Cold spell general discussion pt3 (merged with snow event)

[NorthYorksWeather]

anyone know whether the snow will reach york tomorow?, thanks

[nanu]

Seeing as the models cannot determine whether it will be snow or rain, I'd go for a safe bet and say that London & the south east get nothing but sleety snow, then turning readily to rain by midday, and nothing but a washout !

This is based on experience, I can never forget a few years ago when on South East news one evening on a Wednesday, the BBC were predicting a very heavy and persistant spell of snow for the whole of the eastern region running up to East Anglia and the midlands and southern England from the east on the Thursday, with Peter Cockcroft in Kent with snowploghers and gritters at the ready reporting on the event which once we woke up to it, it was sleet, then rain, and no snow whatsoever. The BBC actually apologised on the weather for this region on the Thursday, and said that the system that was due to cause a spell of snow actually originated from the Baltics and it was picking up warmish moist air on it's path and resulting in nothing but a endless rain and sleety mix once it hit british soil.

A Massive let down to snowlovers in the South East that time, and I can only predict this again for us I'm afraid.

ISouth East: Sleety rain, then drizzle.

Warm Regards,

Gregg

I noticed warm regards... you just dont like snow

I know what you mean tho from previous years. But then again even sky news is now saying heavy snow for london, seen gritters pasting the road all over the place down here. BBC just said saying 10cm or more for my area and the commuters to face in the morning rush hour. hmmm cant see your forcast being right

But as you said they have been wrong before and even im only putting a 60% chance in the mets faith on this coming off.

[Bobby]

Do you still think it's looking good for the Welsh Valleys? ~200m ASL.

Also, I can now see the high cloud from The Beast rolling in from the South. This place is going to fun tonight and tomorrow!

Edited February 7, 2007 by Magpie

[suffolkboy_]

Was I the coldest last night with a low of -9.5C? I backed this up with another 2 thermometers which were both in agreement, its amazing how 2 inches of snow on the ground can make temperatures plummet! Just a shame it can't be an official figure! Chester was apparently the official low with -8.6C

[cat0511]

i've got a really good feeling about this one guys! i'm in the far se corner so prob nothing major for me, i need an easterly but i can't see central england etc... not getting a hammering on this one for a start the bbc have put their necks on the line big time and that is a rarety so for them to be ramping on the breakfast show aswell! .... it's just got to happen !

[Thundery wintry showers]

The Thursday/Saturday events are still up in the air, as although the GFS goes for a snow to rain event on Thursday, and wrong side of marginal on Saturday, the UKMO, and to some extent ECMWF as well, suggest greater chances on Saturday, with precipitation staying on the wintry side on Thursday in the north. Still up in the air.

Cleadon dodged the showers till I logged off and went to bed- then a hail shower commenced, and then a snow shower. Around midnight there was quite a heavy snow shower, which took the snow cover total to 2cm; showers were very light and well scattered after that. Still 2cm now although I get the impression that most of it will melt in the sun this afternoon- this N'ly is quite a slack affair meaning that nights are decidedly cold, but days are also relatively warm with an expected max of around 4C.

Looking at the GFS output (which is less good for snow lovers than UKMO and ECMWF) there should be more snow showers in the North East tonight as we pick up a slight easterly.

[MKN]

Interesting how the bbc are thinking the snow should be coming in by around 1am tonight for my area and having dissapated by 12noon on thursday. Im also interested to see what the updated weather warnings from the met office will bring at 11am

[Interitus]

It all depends on how far north the snow/sleet/rain band travels, and what intensity is has if/when it does get here. Maybe some of the high roads going across the pennines will be gridlocked, but unless the precipitation retains it's intensity if/when it get's to the North West, it will probably be like Stephen said. A couple of hours of a wintery mix, before turning back to sleet/rain.

I would have sacrifised any snow for tomorrow, if it meant seeing more on Saturday, but that doesn't look to be on the cards now.

Depending on the easterly wind I wouldn't be surprised to see the typical bifurcation of this precipitation where the east and west parts of northwest England see significant snowfall whereas in the centre - Wigan, Warrington etc this is substantially reduced by subsidance over the Pennines. Happens as often as not - watch those radar sigs.

[reef]

The dewpoint has now risen to 0.1°C in my location. Although some areas will no doubt recieve significant snow tomorrow, this is still a very marginal event. Unless the cold air digs in more tonight, I fear here at least, all we'll get is rain and maybe sleet. Elevation will no doubt help, but at present I dont believe the air is quite cold enough aloft, meaning areas close to the coast on lower ground may not see much of an event.

Edited February 7, 2007 by reef

[Thundery wintry showers]

The dewpoint has now risen to 0.1°C in my location. Although some areas will no doubt recieve significant snow tomorrow, this is still a very marginal event. Unless the cold air digs in more tonight, I fear here at least, all we'll get a rain and maybe sleet. Elevation will no doubt help, but at present I dont believe the air is quite cold enough aloft, meaning areas close to the coast on lower ground may not see much of an event.

I actually agree; the snow I've had in Cleadon was assisted by there only being a very slight north/north-easterly drift. When the easterly picks up off the North Sea it will warm up; I think the frontal band will produce snow inland, but only sleet/wet snow near the coast.

If we could tap into those cold ENE'lys (<-10C at 850hPa) to the north-east of the battleground, I reckon that the airmass would be cold enough to bring falling and settling snow to the coast even with a strong onshore wind, but this looks unlikely at the moment.

[Big Bear]

Can anyone tell me how they think the south downs will do? i.e. Cissbury & Chanctonbury Ring?

I live only a couple of miles from the coast so will I even see wet snow/ sleet/ or nothing but rain?

I am doubtful of seeing anything on the ground other than puddles... hopefully someone can better this??

HELP?!

[snowdrifter]

Depending on the easterly wind I wouldn't be surprised to see the typical bifurcation of this precipitation where the east and west parts of northwest England see significant snowfall whereas in the centre - Wigan, Warrington etc this is substantially reduced by subsidance over the Pennines. Happens as often as not - watch those radar sigs.

I'll cling onto that one as a possibility. Would be better all round that it didn't reach this far to boost chances of something better later though, but if it is coming this far north, than I hope it'll squeeze as much snow as possible. Radar at the ready!

[NorthYorksWeather]

Starting to cloud over where I am now temps -1

fingers crossed.

hey brian just wondering what your view is on the snow getting up to the York region, at the moment its looking like sprinkles, thanks, vizzy

[Teesdale]

I actually agree; the snow I've had in Cleadon was assisted by there only being a very slight north/north-easterly drift. When the easterly picks up off the North Sea it will warm up; I think the frontal band will produce snow inland, but only sleet/wet snow near the coast.

If we could tap into those cold ENE'lys (<-10C at 850hPa) to the north-east of the battleground, I reckon that the airmass would be cold enough to bring falling and settling snow to the coast even with a strong onshore wind, but this looks unlikely at the moment.

06z did have thursday low tracking further south into Holland, drawing in cooler air.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs541.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs572.gif

Just need the second low to play ball and cross the midlands and we could tap into that colder air.

Mark

Teedale,Co Durham

Edited February 7, 2007 by Teesdale

[delq]

FYI guys:

Rain has arrived on Irish south west coast. Valentia station is recodring rain at 6c. Cold air is holding firm above it though.

http://www.met.ie/latest/reports.asp

Q

[*Stormforce~beka*]

My Prayer:

PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE

Snow at least 1 inch on Winchester. 1 inch is all I ask!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[D KARLSON]

hi TWS if your still online could you tell me where the best place to drive to for snow if im travelling from dorset i was thinking reading or swindon and stop overnight as it wont snow here in poole

Preferably somewhere within 80 miles radius your suggestuions please !!!!!!!! cheers

[paul tall]

My 5 year old son cried his eyes out this morning when he saw the slight dusting I had.

Before he went to bed last night, I said there might be some snow in the morning.

The poor kid can't build a snowman.

[pureasthedriven]

My 5 year old son cried his eyes out this morning when he saw the slight dusting I had.

Before he went to bed last night, I said there might be some snow in the morning.

The poor kid can't build a snowman.

Blimey mate, that'll teach you! Poor lil' lad. We just want to share a bit of fun with 'em. Not much to ask is it?

[Andy Bown]

Last night the temp plunged to -6c which is the lowest this winter so far and, without checking my records, is the lowest since last February.

Is a sparkling bright and sunny day but the temp is struggling to get above freezing, with frozen ground and hard frost remaining in the shade.

Bring on the snow!!

[johnholmes]

hi TWS if your still online could you tell me where the best place to drive to for snow if im travelling from dorset i was thinking reading or swindon and stop overnight as it wont snow here in poole

Preferably somewhere within 80 miles radius your suggestuions please !!!!!!!! cheers

try the Mendips

Cotswolds at higher elevation also

possibly highest part of Dartmoor/Exmoor for a time but it will be dark when they are affected.

Edited February 7, 2007 by johnholmes

[TP85]

Does anyone ever wish that the tv weather forecasts took up 25 minutes and then there was just a 3 minute news section on the hour, every hour? That way, they could go into detail and explain what they mean by "Rain is more likely close to southern coasts." Is that within 5 miles or 50 miles? Admittedly it would be boring during the times of zonality and the like, but at times like this I think it'd be a great idea. Seeing as England draws to a halt whenever there's any snow, there can't be much news anyway

[Greyowl]

My 5 year old son cried his eyes out this morning when he saw the slight dusting I had.

Before he went to bed last night, I said there might be some snow in the morning.

The poor kid can't build a snowman.

Its that snow dome Paul. Hope you get some snow for him tonight.

[paul tall]

Cheers.

Needless to say I won't be mentioning snow tonight.

The poor lad was even more gutted than me.

[The Eagle]

We have our weather warning at last

Met Eireann

Issued at 07 February 2007 - 11:55

Severe Weather Alert- Snow

Warning of significant snow fall tonight, Wednesday night, and also for a time Thursday morning.

General :

Very cold and frosty this evening.

A spell of rain and sleet in south Munster this afternoon, will extend northwards this evening and tonight, and will fall as snow in many places.

Moderate to high accumulations of snow can be expected and some drifting is likely in the strong easterly winds.

Areas most at risk are Ulster, Connacht and much of Leinster and north Munster.

Snow amounts of 3 to 6 cm expected generally, but locally 8 to 10 cm, especially parts of the north Midlands and Ulster.

Much of south Munster and the far south of Leinster should see only small amounts of snow, if any, and this mainly on mountains and high ground, but some heavy falls of rain are likely.

Validity time :

Ulster 08 / 0200 to 1500

Leinster 07 / 2000 to 1100

Connacht 07 / 2000 to 0900

Munster 07 / 1800 to 2300.

Sorry JS.

Edited February 7, 2007 by Darkman