Easter Week 2007

[johnholmes]

I used the phrase 'pretty similar'. It seemed appropriate. At this range I don't look too closely at what is being progged. As to Atlantic blocking then its a long way off to be making anything of that.

Rather more important is the fact that the 06z run has shown rather similar scenarios for about 4 or 5 days now.

On another thread Carinthian has pointed out how cold the Arctic region is just now. He also talks of the lower parts of the region having less ice this year(I think-correct me if I've misquoted you Paul). Overall, the back end of February through to the middle of March is the usual time for the Arctic to be at its coldest in comparison to the more disturbed areas of the temperate zone further south=us!.

The scope for Polar outbursts is quite often greater at this time of the year as a consequence of the increasing temperature gradient north-south from the Arctic to our latitudes.

Any later and the warming effect in our region is often too great for any real Arctic burst but they do occur. And do occur right into June as 1975 showed.

John

Edited March 23, 2007 by johnholmes

[Frosty.]

the 06z GFS today for T+336=Good Friday 6 April 2007

Pretty similar to the run at the same time yesterday.

John

More chance of Leeds Utd being promoted back to the Premiership than that chart coming off.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

We were very unlucky that the cold spell coincided with Easter. Spring 1998 was in the top 20 warmest springs on record with a very mild March and a warm May. The first and last third of April was pretty mild, it was the middle third that was cold and it just so happen Easter was in that period!

It got to 29.4C on Good Friday 1949.

Ay Good friday 1949 www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/Rrea00119490415.gif

before my time but looks hot

the gfs still going with a high for easter 2007 www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.html

my guess has still gotta be high pressure dominated and very cloudy at 12oC

[Duncan McAlister]

Weird looking at these max temps for April, they all occur around the middle of the month, when you'd expect with insolation, rising SSTs etc. them to occur at the end of the month, as with March's highest temps.

http://www.torro.org.uk/TORRO/britwxextremes/maxtemps.php

And 29.4C is amazing for April, just shows the amount of records still to be broken in a warming Britain.

[acbrixton]

I'm still going for an early heatwave, except for shetland where we never get heatwaves, we get lots of coolwaves up here for 12 months a year.

Not quite.............see the exchange between philip Eden and me.

"Philip: I hope you do not mind me asking for your view on the post mentioned above: it seems that in May 1910 Shetland recorded a maximum temperature of 28c...what is your view as to the reliability of this; my recollection is that Shetland has never got above about 23c...

Many thanks

Regards

Andrew

Hi Andrew ... bizarre as it seems, it is true; I can't remember the precise figure which of course at that time was recorded in fahrenheit, but it was in the low 80s, and it was recorded at Sumburgh (at the southern tip of Shetland) in one of those short-lived hot tropical-continental cyclonic flows of north African origin, travelling up into Scandinavia and then heading across Shetland as an easterly or northeasterly. Everything has to be just right (especially dewpoint and sea-surface temperature) otherwise Shetland just sits in fog."

[Weather-history]

Not quite.............see the exchange between philip Eden and me.

"Philip: I hope you do not mind me asking for your view on the post mentioned above: it seems that in May 1910 Shetland recorded a maximum temperature of 28c...what is your view as to the reliability of this; my recollection is that Shetland has never got above about 23c...

Many thanks

Regards

Andrew

Hi Andrew ... bizarre as it seems, it is true; I can't remember the precise figure which of course at that time was recorded in fahrenheit, but it was in the low 80s, and it was recorded at Sumburgh (at the southern tip of Shetland) in one of those short-lived hot tropical-continental cyclonic flows of north African origin, travelling up into Scandinavia and then heading across Shetland as an easterly or northeasterly. Everything has to be just right (especially dewpoint and sea-surface temperature) otherwise Shetland just sits in fog."

It was actually August 1910 not May and it reached 27.8C at Sumburgh Head on the 6th of that month.

[acbrixton]

It was actually August 1910 not May and it reached 27.8C at Sumburgh Head on the 6th of that month.

Mr Data many thanks for the correction!

Regards

ACB

[Michael Winston]

Any later and the warming effect in our region is often too great for any real Arctic burst but they do occur. And do occur right into June as 1975 showed.

John

I remember that well! And then we fried from Whitsuntide onwards! (I was at college then and remember tribes of young people, myself included, who thought that liberal intakes of lager and Guinness were the cure for sunburn, heatstroke, overdrafts etc. We still managed to pass our finals, too! God help us!). I'll have to agree with you experienced folks here - I think we may have a classic (for me that is!) Spring season with a cold incursion, lots of lovely clean North air, vigorous wintry showers and beautiful post - storm skies.

Well, I can dream can't I?

Kind regards everyone,

Have a nice weekend,

Mike.

Edited March 24, 2007 by Winston

[johnholmes]

o6Z run today at T+312 hours.

Another northerly from it. This one starts on Tuesday, 03/04/07!

John

Edited March 24, 2007 by johnholmes

[yamkin]

o6Z run today at T+312 hours.

Another northerly from it. This one starts on Tuesday, 03/04/07!

John

I'm going for a cold period from the 4th April.

Today has been quite chilly here at 6c. Not sure why the good old MetO kept on saying 12c?!

[johnholmes]

and your reason why you predict a cold spell is?

I wish I could predict that far ahead.

24-48 hours is my max without the models!

[ukmoose]

I'm thinking cold and showery.

It'll have to be some spell to beat the cold and wetness of Easter 1998, though! :lol: :lol:

2000 was quite a lot colder and wetter as I seem to remember.

In recent years (the last decade) April has been the only month (I think) that has been a fair bit below the average on more than two occasions. I'm sure Mr Data will correct me if I'm wrong. That said, there have also been several warm Aprils too so not much of a pattern really.

As far as the weather for Easter goes, because the actual easter period can vary by almost a month, there is scope for a remarkable variation in temperature from lying snow and freezing nights to basking on the beach. What will it be this year? Easter is fairly early but not as early as it could be. Some indications of a cool spell but it's still up in the air really (excuse the pun). Next week end we should have more idea.

Moose

[Thundery wintry showers]

We had average to cool Aprils in 1998, 2000 and 2001; I think 2001 was the coolest of the three, averaged nationally, although temperatures were less than half a degree below either 1961-90 or 1971-2000 averages.

Our last significantly cold April occurred way back in 1989, though it is certainly fair to say that Aprils haven't warmed as much as the first three months of the year over the past 20 years. Indeed, many places saw more wintry weather in April than in March during 1990, 1991, 1994, 1998, 1999, 2000, and even the warm one in 2003.

[johnholmes]

bit late but here is the 06z for today T+288 and still with the northerly

John

Edited March 25, 2007 by johnholmes

[johnholmes]

here is the 06z for today, T+264; 5th run in the sequence.

and at last the expected 'break' in the runs of suggested northerlies. Quite often at some point between T+294 and T+192 this blip occurs. It can show the 'real' picture on some occasions but on other occasions it is just a blip. Will it be a blip or the first 'real' indication of the actual weather? It still has a 'cold' Easter but with a flow from ne rather than north.

We wait to see what the next 11 runs down to T+00 actually end up with.

John

Edited March 26, 2007 by johnholmes

[johnholmes]

Its still a long way out but I'll run this for the time being until T+168 then I may revert to a blog. That way only those interested in my musings need log on.

Its too far out to call yet but it does have the makings of the original being one of those well known 'spots'!

[johnholmes]

T+240 today

Another version from GFS. So now two runs with the northerly nowehere to be seen but obviously its not sure of what to put in its place, judging from the last two 06z runs.

John

no idea why there are two there, both the same, never mind I'll leave them.

j

Edited March 27, 2007 by johnholmes

[Stuart]

warm and sunny

[johnholmes]

06z for today.

another version by GFS

John

[Thundery wintry showers]

Looks quite settled from that chart, probably sunny as well, in sharp contrast to the 'cyclonic' earlier version.

[Terminal Moraine]

The ensembles certainly show great disparity after April 4th and this is reflected in the wide range of projected outcomes for Easter over the last few days.

The current projection of dry and settled weather has been reasonably consistent for the last few runs, but then so was the northerly a few days ago. At present I 'd go for a fine and settled start to the Easter period followed by a gradual breakdown over the weekend.

T.M

[johnholmes]

06z run for today, T+192, almost into what we usually think as a reliable time frame. However, those that entered the last weather comp may feel otherwise. It led many of us astray, especially regarding the wind strength. The actual chart was really not much like it showed at T+192 nor at T+168.

So for Easter I still think the jury is out as to what will happen.

anyway below is todays' offering.

John

Edited March 29, 2007 by johnholmes

[reef]

The GFS is certainly struggling at the moment. A casual look at the ensembles still shows anything from -10C to +10C at 850hPa level for Aberdeen next weekend. Anything could happen, from a potent cold spell with a strong Greenland high to a settled warm spell.

Edited March 29, 2007 by reef

[grab my graupel]

Yes a lot of uncertainty surrounding this period today.

However I think taking the other models into concideration the colder scenario

just has it's nose infront.

[Nick H]

Well WeatherOnline are going for 18C on Maundy Thursday, 18C on Good Friday and 20C on Easter Saturday. It's certainly looking good at the moment.