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Easter Week 2007


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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

hi

Just as a little exercise on how GFS, or any other model, seems to be shaping up 2 weeks ahead of the event.

Currently, and for a day or so, GFS has 'toyed' with the idea of a cold northerly. Today is no exception as the 06Z chart from this morning for 06Z on Good Friday 6th April shows.

post-847-1174564581_thumb.jpg

It will be interesting to see if GFS has done(as our ex Devonian post would say) got a 'spot' that is accurate?

I'll try and put the chart for each day at 06Z for the Good Friday posted up to see how the event ends up.

John

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Posted
  • Location: Berlin, Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Ample sunshine; Hot weather; Mixed winters with cold and mild spells
  • Location: Berlin, Germany

Shall keep an eye on this one. Having a party that night so got to decide if we can get the barbie out or get take away in! Hopefully the barbie...

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Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

I think it will be quite warm and sunny.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

my guess is anticyclonic dull and dismal with a temp of around 12oC like the coming days

www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.html, Easter Saturday also shows a high to our West

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

A northerly with snow showers would be quite typical of a varied spring; Spring 1982 was mostly warm but had cold northerlies coinciding exactly with Easter and May Day Holidays. 1995 followed a slightly different pattern, with heatwaves early in the holiday weekends, cooler cloudier ends, and then wintry spells straight afterwards.

As Gavin P said Easter 1998 would take some beating; I actually woke up to a snow cover on Easter Sunday that year, and Saturday, Sunday and Monday all featured sun and snow showers.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Well since it's an Bank Holiday plus I may get a rest from looking after my Mother one of two things will happen.

1) It'll be cold and wet

2) or I'll be ill.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I was starting to think it would be a cold and showery Easter but now i'm thinking it will be warmish and settled as the Azores High ridges across britain and brings lots of sunshine and temps in the high teens to possibly low twenties in the south as we pick up a southerly flow eventually.

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Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL

i think it will be cold for easter with some heavy snow showers about and also some hard frosts,the last hard frosts of the season not that weve had many

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
I hope it's warm and sunny, I am fed up with our recent weather, let's get summer started.

Lets have Spring first! Summer can wait till June.

:rolleyes::D

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

As far as I can see, Easter could be pretty much anything; there is so much uncertainty. The GFS is consistently showing northerlies, and I reckon that there will be northerlies somewhere close by around that time- but they might miss Britain itself, or be timed prior to the Easter weekend.

As for my preferences, I'd be equally happy with a warm settled sunny Easter, a spring mix of sun & April showers, or an Arctic regime with sunshine and wintry showers, or any combination of the three; I should thus be relatively easily pleased, though I'd be dead against a cloudy Easter esp. if cool and drizzly.

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Posted
  • Location: Scunny Lincolnshire.41m (134FT)ASL
  • Location: Scunny Lincolnshire.41m (134FT)ASL
Hopefully a Greenland High and it will be very cold with strong and blustery northerly veering north east winds and frequent heavy wintry showers and night time frosts.

I think there is actually a realistic chance that this may not be too far wide of the mark!

:nonono:

Tamara

I would be happy with that as i enjoyed the last cold spell which brought a covering of snow 2 night running.Theirs plenty of time for mild weather during the year so why not have one more cold spell.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Howard, North Yorkshire
  • Location: Castle Howard, North Yorkshire

Great Idea John, I shall look forward to that.

My personal view, although not my preference is that we will have a Northerly.

The reason I say this is because the other models are showing signs of something colder

developing, and also a Pattern has appeared frequently on the ensembles.

I think the GFS is performing badly ATM but we will start to see a Northerley

appear on a more frequent basis very soon.

Brian :nonono:

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I'm still going for an early heatwave, except for shetland where we never get heatwaves, we get lots of coolwaves up here for 12 months a year. :nonono:

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
It'll have to be some spell to beat the cold and wetness of Easter 1998, though! :o :cold:

We were very unlucky that the cold spell coincided with Easter. Spring 1998 was in the top 20 warmest springs on record with a very mild March and a warm May. The first and last third of April was pretty mild, it was the middle third that was cold and it just so happen Easter was in that period!

It got to 29.4C on Good Friday 1949.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
It got to 29.4C on Good Friday 1949.

All you need is an early spanish plume and you will have 29.5C on Good Friday 2007. Simple innit. :cold: Intersting to see that in the day's before all this nonsence global warming the temperature could rise so high in 1949 during the pea souper industrial smog years. :o

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

the 06z GFS today for T+336=Good Friday 6 April 2007

Pretty similar to the run at the same time yesterday.

post-847-1174660123_thumb.jpg

John

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

I'm probably in a small minority here, but I enjoyed the Easter of 1998 up here in the North East- we'd had hardly a glimmer of sunshine during the first ten days of the month (3rd and 9th being the only two days to have so much as sunny intervals); and come Easter Saturday though Monday, we ended up with plenty of sunshine in between the snow showers and some towering Cb cells. I do remember sources around that time talking of "worsening weather" as the cold bright snowy conditions replaced the dull wetness and flooding, but regardless of what the media say, "worsening" is a subjective term.

At the moment, as John shows above, still a tendency with the GFS to toy with a cold northerly for Good Friday...

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Posted
  • Location: 10mi NW Leeds 147m asl
  • Location: 10mi NW Leeds 147m asl
the 06z GFS today for T+336=Good Friday 6 April 2007

Pretty similar to the run at the same time yesterday.

post-847-1174660123_thumb.jpg

John

John,

Don't you think that today's run is a little colder? Also, what's your opinion of the aAtlantic blocking strength?

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