May CET

[snowray]

All the more remarkable for the complete absense of rain in the first 5 days - the rolling 30 day figure will be interesting on 5th June

From the latest radar you can see a lot of beefy looking showers heading North towards the CET zone already, could they add another say 10mm to the total? Might be some torrential downpoars in a few places.

[kold weather]

Impressive figures Kevin and also it has been very wet, should prevent any drought this summer given how wet the winter was as well and it just has balanced out the extra-ordinarly dry April!

As for the total amount, its going to be very hit and miss as to whether the sites get the biggest downpours, it may go up only a tiny bit, or if one of the sites get several cores it may go up by a decent amount.

[noggin]

It's just started to rain here and the temperature has plummeted! Sorry I have no figures.

[Lettucing Gutted]

Things turned a bit more mobile in the last third of the month but it never really warmed up until the very end of the month.

That warm spell in southeastern Britain at the very end of May 1996 would become June 1996's most extreme early June heatwave since June 1976.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119960531.gif

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119960604.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119960605.gif

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119960607.gif

[snowray]

Well the PPN that was around in the UK today was mainly in the CET zone but showers seem very hit and miss, not as widespread as expected by any means, the south east remaining dry with some hot sunshine (that I experienced this afternnon with max of 19c in London, felt hotter), so the final rainfall figure will probably not have gone up that much.

Temps wise I still think 12C will be the final CET for May.

[Stratos Ferric]

May continues to plough a very narrow corridor compared with every other month in recent times. Noteworthy given the general warmth in recent months, and noteworthy in another way because the set ups were often cool (if not cold apart from early this last week) and yet STILL we are only just in touching distance of an average month, and well clear of a cool or cold one.

Well done to those who punted lower this time. I suspect the forecast pack will have closed up somewhat after this month.

[North-Easterly Blast]

There have been two major wet periods this month - one around mid-month and another one this last week, but only one was cool. The unsettled spell during mid-month was associated with air of a mainly tropical maritime origin due to winds mainly from the south/south-west, and no northerly from a cold source, and so the mid May wet spell was not cool, and in fact overnight temps remained largely above average. Whereas the unsettled spell this last week was cool, as it was started by a NW'ly and then a low pressure crossed southern UK and dragged northerlies across the UK from reasonably far up north, (although not exactly way up into the Arctic) and so this last week's wet spell was cool, and in fact according to the daily CETs it has seen some of the lowest daily CETs in the final week of May in any year in recent decades, only years such as 1975, 1962 and 1936 have seen significantly cooler spells in late May than this last week according to the Daily CET Data list.

[Summer of 95]

I'm looking a right old Charley having gone for 16C as the figure for May; I thought it was in with a chance given the recent figures for July, September, January and April. Now on reflection I'm beginning to think the Mays of the 2000's are the same as the Junes of the 1990's; often wet and dull with very cold days but seldom producing well below average CETs due to night minima and the odd 3-day spell that managed a 25C here and there towards the SE corner of Britain.

[Stu_London]

May continues to plough a very narrow corridor compared with every other month in recent times. Noteworthy given the general warmth in recent months, and noteworthy in another way because the set ups were often cool (if not cold apart from early this last week) and yet STILL we are only just in touching distance of an average month, and well clear of a cool or cold one.

Well done to those who punted lower this time. I suspect the forecast pack will have closed up somewhat after this month.

Reason for above average - very few minimas below average. May (especially early May) is still a time when moderate to severe air frost can occur under a cold 1996 style high pressure cell

Final figures from Philip Eden's site - 12.0C

Quite surprising that we managed to pick up an extra 0.1C yesterday (and disappointing from my point of view as my punt was 11.9C)

Still, 0.1C is miles better that anything I have achieved previously

Edited June 1, 2007 by Stu_London

[Anti-Mild]

Quite surprising that we managed to pick up an extra 0.1C yesterday (and disappointing from my point of view as my punt was 11.9C)

Still, 0.1C is miles better that anything I have achieved previously

That was my punt as well...so close!!!

Still, well done to fishdude!

[kold weather]

Yep well done fishdude on getting it exact, I'm rather pleased with mine though as well, given my April forecast was rather out!!

[Weather-history]

Using Philip's rainfall value as a base, here's the wettest Mays on record since 1776

151.8 1773

142.4 1782

140.7 1967

129.6 1932

129.1 1843

123.1 1886

122.4 1924

121.9 1811

121.5 1869

120.7 2007

We'll wait for the Hadley figure to see if it the wettest May since 1967.

[Lettucing Gutted]

Does anyone think May 2007 will have a cooler second half than the first half outcome despite the warm spell earlier in the week before the Bank Holiday?

[snowray]

Well done fishdude, spot on. Also well done to stu_london and anti mild, just getting pipped at the post.

[DR Hosking]

a cool and very wet May here in Northamptonshire. Average temperature 12.1 which is 0.4 degrees bellow the 30 year average. Rainfall 130.3mm !! Thats 261.6% of the average rainfall for the month!! All the more extreme given that in April our rainfall total was 1.6mm just 3% of the average. Also notable by the fact that the average maximum temperature in May was 16.2 degrees where the April average was 17.1 degrees! Also the average temperature of 12.1 is only 0.5 degrees warmer than Aprils average of 11.6 degrees! So all in all some pretty interesting stuff in this part of the world over the last couple of months.

[Stargazer]

Some very warm predictions on here (hardly surprising though given what we've seen)!

I'm going to go for 11.8c (+0.5 above the 71-2000 average).

I'm actually expecting a fairly wet month - which would go against most of the longer range models at the moment (except possibly ECM) - based on the developing cold SSTA off the US east coast, coupled with those to our North helping to push the jet somewhat further South than we've seen. I can actually see it running through the middle of the UK as the month progresses so we might see a trail of rather slow moving Atlantic depressions.

We could also see a few thundery downpours given the warmth that's around.

And I think beng deserves an honourable mention (if I may take the liberty of quoting him here) for getting the CET very close and a good general prediction of the weather patterns. As for yours truly...well, at least I was closer for May than for April but that doesn't say much

[Stu_London]

Does anyone think May 2007 will have a cooler second half than the first half outcome despite the warm spell earlier in the week before the Bank Holiday?

No - because the first half was 11.8C

[summer blizzard]

My punt was for 11.3C, which is average and was 0.7C off the mark, nevertheless i classify this forecast as a failure.

[beng]

Thanks Stargazer, I might just have been lucky with that forecast though I'll see if my June one comes close (also for very wet with a of CET 15. :unsure: and if that one comes (which in a way i hope it doesn't) then I reckon I'll have done pretty well.

[summer blizzard]

Personally, i am quite annoyed, with a diffrence from the actual CET of 0.6C and 0.7C during April and May respectively, if my June figure is anywhere near that anomoly, i could be leading over that three month period, however as prises are only available for each month or season, i could walk away empty handed.

I suppose its just one of those unlucky things in life..

Over the course of Winter and Spring, what anomoly from average did the seasonal winners average???

[The PIT]

I'm making no comment about my prediction.

[J10]

The Manley CET figure for May has been confirmed at 12.0c.

Source ( www.climate-uk.com )

Most entrants for May had an estimate above the actual result, probably expecting the very mild conditions in April to carry through into May.

However there was one entrant Fishdude who got the temperature spot on, and congratulations are due.

The Seasonal competition has been concluded with 3 excellent entries in May for the podium finishers.

phil n.warks. won after being 3rd last month, Kold Weather rose to 2nd from 16th, while Duncan McAlister finished 3rd from 11th.

In the Overall competition, phil n.warks. has risen to 4th from 21st, Kold Weather rose to 5th from 18th, while Duncan McAlister is now 2nd from 12th. Timmy H remains in the lead despite not entering, while Cheeky monkey has risen to 3rd from 13th, but there are still six months to go, and a good month can easily see big jumps in the leaderboard.

Results

Spreadsheet

Spring CET Results (GIF format)

Latest Overall CET Scores (GIF format)

[kold weather]

Wow, I came second overall depsite a fairly poor April if the truth be known as is reflected in my rise from 18th place, but the other months were close, though it has to be said well done to Phil, 0.1C away for two months is pretty good going!

Now just got to keep that up for the rest of the year, easier said...

[phil nw.]

Wow, I came second overall depsite a fairly poor April if the truth be known as is reflected in my rise from 18th place, but the other months were close, though it has to be said well done to Phil, 0.1C away for two months is pretty good going!

Now just got to keep that up for the rest of the year, easier said...

Thanks for that Kold and also to Jackone for putting the results together so quickly.I certainly don`t claim to have any crystal ball.

I guess, like most posters its just a case of looking at the latest models,noting any usefull information on trends supplied by the knowlegable posters and then taking a stab at it.

At the end of the day its a bit of fun and adds some further interest to this excellent forum.

Good luck to everyone who enters during the rest of the year.

[PersianPaladin]

Yep well done fishdude on getting it exact, I'm rather pleased with mine though as well, given my April forecast was rather out!!

Lol welldone?

Pure luck I say. Still....I think fishdude should get an award for guessing it right. An evening out with with flagpole perhaps?

Edited June 1, 2007 by PersianPaladin