nsrobins
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Posts posted by nsrobins
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Yesterday's activity had cleaned out the moisture in this area but we are shuffling down to Clovis, NM to catch some upslope before looking at risk tomorrow W TX.
The NW team may have more chance further S today.
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Tried to get into the TX panhandle but a trek too far today, but did capture some wicked mammatus near Richfield, KS:
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Starting in Sidney, NE so targeting the DL subtle OFB around Scott City, KS
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I assume Sat is changeover day and Tour 3 starts tomorrow. I'm currently in SW South Dakota visiting Mt Rushmore and I had Monday's risk up here in mind BUT latest NAM4 has caught my eye for OK panhandle. I'll check again in a few hours but some potential for sure and a back-breaking relocation tonight may be in order.
Could be a good start to T3 though
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Currently Elsworth, KS with all road options.
SPC now MDT with 15% hatched tor.
A wedge crap shoot likely today
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NW team S of Chapman - hope they're safe
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We are 2 miles SW of Chapman. Big debris ball signature - it's unfortunately hit something. Also watching multiple areas of updraft scud right down the inflow tail.
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Big wedge - just outside Solomon, KS
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McPherson under AgCu field. This side of the DL is really humid now.
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Not much on offer today but something has caught my eye viewing the 13Z suite that may be worth a shot given the the team's current position at DDC. A significant dry bulge is extending into SW KS but higher dps remain in N KS, creating an E-W oriented 'pseudo' dryline. Given better backed flow here if anything breaks the inhibition it could prove interesting. Given potential in far N KS Thurs it's worth a go - and the only other target would be a hike to NC TX
Just for today I'll be mostly targeting Russel, KS on the I70
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Chased the Dodge City storm with the NetWx team. Amazing structure and three tornados together briefly. Chaser convergence was insane! Will try to find a video grab in the morning. Here's a still from it at its height:
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Hi guys. It's all about the OFB today. I'd earlier looked at Higgins, but latest vis sat indicates intersection of OFB and DL more likely further west central OK panhandle. Heading up to Booker.
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Targeted DL around Ralls, TX as we were too late on my original target of Canadian. Let an impressive outflow dust storm pass over with 70mph SLW then followed a cell all the way round and back to Peduca where we watched a nice wall cloud backlit by lightning.
Good first day tech practice and we found a way to broadcast a LAN from the standard VZ pantech mifi dongle to run iPhones on the mifi signal.
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Great work guys! We've arrived Comfort Inn, Grapevine and after tech set-up in the morning will be targeting the DL around Canadian, TX in the afternoon.
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The two primary areas of interest for Sunday (main day start of a 5 day severe spell) are SW SD and W NE up north and TX/OK panhandles down south.
Merits in both, but given latest NAM4k and the fact I can't physically get to the Northern target I prefer the DL/?OFB play Guymon to Amarillo. A nice little DL bulge, LCLs <500 just east of it and EHI bullseye should generate at least moderate tornadic risk.
Big caveats of course, especially the influence of early day crudvection but we'll be aiming to kit out and shift West by 9.30am local for the haul from Dallas to Clyde County.
And all this from my free wifi hotspot in Copenhagen airport!
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Maybe NE not necessary for Sunday. Latest NAM focuses tor parameters around DDC.
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1 hour ago, Paul Sherman said:
Not even entertaining it Neil
We are heading northbound today should be some storms in Eastern Wyoming tomorrow before and expected Slight Risk comes in for Saturday up in the Dakotas/Montana, then back down to Nebraska for Sunday and then the big multiple days in Oklahoma Monday and Tuesday
Indeed - which is why I was a bit tongue in cheek with the suggestion.
What are you thoughts on the potential big DL days Mon - Weds next week? -
Tor chances upped in far SE TX - anyone fancy a swim
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29 minutes ago, weather09 said:
GFS modeling is quite something for the first half of next week, particularly Tues/Weds. MLCAPE values in excess of 5000J/kg over central/southern plains, with sfc dewpoints hitting the mid-70s. This being overlapped by strong westerly mid-level jet... Potential for high-end severe period indeed.
Yes and the reason I was very surprised by some of the downbeat comments by respected chasers on StormTrack the other day.
I would expect some posts to appear in the next day or so highlighting the risk.-
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I hope you guys are enjoying the 'bedding-in' as you scoot around Texas.
A reasonable chance today of action in SE TX and I'd look at the Austin/San Antonio area where EHI is maximised. If it doesn't work you could take in The Alamo tomorrow which is good value IMO.Make the most of it - it all ramps up big time from the weekend. The models have been consistent with projecting a substantial deep moisture return and a quasi-stationary upper trough draped through Colorado to NM, with a DL inspired multi-day severe outbreak from Sunday to mid week, with Monday now in NAM range and looking 'high end' in the TX/OK Panhandles.
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The question is - how far North is North from Saturday in a potential four day stormfest.
My take on Sunday is W NE/ NW KS then KS/OK Monday but on Sunday I swap virtual for real so it's all about the money shot from this weekend lol.
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It would be fair to say severe end potential looks limited from Wednesday to Saturday this week, with a substantial ridge of high pressure in place from the Lakes to the Eastern GOM. As this recedes, and the upper trough begins to become more influencial, and with plenty of moisture set to return North, it looks promising for the weekend going into next week.
Chasers may have to shift their attentions further North though up into KS/NE but this isn't unusual late May.I don't agree with a few commentators on StormTrack who are saying the season is over. Nonsense in my opinion (and I'm a bit biased it has to be said lol)
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I still like the Guymon area and I'm virtually prepping to head that way once breakfast is done.
SRH really cranks up here and down to the TX line so hopefully a rooted cell can drop into it and ingest the richer low level moisture.
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I can see you Chris! I'm sticking to an initial target Guymon to Elkhart right in the KS/CO/OK corner.
I'm not expecting meso development until they roll into the OK Panhandle but I like to be on their tails as they develop rather than waiting for them to arrive. Also I'd be ready to drop South as the tail enders stand a better chance once the 850mb wind fields strengthen.
That area is pretty much perfect chasing terrain - maybe a few more roads wold be good though.
Chase Days 25 & 26 - Heading North WAY North!
in Storm Chase USA
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All the best guys with the mammoth journey. We're on the breakdown session now ready for the trip home early Thurs. It was no coincidence that we came across you on THAT day south of Dodge City (was it 4 or 8 tornados on that storm - I lost count lol). And to answer your question Mr Sherman, no it can't be too hot to produce tornados