Has UK warming now gone up to Stage 3

[North-Easterly Blast]

It is now appropriate to start this thread.

Looking at CETs over the past 20 years, it is clear that there have been two occasions when warming has taken place and set a stable trend for a number of years to follow.

1988 - early 1997:

Generally warmer than any other period in the CET series, but occasional cold seasons and months 2C below average still occurred, and occasional notable winter cold spells. It is clear that the trend set in 1988 continued virtually the same with no change until 1997. Winters generally mild, although some very mild ones but a couple of cold ones too.

Early 1997 - mid 2006:

Consistently warm, with annual CETs well above 10*C. No cold seasons, or notably cold months 2C below average, but with the occasional average to even slightly below season and the occasional cold month (0.5-1C below average), in most years. It is clear that the trend set in early 1997 continued stable at the same level until at least mid 2006. A very mild winter at the start, but thereafter most winters generally mild with the occasional cold spell and at best the occasional "average" winter.

Mid 2006 onwards:

When you look at the CETs since June of last year, it should make meteorologists wonder if the UK warming has now entered a third stage, since many months have come in at 2*C or more above average, and whether annual CETs of around 11*C will become the norm for the next decade, and if even the occasional colder than average months of the last ten years are now no longer likely. It is true to say that unless a warming of "synoptics" and "weather types" occurred the greatest annual CET that I would say is realistically possible is 11.5*C, and that many winters for the next ten years could stabilise and resemble 88-89, 89-90, 97-98 etc.

What does everyone make of the above, do you think the UK warming has now entered stage three, and that the sort of positive CET monthly anomalies we have seen since last June are likely to become the norm over the next ten years?

[Bottesford]

Too smaller period to tell really. Certainly since June its been consistantly warm (except August, sort of) and if this were to continue throughout 2007 (as it so far is) then I'd tend to agree that another change has taken place.

I think if we see another searing hot summer people are really going to take note. Much as I love hot summers - it is a tad worrying.

[Upgrade]

Its very interesting that we have had (sure someone that will correct me if i'm wrong) quite a period now showing temps of several degrees above average. If the whole year now is 2 or 3 degrees above average and you have a run starting Jun 06 - Dec 07 with maybe just the odd month average, then people will start to be concerned. Weeks of 30 deg+ temps this summer again would make people notice. What are the chances of having a repeat of the 1995, 2003 and 2006 seasons with anomolously high temps persisting over long periods of the year ?

A statistician would say the chances of a hot summer like last year are pretty low i'd guess, these events happen rarely, looking at the CET record. if i was a betting man, i'd wager against it and say we're due a cool rainy summer and autumn in 2007 . Maybe this year is the one where we notice a step upwards to higher temperatures more permanently? It will be pretty freaky if we stay 2 or 3 degrees above average throughout this year - this isn't supposed to happen til the year 2070!

Edited January 31, 2007 by jimmyay

[SP1986]

I'd say that even if this summer wasnt extreme if we were consistently seeing unsettled conditions + temperatures around or just above 17-18°C as maximum daytime averages then there is a trend.

Right now we should, in theory be alluding to a chilly day under HP but were not as it's cloudy windy and double figures.

The problem is here is that if you ask people for their opinions you won't get any sense out of them it's a waste of time. I can be sure most people on here, myself included (in the past anyway) will say "you cant prove global warming in 20 years of changes", and then the same person will pop up somewhere else saying "Global warming is a worrying fast acting problem that is picking up momentum"

I would tend to agree that the longer it goes on, the faster it will pick up pace and I do believe it is part of a warming trend myself. 20 years is a long time according to climate change computers and I think warming may happen earlier than they assume. If this really is the rapid change to global warming, then other parts of the world will be accelarating at an even more astonishing rate. Take a look at the USA during the next 20 years, the chances are their snowfall events will decline right down.

[Weather-history]

The period 1988-1995 climaxed with the warmest 12 month CET period on record Nov 1994-Oct 1995. Then there was a crash from Dec 1995-Jan 1997 then followed another warming phase.

You could say there was another crash from mid November 2005 to mid March 2006, mild weather was pretty rare in that period and this was followed another warming phase or perhaps we are going through another climax again, another 1994-95 period then comes the collapse.

One or two others have mentioned on other sites have we gone up a gear again as regards to warming.

Edited January 31, 2007 by Mr_Data

[Gray-Wolf]

To all who need more time to decide.....WE DON'T HAVE MORE TIME.............thank you.

[VillagePlank]

If the average CET for , say, July is 20C at expected warming is to be around 5C over the next n years, then 30C cannot be attributed to global warming can it?

[Mondy]

Mother Nature ain't to be messed with peeps - don't worry, she'll see to -20c and below over the coming years.

Cycles have their highs and lows.

Interesting choice of title --- UK Warming! Another dose of gloom written all over it, perhaps..

Besides, aren't Climate Change and Global Warming two completely different issues?

Edited January 31, 2007 by Mondy

[Wynn D Woo]

To all who need more time to decide.....WE DON'T HAVE MORE TIME.............thank you.

You would be better preaching to the US, China, India etc - the UK cannot make any difference alone.

[Bottesford]

The period 1988-1995 climaxed with the warmest 12 month CET period on record Nov 1994-Oct 1995. Then there was a crash from Dec 1995-Jan 1997 then followed another warming phase.

You could say there was another crash from mid November 2005 to mid March 2006, mild weather was pretty rare in that period and this was followed another warming phase or perhaps we are going through another climax again, another 1994-95 period then comes the collapse.

One or two others have mentioned on other sites have we gone up a gear again as regards to warming.

Interesting stuff there - I wonder if the peaks are getting higher & the troughs less severe? In theory, we're due another drop soon then although with it predicted to be the warmest year on record globally who knows. Lets hope the drop comes next autumn/winter and not early summer!

[Gray-Wolf]

You would be better preaching to the US, China, India etc - the UK cannot make any difference alone.

I have it in mind that token efforts will be made by all comers when the next 5years has shown what climate change means to both global social stability and global ecconomic stability.

Sadly we are too late now to halt the immediate changes and we will be too late then.

Our climate can be likend to a supertanker under breaking, it takes a long time (in both time and distance) to stop one and so it is with the planet. Once she has a 'head of steam' it'll take many years to slow, halt and reverse any trend.

By that time the 'Nay Sayers' will be full of wisdom as to how would could have avoided it all (it's in their nature you see and as the Fox found out from Mr Scorpian you can't change a beings 'nature'). ;-)

[disco-barry]

Right can somebody point out a couple of things to me as i admit i haven't read much up on this i just hear bits in the media from God...no sorry tony bliar so i want to know this.....

1) Why can't the earth just be warming up? i'm sure it has done this in the past so i can't understand why it 'has' to be us.

2) What differance does what the Government want to do here make when China/Russia and the USA don't give much of a f'ck?

Just asking so no shouting, especially from you ya bridger.

[Gray-Wolf]

Just asking so no shouting, especially from you ya bridger.

SSsssshhhh, nobody knows our reputation on here!!!

[Snowly does it]

I have it in mind that token efforts will be made by all comers when the next 5years has shown what climate change means to both global social stability and global ecconomic stability.

Sadly we are too late now to halt the immediate changes and we will be too late then.

I agree GW, it will be a capitalist version of action - carbon trading schemes and the like, which will be of no use whatsoever. In the mantime the indolent will continue to pollute, fly on the cheap to cheap and nasty foreign resorts and generally moan about the weather they have helped create.

As for phase 3, I doubt it. More likely it is a series of months unburdened by any particular cooling forcing and aided by the developing El Nino. The general trend remains and remains unchecked.

When compared to the last 10 years (an appropriate timeframe to look at when one is considering lurches within phases)...

The first 4 months of the year were all lower than their 10 year rolling mean predecessors (Feb and March significantly so, more than 1.5 degrees lower), May was 0.2 above so par, June was 1 degree above, July obviously very significantly warmer, August nearly a degree lower, September obviously very very high, October 2 degrees again, November half a degree so around the short term average and December 1.4 degrees above.

July, September, October the stand outs I'd say. No gear change, just an upward trend with a synoptically hot middle to late period and a poor winter on the back of it.

[Snowyowl9]

I was thinking about this yesterday about past winters and the early 80s bitter then 85/87 the cold spell returned big time then feb 1991 was bitter 95/97 was the highlight of the mid 90`s Jan 2001 was cold followed by feb 2005/March 2006.

Anyway strange why the cold spells are in a pattern 80/82:85/87:Feb91:95/97:Jan2001/2005/06 not lasting so long either.

[Mondy]

i haven't read much up on this i just hear bits in the media

That's where you're going wrong! The meedja...

I'm also keen to know if anyone can establish a link with the current ever-lasting HP over these shores and 'warming'[in general] --- isn't it just one of these things? A natural occurence? For the life of me, i can't see how a blocking high (over the AO) is, perhaps, being construed as a climatic change/warming with the current temps being reported. I'm hoping you understand what i mean...

...I really can see it now - those not in the know; not weather orientated etc and blaming the current high temps on Global Warming..get a life..it's a plain old HP quite happy not to move - nothing more..

[disco-barry]

I'm inclined to go with Mondy because nobody has proved otherwise to me yet...btw i don't listen to the media which is why i am here questioning it all lol

Can anybody give me a link/chart to the CET of each year whatever since records began?

Edited January 31, 2007 by disco-barry

[Don]

Well this is something I've mentioned recently about whether global warming moved up into third gear last year? I think at this stage it's too early to tell, but looking at the months since May, bar August they have all been way above average with two being record breaking and and a few others being near record breaking. It would seem that something has changed. The question now being, is it a blip or will it continue for the next decade or so before reaching fourth gear of warming?! January looks to turn out a monthly CET of 7C. If the cold spell of last week hadn't occured, this would have comfortably been the warmest January on record, making it three records breaking warm months out of the last seven

I think (hope) February will bring a closer to average month, but my confidence isn't too high on that at the moment.

Don

[Mondy]

Hi Don

If the cold spell of last week hadn't occured, this would have comfortably been the warmest January on record, making it three records breaking warm months out of the last seven

I'm certainly not disecting your post, the above, to me, is factual..

But, i'm a sceptic - it'll take some input to change me, but hey-ho.. --anyway, back to the point above. When did the records officially begin? Don't you think for a minute previous records haven't been broken? We just didn't know about them..

Again, i'm a huge sceptic, prolly one of the biggest, but i'm damned if i'll agree with some of the nonsense being spouted (not just on here) about GW and climate change. To repeat from earlier, these differences come in cycles.

Global Warming is a myth, tax burdening problem, not aided by parish-pub drivel shouted out by the news..

Sorry, Don, this wasn't aimed at you - just get a little irate at times!!!

[Admiral_Bobski]

Generally speaking I am in agreement with Mondy (though not with such strong wording, perhaps! ), but just to comment on the quote he used from Don:

If the cold spell of last week hadn't occured, this would have comfortably been the warmest January on record, making it three records breaking warm months out of the last seven

I have to confess it does bug me a bit when people (not a dig at you, Don!) say things like this. If it hadn't been for the cold spell of last week...? But the monthly CET is an average temperature, and an average is taken over a period of time, taking all peaks and troughs into account - the fact is that the cold spell of last week did happen and, as a result, this January is unlikely (just) to be a record-breaking month. It's kind of like saying "I would have won the lottery last night if all of my numbers had come up." If they didn't then it's fairly irrelevant.

C-Bob

[Snowly does it]

If the cold spell of last week hadn't occured, this would have comfortably been the warmest January on record, making it three records breaking warm months out of the last seven

January has been another very warm month Don I agree, however that statement I don't really hold with. We could say if there hadn't been storms and wind holding up temperatures and a predominately SWrly flow then January would have been much cooler. We can't pick and choose bits of months, the records show the whole package which will always have peaks and troughs.

The question for me has gone well beyond 'is it getting warmer' to 'what are we going to do?' The time for questions and hypotheses is long gone now. Regardless of man's impact, mankind CAN act more responsibly for the planet and should, it is not about climate change or warming, although those are current and obvious effects, its about respect for the planet, its flora, fauna and people and a legacy of harmony that if there are any out there to see it may find one day on a quiet, peaceful and beautiful planet that has ceaseless wonder.

[Admiral_Bobski]

Oh, forgot to say that (if anyone didn't know) the warmest recorded January CET was way back in 1916...

C-Bob

[disco-barry]

1916??????

Who did they blame then Hitler?

So far i cannot see an arguement of to why GW apparently exists and why our government is for want of better words....raping us.

[Don]

Hi Don

I'm certainly not disecting your post, the above, to me, is factual..

But, i'm a sceptic - it'll take some input to change me, but hey-ho.. --anyway, back to the point above. When did the records officially begin? Don't you think for a minute previous records haven't been broken? We just didn't know about them..

Again, i'm a huge sceptic, prolly one of the biggest, but i'm damned if i'll agree with some of the nonsense being spouted (not just on here) about GW and climate change. To repeat from earlier, these differences come in cycles.

Global Warming is a myth, tax burdening problem, not aided by parish-pub drivel shouted out by the news..

Sorry, Don, this wasn't aimed at you - just get a little irate at times!!!

Hi Mondy

Well the official temperature records date back to 1659 which in the terms of our World isn't long at all and yes I do believe that records were broken before this date. Whilst I talk about global warming, I am also a bit of a sceptic about it being down to Human behaviour and as you say these things come in cycles. The World has warmed and cooled significantly in the past and this certainly had nothing to do with Human behaviour!

So while our world at present is warming, I believe it is probably part of a natural cycle, perhaps enhanced a little by Human activity, but not to the extent that the media etc would have us believe. It is a case though of how long will the warming last and how much will our World actually warm before peaking?

Cheers

Don

[Admiral_Bobski]

1916??????

Who did they blame then Hitler?

So far i cannot see an arguement of to why GW apparently exists and why our government is for want of better words....raping us.

They'll probably blame the First World War, since 1916 was slap bang in the middle and there were all those terrible polluting balsa-wood single-prop biplanes and the first tanks and so on...

I think the government is quite happy to use GW as the perfect alibi for said rape...

Grim stuff

C-Bob