The Enforcer

January 5

I wonder how much of the average monthly totals for January has fallen in the first 4 days of the month?

January 5

8 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

It only goes out 8 days, which isn't quite far enough for the period of most interest... here are the 6z T850s for my south coast location...

Outside the range of MOGREPS is a little red flag in itself.

January 5

GEFS06z P15 is a decent run until 12th when the HP gets pushed south-eastwards:

Fortunately, there are plenty of outputs left for that to correct in a more favourable direction.

January 5

11 hours of rain yesterday leading to dozens of local road closures and the forecasted sunny day today is filled with cloud.

January 5

Please not GEFS18z P29:

Cold rain and more flooding.

January 5

There's a 2m temperature range of 8C for London on 15th, which illustrates how volatile the situation is at that range:

That being said, the highest temperature is only 6C, so certainly couldn't be described as mild.

January 4

It was already flooded around here and now we get this:

Honestly, this place is such a rain magnet.

January 4

2 minutes ago, MJB said:

what do the other 32 suggest ?

You can find them in other posts.

January 4

GEFS12z P01 and P10 are two examples of profiles that stop cold weather taking hold beyond Week 1:

I would be pleased to see such options removed in forthcoming outputs.

January 4

43 minutes ago, WYorksWeather said:

As someone who is usually pretty sceptical of cold chances, I still think you have to give some concession to the mean, as long as it's just one or two ensemble runs that contradict. Looking at the ensembles, there are exactly zero that even break the mean between 6th January and 11th January at 850hPa, and for much of that period there aren't even any above -3C. Beyond that, there is some scatter, but there are only really two or three members that I would call even remotely mild (most of the ones that are above average around the 12th-14th go colder again afterwards). If you take the GFS at face value, that's maybe a 10% chance of consistently milder than average, and it's still eight days away.

Earlier in December, we even had some absolutely ridiculously mild ensemble members (>10C 850hPa), including one that showed 15C at 850hPa. Once we see as many of those as we do very cold ensembles again we know things are returning to normal.

I would probably have more faith in it if it was a median rather than a mean average.

January 4

1 hour ago, CharlieBear9 said:

Didn't notice, just seems to be going on every day.

Hard not to when you offer an alternative perspective on the current modelling and a response is to suggest I should go to bed and cheer up. Don't they realise I do all my best work at night?

January 4

7 minutes ago, Wold Topper said:

My current take fwiw being wet behind the ears is after reading an unhealthy amount of pages recently (The 'ignore' funtion is your friend) from experienced and knowledgeable posters (Thank you), that we are potentially on the cusp of something quite interesting/ exciting as a weather enthusiast, so i am quite happy to hang around with the glass half full 'gang' than hide around the corner with the 'negativity' crew..... all in jest....

And so you should quite rightly 'stick to your guns'.

January 4

16 minutes ago, Wold Topper said:

By that analogy you basically want the weather forcast guaranteed before you will believe? Why not rely on nowcasting or window watching, ie i won't believe it until i see it?

Not required in Phase 1: "Is it cold enough to snow?" but it is required in Phase 2: "Will it snow where I am?"

14 minutes ago, on the coast said:

Crikey. You are hard to please? Mild incursions during a cold spell will always happen wont they no matter how severe the spell?

Not as hard as you might think. One day of snow a year please. Hardly ever get it though.

I am not highlighting P23 because it is introducing mild air to end the cold spell, it is because it's illustrating an alternative timeline that stops the arctic incursion from reaching the UK.

9 minutes ago, jacke said:

If I was you I would call it a night. You might cheer up in the morning

I am perfectly happy thanks for asking.

January 4

13 minutes ago, Wold Topper said:

Oh dear... keep banging that drum, have you not read the past 30/40 pages?

Yes, but not persuaded otherwise by any of the content.

11 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Must admit I feel like the Grinch because I've read through the posts this evening in almost disbelief. We have a cold dry easterly currently showing for the weekend and beyond and some very cold, possibly more snowy charts showing way out in FI at days 10 and beyond11!!!

We are 'in the game', no doubt about that, but as per your message this is a long way from a done deal. If this goes pear shaped, there is going to be a lot of grumpy people!

I'm not buying at this stage. Lets see some of these mega charts get to day 8 and then I'll start to pay real attention.

I suppose it beats where we were this time last year though

It all comes down to my belief that any options for average conditions should really be weighted by the observer (e.g. one run showing average temps is the equivalent of five anomalously cold/warm ones), given the modelling tends to move away from extremes in favour of more average conditions as T+0 approaches. This means that the mild options would need to be swept from the table to remove the threat. It's nice to be in a position to hope for that, but not likely for a while yet.

January 3

1 minute ago, Bricriu said:

As long as we don't see more of these popping up in the days ahead

Precisely. Only one perturbation converted to mild per run would be sufficient to turn the entire pack mild. And I have seen more sudden changes than that in the past.

January 3

GEFS18z P23 not reading the script:

and unfortunately it's not the only one. Plenty of time for better, though.

January 3

What are GEFS12z P10 and P19 seeing?

January 3

20 minutes ago, Rob 79812010 said:

Question for long time model watchers. When the charts consistently showing colder temps out in F1 which then come into the medium term, is it still feasible it can all go belly up??

From 15th Jan, there's only 50-odd runs to go to reach T+0. What could possibly go wrong?

January 3

Fax charts show trapped fronts

another wet HP?

January 3

GEFS 06z P16 retrogresses the HP, but still manages to go mild:

I take some comfort from the range at which this occurs.

January 3

1 hour ago, GSP said:

“and snow then 1 Member showed mild..”

All it takes is one voice, singing in the darkness…

Enter GEFS 18z P26:

January 2

GEFS 12z P29 is painting an alternative Day 10 picture:

Hopefully, this option won't gain traction in the 30 or so runs before Day 5 is reached.

January 1

1 minute ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

When?

Take a look at GEFS 18z P10.

January 1

Have to be wary of the evolution shown by GEFS 18z P10:

It would be good to see that knocked out of the park in the forthcoming runs.

January 1

15 hours ago, Met4Cast said:

And this in itself is the problem..

Far too many people think the GSDM/MJO can be used for UK specific forecasting, it can’t. It’s a global diagnostic tool for broad scale patterns, macro rather than micro.

As per Tamara’s post yesterday/the day before, the well advertised south shifted jet & subsequent current -NAO phase has occurred.

Next week we will see amplification & cold air filtering across the UK, the high now unlikely to be amplified enough to allow for widespread deep cold/snowfall but that has never really been on offer, though granted clearly there has been a shift SE in the placement of high pressure, again.

Getting a decent synoptic pattern really is like pulling teeth these days, it’s becoming increasingly difficult & frustrating.

As a broad-scale diagnostic tool, clearly it can only take you so far up the garden path. A leap of faith is then required with the micro-scale components to complete the journey. The way this leap is often presented is that it is a simple matter of a puddle that needs skipping over. However, I find that the kind of leap required would be to clear Grand Canyon. If you live in the South-West and Central Southern England region, make that two Grand Canyons.

Sign In

Forums

Blogs

Gallery

Events

Learn About Weather and Meteorology

Community guides

Posts posted by The Enforcer