nsrobins
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Posts posted by nsrobins
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Not much to add in postscript.
It has been the theme of this season - set-ups that look classic for tornadic supercells end up delivering a mush-fest of wind and hail. The instability was not in question here, but the directional shear was marginal and cells needed to tap into a boundary to utilise any additional shear was on offer and it didn't happen.
At one point a chaser drove past a field of wind turbines and said 'they should turn those on to get these things spinning'.Still, another notch in the 'tornadic totum pole' of experience lol.
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Quality HD stream from Brett Adair just now. Cell looks very likely.
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Cape values are already 4.5-5K in the region.
The gun is primed and the trigger is about to be released - insane instability will be unleashed very shortly as the last of the CIN erodes.
I like the fact SPC have now adjusted back North as per my previous thoughts. Surface obs show the OFB fairly nicely - more of a front actually looking at dps from SW to NE across IL. Any cell riding this boundary ESEwards will tap into locally enhanced helicity that threatens a strong tornado. Later this evening the wind threat takes over and a damaging derecho could well develop. -
is that 20.30 US time mate
That will be 21.30 BST. All charts and official data is normally quoted in universal or Zulu time (GMT).
I see skies have cleared nicely now in the target zone and heating is taking place. Given such a rich unstable environment initiation will occur in about three hours, although some cells have already developed in N MO and these will drift east slowly.
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I have no reputation for identifying storm initiation but am hoping to acquire one through this escapade (sic. Red Dwarf).
Storm mode sig supercells initiating on OFB in wake of earlier MCS in a line Joliet, IL to Lafayette, IN from 20.30Z this afternoon.
Potential for long-track tornado it the cell roots to the boundary.
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Well what do I know?! SPC update has shifted the risk area SOUTH and Chicago Metro now only Slight zone.
These guys know what they're doing for sure but they must be totally dismissing the HRRR and NAM4K ppn output.
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Would that be the first of the year if it did go to HIGH
According to SPC archive there have been no HIGH risk days so far 2015. The last HIGH risk was 3rd June 2014. There have also been no PDS issued in 2015 as far as I know. Am happy to be corrected.
Anyway, hasn't happened yet but don't be surprised in an upgrade is considered for this evening.
The next SPC output is due 13.00Z. Given another HRRR run showing cells on the very N boundary of the current MDT risk, an adjustment north in area is likely to include the whole Chicago metro region.
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HRRR has shifted the greatest sig supercell risk north towards the Chicago metro area from 21Z, plonking a discrete cell right over Chicago itself.
This is being closely monitored I would think, and should parameters consolidate in the next few runs I wouldn't be surprised to see a conditional HIGH risk being introduced given the population density at threat.
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Some detail now on spatial distribution of risk for Monday with SPC pinning a 10% hatched over most of IL. The instability can't be doubted (some output has in excess of 5K worth max cape by 20Z), but there is no definitive tor level shear that I can see (edit: always check before posting. There is infact a decent 500mb flow over backed surface central IL) but I think what's driving the risk is finer mesoscale level (OFBs) so if I was chasing I'd be watching the MCS and the associated outflow. Still the Potential exists tonight for a few strong tornados
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Two dates carved in stone for the next few years - A two-week Midwest chase 2016 and then the big one - a total eclipse US tour 2017.
Live the dream!
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An unseasonably moist and unstable set-up looks likely to develop from IA east and south through Monday - Wednesday next week. All severe threats including significant tornados are likely.
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Interesting situation in next few hours as a line of tornadic supercells bears down on the St Louis Metro area. Parameters could maintain their discrete nature until they threaten St Louis, or else they could well line out with attendant SLW threat. Either way a severe weather risk continues through 02Z Mon.
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A warm welcome home to the Netweather chasers after a fantastic roller coaster season. Floods, hail, tornados, lightning, thousands of miles and even the Northern lights have entertained us for the last seven weeks or so. A big thank you from me for sharing your stories, and even allowing me to catch you up on a couple of occasions. The bonus shelf cloud and nocturnal tornado we shared together near Colby, KS was one of the highlights of my chase.
Roll on 2016 😎
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Fortunately for residents around the Lakes a less severe evening than many models forecast.
Another one for the 'wasn't it, didn't it' scrapbook
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Still balanced this evening in the SE WI and N IL metro area for potential strong tornados.
The ingredients are there but confidence in the timings coming together is low hence SPC are holding an upgrade in risk for a few more hours.Regardless the environment behind the MCS complex that will move W to E over the region by early afternoon is modelled to become explosively unstable with 5000+ CAPE available under a screaming 80kn W 500mb jet and a SSE surface inflow. EHI values of 8+.
Should monitor obs later as the tornado risk will be linked to the backing surface flow IMO which in turn will be dictated by the surface low and trailing CF position. We might be in a position that tornados (waterspouts) develop over the lake itself.
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The 12Z NAM today if anything increases the chances of violent long-track tornados in S WI and N IL Mon afternoon. Some of the highest EHI and SRH values (bulk shear 70kn) this season anywhere in an impressively unstable environment must surely be a concern for the metro areas of Milwaukee and Chicago.
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I might look at this in more detail later once Fathers Day duties are over. 00Z NAM places some upper wind profiles over the region, which would put metro areas including Chicago at risk IMO from a strong tornado Mon pm
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If the team is in the same region there appears to be a greater chance of activity in W SD in the next few hours, as evident with the cell that has developed near Buffalo, SD in the last hour.
Structure and the odd tornado cant be ruled out. -
Some sort of severe end regional event is likely in the Great Lakes region of WI and IL on Monday afternoon, with an SPC Enhanced at 3 days (quite rare).
The usual model spread exists but the general pattern with a very strong upper WNW flow overriding high CAPE would promote rotating supercells in the deep layers with attendant tornado probabilities.Worth keeping an eye on if you're into late season virtual chasing.
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not many chasers tonight on tvn with a MDT
The MDT was raised for enhanced winds, in association with the bowing MCS that is currently racing across north IA and MN. 90mph+ wind gusts being reported.
Not all categorical risks are for tornados.
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Powder keg instability in target area. Meso shows nearly 3500 max CAPE over Gillette, WY and effective shear up to 60kn.
I would expect cells to explode over the far NE WY in next half hour and grow upscale later into a mean beast of a bowing MCS. -
I don't think you're far off the right area today with a shift North into W central SD or maybe over into far NE WY.
The highlight of the parameters has to be directional shear, with it maxed out at 180deg between the surface and 700mb according to the hodo near Newell, SD at 22Z. Yes weakfish flow at the surface but pretty decent at 500mb which probably accounts for the concern in a fast-moving bow/derecho later with attendant damaging winds.
Tornado chances fairly decent early on IMO in target area (Spearfish/Newell SD) and HRRR pops up a cell at 21Z near to Devil's Tower, WY -
It's tended to be the same the last couple of years. The later tours seem to generate less interest on here & we hear much less of them. I suppose, generally the areas travelled don't lend themselves to live streaming & seeing less of the action, we don't feel nearly as involved as with the earlier more Southerly based chasing, as a result, the team seem to interact less with we followers & it becomes a sort of circle of apathy.
I acknowledge your point, but if you can see through the inevitable technical issues the chasing and terrain up in the central and high plains is some of the best there is IMO. The workaround for the virtual chaser is to use a combination of the NW info flow and some of the other live feeds available (TVN, ChaserTV for instance), and on active days embed the live news channels who regularly break in to schedules to stream storm coverage.
I think the term 'apathy' is more perspective than subjective.
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Neil, I don't think they are near Lamar, the cloaking device is switched on at the moment.
That's what happens when you spend too much time with Cling-ons
Slight risk E NE/W IA 8th Aug
in Storm Chase USA
Posted · Edited by nsrobins
A potential in far E NE this evening for the odd strong tornado - might be worth monitoring as an alternative to Sat night TV 😉
If I was to pin a likely location for a tornado or two if say Lincoln to Nebraska City, NE area.