Sea Surface Temperature And Sea Ice Trends

[Glacier Point]

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html

Interesting SST developments - the focus of the Atlantic warm anomoly has moved further North-West - North of Newfoundland and stretching up the West coast of Greenland. I would think this is starting to look quite good for negative NAO conditions - especially if we get a cold anomoly developing off the East coast of the United States in the next month or so.

Indeed, how much this arrangement last we will have to wait and see - this is a good arguement for holding onto any winter forecast until as late as possible in my opinion.

There was a good discussion on the Eastern US weather forums:

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?sh...105746&st=0

worth a look regarding possible movement of the anomalies along the lines of the UKMET's statistical predictor suggesting this winter would see a +ve NAO. I'm not totally signed up to this as we have pretty much the entire north Atlantic anomalously warm so it's dicey to use a 50 yr dataset with so few comparables for this. Also, and this may be linked, the last two UKMET statistical forecasts based on 6 month SSTA (Winter 05/6 and Summer 06) have bombed.

Other points to note are the continuing signs of a moderate El Nino with the MEI running already at weak El Nino strength, and perhaps more interestingly, the strength of the warm anomaly in the central and western Pacific indicative of a -ve phase PDO emerging (August was -ve PDO) - definately worth keeping an eye on into October and November.

GP

[summer blizzard]

Thanks for the link Glacier Point although i am actually a member already.

I agree, given the recent lack of forecast success in regards to the NAO, i am wary myself, and will be watching the August to October trends in sea surface temperature anomolies to indicate any negative or positive NAO signiture, however the August composite does indicate a positive NAO.

The MEI vale has been running at weak El Nino strength for the past two months, the majority of anologues see a peak in October followed by a slow declining trend, with a weak El Nino for winter.

The PDO is certainly interesting however no winter following a June PDO value of more than one has observed a negative PDO the following winter, therefore, we should expect a negative PDO Autumn followed by a positive PDO winter.

The combination of a weak El Nino and positive PDO should lead to a positive PNA winter.

[John Cox]

Hi GP,

Thanks for your comments and that link to the US forum.

It was indeed an interesting read and if you follow and believe what this guy says it is whatever anomalies show in Aug/Sep determine what the NAO will be in six months time as this is the length of time it takes for the flow to takes to travel from Newfoundland to the Azores. So high anomalies now in the north atlantic will mean a positive NAO this winter.

I hope he is wrong and I know but don’t understand the other factors but I will be watching the months NAO figures this winter to see if his theory holds up.

[Glacier Point]

The PDO is certainly interesting however no winter following a June PDO value of more than one has observed a negative PDO the following winter, therefore, we should expect a negative PDO Autumn followed by a positive PDO winter.

The combination of a weak El Nino and positive PDO should lead to a positive PNA winter.

depends on your measure...

ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ersst-v2/pdo.1854.latest.ts

1915, 1932 and 1936..

but the overall nub is that a -ve PDO and MEI > 0.5 are very unusual teleconnectors usually at one with each other - in other words, when the PDO's +ve, the MEI is +ve. It would be interesting to produce the composites for when these were at odds incase this plays out..

GP

[John Cox]

Hi Tamara,

I hope you are keeping well.

I'm just trying to throw Dawlish and a few others off my winter tail. Then when this theory (hopefully) doesent hold true then bingo, and we will get the wine and cigars out.

They will also see that I have an open mind and that I too believe what ever will be will be.

[John Cox]

Hi Tamara,

Yes things have been rather quite on the forum lately but I'm sure that many like us are waiting in the wings to see the first real signs of what the winter will hold for us. As you say so close last year.

I would not mind if things do not pan out quite like last year and perhaps an active Atlantic with the Polar jet to the south would bring lots of cold air from Arctic regions flooding down over the UK and Ireland.

Whatever does happen these winters (and summers) really are a journey on a quest for never ending meteorological knowledge.

Edited September 12, 2006 by John Cox

[parmenides3]

I am sure some of you will enjoy a rather good discussion of SSTs, hurricanes and the AMO on http://www.realclimate.org/

Nothing on forecasting, more on climate, but some interesting material to chew over, nonetheless.

P

[Dawlish]

Hi Tamara,

I hope you are keeping well.

I'm just trying to throw Dawlish and a few others off my winter tail. Then when this theory (hopefully) doesent hold true then bingo, and we will get the wine and cigars out.

They will also see that I have an open mind and that I too believe what ever will be will be.

Have a few bets, John, and it'll pay for your Winter warmers! You are so sure of a colder future that it might be interesting to see you backing your guesses! Good odds for cold-hopers!

I wasn't on your tail anyway! You're just paranoid. It was probably a bunch of mild winters following you, there's a lot of them about, these days.

Paul

[John Cox]

Nice one Paul and a great senses of humour you have .

There is no doubt I would love a cold winter but second to that I love autum and winter storms and as the atlantic is very mobile at the moment I am enjoying the increase in the winds.

So no bets at the moment, I dont want any "egg on my chin" just yet.

The stats. are obviously in your favour but lets wait and see.

OK then, just for the laugh. What odds will you give me for any snow lying on any day in Dublin during the month of November?

[Dawlish]

Nice one Paul and a great senses of humour you have .

There is no doubt I would love a cold winter but second to that I love autum and winter storms and as the atlantic is very mobile at the moment I am enjoying the increase in the winds.

So no bets at the moment, I dont want any "egg on my chin" just yet.

The stats. are obviously in your favour but lets wait and see.

OK then, just for the laugh. What odds will you give me for any snow lying on any day in Dublin during the month of November?

Sorry John, I only offer odds on UK climate. Eire is a very beautiful place (at least the SW is. We thought Dublin was a dump - no offence) about whose climate I know only what I can glean from textbooks and the fact that I get wet when I visit.

Must go; I have to sharpen my senses of humour.

Paul

Edited September 13, 2006 by Dawlish

[John Cox]

,

I love Dublin.......

I've never been to "Guess" but I guess it must be a nice place

Ok Paul. I will let you know when I get snow in November anyway

[West is Best]

,

I love Dublin.......

Me too - love the city: amazing place with such vibe and pizzazz, wonderful Guiness, beautiful buildings and with the most gorgeous girls I've ever seen together in one city. I nearly got a job at Trinity College once which would have been fantastic.

Oh well, each to their own!

Edited September 13, 2006 by West is Best

[John Cox]

Hi Richard,

I think you are a great guy and a much nicer person than Paul (Only Joking)

Dublin does have a charm of its own and the girls are indeed brill. My daugher is studying science at Trinity and what a place it would have been to work. Perhpas you might have a try again in the future.

Sorry mods, off topic.

I have to say this is the 1st time I have seen the atlantic so active in so long and I am really enjoying it!!. This can only bode well for increased ice build up in artic regions hopefully to suprise us all with some deadly northerly blasts in November.

Edited September 13, 2006 by John Cox

[Dawlish]

An ideal trip for me would be to go to Dublin - a night in a friendly bar listening to Irish music, a night seeing the Corrs 'who happen to be touring at the time' and a final night eating a traditional irish meal with some irish people at their home.

Anyway - I'm still not sure about the atlantic blasting back (at least on the semi-permanent GIN corridor basis that it was prior to Feb 05). I still think that blocking will continue to be a major feature of our weather. Should it return, then yes I agree about a southerly track being essential - anything else and I will have to submit myself to the fact that winters in the uk and ireland are RIP....only joking!

Tamara

Eat breakfast there snowp. Freshly baked soda bread - delicious! Cold winters aren't dead, don't worry. They are just much less likely than they were 25 years ago and they are likely to be even more scarce in the future..

Paul

Edited September 13, 2006 by Dawlish

[Snowly does it]

Eat breakfast there snowp. Freshly baked soda bread - delicious! Cold winters aren't dead, don't worry. They are just much less likely than they were 25 years ago and they are likely to be even more scarce in the future..

Paul

Funnily enough I just stocked up on bicarb of soda and cream of tartar, one does not need to go to Dublin to enjoy soda bread and melting butter!

Cold winters have been rare lately and clearly with GW and the Atlantic in play they will stay rare. The pattern change scenario with frequent blocking is short-term the best hope for colder winters (for those that want this of course), perhaps this winter will give some indication of whether this is likely to be a feature in the future or if we will just get mugged by activity through the GIN corridor again. I am quite fascinated by this winter now come what may, it may pose more questions than it answers and by that I of course mean that it cannot in isolation answer anything but it can provide more food for thought.

Does the climate adapt/react? I think it might. But will it adapt in time or enough? Therein lies a puzzle.

[John Cox]

An ideal trip for me would be to go to Dublin - a night in a friendly bar listening to Irish music, a night seeing the Corrs 'who happen to be touring at the time' and a final night eating a traditional irish meal with some irish people at their home.

Anyway - I'm still not sure about the atlantic blasting back (at least on the semi-permanent GIN corridor basis that it was prior to Feb 05). I still think that blocking will continue to be a major feature of our weather. Should it return, then yes I agree about a southerly track being essential - anything else and I will have to submit myself to the fact that winters in the uk and ireland are RIP....only joking!

Tamara

Hi Tamara,

You are welcome to look me up if you ever do visit Dublin and I would try to share some Irish hospitality and food with you. Not sure if I can guarantee the Corrs though.

This year has been a strange one (at least in Ireland) in that we have had every type of weather from a very dry and cold winter to a hot July, a very cold and wet August, and now an active atlantic in September. One could say that this is what Global Warming did promise so the Jury is still out as to whether we will get the same blocking as we did last winter or indeed something even more exciting.

Eat breakfast there snowp. Freshly baked soda bread - delicious! Cold winters aren't dead, don't worry. They are just much less likely than they were 25 years ago and they are likely to be even more scarce in the future..

Paul

Hi Paul,

Yes, nothing like war soda bread and Kerrygold butter. Not so sure about scarcity of the future cold winters though

perhaps this winter will give some indication of whether this is likely to be a feature in the future or if we will just get mugged by activity through the GIN corridor again. I am quite fascinated by this winter now come what may, it may pose more questions than it answers and by that I of course mean that it cannot in isolation answer anything but it can provide more food for thought.

Agree snowmaiden, in that it will probably throw up more questions than answers.

Edited September 13, 2006 by John Cox

[summer blizzard]

Hmm, there are some conflicting signals for mid August, while there are indications of a strong thermal gradiant off Newfoundland, there is also a signal for a highly amplified flow forcing a downstream ridge over western Europe.

We should watch this development carefully.

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

It is about this time in previous years the debate gets up about SSTs in the GIN sea.

Does lack of discussion on this suggest the debate on significance of temps between Greenland and Iceland was inconclusive? Or doesn't it matter compared to other temps?

I wonder what peoples thoughts are on this ... it once produced a lot of heated discussion but not now, it seems.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Hmm, there are some conflicting signals for mid August, while there are indications of a strong thermal gradiant off Newfoundland, there is also a signal for a highly amplified flow forcing a downstream ridge over western Europe.

We should watch this development carefully.

What you looking for SB?

BFTP

[summer blizzard]

Whether we have a zonal flow or a highly amplified flow, there looks to be a downstream ridge over Europe however it is interesting to see whether the zonal or amplified flow will win out.

For those that don't know, you can usually tell a zonal flow by the close proximity of a warm and cold anomoly enhancing the thermal gardiant in that area.

AtlanticFlamethrower, i think that is because there are less people looking at this thread this year, because this was effectively the winter thread last Autumn, i suspect more people will come now we are having this conversation, and also i will be posting some interesting data in the next few days relating to this discussion.

While i thought differently last year, i now think that sea surface temperature anomolies in the GIN area do not play a major part on our weather unless sea surface temperature anomolies are conducive to a northerly tracking Jet Stream which at the present moment, they are not although they will undoubtedly warm any Polar airmass.

It is interesting to not the cold anomolies in the Greenland Sea which are indicative of early ice advancement.

[stormchaser1]

Morning everyone

This was the current conditions of the North Sea ,@ 1020 hrs this morning took these temps at a place called Cullercoates ,not far from Whitley Bay

Temp of Sea.........16.5c

Air temp.................24.3c

pressure...............1013hpa

sea breeze of 7.5kmph

force 2

overall conditions ,,calm few cumulus clouds ,

Tide was out at the time

nigel

[Cheviot]

Do you think the potential of an EL Nino event in 2006/2007 will aid cold pooling off Greenland?

If there's a reduced hurrican season, then is it right to assume that the gulf stream is marginally cooler?

Obviously, if both are true then we should be set for a cooler Winter.

[summer blizzard]

I am not particualy sure, however January 2003 observed the highest MEI valeu in recent years, so i will post the weekly sea surface temperature anomoly charts from then....

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-030105.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-030112.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-030119.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-030126.gif

Positve PNA pattern however a zonal pattern in the Atlantic.

Higher pressure around Newfoundland has actually created a more positive anomoly.

Edited September 18, 2006 by summer blizzard

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

AtlanticFlamethrower, i think that is because there are less people looking at this thread this year, because this was effectively the winter thread last Autumn, i suspect more people will come now we are having this conversation, and also i will be posting some interesting data in the next few days relating to this discussion.

While i thought differently last year, i now think that sea surface temperature anomolies in the GIN area do not play a major part on our weather unless sea surface temperature anomolies are conducive to a northerly tracking Jet Stream which at the present moment, they are not although they will undoubtedly warm any Polar airmass.

It is interesting to not the cold anomolies in the Greenland Sea which are indicative of early ice advancement.

Interesting, thanks! I look forward to looking at your data.

I also got the impression GIN sea was now seen as a small cog in a much larger system of teleconnections.

I suppose it did not help the debate that there was confusion over whether cold or warm anomalies in the GIN sea were best. Warm anomalies would favour Greenland high, whereas cold would indicate Ice formation and more potent northerlies.

[summer blizzard]

Yes, so logically, we should want cold anomolies to the east of Greenland and warm anomolies to the north of Scandinavia.