nsrobins
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Posts posted by nsrobins
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Risk of upslope structure today coupled with chances tomorrow will also see us hauling over to the TX Panhandle today.
I'll probably aim to be in Dalhart, TX by 22Z. Nice chance to test the equipment and see if my strong Colombian blend with hazelnut shot has changed this last year!
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Despite fairly meagre moisture remaining in the Midwest region I can see two days for upslope chances Sun and Mon. In fact you can get some awesome structure with these LP elevated storms so once we're settled in we'll be targeting the TX Panhandle Sunday and the TX/NM border around Clovis south for Monday.
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For live coverage with multiple feeds and data:
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It's going to be a long night. Cell near Altus already has a couplet and tight Meso.
Be safe and please be careful on the roads - the chaser clutter is going to be ridiculous.
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I'll be over Sat afternoon for two weeks
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Next week starts quiet then ends well according to GFS. The models in the US are as prone to misleading us as they are in W Europe at the 120hr + range it must be said.
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Sounding for Canadian 00Z Weds. Serious helicity just east of DL in 70+ dps.
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1 hour ago, Dorsetbred said:
Good starting point, I have a feeling I would kick off the day somewhere between Shamrock & Canadian, along route 80..
Canadian is good - The Old Cattle Exchange serves as good a pepper steak as you'll likely to get this side of Amarillo
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If I may be obliged I'll start this one for today's likely severe threat - the highest risk so far of classic DL activity.
RAP places over 4K of CAPE under a lid which will break around 23Z as the sharp DL bulges into the E TX panhandle. Combination of soundings (impressive shear) and composite radar puts me around Memphis to Headley, TX for the coffee stop and check of conditions.
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GFS now firming up on the pattern from Sat 20th. I think the weekend looks quiet with a ridge moving east but Monday onwards should see rich moisture return North bringing several rounds of severe into next week.
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Cheers Paul - always plenty to do on down days.
Where exactly is the Twistex memorial?
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KAMA sweep picking up a decent broad rotation on the Matador cell at all levels.
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Tornado watch imminent. The detail includes a reference to the very cold tops to the hail layer. I hope you've got your hail helmets ready!
Could be a 'cracking' start to the tour.
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Based on a hunch the current crap will throw an OFB in its wake, I'm thinking a shuffle to the Hollis/Gould area in time for afternoon tea.
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Paducah/Childress on the Caprock apron for me later. Let the games begin.
now go to sleep lol
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I will take what I'm seeing for the 19th - 25th May at the moment - high E Conus and a nice feed into the Midwest from the Gulf. Decent looking upper jet too.
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Interestingly another potential set up which failed to produce. This seems to be a theme this year.
So we go into a week now of an amplified pattern with a ridge of death over the central conus. Later on the moisture will return a troughing emerges from the desert so I see activity increasing from around the 10th May.
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This afternoon might be one of those 'everything clicks' events for LA and west MS. Should an MCS develop midday and move east above a returning moisture stream, the OFB will trigger substantial convection in the rich environment close to the gulf coast. I would certainly make the trip across from TX if I was on my tour today.
I suspect upgrades in outlook will be considered
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Some easing of the active pattern going into this week with more robust moisture returning into week two of May but too early to be specific for Tour 1. The period 5th to 9th May looks quite ridgy so I'm glad I've gone for the late May option again this year.
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19th April: Initiation imminent in a narrow zone of SW NE just below the warm front shown on mesoanalysis in next few hours. Quite impressive directional shear in that area actually according to RAP.
The season keeps producing - will it continue into May?
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Hi
Can anyone offer advice on how to stream live independently of the mainstream hosting sites? I've been looking at Severestudios but find it quite clunky. How do NW place their GPS marker on a map with radar overlay? Is there simple code for this?
cheers
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Portions of the current MDT risk area bring primed for upgrade to HIGH risk next hour as it appears models have underestimated the PWT influx (dry bias).
A long night to come for Dixie Alley.
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41 minutes ago, Stuart_W said:
I applied yesterday (Sunday). Not been accepted yet!
I got my authorisation 48hrs after application.
Check again tomorrow.
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Not looking too good for Alexandria.
Stormchase 2017 - Chase Day 14 - Slight Risk (TX/NM)
in Storm Chase USA
Posted
Hi Paul.
We are in Brownfield and aiming for Seminole to intercept the southern cells of the upslope line now forming into NM.