Cold spell general discussion pt3 (merged with snow event)

[snow blind]

this is indeed v exciting Nick. My partner however will not allow me to stay up all night twitching the curtains and looking at the models (sounds quite a seedy activity doesnt it) . Please can you enlighten me on what the triple point showing on the meto could mean? does this indicate intensification of precipitation?

Hi Jimmyay

mine dosn't really understand either, I am in worthing about 2 miles from the sea so although looking marginal am getting very excited..

[nick sussex]

this is indeed v exciting Nick. My partner however will not allow me to stay up all night twitching the curtains and looking at the models (sounds quite a seedy activity doesnt it) . Please can you enlighten me on what the triple point showing on the meto could mean? does this indicate intensification of precipitation?

How mean , just put your foot down! its not often we get this type of situation. In answer to your question the heaviest precip is likely to the north of the triple point, heres the fax chart which shows this triple point at 06hrs tomorrow, so where it forms will be the area to be as long as you're north of it in the coldest air.

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/brack0.gif

I do have a feeling though that we havent seen the last of any changes.

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Can anyone get on the Met Office site?

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EDIT: i'm in now

[MKN]

Very nice forecast on bbc1 just now, specifally of interest to myself "somewhere like coventry/nottingham could remain snowy all day"

[mathall1]

Guys how mild is it gunna get after tomorrow.Is this just a 1 day thing.I seen the forecast and i wanna know is it possible it could get cold once more after the weekend into next week?I now its a long way off but i hate the Mild weather lol

[TP85]

Looking marginal for me here - I'm interested to see just how far inland it is necessary to be before the rain turns to proper snow. I'm about 15 miles inland here, and I just don't have a clue one way or the other. I won't be too disappointed if I miss out as I did quite well last month, but obviously I'd love a bit more! I shall be watching the radar closely tonight!

[The Eagle]

http://www.rte.ie/news/2007/0207/weather.html

Really gathering steam in media circles here. Didnt know it reached -7 last night.

Nice beeb forcast aswell. Looking good for Wales and Middle Endland and even the Southeast might see a flurry

[mathall1]

Very nice forecast on bbc1 just now, specifally of interest to myself "somewhere like coventry/nottingham could remain snowy all day"

Looked good for me in west country as well.Looks like it might not turn to rain and keep snowin untill the system moves north.Probably still melt after a few hrs.Im hoping it ll get cold again and not end up mild for days on end.

[Snowking2007]

well you luck sods down south, all the crying for all this time, and your finally getting your snow. No snow from this setup for me in east yorkshire. good luck all.

[Serendipity]

I'm wondering what is likely to happen re school closures etc.

If the snow isn't likely to arrive til dawn, then presumably the roads should be relatively clear for school runs? But if it continues all day and we DO get 10cm or so, then our village generally ends up cut off as we are on a big hill.....

Am hoping they are shut from the start, not that they shut part way through the day! I don't fancy trudging to collect my tribe!

[Upgrade]

How mean , just put your foot down! its not often we get this type of situation. In answer to your question the heaviest precip is likely to the north of the triple point, heres the fax chart which shows this triple point at 06hrs tomorrow, so where it forms will be the area to be as long as you're north of it in the coldest air.

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/brack0.gif

I do have a feeling though that we havent seen the last of any changes.

heck, that's right on top of us here. here's hoping we see just a smidgeon further movement south of this LP (75 miles of current estimate would do probably) and it will be a classic for London and no risk of rain. And increase the likleyhood of further bouts of snow later on in the week / month.

[nick sussex]

Hi nick

thanks for that - I agree that it is not cut and dried and whilst as you say we appear amongst the least favoured areas, if anything hopes may be lifted as t0 comes nearer. I spoke much yesterday about how an ese track was more likely and that the GFS should backtrack. It could well further backtrack from 06z and a subtle change of detail could have very big significance to more marginal areas. The UKMO is much more reliable on this one than the 'all GFS show' that so many believe.

It is very much a nowcast that will matter and reports from all stations west of me will be a good indicator of what to expect.

All to play for - as they say!

Enjoy your late night snacks and ppn watching !

Tamara

Yes being totally realistic as the moment if the charts stayed the same then here it looks at best a snow to rain event but that doesnt dampen my enthusiasm, i'm finding the uncertainty quite exciting and I dont think we've seen the last of the changes, the key will be at the time the precip hits the uk mainland as at that point the ukmo will know how much pressure is being put on the shortwave to head more ese as it battles up against the colder air. As for the gfs I couldnt care what it shows in regards to where it progs the shortwave as at this timeframe the ukmo with the very latest local data will have the best handle on events.

Do people honestly believe that a global model based in the usa is going to have a better feel for local variations and similar past synoptics than the ukmo forecasters! this is why the fax charts are liable to be closest to the mark, anyone thinking otherwise needs a reality check, this obsession with the gfs is just getting silly especially with events over the next 72hrs.

If people want to follow the gfs over the next 72hrs then be prepared to have the prozac ready as this is liable to turn into a traumatic experience.

[phil nw.]

Very nice forecast on bbc1 just now, specifally of interest to myself "somewhere like coventry/nottingham could remain snowy all day"

That will do nicely thankyou!

[snow blind]

I will have my work@business/net weather weather laptop with me as usual (but with one eye on the telly with a bar or two of chocalate!) till late evening as I often do when I'm not working - but won't be doing any early morning shifts

Hi Tamara,

I do the same with my work laptop, 'working from home' tomorrow just incase!!!

[dodge]

Does anyone ever wish that the tv weather forecasts took up 25 minutes and then there was just a 3 minute news section on the hour, every hour? That way, they could go into detail and explain what they mean by "Rain is more likely close to southern coasts." Is that within 5 miles or 50 miles? Admittedly it would be boring during the times of zonality and the like, but at times like this I think it'd be a great idea. Seeing as England draws to a halt whenever there's any snow, there can't be much news anyway

I remember 'Weather Channel' a channel dedicated to weather and surrounding it 24/7 (although mostly it was forecasts). I remember paying particularly close attention to the channel when there were the prospects of colder weather. Sadly, it only lasted a couple of years, before being resigned to the dustbin of 'failure to generate a profit, cable TV Channels'

Not enough interest.

[BristolBlizzard]

I just seen the BBC forecast and it's looking good for many including me. However I'm not very pleased with how yesterday they said we could see 15-17 cm of snow and now their saying 2-8 cm, quite a big difference but I'm still happy. Also between the hours of 0500 - 0700 the snow seems to just stall over us and the midlands I hope their right!

[Serendipity]

That will do nicely thankyou!

Indeed! For once our location looks promising Phil!

The last couple of small snow events we have had round here have managed to bring chaos to the region and I anticipate this to equal (and better) them

[PersianPaladin]

Boohooo.....my 0.6cm snow dusting has all but gone this morning.

(But at least I got my first settling snow of the winter....)

[BristolBlizzard]

Can anyone post the link of the free 15 minute Radar? It was posted a couple of weeks ago and I can't find it, would be greatly appreciated because I'm going to need it tonight.

[Supercell]

That will do nicely thankyou!

Yes, most definitely lol. Desperately trying not to allow excitement to set in. How many times has it all gone wrong before ?

[andy_leics22]

Very nice forecast on bbc1 just now, specifally of interest to myself "somewhere like coventry/nottingham could remain snowy all day"

Good job we live right in the middle of Cov and Nottingham then

[PersianPaladin]

I remember 'Weather Channel' a channel dedicated to weather and surrounding it 24/7 (although mostly it was forecasts). I remember paying particularly close attention to the channel when there were the prospects of colder weather. Sadly, it only lasted a couple of years, before being resigned to the dustbin of 'failure to generate a profit, cable TV Channels'

Not enough interest.

I've often wondered why this website is now called netweather.TV???

[SP1986]

Boohooo.....my 0.6cm snow dusting has all but gone this morning.

(But at least I got my first settling snow of the winter....)

Yes nice to see you got some snow PP, snow still on the ground here - and doesnt really look like melting before the next lot comes!

[MKN]

Can anyone post the link of the free 15 minute Radar? It was posted a couple of weeks ago and I can't find it, would be greatly appreciated because I'm going to need it tonight.

www.meteo24.com/uk

[nick sussex]

Interesting that the 06z UKMO shifts everything another few miles further south. There is still room for another subtle shift as well. I think if there any changes from now it can only go one way...

As you say, uncertainty all the way. We have had uncertainty for a long time now and it proves to be our best ally I think in these situations

We may go the same route with the next system progged a day or so later. And afterwards a cold easterly is not out of the reckoning. ok - enough for now!

Tamara

Apparently the latest ukmo mesoscale model forms a low near sussex and kent and increases the area of snow although still has rain or sleet near the south coast, I just saw this on another site also the trough disruption is slightly further south also.