Given we're usually dealing with going from clear skies to cloud cover which raises the temperature in itself we shouldn't see too much upward forcing of temperatures initially.
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True, true...
Twitching because I can see a bit more street melting going on here...but which is being compensated for visible drying out patches as the +ve air temp and the -ve dew points do that melting/drying/sublimation kinda thing.
Guess its just an indication also that we're not in one of the classic easterlys...the great (rare) ones have hit the east coast with real zero air temps. Guess we make the best of the one we've got and we'll judge by the end of the week where this one stands in our collective experience!
I would rather have seen sub zero temperatures before it but actually it was a similar story on Thursday evening into Friday and that worked out well.
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Light lamppost snow in Leith but a bit of a waste of good dew points.
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Lots of 2's all the way up and down the east coast .. from NE of Scotland down as far as The Wash. Noticed that Embra Airport also recording 2 now. Not peeing myself yet as long as DP's are remaining below 0
Gonna be a long night though, I'm a bit twitchy about the event, I admit it !
Small snowflakes [light] are still falling but the temp has gone up to today's max at 2C. I hope that is as high as it goes.
If tomorrow happens like early Feb 2001 I for one would be happy but just a half degree colder would be better as in the lower parts of the town a lot that fell was very wet and didn't accumulate like it did higher up and inland.
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Obviously well within the 528 edam line...
I'll be pretty cheesed off if we don't match the snow totals in Gouda...
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You have to laugh - metoffice (automated) forecast has Embra down for snaw virtually all the way until end of Thursday night.
Absurd. I really wonder why do the bother with these, an utter joke !
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Edit: fine light snaw in Leith the noo.
Everything getting a fresh but fine dusting here.
Edit: off again
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Theres been wee snaw here in Leith ... about 1 tiny flake per cubic metre ... cannae tell it apart fae rain,would need an electron microscope.
Dew points at airport -2c so nae worries - many many hours to go. Its what happens when the main band gets here that will dictate all.
I think the report is automated....
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Same here Snowlover2, some piccys here from earlier today on The Braids Golf Course AKA snowbowl ...about 10 minutes up the road on the car from here.
Forgetting how cold it can be even on days like this I took a Mars bar out my jacket pocket. Sharing it out with By-Tor junior and his pal, it snapped in half like toffee.
I'm being greedy now and hoping that the cold spell can just about keep the resort open until next weekend so we can do it again !
I like your answer. Just been out sledging with kids and having snowball fights. Soooo much fun!!
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Everyone should just email their work now and say they're not going to be able to make it in !
Tuesday looking increasingly interesting followed by GFS out to here and Scotland retains cold uppers.
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Before LS even jumps in... Penicuik is a shoe-in for snaw tomorow. Ticks every box.
I am fairly confident Penicuik should have a all snow event, should be far enough inland and 180m asl should help. LS what do u think mate?
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Great minds think alike Scotster! Hopped up to Balerno last Sunday when it was damp light wouldnae-lie totally innefective snaw down here. Up there ... top end of Balerno - a different world. The 44 bus can transport you into another climatic zone just as you say.
Bottom line, I'm no gonnae greet if Leith is a damp slush-fest the morn - because even if it is, then the southern/inland/higher parts of Embra will be getting pasted !
Excellent point. After that wonderful Red snow warning event in Edinburgh in March 2010 there was nothing left in Gorgie by the morning, but I hopped on the 44 at Slateford Rd........travelled 25 minutes to Balerno......got off at the end of the reservoir road, put the snowshoes on and then had a deliriously sunny and snowy walk up to East Cairn and back.
It was another world. Enormous drifts, the vegetation and scrub was covered, and because it was all wind-blown it held my weight walking on top of the heather when usually you'd step through big heathery chasms. I even encountered one of the farmers from the south of the Pentlands on his snowmobile, looking for his sheep to dig them out.
Back to the bus stop, snowshoes tied to my rucksack......and 20 mins back to Gorgie. Sat at home that evening with a bronzed face, in a state of wonder at how I could have an arctic-like day in the hills via an Edinburgh bus. Amazing ease of access when the snow is down. Edinburgh's buses are wonderful. Who needs trams? Pah! (but that's another story
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Dalkeith has the height and inland-ness to catch it. So she should definitely avoid going to the post-office for her pension tomorrow !
Not feeling very optimistic just now
looking towards the 12z for some luck but I think it's more my wishful thinking.Also can I just ask about Snow potential for Midlothian round about Dalkeith/Bonnyrigg area as my elderly aunts lives there
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If this was the forums equivalent of Deal or No Deal, then I say "Deal" !
On the NAE this is as marginal as it gets before the end of Monday:
If this is really how marginal it gets before the end of Monday we're in for a treat.
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Remember an easterly event here in Feb 2009 (many other Kilters did well from that one by the way). Did nothing other than make London Road damp with a milimetre of patchy slush...5 minutes walk up Calton Hill (150-200 feet further up...) I was having a snowball fight with the youngster in proper snow.
So yes it can be bloody marginal here and I expect Leith to be least favoured. But all points south and west of LS term-time location at Pollock Halls should definitely be catching it. With all the caveats about DP's, uppers, intensity and all the rest having to be in favour of course !
i remember living in leith falling as sleet. got to princes street and everything white. bloody annoying
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absolutely Shuggee, And I never complain about that... even from a Leith IMBY view, basically means If I want to see Embra snaw then I just hope on a local bus to wherever it is.
Case in point, just back in here with the youngster after the 2nd day of sledging on the Braids. Only 10-15 minutes in the car from here and I'm in a bloody natural snowbowl !
The ppn starts late tonight with more favourable conditions near the coast, but yes daytime tomorrow I'm thinking Corstorphine, Oxgangs, Liberton will be having fun. Not ruling out a surprise though!
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can't speak for all other east coasties but I've been through a few Embra wet snow events that might be similar to this one (stress might, subject to nowcasting)
remember one in particular, walking across north bridge through horizontal driving wet snow, the stuff that sticks to the the sides of walls and lamp-posts and then slides and drips. Never the purest of snow events these kinds but IF that's how it turns out, then I'll take it ! south side of the city would accumulate it regardless.
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Thanks for that edodfc. It may well be marginal up and down the coastline ... even with all the things you highlighted looking just the right side of good, sea temps are always the one thing we can't do anything about ... its what... 7c water temp out in the North Sea more or less? Anyway I wouldn't care to say where the final snow/rain boundary might be on the coastal fringe, only nowcasting will tell us that.
Joe... from an Embra perpective I think there will be the usual dividing line within the city . Was up at the in-laws at Liberton yesterday and then up at The Braids (sledging with Mrs By-Tor and By-Tor junior). I left a thawing Leith but another two or three hundred feet away from immediate estuary warming/urban heat island, the snow was just great.
Finger in the air for Embra - assuming the basic forecast for snow moving northwards is correct - and that DPs/uppers are as you indicate ... would be for a wet snow event city wide. On the Embra coastal fringe, definitely sleetier. But rapidly as you move southwards back into the less coastal and higher parts of town then lying wet snow. If theres enough intensity for evaporative coooling and coastal DP's dont bleed into the city, then it will accumulate in most parts. And any wet snow accumulation is fine by me !
And Joe is right, if the flow is a bit south of east then that helps slightly in Embra kidding itself on that its a bit inland-ish !
I think slightly better than 60/40 chances in favour of Edinburger Kilters being happy this time tomorrow...
dew point ok
uppers probably ok
2m temp could be doing with being a degree or so cooler but as long as uppers and dew stay well on the favourable side then hopefully ok
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Hee hee, I've skiied in worse conditions than that many a time in Scotland, last Feb in Glencoe was a nightmare !
Might need to look as this before Monday by-tor....
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The only forecast that's going to matter on that event, is nowcasting right up the moment it starts, through to the minute it ends
That Norwegian site is saying rain for Edinburgh on Monday into Tuesday: http://www.yr.no/pla...land/Edinburgh/
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Aye good luck Catch, it's now going to be a straight fight between you and SS to report the highest Kilter snow totals in SE Scotland. Let battle commence !
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Definitely more "classic convective" on the radar (and darkly so in the sky from out my back window). heading from SE to NW and hitting east borders, east Lothian, fife, and points northwards from there. Avoiding Embra unless flow backs another few degrees.
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looking towards the 12z for some luck but I think it's more my wishful thinking.
Scotland Regional Discussion - Sunday 20th >>
in Regional
Posted
Ongoing lamppost snow in Leith, barely worth letting anyone know. Who cares !