May CET

[summer blizzard]

Five key words for you all..

While, not, proof, yet and could...

[Stratos Ferric]

According to the latest GFS run the period 23rd-31st will have an average temperature off 11.1c which is 1.4c below average for the second half.

So that means by the end of this month the CET would be around 11.8c. 0.4c above average and not the 2c above mentioned a while ago.

Whilst GFS is bouncing around a bit, the trend is towards less warm / average for the time being. I think you're right; something around 12 by the month end currently looks likely. Still, it's around what we had last year and the continuation of a staggeringly consistent series: no other month has such a narrow recent range.

[Bobby]

Certainly is impossible to say that we are now seeing slowing warming just because of a few weeks of only somewhat above average temperatures. I think June will be warm.

[VillagePlank]

... Still, it's around what we had last year and the continuation of a staggeringly consistent series: no other month has such a narrow recent range.

Yes the consistency is quite staggering (even if I did overcook the CET, this month ) This makes me wonder why the MetO have selected May SST to produce a winter forecast. Is there some astronomic phenomenon that remains undiscovered underlying the clear statistical trend?

[Stu_London]

Still quite a largish range to play for considering we are so far into the month.

Quite a large ensemble scatter even after 48 hours with two members staying well above average until the end of the month (0z). Somewhere as high as 13 could be achieved if those two came to fruition.

Here is one for Kevin (Mr D)

During spring - has there ever been 2 half months that have been cooler than the previous half month. For example:

2nd Half of May, cooler than 1st half of May, which was cooler than second half of April

This is looking a possiblility now.

Could reverse the question to warming for the autumn months also.

[Weather-history]

Here is one for Kevin (Mr D)

During spring - has there ever been 2 half months that have been cooler than the previous half month. For example:

2nd Half of May, cooler than 1st half of May, which was cooler than second half of April

.

1957

First half March>second half of March>first half of April

1956

Second half of March>first half of April>second half of April

[Stu_London]

1957

First half March>second half of March>first half of April

1956

Second half of March>first half of April>second half of April

wow your a legend

[PersianPaladin]

wow your a legend

Well, he is Mr Data.

Respect.

[acbrixton]

Well, he is Mr Data.

Respect.

One of the major adornments of NW! The Forum would be much the poorer without him.

Regards

ACB

[Nick H]

One of the major adornments of NW! The Forum would be much the poorer without him.

Regards

ACB

Hear hear.

[Terminal Moraine]

Hear hear.

I'll second that. I've got lots of data but I bow my head and doff my cap in the presence of Mr Data.

T.M

[Stu_London]

12.2C for 1st May to 23rd May

Probably only one more day of growth before it drops back - although the fall will be very slow at this late stage

Very happy with my 11.9C prediction - i expect to be within 0.2C although there still remains some uncertainty in the ensembles for London at quite short range.

[kold weather]

You may well be very close Stu, I think toay and tommorow will be the last time we see the CET adjust upwards, after that the models all seem to indicate a fairly below average set-up taking hold, one we'd cry with happiness over in winter sadly!

Sat-Tuesday could well see a CET of something around the 7-9C mark which will help to dent the CET a little even at this stage as we drag in a pretty cool flow for the time of year.

I'm very happy with my 12.1C call, though I did expect a far more easterly month the jet has just been running a little too far north, instead LP's have been close or over the top of us instead.

Edited May 24, 2007 by kold weather

[snowray]

I wonder what effect it would have on the CET figure if the last 6 days remained below average and some of the exceptionally low temps progged by GFS actually turned out to be correct?

[Optimus Prime]

I wonder what effect it would have on the CET figure if the last 6 days remained below average and some of the exceptionally low temps progged by GFS actually turned out to be correct?

According to the latest GFS run the period 25th-21st will have an average temperature of 8.7c. Around 3.6c below average for the second half.

By the 31st the CET should be at 11.6c or 0.3c above average. Bearing in mind the GFS 2m temperature plot sometimes exaggerates coolness in summer in these situations.

[snowray]

Interesting, so if the cold snap were to go on til the end of the month, ie the warmer air remains to our East, theres an outside chance of us ending up around average or even just below.

[Weather-history]

The CET fell away last May if you remember over those last 3 days of that month. Enough to knock 0.3 off.

[The PIT]

May is now turning into one of those silly warm months. All eyes on this weekends weather to see if it cancels the last few days out. An odd month since we didn't break the 20C mark until Yesterday and again today. God bless those high overnight mins if your record chasing for the warmest year.

[Snowyowl9]

The CET fell away last May if you remember over those last 3 days of that month. Enough to knock 0.3 off.

Well I had temps of 12.3/12.5 and a min of 5.7c-15.7 for the last 3 days so I`ll know what to look for now,not as it`ll do me much good as I went for 12.9c.

[Optimus Prime]

The set-up is looking pretty similar to last May as well;

Although Metcheck currently has the CET at 12.3c so we're lower then last year at this current time which I think was about 13.3c.

[The PIT]

All eyes on this weekend. Will Sunday and MOnday reverse the trend or will it leave the month as another silly warm one. One thing is certain it's going to be a wet mild month but how mild and how wet.

[summer blizzard]

According to Phillip Eden, the CET is 12.4C, i am not sure whether there will be a further rise today, but i anticipate a 0.4C drop during the cooler spell, so 11.9C-12.1C is the final CET in all likelyhood assuming no further rise.

[Anti-Mild]

According to Phillip Eden, the CET is 12.4C, i am not sure whether there will be a further rise today, but i anticipate a 0.4C drop during the cooler spell, so 11.9C-12.1C is the final CET in all likelyhood assuming no further rise.

My fingers are crossed for 11.9c but I reckon we'll end up on the upper range of that scale, possibly just above it at around 12.2c, so still only 0.9c above average.

I must admit, at the end of April I was toying with the possibility of May ending up cooler than April. While that's not going to be the case it certainly has felt cooler.

Perhaps M.Nature has got April and May mixed up this year!

[Scorcher]

My fingers are crossed for 11.9c but I reckon we'll end up on the upper range of that scale, possibly just above it at around 12.2c, so still only 0.9c above average.

I must admit, at the end of April I was toying with the possibility of May ending up cooler than April. While that's not going to be the case it certainly has felt cooler.

Perhaps M.Nature has got April and May mixed up this year!

Indeed, it's actually only the higher minima that have made it warmer than April. The maximum temperatures were certainly more consistently high for most parts during April than they have been during May. Obviously the warm spell in the South over the past few days has been warmer than anything in April but there has been a North-South divide with many places in the North plagued by cloud and struggling to reach 20C.

[Snowly does it]

According to Phillip Eden, the CET is 12.4C, i am not sure whether there will be a further rise today, but i anticipate a 0.4C drop during the cooler spell, so 11.9C-12.1C is the final CET in all likelyhood assuming no further rise.

With the balmy overnight last night and the warm start to today I think a rise to 12.6 is likely - if the following 4 days (as looks likely) come in at say 9 on the CET scale, we will fall back to 12.1 with a couple of days to go. 11.9 would be reached if the 4 day period came in at 8. 12 looks the target now.

Edited May 25, 2007 by snowmaiden