Right for the Wrong Reason?: A New Look at the 6 June 1944 D-Day Forecast by a Neutral Swede

[knocker]

"Abstract

There are at least three popular perceptions surrounding the weather forecast for the D-day landing in Normandy, 6 June 1994: 1) that the Allied weather forecasters predicted a crucial break or “window of opportunity” in the unsettled weather prevailing at the time; 2) that the German meteorologists, lacking observations from the North Atlantic, failed to see this break coming and thus the invasion took the Wehrmacht by surprise; and 3) that the American forecasters, guided by a skillful analog system, predicted the favorable conditions several days ahead but got no support from their pessimistic British colleagues. This article will present evidence taken mostly from hitherto rather neglected sources of information, transcripts of the telephone discussions between the Allied forecasters and archived German weather analyses. They show that 1) the synoptic development for the invasion was not particularly well predicted and, if there was a break in the weather, it occurred for reasons other than those predicted; 2) the German forecasters were fairly well informed about the large-scale synoptic situation over most of the North Atlantic, probably thanks to decoded American analyses; and 3) from the viewpoint of a “neutral Swede,” the impression is that the American analog method might not have performed as splendidly as its adherents have claimed, but also not as badly as its critics have alleged. Finally, the D-day forecast, the discussions among the forecasters, and their briefings with the Allied command are interesting not only from a historical perspective, but also as an early and well-documented example of decision-making under meteorological uncertainty."

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/101/7/bamsD180311.xml

[A Face like Thunder]

A pity that the abstract was not proof-read before it was published. '1944' rather than '1994'

[hillbilly]

Interesting thoughts from different sides but just like forcasting today they can get it very wrong.The truth is that the weather in early June 1944 was as bad as it can get and personally i think Eisenhower wasnt the sort of man to keep waiting around so decided to go anyway and despite the forcast to be much calmer i dont think it actually was,many of those soldiers drowned before getting to shore especially the floating tanks,they are all on the seabed with the soldiers still in.It is a little puzzling however that they didnt wait for calmer conditions as it wouldnt have made much difference to either attack of defend.We are all made aware that we could have been beat on the beaches but in reality the Germans thought we would land close to Calais and Normandy was very thinly defended as was the entire Western front except for the Calais area.As for the war being won in the West on that day that simply wasnt the case,the Germans were already beaten.There were 34 divisions facing Western allies and 187 divisions facing the Russians,such was the fear of the Russians the Germans sent no extra forces from the East to face the West.