Ex-Hurricane Florence

[Snowkissed]

It seems that the NHC are now advising us Brits - not officially of course, but if you take a look at the Mariners 1-2-3 rule chart for Florence, the Track Forecast is heading directly for the middle of the UK as an extra-tropical gale at 50N30W.

It could get wet here

[crimsone]

This is the last forecast track given for Florence, and has her remnants as an extra-tropical storm just off the coast of Ireland on Saturday morning. Can anybody say if Ex-Florence is still on track?

[Dawlish]

This is the last forecast track given for Florence, and has her remnants as an extra-tropical storm just off the coast of Ireland on Saturday morning. Can anybody say if Ex-Florence is still on track?

Hi crimsone,

Ex-Florence is just off Nova Scotia, on the present 00z gfs. She's still a potent storm. I wouldn't want to be out there in a small boat at the moment. If you track her across the Atlantic at 6 hourly intervals, she is forecast to dumbell around another low, then absorb it. She's then forecast to fill and drift Northwards, eventually petering out over Iceland early next week, having little, or no effect on the UK. The last forecast was correct up to a point, but the high pressure over Europe is now highly likely to stall her progress and stymie her effects.

Thanks for posting the Saturday forecast track. It illustrates the forecasters' difficulties with such systems perfectly.

The forecasts last weekend were for Florence to have a significant effect on our weather in the coming weekend - as your forecast track would indicate. I wobbled with my "spot", thinking exactly the same, but the European high proved stronger than anyone thought and this weekend should turn out mainly fine and warm, at least for England.

Paul

Edited September 14, 2006 by Dawlish

[Polar Bear]

Hi crimsone,

Ex-Florence is just off Nova Scotia, on the present 00z gfs. She's still a potent storm. I wouldn't want to be out there in a small boat at the moment. If you track her across the Atlantic at 6 hourly intervals, she is forecast to dumbell around another low, then absorb it. She's then forecast to fill and drift Northwards, eventually petering out over Iceland early next week, having little, or no effect on the UK. The last forecast was correct up to a point, but the high pressure over Europe is now highly likely to stall her progress and stymie her effects.

Thanks for posting the Saturday forecast track. It illustrates the forecasters' difficulties with such systems perfectly.

The forecasts last weekend were for Florence to have a significant effect on our weather in the coming weekend - as your forecast track would indicate. I wobbled with my "spot", thinking exactly the same, but the European high proved stronger than anyone thought and this weekend should turn out mainly fine and warm, at least for England.

Paul

Paul

Hi I caught something off the news this morning re remnants affecting our weather system...what and how is this likley to be..i.e what sort of weather and when..should we be battering down the hatches??..

[Kain]

I heard on GMTV this morning that Ex Flo and possibly even Gordon going to effect out weather with strong winds and a heavy rain.

Kain

[Dawlish]

I heard on GMTV this morning that Ex Flo and possibly even Gordon going to effect out weather with strong winds and a heavy rain.

Kain

If GMTV is telling the public that Florence is going to affect the UK with strong wiinds, then the people that write the scripts have their heads up their collective backsides. Gordon possibly- but no better than that. Florence....well I hope they enjoy what they can see from their constricted viewpoint, if that is the best meteorology they can give their viewers.

Paul

Edited September 15, 2006 by Dawlish

[Gray-Wolf]

If GMTV is telling the public that Florence is going to affect the UK with strong wiinds, then the people that write the scripts have their heads up their collective backsides. Gordon possibly- but no better than that. Florence....well I hope they enjoy what they can see from their constricted viewpoint, if that is the best meteorology they can give their viewers.

Paul

I think that they may well influence things in that they are able to introduce extra 'dynamics' into the system i.e. warmth and moisture. This may well help define the european high further and enable it to stay stable for longer. The overspill of cloud into Ireland and Scotland is the main possibility I'd go for from the systems as they track North East.

As for Helene, well she may well be a different story and for the one after that? well there seems to be some kind of 'Re-curve progression' going on in the Atlantic at the moment with each sucessive re-curve being more east than the last so who knows what may be in store by late September

[Dawlish]

I think that they may well influence things in that they are able to introduce extra 'dynamics' into the system i.e. warmth and moisture. This may well help define the european high further and enable it to stay stable for longer. The overspill of cloud into Ireland and Scotland is the main possibility I'd go for from the systems as they track North East.

As for Helene, well she may well be a different story and for the one after that? well there seems to be some kind of 'Re-curve progression' going on in the Atlantic at the moment with each sucessive re-curve being more east than the last so who knows what may be in store by late September

True. I'm not sure GMTV will express those technical possibilities as well as you do Grey Wolf.

Paul

[crimsone]

According to the meto charts last night up to T+84, ex florence will make it half way across the atlantic - her low center will merge with two low centers there, and her frontal systems will end up merging with a lowto the north of the uk before the fronts are dragged across us.

I don't know what the meto chart forecasts say today though

Edit: A little change from the above, but still basically similar - http://www.meto.gov.uk/weather/charts/animation.html

Edited September 15, 2006 by crimsone

[Hammer]

A topic was posted on a US forum that watches the tropics but that mentions other areas of interest. It mentioned http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?...;hour=Animation

5 days out at the moment, but interesting none the less that it had the intention of the chaps over in the US.

[crimsone]

Geez!...

The end of that run brings a series of lows to the UK that are deeper than Hurricane Helene ever becomes. That would be some SERIOUSLY bad weather. FI of course, but really nasty never the less.

Of course, I note that the first low (ex-Florence) heads straight for us but is swung up through Greenland by another 'home-grown' low. That's one to keep an eye on for sure!

Edited September 16, 2006 by crimsone