nsrobins
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Posts posted by nsrobins
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Increased tor chances given current synoptics.
I'd be on the 285 between Pecos and Carlsbad.
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Very photogenic that area - dusty spin ups possible as cells mature and drop east of the Carlsbad area.
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20 minutes ago, mikeofmacc said:
I'm not massively in the know about the forecasting here, but I've been watching the MLCAPE map for the last week or so. So am I right in thinking the first few days generally look to be best South and West of DFW, and the around 21st there seems to be massive CAPE from North to South, indicating this high moisture?
Yep more or less right. Substantive severe parameters not available on GFS so detail vague but get one ingredient in - moisture and hence energy - and you've got a chance.
By Weds next week will have more of an idea whether it will be days in museums and pools, or preferably big chase days with action galore.
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'When you used to tell me you chase tornados, deep down I thought it was just a metaphor' (;
Can't believe it's been 20 years lol
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Still looking tasty for w/b 21st May with GFS continuing to place a broad scale pattern that would see rich moisture return into the central plains ahead of an upper low.
Way too early for detail but the pattern looks good. I shall be in the field from 22nd.
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Meagre offerings today but the upslope regime in SE CO may offer a picturesque opportunity.
Slightly more substantial risk in E NM, SW TX but this is a long trip from the current overnight location.
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I actually quite like the TX panhandle at the trailing end of the CF. HRRR breaks out a few discrete cells from 21Z in the right side of marginal tor parameters. The main CF in KS will produce lightning and hail though for sure.
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Quiet today, with the primary action way back East.
I can see an outside chance of a cell firing in Central TX ahead of the almost stationary CF boundary, but it's probably not going to do much.
Que the EF4 wedge lol
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Quite a conditional risk today with only moderate directional shear and the modification of moisture from ongoing ppn, but given the astonishing events of Monday I wouldn't rule out an OFB induced tornado before it all goes messy.
I might shuffle down to the Chickasha, OK area for initial target for no other reason than I like saying 'Chickasha' (;
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Nice footage.
Post-analysis and the message here is 'never underestimate the power of a decent OFB'.
HRRR was spot-on when late in the day it picked-up on discrete cells down the I35 triggered in lieu of the DL but given some local helicity (significant in the case of the Pauls Valley cell) by an OFB that popped-up a few hours before initiation.
Nice job on the hunch - I'd be nearer the AR line wondering what the hell happened!
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DL surging east - now Woodward.
Still considerable disparity between the high-res models in initiation, but a 10% hatched tor risk would favour firing by 21Z with cell motion 35-40mph ENE with the area favouring rotating storms still on the OK/AR line.
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Interestingly the 15Z HRRR drops the cells from the composite in SE OK.
Might be a decent call to go for the long shot on the I35 N of OKC - at least some decent moisture has pushed up into that region in the last few hours. -
Update: this looks like bring a decent day and I'm still looking at the OK/AR line around DeQueen, AR.
This should be achievable from the teams current location in Enid, monitoring for obs and OFBs during the shift east. Surface dps currently on the way into the area of >18C, so bases will be lower than recent days. No inhibition to speak of after 20Z.
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Two potential targets today - off the DL just East of the I35 corridor and towards Indian Territory and a second area on the OK/AR line in Cabin Fever country.
The later target has issues with topography but has higher EHI hence tornadic potential. The former target DL cells are likely to be more discrete and in better territory but the hodos look less favourable for tornadogenesis to me.I might go for the further east target and then drop back West if its slow to get going. The area chosen is more open than most of W AR and provides a corridor to chase E into AR.
Target between Smithville, OK and DeQueen, AREdit: The 07Z RAP puts a decent discrete cell over Ada, OK at 21Z in an interesting bubble of enhanced shear parameters. Might be worth considering during the coffee stop. PS: Virtual in UK until 21/5/16 then chasing for two weeks
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4 hours ago, Paul Sherman said:
You out this year Neil ?
Hi Paul and all your team and guests
Yep out 21st May to 2nd June with my youngest daughter along for the ride.
No doubt we'll bump into each other on some hail swept road somewhere.
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Quite like the area around Coldwater near the KS/OK line. Dp returns not far off modelled at present and RAP fires a cell in this area at 21Z
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Yep classic looking Denver Cyclone/DL set up with better moisture return.
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This is a great shame. I know they had tech issues on Tues, and I sincerely hope they didn't get overly criticised for it.
It will be greatly missed by virtual chasers and those in the field alike - the alternatives were never as good IMO
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2 hours ago, Nick F said:
The shear profiles really didn't help yesterday's cause, good explanation of why the high probabilities for tornadoes issued by SPC in their PDS warning didn't materialise I read here:
https://www.facebook.com/TornadoTitans/?ref=stream
Friday's risk over the southern Plains worth keeping tabs on, may turn out a better day for chasers than yesterday's hyperbole for tornado potential. Oklahoma looks prime spot looking NAM parameters.
Indeed. It's a testimony to the fact that even on very promising days one of the dozens of parameters that contribute to the situation will put a dampener on the good potential of others. I didn't really buy into the hype principally because of the profiles as you point out. If you fish around enough you'll find a nice loopy hodo but in general the directional shear just didn't look 'big day' anywhere down the DL. Better near the triple point but over-complex OFBs sort of negatively destroyed each other leaving a crappy mess after an hour or so.
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Epic bust. The DL puppies didn't get going at all, probably due to insufficient speed flow at 700mb (modelled I have to say), and the TP/WF cells got pretty much destroyed by too many OFB and subtle CVZs that sort of phased each other out. If they didn't perform in the first half hour of their lifecycle then it was all over.
Note to oneself - pay attention to the models and take more notice of the negatives!
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I'm sticking to my previous target of Lebanon, KS. I'm liking the slightly more favourable H500 flow as per RAP and I think the I70 corridor west of Salina will be the focus of pre-dark activity.
Hard hats packed though - with high end lapse rates the hail could be seriously big!
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I'm starting a dedicated thread to today if that's ok - it makes multiple day events easier to follow.
Potentially big day today with all hazards possible. The lapse rates are very high favouring giant hail - wouldn't be surprised by reports of gorilla hail in the largest storms. To me tor risk is highest in N KS close to the TP but await obs before chosing my virtual target.
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I'm not seeing a major event Tues 26th but some parameters favour a strong tornado or two. Although the trough is indeed sharply negatively tilted on the NAM this morning their seems to be a 'de-coupling' between the primary factors, especially highest SRH and lowest or earlier erosion of CIN. Cape and moisture not a problem.
If I was to go for an early target I'd be looking at the KS/NE line somewhere around Lebanon, KS.
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8 hours ago, Nick L said:
I got £580 LHR-DFW in Nov, but then had to pay £120 to change the dates to accommodate more chase time!
My mate got £360 for LHR-ATL-DFW just before Christmas, absolute bargain.
Yep that's a corker!
I got a scanner alert an hour ago - LHR to Copenhagen to Washington to Dallas £607
Very tempted - the return via Chicago is a 7hr layover and I've always wanted to do the Sears Tower!
Chase Day 10 - ENH risk TX/OK/KS
in Storm Chase USA
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I'd like to add CO because I think SPC are too East with their enhanced region. NAM 4k and RAP have initiation in far SE CO on the DL and TP. Better kinematics exist just east into the OK panhandle so the first supercell that stays rooted and drops into this richer environment will likely produce a tornado.
Early target Guymon, OK