Us Chase Day 11 Discussion

[Paul Sherman]

Tomorrow looks like a Very Big day and probably our best chance of the trip, This has the potential to be upgraded to a HIGH Risk and PDS May be issued tomorrow. The last 2 times this happened there were 88 and 118 tornadoes reported accordingly, lets hope the models stay the same.

...SYNOPSIS...

MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CNTRL U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERGO

STRONG AMPLIFICATION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS LARGE SCALE PHASING BETWEEN

MIDDLE AND NRN BRANCH FLOW PRODUCES AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP CYCLONE

ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS LARGE SCALE EVOLUTION WILL UNFOLD AS STRONG

MIDDLE STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS EAST ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS

THROUGH LATE TUESDAY EVENING. THIS IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE

STRONG MCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OK THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SRN PLAINS

SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN COINCIDENT WITH THE MCS AND

SPREAD EAST TO NEAR THE MO BOOTHEEL AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SLOWER MOVING NRN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH/LOW WILL DEVELOP ESEWD

FROM MT TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD QUICKLY

SWD/SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MERGE WITH THE DEEPENING CYCLONE

ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE PRIMARY

DEEP LAYER CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN BRANCH TROUGH UNDERGOES

OCCLUSION OVER LAKE MI...INTENSIFYING SECONDARY CYCLONE IS FORECAST

TO TRACK NNEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST... AND INTO LOWER MI...THROUGH

WEDNESDAY EVENING. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE

MID/LOWER MS VALLEY...AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND OFF THE

NCNTRL GULF COAST...THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.

...SERN MO TO LOWER MI...

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION TO SOMEWHAT

IMPEDE AIR MASS MODIFICATION ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY DURING

WEDNESDAY GIVEN PRESENCE OF UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY AND STRONG OUTFLOW

BOUNDARIES. HOWEVER...GFS AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SUPPORT AT LEAST

MODEST RECOVERY IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION AND AHEAD OF

APPROACHING MID LEVEL WIND MAX AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. GIVEN LOW

TO MID 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND POCKETS OF MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG

/POSSIBLY HIGHER IF GFS FORECAST VERIFIES/ SHEAR AND FORCING APPEAR

MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO PROMOTE STORM ORGANIZATION INTO LINE SEGMENTS

AND LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS

THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND LOWER MI FROM AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING WITH

AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. TORNADO POTENTIAL

APPEARS GREATEST NEAR THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW. IF MODEST TO

STRONG INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP COINCIDENT WITH THIS FEATURE...A

COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES APPEAR POSSIBLE.

...LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH...

SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW...WIDESPREAD MOISTURE AND INCREASING

INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST. OUTFLOW FROM POSSIBLE OK/AR MCS MAY SPREAD

SEWD INTO AND INHIBIT STRONGER AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION EARLY IN THE

DAY. HOWEVER...STRONG RECOVERY IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS

OUTFLOW...FROM TXK ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY AFTERNOON.

DIFFLUENT AND INCREASINGLY STRONG WLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SPREAD

ACROSS THE RECOVERING WARM SECTOR AND FOSTER NEW CONVECTION AHEAD OF

THE COLD FRONT FROM AR ACROSS THE MS RIVER. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIST

WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS WITH

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR POSSIBLE. IF THIS CONVECTION

CAN REMAIN DISCRETE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...STORMS WILL MOVE INTO

HIGH HELICITY REGIME EXISTING IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER MCS OUTFLOW.

TORNADIC STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE BEFORE CONVECTION BECOMES

INCREASINGLY LINEAR AS INTENSIFYING COLD FRONT DEVELOPS INTO THE

REGION. WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY EXTEND BEYOND

SUNSET AS SEVERE SQUALL LINE DEVELOPS ESEWD ACROSS THE NRN GULF

COAST/DEEP SOUTH.

If you have any thoughts on this and have any ideas please post your thoughts on this here.

Regards

Paul Sherman

[Paul Sherman]

Blasting off soon for a Significant event today, 15% chance of Large Tornadoes, none of us know the Terrain and our Target area is Jackson Tennessee, EDS Issued (Extremely Dangerous Situation) for today, yesterdays Tornadoes were pretty bad when darkness came, 3 Fatalities just 60 miles south of our location and in Childress numerous Fires and no power all night due to 2 Nightime Tornadoes.

Will try and keep you Updated When we can but should be a busy day

Paul Sherman

[crimsone]

The setupp you've detailed in your first post...

Is that by any chance similar to the one that spawned the supercell in OK, that went on to spawn the now infamous F5 that headed for Oklahoma City and its smaller sisters?

Edited May 10, 2006 by crimsone

[Roger J Smith]

10 May 06 _ 1625z

The set-up continues to look very promising (or threatening) for major tornadic development across KY, TN and MS into AL in a few hours time. Current TRW+ clusters are mainly southeast of developing risk zone or along remnants of last night's front now in w/c Arkansas. The rest of this front running across nw LA into se TX will activate rapidly in about 2-3 hours and draw energy from hot, humid air mass still in place over the region, dew points are widely into the mid-70s F.

Today's situation will be very dangerous for storm chasing. If the team gets a chance to read this before arriving in Jackson TN, the terrain is similar to southern England with rolling hills and mixed landscape of farms and wooded areas. The danger to storm chasers will come from the fact that these storms may blow up very rapidly and would be dangerous for "core punching" as I understand the term.

I have PM'd Paul Sherman with a phone number he can feel free to call if the team is in the field and wondering about the shape or extent of severe storm echoes at a given time between 1900z and 0000z, after which darkness will be falling in TN and AL. Another ready source of info in the absence of internet connections would be CNN -- they tend to show live radar updates in these major outbreaks at the beginning of each half hour news cycle.

Will post an update on developments around 1820z.

[Roger J Smith]

10 May 1820z

Strong lines of heavy to severe storms now forming across MS and AL -- eventually a new batch may fire from s AR across LA and that may reach w TN in severe form, but if I were chasing today I think MS-AL border is the prime location, between Meridian MS and Birmingham AL. Nevertheless, if the team is in w TN, they may eventually find severe weather heading in from the southwest, but not from existing cells. The actual cold front is still a fair distance west, running from about the n.w. corner of LA across southern Texas. This is still forcing very humid air into the developing storm zone, and the current activity is definitely pre-frontal instability capable of generating F2-3 tornados. Further development could be even stronger, extreme caution will be needed today for safety.

[Anvil Crawler]

Currently in El Dorado eastern Arkansas, with a Tornado Watch for the counties just below us in Northern Louisiana, still heading east to Jackson for the main play.

NetWeather Team

[Roger J Smith]

Did you guys mean Jackson TN or Jackson MS?

I would head for eastern MS although you may have to drive through heavy action to get in front of the storms.

[wolves78]

there headin to jackson TN roger

[Thundersquall]

Just for interest's sake, Bristol in England is currently experiencing a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS)!

Lots of rain with some impressive thunder and lightning, and fantastic cloud formations.

Yep, thought I saw a flash out the corner of my eye - and there's the thunder!

[Gorky]

I think they are way to high in Tenessee if thats where they are. All of last nights stormed which stayed active through today would have cleaned that area out of decent moisture. That and the fact that the area has been cloud covered all day and won't have much in the way of CAPE compared to further south means they surely must have meant Jackson, Mississipi? I know they were discussing driving to Alabama last night so I don't see why they would have chased further north when the best action was progged further south anyway..

[Roger J Smith]

I agree, their earlier location suggests they may be heading into MS, and in any case, they seem aware that activity is building across n LA. The action currently in AL and e MS will probably fade out somewhat and the action over LA and e TX will probably intensify later, so they may find themselves right in the middle of developments somewhere in MS in about an hour or two. TN is not out of the picture however, the rapid intensification of the surface low between 00z and 03z will probably set off severe storms further north as well. Despite the severity of storms across central Alabama past 2-3 hours, I think the worst is yet to come today and in fact tonight could be a time of widespread damaging storms across Alabama, Tennessee and Georgia. The usual diurnal energy cycle is being offset by stronger dynamics as the upper level winds start to force quite sharply tonight. Progged 500 mb values in the severe weather zone increase from 65 knots at 18z to 80 knots at 06z and 95 knots at 12z. Later tonight it's possible that tornadic storms will also erupt over KY and OH with this rapid development. The surface low is progged to deepen from 998 mb at present to 983 mb at 12z over Michigan. This creates a blast of cold NW winds across IL and MO into the storm zone, creating massive lift despite the absence of solar heating. Dew points in the warm sector are another indication of high potential (23-25 C common).

[stevestorms]

Ok my team are now in the Big Texan in Amarillo for a nice rest looks very quite next few days but friday might see us pushing south into southern texas for severe weather.

[Paul Sherman]

Hi Guys, just to let you know we are safe and well, absolute Nightmare down here and NEVER Chase Louisiana or Mississipi, we were surrounded by about 15 Supercells at one point and did not know which one to choose, got pummelled on I20 For what seemed an eternity, saw a Semi on its roof in the ditch and the visibility was down to 20 yards on some roads, they have more Forests than the bloody Amazon here, got some Lightning pics but the heat and humidity made pictures rubbish, so will trek across to somewhere like Ardmore tomorrow and then set up for the Weekend down in Texas AGAIN!!

Regards

Paul Sherman

[fuzion]

clad yur all ok we have had an eventful evening here in uk huge thunderstorms in the south from west of london to south wales it really just exploded out of noware on the (radar/satalite) one minute notin on radar or sat next bang

Edited May 11, 2006 by fuzion

[stevestorms]

Hi Guys, just to let you know we are safe and well, absolute Nightmare down here and NEVER Chase Louisiana or Mississipi, we were surrounded by about 15 Supercells at one point and did not know which one to choose, got pummelled on I20 For what seemed an eternity, saw a Semi on its roof in the ditch and the visibility was down to 20 yards on some roads, they have more Forests than the bloody Amazon here, got some Lightning pics but the heat and humidity made pictures rubbish, so will trek across to somewhere like Ardmore tomorrow and then set up for the Weekend down in Texas AGAIN!!

Regards

Paul Sherman

Hi guys glad yer all safe, we got plastered last night at the Big Texan ohhhhhhhh them tall ice cold Buds! B) anyway we have booked another night here just waiting for something to happen the South Texas risk seems to have diminished for Saturday so we aint got a clue if remains the same might drive back to OKC for the Chaser BAR-B-Q have a good drive back chaps. Steve.

[wolves78]

hiya you lot hope you have had a good day tday but looking at things so far tnite not much in the way of real storms maybe a little quiet for you?

there has been such a change in the jet stream that has prob caused no activity tday but saturday looks to ok so far for northern texas hope you are safe take care

stevestorms

hope the BBQ was decent enough have a safe day and hope you as the net weather team have a safe trip

[WhiteFox]

I'm in the US myself at the moment and I know that the storms down south have been big news over the past few days.

There were even reports of a tornado in South-West Ohio!

CNN showed a graphic of why the situation is so active: A big depression sitting over the Great Lakes pumping cold air south, and warm air being pumped up from the South. Throw in heat coming west (Phoenix forecast to hit 100oF today) and a bifurcated jet-stream and you have the ingredients for storm-chasers' dreams!

The depression over the Great Lakes is forecast to be in-situ for quite a few days, so a bit dull here in upstate New York...

[Coopsy]

Have you guys seen a tornado yet? I have looked thru the threads and read about supercells and active storms, but no confirmation of a tornado?

[crimsone]

Have you guys seen a tornado yet? I have looked thru the threads and read about supercells and active storms, but no confirmation of a tornado?

They've seen two apparently. I must admit, I've not seen any pics of them, but I don't doubt that they were seen.

I can't wait to see the videos myself!

[Paul Sherman]

The videos will all be uploaded at the end of the trip and will be well worth watching, over 20 Supercells, Tornadoes and Bow Echoes, some great footage in the car as we are chasing as well, also taking cover in Coalgate with the Tornado Sirens wailing, amazing and cannot wait to upload this for you.

Paul Sherman

[NL]

Mornin Paul.. Whays on the agenda for the last 6 days of your trip?.. Just wetterzentrale dos'nt predict any major storm developments in the near future..Hope its wrong but bearing in mind that theyve been pretty accurate recently..

[Paul Sherman]

Hi There, Not looking good is it, but we live in hope that the models are wrong, there will be something to chase but does not look like it will be severe.

Paul S

[NL]

Shame that the LP system over the Great Lakes wont slip further south......Could have been the ingredient for severe weather..Happy chasing u never know what may happen!!!

[wolves78]

any ideas were you think the weekend will pop you so far sundays seem to be the best chase days been so much activity the past few sundays out there

[Paul Sherman]

Well we are situated in Sherman (Tx) at present, so not a bad position wise, if the heat sets off something tomorrow we will be in a great position to keep this Hotel as a base and return here tonight, then more chance of Storms on Saturday and Sunday in the Southern Oklahoma and Northern Texas regions once again, so not much in the way of Travel (Thank God) as we have already doen 4500 miles, but we don't yet know if the storms will be severe enough, but with lowish Dewpoints pictures should be good, and you never know they might just spin up if they can get severe, but not a classic set-up by any means.

Paul S