Sunny Leith
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Posts posted by Sunny Leith
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Same here, currently have the heaviest light snaw we've had for days here. I can see Fife from the window though so its not going to accumulate to any worthwhile degree. Anyway, on and on and on the cold doth drag...
For the first time in quite a few days it's snow falling here rather than snizzle. Very light but proper flakes at least.
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Good shout HC...I'll go for irrational optimism and say somewhere in 10 days times on Thurs April 4th, maybe some deeply sheltered sunny spot in the west.
Nothing to support that ... other than this can't go on forever and the sun has power (given a chance) ... and by then I'll be desperate for this to end !
Is this CAP of dutch origin? They have a lot to answer for.
Sweepstake for when & where we'll get the next 10C in Scotland?
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Tiny snow grains blowing about as I got into work, enough to roll about about then dampen the pavement. Nothing to write home about and may not get much better than that over the next few days. At least a tiny bit of snaw in the air justifies the cold.
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It's no consolation to you NL but thanks for all the info on the science and practice of farming, for townies like me it really helps me understand how the weather can have so many varied and widespread negative impacts. I really hope this cold spring gives way soon, but these bloody charts are persistent...
Well I have seen the first winter crop casualty of this severe March cold Was out delivering some hay this afternoon and passed a field of oilseed rape which had had all its leaves completely stripped by starving pigeons This will put its growth back by a month and certainly knock its yield. Washed the salt laden car in the afternoon and icicles formed on the parts of it in the shade. Currently -1c. The wind chill of the past few days will have really lowered soil temperatures without insulating snow cover and it will take a long time for soil temperatures to recover.
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Will mean some serious depths in the gulleys though, will keep the hills snow-streaked for weeks to come.
The wind has blown most of the snow off the tops of the Pentland Hills as well: http://www.eastsidecottages.co.uk/webcam/
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Different type of cloud today, bit more cumulusy and the sun makes a fleeting appearance now and again.... Also seeing tiny snow blowing about in the wind again, so just possibly the start of a long-haul over the hours and days to something a bit more snow-showery.. Maybe!
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This is just wacky stuff. And its likely the next 24 hours will hardly continue to budge a degree either way. Amazing in its own way, just amazing...
Some shelter in the far west could take the edge off the cold as the week goes on by a degree or so, but it seems quite possible that many central and eastern areas could *fail* to get above 40F by this same time next Saturday. And beyond that...jeez, who knows when it'll subside...
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I don't know if we'll have the detailed historical data for comparison, but even if this March comes in at the 2nd or 3rd coldest relative to 1947, it would be fascinating to know the shape and distribution of it.
By which I mean, I'm assuming that 1947 was mostly early to mid-month following on from a very cold February. And that the 1947 average was dragged down by some very cold overnight lows. This cold is (relatively) mid to late March and hasn't (as yet) produced many notable lows (a few but not many). Average temperatures tell us one part of the story, but would be great to line-graph 1947 against 2013 and see "the shape of the month" for a few selected sites.
Even if it doesn't beat 1947 overall, it could still maybe come in at the coldest 2nd half of March on record. Anyway, fun to speculate...
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Looks like there's a slow and gradual backing of the flow to due east, plus or minus a few compass points. So going the right way at least... When does it get to ENE ? I dunno, but obviously we also want other signs that there's going to be some level of convective activity. As things stand though its like a snowless cousin of Dec 2010!
Note: personally I find it inconceivable that east-coast snow showers won't materialise over the coming days.
When are we likely to see the shift to a more ENE flow rather than the ESE we have at present, Sun/Mon?
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Aye good news & bad news if this kind of blocking persisted into summer. Would be a decent summer for many, central/west in particular but with my east coast hat on though I wouldn't appreciate June days of 9C, with the haar flooding down the Forth Estuary from a spring super-chilled North Sea. Think I might throw in the towel on independence and move to Portugal !
Ouch, it does very grim, especially after all the rain last year. I was rooting for cold for the record this month but to be honest my hope was always that the start of April would see a quick shift around to warm sunshine, because it is allegedly spring after all.
It's not all doom and gloom though, the latest CFS has above average temperatures and below average rainfall signalled for April as a whole so there could easily be a sudden switch around finally usher in springlike weather:
I would suggest also that the signs are that the current blocking pattern is likely to persist for the rest of spring and into summer, and because cold sourced easterlies will run out eventually once they flip we could end up with the rarity of a warm dry summer for the north of Scotland with a much better summer up here than in England:
Temperatures probably around to above average, with some really decent spell and some cooler spells mixed in from the north, but this pattern does seem to persist on a lot of long range outputs right through the summer, so barring the inevitable haar the outlook for summer at least is a more positive one that the short-medium range forecast.
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I'm not a skew-t heid either. But still mystified why we don't have a more general lake-effect up and down the coast in these situations. Can't be disimilar to what happens in The Great Lakes if and until they freeze over. Is the gradient between these Scandi uppers and North Sea sea-temperatures still insufficiently wide to create a similar lake effect ? What kind of gradient is required ? Just wondering !
Looks like on radar some light showers hanging around the coast, but certainly not a full on blast of convection.
Sat rep displays the situation well, lots of cold dry air pouring out of Scandi and a flat section of Sc across the country, the cloud streets this time arcing further North.
Attached a couple of Skew Ts - Dyce and Aboyne.
Am hopeless with these ones not enough practice deciphering them - so hopefully LS or Mr Pilot can tell you more, if the gist of this is both lines need to be closer together to create cloud tops then the green section at 800mb on the Dyce one indicates dry air or a cap on convection. Hopefully they can clarify or put me right.
Here is the ECM driven Meteogram for Aberdeen.
Accumulations or more prolonged showers further inland or at elevation according to the much maligned NAE 06z.
Grainy, graupel showers fizzed in on a brutal cold wind would be my guess !
Edit - add uppers -
Even the 950s are as cold as we might be looking for at the 850 level !!! -
Seems endless this cold. Today is identical to any number of recent days. Grey, baltic, tiny face-stinging snow flakes in the wind. Not that I take GFS as the gospel model but this easterly component is there through its entire next 2 weeks. If that holds true I will be screaming for April warmth!
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TOORP from Leith
OT but check this out from NE wales
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I haven't given up on snow locally in the next 48-72 hours or more. These cold uppers looks like they'll be hanging about and if the flow was to back sufficiently eastwards and northwards then could stil see something happening here. or Not !
The pictures on the NW thread of feet of snow down in Englandshire (and even coastal northwest Englandshire) are pretty gutting to be honest, given most of us haven't managed a depth greater than 4-5 inches this winter. The frequency and longevity of the cold and snow has been amazing but given the number of times we've had things looking very good it's just a bit disappointing that so far there's been nothing on a par with December 2010 depth wise and not even March 2006 levels yet for either Fife or Edinburgh.
Probably would've looked better if I'd been in Freuchie the whole time given the number of 2-4 inch snowfalls they've managed to eek out but Edinburgh seems to be a rather barren place for snowfall, if not for cold biting winds
The wind direction hasn't helped either, with it being mostly south of east with it too dry or due east with uppers just slightly too high. Anyway, this winter still beats every single one before 2009/10 that I can remember hands down so there's no point being too downhearted about it, consistently cold with frequent snow.
I realise how ridiculous much of this post looks next to Catch's video diary from his road trip across Siberia
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Classic ice-road truckers there Catch...
I'll get the longer vid up later, it will take forever to load. This is a normal road I'm driving on, one lane each way and of average width:
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Still is, the radar often lies !
What did we all do before precipitation radars? Was it really just lamp posts??
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Hee-haw here after some stuff blowing in the wind earlier. Mini-TOORP from me, as despite being in the east - and the source of the cold coming from the east - we've contrived to avoid decent snow that has happened to the north, west and south of us during the week. I give up !
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It almost defies belief that we're looking at another 5, 6 days of this cold at this same type of level. But that's the way its looking isn't it... Like I say, happy to give March its shot at the record-books but after that I want this cold GONE !
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Just hasn't got the rustic charm of an LS map has it ...
A new snowfall prediction map from the Met Office
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Think whats been slightly unusual about this kind of cold - and we've had a few spells like it this winter, has been how often we've had several days in a row with little or no frost , but with the temperature almost static in the low-middish 30's range.
Could be bracing if accompanied by some blue skies, but a bit bloody grim under steely-grey skies.
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Lets not forget, METO are crap at precipitation forecasts for Scottish east-coast in easterlies. I'd basically ignore anything they say in that context !
I know. Local forecast is now 'wintry showers'. Ah well....wait and see. With -12c uppers pushing in I'd expect something unless we maintain cloud cover which at the minute looks quite likely.
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Looks like over the next day or two the flow will back more east, hopefully a shade north of that. Frustrating though, the cold is very much in place ... need other factors to play out though as usual for snaw.
Happy to go with the cold until midnight end of March 31st, after that I want to be done with it. Long daylight hours but with January-type cold really messes with the heid...
I think this will be the issue unfortunately, plus the feed is SE'ly. My guess right now is Embra will be predominantly dry, cold and grey this weekend, sound familiar!
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Frontal alignment ... honestly who knows, it could be 100 miles and more out on the day relative to current speculation. Fun as always though to wonder about the ifs, buts and maybes !
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Can vary I guess. Seen snow lying about in the shade for a few days even in April in urban Leith near me (in tree-shaded north facing side of London Road/Royal Terrace Gardens). As long as the sun doesn't get to it, and all other temperature, wind factors are in favour, then it can sit there for days.
I'm amazed at how much cover persists here from the snow earlier this week. Mostly gone from hard surfaces but back garden still about 95% cover. The front is about 75%. Depth has decreased obviously but March snow is meant to be gone by lunchtime right?
Scotland - Alba Regional Discussion 20/03/13 21z ------>
in Regional
Posted
Aye, just looked out the windae and Leith has gone a wee bit white this last 10-15 minutes or so and still snawin.
Took the words right out my mouth there LS, "heavy light snaw" characterises it perfectly.