Easter Week 2007

[Thundery wintry showers]

Yes a lot of uncertainty surrounding this period today.

However I think taking the other models into concideration the colder scenario

just has it's nose infront.

Not any longer- looks like 'warm and sunny' is becoming the most likely assessment, with a large floppy high sat over the British Isles, and frontal activity largely absent. Nick has picked up on this and I think he is right.

[Upgrade]

feelin hot hot hot!

[kold weather]

Looking olike a really good easter period actually. Not quite sure I'd describe it as hot mind you!

Still I think we are about to see quite a few 18-20C maxes over the next 7-10 days and I suspect either the Saturday or Sunday may well see max temps reaching 20C in isolated spots in the usual warm zones!

[johnholmes]

the 06z this morning for T+168 is this

I think it is becoming very unlikely that the cold lovers will have a weather set up at Easter to their liking.

Things can still change but the overall pattern, albeit with changes both from run to run with GFS, and the other models, the tend is now for High Pressure to be near or perhaps over the UK with any 'real' cold air shunted east.

Like I say though, it is possible for it to change but not that likely.

Just looking at the Met O Fax chart for next Wednesday or Tuesday, and IF that did come off then the 'trigger' is there for a cold northerly.

The chart below is their 'picture' for 12z Wednesday. For it to be more potent, then the low ideally would need to be not as far north as it is predicted to be.

John

Edited March 30, 2007 by johnholmes

[The PIT]

Thanks John.

A side not would 18C - 20C be classed as Hot at this time of year or just warm?

[johnholmes]

Thanks John.

A side not would 18C - 20C be classed as Hot at this time of year or just warm?

strictly speaking the term 'hot' is only normally used in the summer period, 1 June-31 August, but some of the forecasters do make exceptions these days. I think it has to be, from memory, >7C above the normal.

[SP1986]

strictly speaking the term 'hot' is only normally used in the summer period, 1 June-31 August, but some of the forecasters do make exceptions these days. I think it has to be, from memory, >7C above the normal.

Makes sense I suppose, coming out of the winter months, and the speed of heating from March into Spring (as shown by the average CET), I suppose a sudden jump from say 9C to 20C would make 20C feel quite 'hot'

[Upgrade]

strictly speaking the term 'hot' is only normally used in the summer period, 1 June-31 August, but some of the forecasters do make exceptions these days. I think it has to be, from memory, >7C above the normal.

by that measure we had a few "hot" days in January!

[johnholmes]

this is the Met O list of temperatures

well Net Wx does not like the Excel layout, so I'll get the link, its in the Guides we have.

herewith the link on what terms to use, when etc.

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?a...st&id=27868

John

Edited March 30, 2007 by johnholmes

[kold weather]

Looking quite warm for the first week of half term, the GFS progging constant maxes between 13-17C for this week so the next 7 days could well be decently above average with very above average maxes. However my main focus now is Monday.

20C looking very likely somewhere, my punt is probably in CS England on Monday, beeb progging 19C, the GFS progging its highest temps of the year by nearly 2C so I think its safe to assume that Monday could be the warmest day. A slight easterly drift is present which may limit temps a touch in the east, this includes London so the max temps are likely in central regions. CS England also has the benefit of the wind having the shorstest trip over any water mass so there'll be very little modification either. Profiles at 850hpa are not to bad, we have a ESE flow at that level with us importing 5C isotherm at 850hpa into the south of England. This IMO looks okay for the type of set-up , thickness suggests maxes of 15-16C however given the flow should be quite dry and there is going to be a lot of sunshine with it I think those figures may wlel be a good 2-3C too low for most and in ioslated places maybe evn 4C too low

[johnholmes]

here is the 06z run for today with yet another type, this time a general sw flow over most of the country.

Variety they say is the spice of life and GFS is certainly providing that at the moment.

John

[johnholmes]

missed the 06z due to hiking around Kinder but assume it was rather similar to 00z and/or 12Z?

[kold weather]

Warm Good Friday, cooler Easter Saturday wuith light rain, cloudy Sunday but with deecnt temps and pressure around 1015-1020mbs generlaly with a SW wind and tmeps between 10-12C in Scotland upto 18C in the far south, temps simlar to the 12z.

[sunny scunny]

Easter will be great with plenty of warm sunshine and no rain in sight.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

i think tuesday and wednesday 3rd-4th april will be very miserable and gloomy even drizzle possible for my area. Easter its self i reckon high pressure in control but knowing the midlands fairly cloudy, temp at around 13oC max, my guess for my neck of the woods

[Nick F]

Easter will be great with plenty of warm sunshine and no rain in sight.

Wouldn't be so certain yet, particularly for N'ern areas. 12z GFS looks essentially dry over the UK for Sat and Sun (apart from far N of Scotland), but 12z ECM suggests a deepening low brushing to the North of the UK which could bring wind, cloud and rain further South to the Northern half at the week-end, particularly Sunday.

[johnholmes]

here is the latest 06Z GFS.

Its not that far on this run from its original idea. Albeit quite modified from T+336 but still, if it happens, likely to drop the temperatures over the north and north east.

John

oh well 2 for the price of 1!

Edited April 2, 2007 by johnholmes

[Summer of 95]

See

http://homepage.ntlworld.com/booty.weather.../NFL/easter.htm

for an excellent review of recent and not-so-recent Easters.

A warm sunny Easter weekend would be welcome, often I've noticed that it tends to be warm and sunny either just before or just after the Easter weekend (sometimes both- but not on the weekend itself. The three best Easter weekends for warm, sunny weather I can remember were 1989, 1997 and 2002- which were all March Easters!

The "sun index" is particularly interesting to note: between 1973 and 1990 inclusive there was only one with a sun index of 50 or lower; from 1991 onwards there have been six; it was the cold 1998 that had one of the highest since then.

[johnholmes]

See

http://homepage.ntlworld.com/booty.weather.../NFL/easter.htm

for an excellent review of recent and not-so-recent Easters.

A warm sunny Easter weekend would be welcome, often I've noticed that it tends to be warm and sunny either just before or just after the Easter weekend (sometimes both- but not on the weekend itself. The three best Easter weekends for warm, sunny weather I can remember were 1989, 1997 and 2002- which were all March Easters!

The "sun index" is particularly interesting to note: between 1973 and 1990 inclusive there was only one with a sun index of 50 or lower; from 1991 onwards there have been six; it was the cold 1998 that had one of the highest since then.

yes that site is the first place to look for factual data about the weather. Quite first class and it must have taken Martin an unbelievable amount of time to put it together.

here with the 06z today for T+72 and its back to a mix between the northerly, so near, and High pressure dominating.

It really is so close to the 'actual' that any northerly is now pretty unlikely, at least over the bulk of the Easter weekend for even the far north east. The N Isles will 'flirt' with a couple of cooler days, like today and probably Monday, with the possibility of that northerly giving snow over quite low hills, about as far south as the Cairngorms by Tuesday.

John

Edited April 3, 2007 by johnholmes

[johnholmes]

hi

Well almost there, and not much major change likely from the 06z run this morning.

Spot the difference!

Have a good Easter everyone. For the cold lovers, not that far away, but not near enough. For the warm lovers, enjoy.

John

[Thundery wintry showers]

Looks like Easter 2007 could end up with a pretty impressive 'sun index', the way things are going.

[SP1986]

Feast your eyes on todays temperatures in Aviemore 18C already and 2.5 hours more heating. An area who's name means 'snowfields' in Scottish gaelic has trumped up with probably some of the highest temperatures it will get this year nevermind in April!

As for the Easter spell, I think it could be quite warm everywhere, especially the further east you go, further west temperatures will probably not be as impressive, hovering at or just above average although quite warm in localised areas. Sunny for most though so looking good.

[sunny scunny]

Sunny/Warm/Dry and that'll do me nicely.