nsrobins
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Posts posted by nsrobins
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Historically, and supported by the statistical based models, hurricanes that deepen rapidly tend to bias to the right side of the track envelope which would account for some of the uncertainty.
Given the blend of solutions with regards the upper ridge in 5 days forecast to develop near Bermuda, I’d say there’s a better than average chance of a high end hurricane impacting the coast between FL and NC next Weds/Thurs and I’m looking at options to intercept, but will leave it until Monday.
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Decent risk in N Dakota tomorrow but I worry about the predominance of HP cells skunking out the potential. On soundings alone I’d look at far N central Dakota - have you got your passports?
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Confirmed tornado numbers (CONUS) for May 2018 are 118, compared to the ten yr average of 306 (2001-2011). Not an all time low but not far off it. Five of the above were the brief twin landspouts near Cove, CO.
Finding a tornado this season has been a struggle for sure.
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Not a bad call if you can hack the drive. I actually think SPC are underdoing the potential in C/E NM tomorrow with a 50kn at 500mb streak and enough moisture (less required in upslope regime) to play with. Expect a category upgrade in next or morning update.
Will wait for later CAM runs before considering the trip myself but as we’ll be looking at W TX anyway for Monday it might be worth a shout. 500 miles - no problem!
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Loaded gun/CF day today. Positioning in Mullen, NE for 20Z initiation ready to move east. Composites on the southern end of the frontal line rapidly improve towards 23Z in a nose of 70+ dps. Focussing on timelapse of convection if I can get my position right. Tricky today though with sparse road options up in the Sandhills.
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We chased the OK Panhandle yesterday and are not in position for the (HRRR) cells in NE KS today. Heading North for central NE cold front risk tomorrow then scouring clears the Plains for a few days.
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Structure fest today for us on the long lasting cyclic supercell that moved slowly between Englewood and Waynoka. Some deviant right moves kept us on our toes. Great opportunities for some more 4K time lapse. Here’s a quick structure snap:
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I’ll start a thread for today - could be a discrete supercell S KS in decent parameters this afternoon. Have located ourselves in Minneola, KS on W edge of the clear slot and spreads are already 82/66 here. Ready to move.
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Hi Paul
Stuck to my convictions today and got on the Cope supercell as it was forming. The twin translucent land spout tornados a big highlight (as was escaping the eastward shift of the hail core dodging hundreds of chase commuters )
On to tomorrow.
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The NWx team maxed out yesterday in S WY - nice work guys. We couldn’t get onto the twilight Burlington tor so are camped in Colby KS.
Today is another witches brew of parameters but I have my eye (on late HRRR data) on the really sharp DL intrusion across the KS line around the Sheridan Lake to Sharon Springs line. Not too interested in SE WY again so hopefully that won’t come back to bite me like it did yesterday.
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Goodland, KS. Dps already 65F here which is way above modelled and a really decent SE surface wind. Still think initial sweet spot is far NE CO so we’re shifting to Burlington, CO shortly to re-assess.
To avoid confusion we are not part of the NWx team but we’re normally not too far from each other.
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Off topic, this is from the SPC for Florida today:
‘supporting a threat for mini supercells ‘
Oh dear - the degenerative ‘mini’ disease is spreading into high places
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I’ll kick this one into life as I’m up early to get the 300miles into position. Initiation likely quite early today with virtually no CIN on the upslope shelf of far NE CO around 20Z. A discrete storm surviving until 22Z may take advantage of a decent 850mb flow that develops far SW NE (according to HRRR) so good structure is possible. Tor risk limited by high spreads (low dp - 53F is the best I can find), but you never know.
Our conditions update target: St Francis, KS
Edit: dps already 55F in target area so maybe HRRR being a little tight on it’s values
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At last something decent appearing with respect 500mb flow with 45kn + for NE CO and the NE panhandle tomorrow.
We are heading N from our first night base in DFW eating miles to be in range for Sun pm. XM056 Country Highway on max!
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Great work - love the structure.
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Better news for the start of Tour 3. The last four or so runs of GFS have largely dropped the ridge/slack gradient signal for something more conducive to the moisture transport and wind vectors needed for severe convection. Let’s see how it pans out, but I’m sure opportunities will crop up into early June.
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From latest 4-8dy SPC outlook:
...DISCUSSION... Uncharacteristically weak flow regime, for mid May, is expected to persist this week across most of the CONUS. As a result, severe predictability will necessarily be low during the day4-8 time frame.
Sums up the situation rather well. The lack of decent upper wind profiles means you’re relying on marginal moisture return and a moderate diurnal LLJ which makes chasing storms something of a challenge at the moment.
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There’s a fairly persistant signal now for a ridge to scour the moisture from the plains between 28th May and 1st June. It seems to quickly recover though but this really is in long range territory.
We fly on the 25th so maybe a few days action before the calm descends.
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I think it’s day 9 - lost track a bit.
If the first tour is still active the Denver CVZ might be a play today given a surface low has already started to form according to meso.
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Looking a bit ‘ridgy’ again from the 23rd but I’m sure there’ll be opportunities.
We’ve also got a trip to Wyoming planned if there’s a three day drop-out.
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We might have a tropical system to deal with across the SE from the 27th May - it’s a fairly persistent signal.
How far is Florida from Dallas?
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11 hours ago, Nick L said:
Can you guys point to the increase in severe potential in the models? I'm sorry but I'm really not seeing it! The optimism I had last week has evaporated. The jet profile continues to look garbage.
The range 12-15 days is waxing and waning with regard severe potential but I guess this is typical. Only yesterday the period 22nd-27th May was looking very good but this morning we have a E GOM low that cuts the moisture feed.
The bottom line is it doesn’t matter a jot what the models say until the afternoon I get to DFW - then I really get interested!
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I remember that Amarillo storm - it was a prolific lightning producer.
The longer range for T2 has improved again after taking a swing towards ridging. Some of the charts (GFS) for 23-28th May look very tasty again. I love a late May DL/WF setup with insane CAPE
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I think you did pretty well to get on THE storm of the evening without worrying about the quality of the stream.
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Hurricane Florence
in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide
Posted
NHC hold the ECM tropical product in high regard and it contributes a fair weight to the official NHC track guidance so yes it’s an interesting few days coming up. Of course we’re still very much in the guess range but you get a feeling this is in full ramp preparation mode and could be a big story by early next week.