Sea Surface Temperature And Sea Ice Trends

[parmenides3]

Yes, so logically, we should want cold anomolies to the east of Greenland and warm anomolies to the north of Scandinavia.

Wouldn't that show that the NAD was still strong, heading North, and the Fram outflux feeding off the Arctic? If so, it sounds a likely scenario, and one that would certainly inject 'energy' into the GIN system, if nothing else. Wouldn't this be conducive to decent storm/Polar Low activity?

P

[summer blizzard]

Those kinds of anomolies would encourage a Scandinavaian High/Greenland High linkup.

As the NAD does not increase in strength during each season, i doubt it will have any more effect on this wnter than it did the last, unless you mean the Jet Stream in which case, those anomolies as i have said would be conducive to a southerly tracking Jet Stream if other anomolies were setup correctly.

[Angel15]

I found this link on the MSN webby - says we need to do something now otherwise ice sheets will melt, sea levels rise, etc .. what do you think about this article?

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/14834318/

PS - if this is in the wrong thread, I apologise in advance!!

Edited September 19, 2006 by Angel15

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I found this link on the MSN webby - says we need to do something now otherwise ice sheets will melt, sea levels rise, etc .. what do you think about this article?

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/14834318/

PS - if this is in the wrong thread, I apologise in advance!!

Wrong thread, place it in environment exchange where I'm sure it will be discussed...mods?

BFTP

[summer blizzard]

Another small cold anomoly has developed in the central Atlantic in close eproximity to the warm anomolies, this increases the chances of a more zonal preiod around mid-October.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Another small cold anomoly has developed in the central Atlantic in close eproximity to the warm anomolies, this increases the chances of a more zonal preiod around mid-October.

That cold anomaly appearing just off Halifax/St Johns looks interesting...wonder if it will grow?

BFTP

Edited September 19, 2006 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Big Bear]

Those warm anomolies around Norway & the baltic sea look worryingly strong. We need those to drop to encourage Scandy HP development come December.

[Dawlish]

Those warm anomolies around Norway & the baltic sea look worryingly strong. We need those to drop to encourage Scandy HP development come December.

When you say "worryingly strong" Bear, you don't mean dangerous, in any way do you? You mean that they are "worryingly strong" to anyone hoping for a cold winter, don't you? In that circumstance, I would agree with you that they are worryingly strong".

Paul

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Those warm anomolies around Norway & the baltic sea look worryingly strong. We need those to drop to encourage Scandy HP development come December.

I don't think that is the case

BFTP

[summer blizzard]

No, warm anomolies in the Baltic Sea will encourage the development of a Scandinavian High however when compined with an above average mediterranian, this may encourage a Bartlett.

Despite signs of a more zonal flow around mid October, the Jet Stream does look to be on quite a southerly track in the western Atlantic however a European ridge will most likely negatate any influence in the south of England.

[Big Bear]

When you say "worryingly strong" Bear, you don't mean dangerous, in any way do you? You mean that they are "worryingly strong" to anyone hoping for a cold winter, don't you? In that circumstance, I would agree with you that they are worryingly strong".

Paul

No, actually I meant they are worrylingly strong in the sense that they might come to boiling point and cause a huge steam plume over Northern Europe resulting in accelerated global warming.

[Dawlish]

No, actually I meant they are worrylingly strong in the sense that they might come to boiling point and cause a huge steam plume over Northern Europe resulting in accelerated global warming.

[shuggee]

Those warm anomolies around Norway & the baltic sea look worryingly strong. We need those to drop to encourage Scandy HP development come December.

BB - it's worth remembering that the Baltic is a shallow sea and any cold airmass will bring down those sea surface temperatures relatively quickly. We were in a similar position last year - and then with a cold November the sea surface anomalies readily went negative.

[The Enforcer]

Here's last year's archive chart for around this period:

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-050918.gif

The overall pattern in the Atlantic is fairly similar, however, the Pacific is quite different and entirely opposite in places. Surely this will mean that this autumn's predominant weather patterns are likely to exhibit marked variation from last autumn's?

[shuggee]

Or with the time lag in the effect of SSTs - perhaps the weather 3 months down the line will be substantially different...

[summer blizzard]

Okay, depending on the sate of the AO, one of two things will most likely happen during mid-October...

1) AO positive - mean trough to west of British Isles providing warm air adection to European Ridge

2) AO negative - zonal pattern across the whole Atlantic with a strong thermal gradiant even over the British Isles

[Turnedoutniceagain]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml...1/narctic21.xml

Sailing to the North Pole. What does PM3 & Carinthian have to say about this ???

[summer blizzard]

The signal for a zonal Atlantic just keeps getting stronger.

[Thundersquall]

The signal for a zonal Atlantic just keeps getting stronger.

Wow, look at Hudson Bay! In the SW of the Bay the temperature is up to 5c above normal which is surely

very concerning with regards to Climate Change.

Also, warmer than average seas to south of Greenland doesn't bode well for a cold Winter.

This could well signify a wet and stormy one with Atlantic low after low moving in.

Edited September 23, 2006 by Thundersquall

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The signal for a zonal Atlantic just keeps getting stronger.

SB

Are you pojecting True zoneality? SW'ly here we come?

BFTP

Wow, look at Hudson Bay! In the SW of the Bay the temperature is up to 5c above normal which is surely

very concerning with regards to Climate Change.

Probably as much as water arounfd Indonesia and Borneo being up to 5C BELOW normal

BFTP

[West is Best]

To be fair it's not 5C below around Indonesia Blast. For what it's worth (and not very much is probably the answer with surface ocean anomalies) it's nearer 3C below. But this is probably a case of seeing whatever one wants to, wouldn't you say ...?!

[Thundersquall]

It does spell problems as far as sea-ice forming is concerned. Probably will take longer for Hudson Bay to freeze-over this

year, causing a real threat to Polar Bears.

Edited September 23, 2006 by Thundersquall

[Dawlish]

It does spell problems as far as sea-ice forming is concerned. Probably will take longer for Hudson Bay to freeze-over this

year, causing a real threat to Polar Bears.

Maybe, but if the weather does turn colder there, those warm anomalies will disappear rapidly. The question is - will it turn cold enough, this Autumn, to remove the anomalies and allow ice formation at the same rate as even last year?

Paul

[Thundersquall]

Maybe, but if the weather does turn colder there, those warm anomalies will disappear rapidly. The question is - will it turn cold enough, this Autumn, to remove the anomalies and allow ice formation at the same rate as even last year?

Paul

Was last year a bad one for sea-ice formation in Hudson Bay?

[Dawlish]

Was last year a bad one for sea-ice formation in Hudson Bay?

HI Thundersquall,

Hudson Bay was later to freeze, last year, a trend that has been established and is continuing and earlier to melt this spring. Total ice was below the long term minimum all winter.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM....region.13.html

This New Scientist article, published on 11th Sept is has good descriptions of and possible explanations for, the lack of ice, compared to past years.

http://www.newscientistspace.com/article/d...rastically.html

As you rightly say, it is causing problems for Arctic wildlife, especially Polar Bears.

Paul

Edited September 23, 2006 by Dawlish