06z model discussions - wet and windy soon?!

[karyo]

Edited as off topic - please post about the media forecasts in the relevant discussion.

[Paul]

We've added a couple of new ensemble maps to the free viewer this morning:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=...wer;type=panel;

We're also hoping to have them updating in a similar way to the GFS (ie as each file comes in the images will update) instead of them all updating once all the data has arrived in. This will enable you to view the runs much earlier..

[mushymanrob]

Still that is a cracking chart IMO. :lol:

is it?... i dont see any snow on that run for the bulk of the uk, higher ground as ever being the exception.. this run equates to a plume in summer missing the uk by a few miles and hitting the low countries northward. so near but so far.

although yesterdays runs showed easterlies, channel lows, etc they just hadnt got the same deep rooted scource as the famous charts of the 80's had. rampers look like they have been guilty yet again jumping the gun, seeing /interpreting what they want to see. id love a blizzard, a proper dumping... but hey, im old enough to know that when it comes to snow events its never in the can until it actually snows, especially in this day and age.

[TEITS]

Interesting to see the prospects of N blocking continue to show their hand in FI.

You can see the trend of rising SLP in the Aberdeen ensembles

I might aswell discuss FI because nobody has a clue what is going to happen this week and although the GFS is different today compared to yesterdays runs the trend continues which is promising IMO.

Thanks to the wonderful NW Extra which someone kindly paid for me :lol:

Edited February 5, 2007 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[Frosty.]

Despite the latest output the experts still suggest a significant threat of disruptive snow on wed/thurs for southern england, the midlands and wales. They will not firm up on this until tomorrow night. I hope these low pressures remain southerly tracking as it will maintain the cold airflow up here until the end of next weekend or beyond.

[VillagePlank]

Most of it comes from watching each GFS run come out and so many members paying lip service to every single output it shows.

Indeed, and that is, I'm afraid, the point of this thread.

[Glacier Point]

Fax charts will be the best guidance on offer at the moment and IMO these are considerably better for snow prospects than the 06z GFS. The first potential is from the shallow low moving in Wednesday:

http://85.214.49.20/pics/brack1a.gif

Thursday sees a seconday feature bumping up against some likely cold air at the surface Midlands northwards (thicknesses don't look quite so good so elevations likely to be important).

http://85.214.49.20/pics/brack2a.gif

Thereafter we see sub 528 air swept back southwards before the main system attempts to approach from the SW:

http://85.214.49.20/pics/brack3a.gif

with potential for an hour or two leading edge snowfall even down to lower levesl and the milder air wins out eventually but probably not without a fight.

Even at this range the GFS is errant.

GP

[The Eagle]

is it?... i dont see any snow on that run for the bulk of the uk, higher ground as ever being the exception.. this run equates to a plume in summer missing the uk by a few miles and hitting the low countries northward. so near but so far.

although yesterdays runs showed easterlies, channel lows, etc they just hadnt got the same deep rooted scource as the famous charts of the 80's had. rampers look like they have been guilty yet again jumping the gun, seeing /interpreting what they want to see. id love a blizzard, a proper dumping... but hey, im old enough to know that when it comes to snow events its never in the can until it actually snows, especially in this day and age.

Eh? When did I ever say there was going to be a blizzard?

That is a good chart IMO. Admittedly if your north of the front but thats a traditional frontal snow chart really. Whether or not we have acquired enough cold air at that stage - we dont know but I never 'ramped' up this event.

[TEITS]

Indeed, and that is, I'm afraid, the point of this thread.

The point of this thread is discuss all the models and im afraid some seem the think the GFS is all that excists. We just assume the GFS is right because of past disappointments but meteorogically speaking this isn't the right way of finding the solution.

One of the other problems is expectations. I said this during the last cold spell that some people become disappointed even though the models didn't even forecast snow for their locations in the first place. The last cold spell was a great example because where snow actually fell was exactly where the models predicted and yet some members were disappointed.

If you have noticed not once have I referred to snowfall in my location on any of my posts for the simple reason why should I when the models don't agree at +48hrs!!.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Despite the latest output the experts still suggest a significant threat of disruptive snow on wed/thurs for southern england, the midlands and wales. They will not firm up on this until tomorrow night. I hope these low pressures remain southerly tracking as it will maintain the cold airflow up here until the end of next weekend or beyond.

you have to bare in mind though that forcasters will probably not start to use 6z data untill later this afternoon. I would say on current model output chances of snow are

south - 20%

midlands - 40%

north - 60%

scotland 80%

highlands 100%

Edited February 5, 2007 by Paul
Please comment on website forecasts in the media section

[mushymanrob]

Eh? When did I ever say there was going to be a blizzard?

That is a good chart IMO. Admittedly if your north of the front but thats a traditional frontal snow chart really. Whether or not we have acquired enough cold air at that stage - we dont know but I never 'ramped' up this event.

oh sorry let me clarify...

i was only quoting you from the 'good chart' point.... i dont think it is for snow...

the rest was a general take on some points raised on the previous runs, not aimed at you

TEITS..... i only use the gfs and fax, partly because of time restraints and partly because im of the opinion that viewing too many outputs can confuse things... picking and chosing which run to promote depending upon what various people want to see. i havnt the interest, time or knowlege to analise all the various outputs but i do have the greatest respect for those of you who do. i base my comments on experience after watching with interest synoptic charts for 40 years.

[grab my graupel]

The point of this thread is discuss all the models and im afraid some seem the think the GFS is all that excists. We just assume the GFS is right because of past disappointments but meteorogically speaking this isn't the right way of finding the solution.

One of the other problems is expectations. I said this during the last cold spell that some people become disappointed even though the models didn't even forecast snow for their locations in the first place. The last cold spell was a great example because where snow actually fell was exactly where the models predicted and yet some members were disappointed.

If you have noticed not once have I referred to snowfall in my location on any of my posts for the simple reason why should I when the models don't agree at +48hrs!!.

Yeah spot on there Dave as was Tamara,

I decided to sit on the fence a little lastnight with the situation being so knife edge

and I suggested then that some might be a little dissapointed as minor

changes can make huge differences in such setups.

However I still believe that where there is disagreement there is still hope,

and as always, more runs are needed before we can get a real picture.

I don't think it is all doom and gloom just yet and still as fascinating as ever.

I am looking forward also to seeing how the rest of the winter pans out.

By the way, I'm glad to here you have got Netweather Xtra now, as it will

help you to spot the Beast before the rest of us

Brian

[VillagePlank]

People are free to interpret what they like from the models, but I'm not sure that taking literally at face value what the output shows is the wisest way to proceed.

That is my point

I agree with what you say.

However, if some people enjoy the rollercoaster, then why criticise them for it?

[The Eagle]

oh sorry let me clarify...

i was only quoting you from the 'good chart' point.... i dont think it is for snow...

Oh rite, sry

Perhaps the fact its been a good while since we have seen a chart like that it could be clouding your judgement (or mine for that matter) but superficially at least I think its a good chart. On meteociel the 850s are sub -6 for most and the 528 DAM is directly ahead of the front. Of course there are many other asspects but like I say it looks a good chart.

Edited February 5, 2007 by Darkman

[grab my graupel]

I agree with what you say.

However, if some people enjoy the rollercoaster, then why criticise them for it?

I think though some set themselves up for a downfall,

and it's how you handle that downfall afterwards.

[VillagePlank]

Yes, but then that's the privelige of 20/20 hindsight, and by virtue of experience of working with computer modelling output.

[nick sussex]

The point of this thread is discuss all the models and im afraid some seem the think the GFS is all that excists. We just assume the GFS is right because of past disappointments but meteorogically speaking this isn't the right way of finding the solution.

One of the other problems is expectations. I said this during the last cold spell that some people become disappointed even though the models didn't even forecast snow for their locations in the first place. The last cold spell was a great example because where snow actually fell was exactly where the models predicted and yet some members were disappointed.

If you have noticed not once have I referred to snowfall in my location on any of my posts for the simple reason why should I when the models don't agree at +48hrs!!.

Great post Dave.

Given the model output I should be throwing my toys out of the pram as I really dont think at present theres too much to be excitied about this close to the south coast.

If someone made me give a forecast right here right now I'd go for this being a more midlands northwards event, including your location! It may come as a shock to a few people but I'm not obsessed about snow but more just seasonal temps during winter, I absolutely love sunshine and frost, snow is always a bonus in this country! I feel quite lucky that I saw decent snow a few weeks back and theres been many a winter when I've hardly seen a flake, so good luck to those that havent seen any and I hope theres a few pleasant surprises.

Disclaimer( my thoughts are in regards to the overall model output as of today and the current trend) as we've seen lots can change, that was just to make sure my fellow southerners dont come after me because I dissed our snow prospects!

[TEITS]

By the way, I'm glad to here you have got Netweather Xtra now, as it will

help you to spot the Beast before the rest of us

Brian

Well the beast is looming and I might let him out of the cage around mid month onwards.

You know reading some of the posts I think some need to have a little more faith in the Met O. Some seem to assume the GFS is right and those at the Met O headquarters are wrong even though they are professionals with far more data available. So in otherwords unless you see the fax charts downgrade then continue to be optimistic.

[Snowyowl9]

The first runs I looked at now was the ECM and I was chuffed to bits then I saw the fax charts which are stunning

Left the GFS to last thinking it would be the same but it does this sort of thing at this range I`ve noticed recently only to uprade at the last minute.

I`m going by the fax charts anyway now it`s still going to be a battleground and last minute changes will happen 24 hours out.

FI is 3 days now.

http://85.214.49.20/pics/brack3.gif

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_00_UTC/84_30.gif

[Darren Bown]

I'm only a novice looking at the charts, and I hope I'm reading them right, but does the GFS suggest a return to zonality from +77 onwards?

Hasnt GFS been predicting somewhat of a longer cold spell before today?

Also, is this to be taken with a pinch of salt, as isn't 06z run one of the less reliable?

Cheers

Daz

[grab my graupel]

You know reading some of the posts I think some need to have a little more faith in the Met O. Some seem to assume the GFS is right and those at the Met O headquarters are wrong even though they are professionals with far more data available. So in otherwords unless you see the fax charts downgrade then continue to be optimistic.

Yes agreed and the key word used by the Met Office Yesterday was

UNCERTAINTY. Which to me is exactly what we have.

[mushymanrob]

. On meteociel the 850s are sub -6 for most and the 528 DAM is directly ahead of the front. Of course there are many other asspects but like I say it looks a good chart.

im expecting the temps to rise though as the front comes in, i agree its a classic frontal snow chart but im not expecting much if anything. if it doesnt settle it doesnt count! lol.

[R.P. McMurphy]

Yes Daz, you have to take this 06Z as a Glitch in my opinion. I don't see how a run can just come crashing down like this. The 12Z is the most reliable Run of the GFS.

FAX charts still looking good though....

[Harsh Climate]

Hmm.. theres a lot of of disagreement in the models at the moment....

Its the GFS,NOGAPS,JMA V ECMWF,UKMO,GEM,FAX CHARTS

POOR:

GFS: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1202.png

NOGAPS: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rngp1202.gif

JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1442.gif

GOOD:

ECMWF: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif

UKMO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif

GEM: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1202.gif

USAF: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/semb120.gif

Looking at the variation in model output has cheered me up some what! There are some very big players (exluding GEM) in our favour at the moment, so it aint all over yet! But the GFS and JMA have performmed quite well recently and we do need to see the GFS get back on board as quickly as possible. I feel that this evenings output will be vital in whether or not we get a quick breakdown or not...

If the ecmwf and ukmo follow in the footsteps of the last few gfs runs the chances of a quick breakdown to mild/wet weather will be about 90%+, but if the we get a good 12z run from the gfs and continued support from the ECMWF/UKMO models I think we could be in for a very eventfull weeks weather!

Edit: I think the key revolves around whether or not we get a low pressure moveing near southern areas at around 78h, dragging in a feed of air from the east behind it.. And prolonging the straight southwesterlies from taking over.

Edited February 5, 2007 by Jed Bickerdike

[mushymanrob]

Yes agreed and the key word used by the Met Office Yesterday was

UNCERTAINTY. Which to me is exactly what we have.

tbh i think they are just saying that to cover themselves in the (remote) event of a major dumping... or even a minor one (lol...london!) ... should occur.

GOOD:

ECMWF: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif

UKMO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif

GEM: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1202.gif

actually they arnt that good, those charts far from convince me that there will be much snow about, except for the highland areas.