Invest 93l

[kold weather]

Hi everyonethis is a thread about 93L which is currently just off Carolinas. This is probably the most favorable waves presently though it does seem to be slowly moving towards the Caorlinas right now. Still its got some good convection over the center, its just a qeuestion as to whether the system has a closed center, it may have as the high resoltuion sat loops do suggests some low level cloud turning present but it doesn't appear to be too vigarous. However still if there is a low level circulation then we have got recon flying in there in the next few hours and if they can close off a low level center then we are very likely to get Td-4.

The main problem for this system is the increase in shear over the last few hours, which is starting to blow the anvils back south, depsite the system moving in the opposite direction. This could well blow the systems away and leave any center exposed tonight, as the models are expecting if anything the shear to pep up even more and that would give this system large problems.

As Recon is going into this system and given the evident circulation that is present this system has a fair shout at becoming TD4 and as such I've created a new thread for this system as its also quite close to land.

[SnowBear]

Recon are en route currently somewhere near the AL/FL border, about another hour before they reach the area (fix/invest scheduled for 1800z/18.00 GMT/7pm BST)

Current HDOB messege is...

063

SXXX50 KNHC 161554

AF300 01FFA INVEST HDOB 03 KNHC

1545 3105N 08752W 06706 0427 081 016 121 183 016 07157 0000000000

1545. 3107N 08751W 06764 0430 076 015 125 183 016 07219 0000000000

1546 3108N 08749W 06812 0433 077 014 125 183 014 07270 0000000000

1546. 3109N 08748W 06866 0436 075 013 131 175 013 07327 0000000000

1547 3110N 08746W 06918 0440 072 012 135 179 013 07383 0000000000

1547. 3111N 08745W 06968 0444 072 012 139 179 012 07437 0000000000

1548 3112N 08743W 07003 0447 076 011 141 183 011 07475 0000000000

1548. 3113N 08742W 07017 0447 080 012 145 185 012 07489 0000000000

1549 3114N 08740W 07014 0446 079 011 145 185 011 07485 0000000000

1549. 3116N 08738W 07015 0445 082 011 145 189 011 07486 0000000000

1550 3117N 08737W 07014 0446 088 010 141 197 011 07485 0000000000

1550. 3118N 08735W 07013 0448 090 010 143 201 011 07486 0000000000

1551 3120N 08733W 07013 0449 092 011 145 197 011 07487 0000000000

1551. 3121N 08731W 07013 0449 093 011 145 227 011 07487 0000000000

1552 3123N 08729W 07013 0452 089 011 145 247 011 07490 0000000000

1552. 3124N 08727W 07012 0453 086 011 143 279 011 07491 0000000000

1553 3126N 08725W 07011 0454 085 010 145 285 010 07490 0000000000

1553. 3127N 08723W 07011 0456 082 010 145 267 010 07493 0000000000

1554 3129N 08721W 07011 0457 081 010 143 269 010 07493 0000000000

1554. 3130N 08719W 07011 0457 082 011 143 265 012 07494 0000000000

;

Source: http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tro...tic/SXXX50.KNHC

HDOB/Minobs Decoding..

http://homepage.ntlworld.com/snowbear/MiniobsTutorial.htm

(This is a USAF mission, therefore use the top part of the page)

[SnowBear]

000

URNT12 KNHC 161951

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

A. 16/19:32:40Z

B. 32 deg 14 min N

076 deg 58 min W

C. NA mb NA m

D. 25 kt

E. 141 deg 014 nm

F. 256 deg 022 kt

G. 146 deg 010 nm

H. EXTRAP 1012 mb

I. 23 C/ 275 m

J. 24 C/ 274 m

K. 24 C/ NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 134 / 1

O. 0.05 / 3 nm

P. AF300 01FFA INVEST OB 11

MAX FL WIND 29 KT NW QUAD 17:39Z

SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.

;

[crimsone]

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

405 PM EDT WED AUG 16 2006

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE

COASTS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA IS PRODUCING MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 25 MILES PER HOUR IN A FEW ISOLATED

THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT YET BECOME A TROPICAL

DEPRESSION AND ADVISORIES ARE NOT BEING INITIATED AT THIS TIME.

HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A

TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BEFORE

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT ON

THURSDAY.

$$

FORECASTER KNABB

A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NOW IS NEAR 33N76W.

THE DUAL LOW CENTERS OF YESTERDAY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC

OCEAN JUST EAST OF FLORIDA COMBINED INTO ONE LOW CENTER DURING

THE LAST 24 HOURS...AND MOVED TO THE NORTH FOR THE PRESENT

SITUATION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS

ARE OCCURRING FROM 31N TO 33N BETWEEN 76W AND 79W. ISOLATED

MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM

27N TO 33N BETWEEN 73W AND 79W. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION STILL

MAY FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS

BECOME MORE UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT ON

THURSDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT

IS EXPECTED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

Edited August 16, 2006 by crimsone

[crimsone]

Latest atlantic outlook...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 MILES EAST OF

CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA...HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST

SEVERAL HOURS WHILE DRIFTING WESTWARD. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM

ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED AND MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR

25 MPH IN A FEW SPOTS. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR

THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24

HOURS...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FOR

DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH

FRIDAY.

$$

FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH

[Kain]

Everything is really having a hard time to form this year..

I guess we were spoiled last year lol.

But still, seems very quiet this year compared to 'normal' years..

Kain

[Paranoid]

So far we seem to be having less activity than the 1983 season, which had only 4 storms. I wouldn't be surprised if we only had 4-6 storms this year.

[Gray-Wolf]

I keep thinking that, even though the NOAA dropped a storm in their update for the 2006 season, that they'll still be on the high side with their forcast. We'd be in for a hectic 6 weeks if they're spot on!! With what K.w. said about Saharan dust and its ability to 'drop' a storm (system?) I have to wonder if theire is a spanner in their (NOAA) model with more of a dust input this year than was 'normal/expected'.

I'm also sure that if this proves to be a less active season then we'll find out soon enough why they think that is.

[kold weather]

93L still not looking too bad at the moment with still some okay convective cloud coverage according to the current visables, though it looks pretty petty compared to Hector in the EPAC!

As for the totals Paranoid, i'd be suprised if we got numbers below 7 named storms, i'm pretty sure we'll get higher then that and I'm still pretty sure we'll get into double figures given we have 3 systems now. Got to remember that despite having only 3 tropical storms, we are bang on average where we should be, its just the last few years have skewed our ideas!

However I think Dr.Gray and his team are on for a bust this season given how the Atlantic are still pretty quiet. Looks like unless we see a few Cape Verde waves we are gonig to have a below average ACE season, and also worth noting how NOAA forecasted this EPAC season to be below average with 80% confidence...however so far thats looking optimistic and we may well get a near average season there given we already are close to what the last 3 season ACE total was at the end of the season!

Edited August 17, 2006 by kold weather