Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[Methuselah]

As a geologist I too am interested as to how this process works. Its a new one to me and as a scientist I like to keep an open mind but can't quite see the linkage. Straying into particle physics I thought protons were relatively large (for sub atomic particles) and were positively charged therefore would not be able to penetrate to the earth's crust as they'd hit something or stick to something. Neutrinos can and do go right through the planet as they are small and have no charge, they also do not interact with the material they pass through.

M

As Tohay Wilcox once sang: It's a mystery...Unfortunately, IMO, pseudoscience works mainly by inventing silly claims that, on the face of it, look like they might need answers.

I did geology and particle physics as modules, And, although it was 16-years back, I don't recall any link between cosmic rays and anything disasterish, either.

I must have missed it. Oh well. Back to the Ouija Board!

[Coast]

Solar winds and plasma storms are "sandblasting" the Moon, according to top NASA boffins, causing large amounts of lunar surface material to be blown off into space.

The new discoveries come to us from simulations conducted by NASA's Dynamic Response of the Environment At the Moon (DREAM) team. In particular the DREAMers modelled the effects of a large Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) - essentially a massive gale-force gust or storm in the solar wind, involving say a gigatonne of plasma being blasted out into space. Such a mighty puff of sun-wind striking the Moon can have serious effects, the lunar surface not being protected by any atmosphere worthy of name nor any magnetic field either as we have here on Earth.

“We found that when this massive cloud of plasma strikes the Moon, it acts like a sandblaster and easily removes volatile material from the surface,†said William Farrell, DREAM team lead at NASA Goddard, in a statement issued yesterday. “The model predicts 100 to 200 tons of lunar material - the equivalent of 10 dump truck loads - could be stripped off the lunar surface during the typical 2-day passage of a CME.â€

The space sandblaster procdess is technically known as "sputtering", the word used to decribe the ejection of surface atoms when struck by plasma ions. Seemingly the ions in a CME are extra sputtersome as they have a higher proportion of comparatively heavy and more powerfully charged helium nuclei among them (as compared to your more lightweight hydrogen ones) than is seen in the regular solar wind.

The NASA DREAM crew are particularly keen to flag up their research as this is a time of major budget crunch at the US space agency and they are plainly worried that the Lunar Atmosphere And Dust Environment Explorer (LADEE) - a lunar orbiter mission scheduled to launch in 2013 - might be in line for the chop so as to let America afford such efforts as the Webb Space Telescope and the Shuttle- and Apollo-retread Space Launch System manned mega-rocket.

The DREAM team plainly consider that this would be a mistake, the more so as the sandblaster simulations perhaps mean that the LADEE - zooming along in the clouds of lunar topsoil sent boiling up into moon orbit by CMEs - would be nearly as good as having a lander. “This huge CME sputtering effect will make LADEE almost like a surface mineralogy explorer, not because LADEE is on the surface, but because during solar storms surface atoms are blasted up to LADEE,†argues Farrell.

The NASA boffins also suspect that CME-driven sputtering could have major effects on the thin atmosphere of Mars, the red planet being largely unprotected magnetically

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/12/07/solar_storms_sandblast_moon/

[Polar Maritime]

Unbelievable Northern Lights, Aurora Borealis in Lapland, Finland.

http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=172016859561812

[GeorgeWX]

Still plagued with computer problems here due to the slow death of my hard drive. At the moment I'm managing to salvage some functionality through safe mode and an old version of i.e. A good time to replace the machine will be right after xmas i think! Until then I can't access most solar related resources.

From what I can see, it doesn't look like I missed very much, though the SFI and sunspot number remains above Nasa's predicted values.

[shuggee]

I don't think I've ever seen such a period of inactivity - even during solar minimum: KP Index 0 for over 48 hours.

[pottyprof]

Probably something that's got the solar science peeps scratching their heads Shuggs. That yellow blob sure doesn't want to play ball still. Perhaps it hasn't read the script?

[karyo]

the SFI and sunspot number remains above Nasa's predicted values.

Really? Is this cycle turning out more active than the prediction?

Karyo

[GeorgeWX]

Really? Is this cycle turning out more active than the prediction?

Karyo

Yes, the noaa data up to the start of December shows both smoothed sunspot number and solar flux above the most recent prediction for sc24, though the lull that we are in now is definitely a drop in activity and will be reflected in the graphs when they are next updated.

The monthly solar flux for December should come out around 130ish. The sunspot number is looking like it's going to be near or slightly above 85. Still 12 more days of December so numbers could go up or down, but likely to be not by much.

Here's 2 links showing the sfi and sunspot trend.

http://www.swpc.noaa...arCycle/f10.gif

http://www.swpc.noaa...cle/sunspot.gif

Edited December 18, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[karyo]

Thank you George, I hope the lull continues.

Karyo

[Crepuscular Ray]

Given the assumed correlation between low solar activity and colder than usual weather / snow events, how does the current setup fit into things? Solar activity is very low compared to earlier this year but compared to this time last December the weather here has been positively dry and snow free.

Edited December 19, 2011 by crepuscular ray

[yamkin]

Earth Directed CME - 25th December 2011

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X4BjT5s-VRM

[yamkin]

Three Eruptions On Christmas Morning, All Producing CME's

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c8-om6xrYgI

[yamkin]

SOLAR ACTIVITY UPDATE More Christmas Day ActionC5.5 and C8.4-Class Flare - 25th December

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I4iDIDMp7Sk

[The PIT]

Remember Noaa are copunting the smallest specs which wouldn't have been detectable not very long ago. This makes comaparrisons very hard.

There was a website that used the old method measuring but I can't remember it's name or link.

Here we go http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/50

Edited December 25, 2011 by The PIT

[GeorgeWX]

Plenty of flare action over the last 48 hours. On Christmas morning is a long duration C class flare with cme that is heading in our direction and a second C class flare occuring today at noon released another cme that looks like it's earth directed. The latter cme seems to be moving much faster than the first and is also more dense.

I'll shortly be setting up a computer that works properly so will catch up with current events and post again later tonight.

[shuggee]

Good! Been missing your insightful updates George

[yamkin]

Plenty of flare action over the last 48 hours. On Christmas morning is a long duration C class flare with cme that is heading in our direction and a second C class flare occuring today at noon released another cme that looks like it's earth directed. The latter cme seems to be moving much faster than the first and is also more dense.

I'll shortly be setting up a computer that works properly so will catch up with current events and post again later tonight.

Good to see you back GeorgeWX, The first of the CME's is due tomorrow. http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080/IswaSystemWebApp/iSWACygnetStreamer?timestamp=2038-01-23+00%3A44%3A00&window=-1&cygnetId=261

[GeorgeWX]

Thanks guys its good to get back on and hope you all had a good Christmas.

Three cme's in total are on route and as Yamkin states the first should arrive in the next 24 hours.

cme 1 is a result of an unstable filament centrally located on the solar surface erupting early on xmas morning. We will detect the arrival of this cme but on it's own shouldn't influence our magnetic field too much as velocity (400km/s) and cloud density are both on the low side.

cme number 2 is the game changer and has the potential to provoke major geomagnetic storming when it arrives. It is the result of a large filament eruption during the M4 flare around sunspot 1387 on Christmas day. A bright eruption and fast too, probably around 1000km/s, it will arrive sometime tomorrow a few hours after the first cme or both may arrive together in a tangled mess of magnetic complexity. Mid-latitude aurora is likely during the passage. Kp values between 5 and 6 likely and kp7 to 8 possible late tomorrow and during Thursday.

cme number 3 emerged from around the area of earth facing sunspot 1384 on Boxing day with a full halo cme visible on Lasco c3. It should have enough energy to unsettle the magnetic field late on 29/12 or early 30/12 with potential for minor storming.

Solar activity during this period was moderate with 3 flares measuring M1 or higher and 5 flares that measured above C5.

Today's sun

Sunspot and SFI graph for November/December

Edited December 27, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[Love Snow]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2079352/Massive-solar-storm-knock-radio-signals-produce-amazing-Northern-Lights.html?ito=feeds-newsxml

[Crepuscular Ray]

http://www.dailymail...o=feeds-newsxml

Chuckle.

[Polar Maritime]

Hi WX.

Could you tell me if this recent Solar activity will produce any kind of Aurora activity.

And if so how far South could this be visible, If weather conditions are on our side ?

Thanks.

[Crepuscular Ray]

Snowrob, as George isn't around, my thoughts are "Despite the prognostications of the Daily Mail, not a lot in the UK's neck of the woods". The CME/flare is unlikely to have been strong enough to cause anything any farther south than the Arctic Circle.

Edit: George is around. He's probably got a more informed opinion.

Edited December 28, 2011 by crepuscular ray

[GeorgeWX]

http://www.dailymail...o=feeds-newsxml

A slow news day perhaps?

Hi WX.

Could you tell me if this recent Solar activity will produce any kind of Aurora activity.

And if so how far South could this be visible, If weather conditions are on our side ?

Thanks.

For us in the UK to get the chance to see aurora tonight there are a few factors to consider aside the weather.

Firstly the arrival time of the 2nd cme is important, right now would be a good time as it gives europe and the uk front row seats during the peak of the geomagnetic storm that will occur for several hours after the cme arrives. If the expected cme arrives say at 1am uk time, the US will be best positioned for aurora and we are likely to miss out. The Northern Lights has the furthest southerly extent where it is local midnight time.

The second factor is what influence the incoming cme has on our magnetic field as it sweeps in with the solar wind. Opposing magnetic fields would buffer the wind and shield the planet, resulting in a bit of a let down for anyone expecting a huge geomagnetic storm, or magnetic fields could connect, letting protons and electrons pour in to the north and south polar regions.

Third is the speed and density of the wind as cme number 2 arrives. it should announce it's arrival with a wind speed above 6 or 700km/s as it left the solar surface at around 1000km/s and traveled along a clear path thanks to cme number 1. cme 1 arrived this morning at 9am and we are still under the effects of this. Despite the fact that our magnetic field is only slightly unsettled due to this first cme, the wind density is quite high at the moment which will further fuel the effects of the 2nd cme when it hits. Higher wind density = more protons and electrons = brighter aurora. It would be nice to see it arrive right now, failing that hold it till tomorrow around 7 or 8pm!!!

If all that wasn't complicated enough then it's worth pointing out that the southern polar coronal hole has extended some distance to the north on the solar surface, to the degree that it will probably influence the incoming solar wind tomorrow, Friday and maybe even Saturday as well. Coronal holes are responsible for emitting faster than normal streams of wind that can weaken our magnetic field, causing the aurora to extend further south than usual. Combining the expected cme with the ch wind stream would result in a persistent period of minor to major storming.

Best advice is to keep your eye on the ball during the next 24 hour period both on possible aurora activity as well as solar activity. If old sol spits any earth directed cme's during the next 12 hours it may result in aurora while toasting the new year.

Southern polar coronal hole extending towards the solar equator.

Edited December 28, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[yamkin]

Thanks guys its good to get back on and hope you all had a good Christmas.

Three cme's in total are on route and as Yamkin states the first should arrive in the next 24 hours.

cme 1 is a result of an unstable filament centrally located on the solar surface erupting early on xmas morning. We will detect the arrival of this cme but on it's own shouldn't influence our magnetic field too much as velocity (400km/s) and cloud density are both on the low side.

cme number 2 is the game changer and has the potential to provoke major geomagnetic storming when it arrives. It is the result of a large filament eruption during the M4 flare around sunspot 1387 on Christmas day. A bright eruption and fast too, probably around 1000km/s, it will arrive sometime tomorrow a few hours after the first cme or both may arrive together in a tangled mess of magnetic complexity. Mid-latitude aurora is likely during the passage. Kp values between 5 and 6 likely and kp7 to 8 possible late tomorrow and during Thursday.

cme number 3 emerged from around the area of earth facing sunspot 1384 on Boxing day with a full halo cme visible on Lasco c3. It should have enough energy to unsettle the magnetic field late on 29/12 or early 30/12 with potential for minor storming.

Solar activity during this period was moderate with 3 flares measuring M1 or higher and 5 flares that measured above C5.

Today's sun

Sunspot and SFI graph for November/December

And there's this to add to the party!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mbGCL12XELY

[Crepuscular Ray]

NNOA have 20-40% for high-latitude. Doesn't bode well for viewing chances for anyone south of the Arctic Circle. The interplanetary magnetic field is north, which minimizes the chance even more. Not only that, the Daily Mail were going well OTT prognosticating something that might disrupt radio communications for days (even though the risk of storming they reported was classed as "minor"), which would have needed a major M or even X-class flare/major CME to produce, i.e. something approaching the 1989 X-class event that blacked out large parts of Canada and the US eastern seaboard and caused aurorae that were visible even in Sussex.

Cool video, Yamkin, although if it does become a sunsplatter/vaporizer rather than a sungrazer, the likelihood is that it won't hit an Earth-facing bit of the Sun.