May CET

[VillagePlank]

As for predictions, 12.5 would be near the top end of what I would think to be likely at this point

Yes, my 13.3 looks to be rather too high, this month. Really am hoping for a warm end . . .

[Weather-history]

Wettest May day only 19.7mm ??? I find that surprising. We've beaten that today already.

That value is referring to a network of stations in England and Wales and not just one station. So all those stations averaged 19.7mm for that day in May 1932.

Edited May 15, 2007 by Mr_Data

[snowray]

Overwhelming agreement today with all of the Ensamble members are now going for a rapid warm up as we enter the last week of the month..Still 10 days out though, no more Northerlys folks, oh what a surprise!

[Optimus Prime]

According to the latest GFS run the period 16th-20th will have an average temperature of 10.8c which is 1.5c below the average for the last half of May.

So by the 20th the CET should be around 11.2c. Or normal to the long term average.

All depending on whether the cold snap occurs. If it doed it could get as low as 10.8c with cool minima.

If we get a notable heatwave towards the end of the month (24 hour average temperautre of 20c or more) the CET would jump up as high as 13.2c in just the space of a week.

Edited May 15, 2007 by Optimus Prime

[Lettucing Gutted]

Harking back to 'Pits' "we're due for a cool one" kinda post.

I think so too but it'll still be above the '71-2000' average even though we'll feel it as cold and wet.

We are also becoming acclimatised to our new situation (habitualised) and so any move away from the extreme is felt as 'cold/cool' even though the stats make a non-sense of it (last Aug for instance!).

I agree with you there Grey Wolf.

So far May 2007 is a bit like August 2006 in that it feels "cold" simply because it is not exceptionally warm or cold after a previous and recent very warm spell.

Is this the new definition of cold?

Edited May 15, 2007 by Craig Evans

[Optimus Prime]

Things aren't entirely as they seem. Some parts of the US had some rediculously low temperatures for April;

http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/cag3.html

Sea temperatures are also cooling down;

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif

And the arctic ice is still running a little above normal compared to last year when it was running a little below;

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...om.region.1.jpg

Back to May...

[Duncan McAlister]

My (perhaps not brilliant) calculation of the CET up to the 31st, according to GFS 12z, makes it 12.8C, just enough for the warmest Spring on record!

Great, the warming just goes on and on

Edited May 15, 2007 by Duncan McAlister

[Snowly does it]

If we get a notable heatwave towards the end of the month (24 hour average temperautre of 20c or more) the CET would jump up as high as 13.2c in just the space of a week.

Thats a big if - a week of temps above the warmest ever month in May after a relatively cool spellis a lot to ask.

12s look good if there is a warm up

[North-Easterly Blast]

Craig Evans; how can you say that this month feels cool; the CET is currently 11.9*C, above average already, just fairly typical so far by Mays of recent years. In relative terms this month is still not like August 2006. which was a month close to the long term average overall but relatively cool by recent August standards. This May so far is still not even cool by the standards of recent years.

[Lettucing Gutted]

Craig Evans; how can you say that this month feels cool; the CET is currently 11.9*C, above average already

1. That last reply was partly just a bit of sarcasm there. Indeed I WISH IT REALLY WAS COLD.

2. However with that last reply I was also agreeing with Grey Wolf's theory that people begin to feel "cool" even when temperatures are just slightly less warm if they have become acclimatized to extreme heat. In other words some people become "habitualised" to extreme heat as Grey Wolfy called it. But I am not one of them.

Believe you me I HATE HEAT!! HA! HA! STOP GLOBAL WARMING!

Edited May 15, 2007 by Craig Evans

[Don]

I agree that this May has felt rather cool which is amazing when it has actually been a fair bit above average so far. We are getting so used to warmer weather now. Just imagine how cold a May 1996 would feel today and that was only 11 years ago!

Unbelievable.

Edited May 15, 2007 by Don

[Stu_London]

Its also fair to say the actual weather has an effect on our perception

Having been quite dull and quite wet, we would naturally associate this with cooler weather. However that is not necessarily the case, especially with regard to night time temperatures

[Snowly does it]

Its April that has done it.

May maxima this year are generally cooler and duller than the late April maxima, hence it feels cooler, I would go as far as to say it feels cool often. Its relative.

It is minima in the main that have this May above the long term average, thats cloud cover for you.

Its a very unremarkable May, there have been no real cold synoptics and no real warm synoptics, just a train of Norwesters, Westers and the occasional 'et al'

[summer blizzard]

A CET within 0.5C either side of 12.5C looks the most plauable outcome to me.

[Stratos Ferric]

Well, this evening's run may prove to be an outlier, but it also happens to be the first chance I've had to do an early month projection. At long last we seem to have a warm plume towards the end of the month and, therefore, is starting to look like all movement after this week will be upside. This early in the month it's still rather hit and miss, and the pattern in the main this year is that the month end has been well outside the early projection: on that basis May would have to come in lower than this run (previous months have come in higher, but I can't see upside from this run for May; what you see here is probably the highest we could return from here).

So, this projection suggests a range of around 13-14. 12.5-13.0 would probably be a safer bet, but on the other hand a sustained run of average conditions goes against a long run of recent form. Splitting the difference I'd say 13-13.5 at present.

[Lettucing Gutted]

So, this projection suggests a range of around 13-14. 12.5-13.0 would probably be a safer bet, but on the other hand a sustained run of average conditions goes against a long run of recent form. Splitting the difference I'd say 13-13.5 at present.

Thirteens to fourteens? Another very warm month. I hate this new climate. I am going to Mars...

[Stratos Ferric]

Thirteens to fourteens? Another very warm month. I hate this new climate. I am going to Mars...

It's not happened yet. Of all the months of the year May is one that has resolutely not moved much over the past decade. Even just 13.0 would be a high finish by recent standards. There hasn't been even a slightly warm May for five years; the only month of the year of which this can be said (on the other hand, nor has there been a cold May).

[VillagePlank]

My 13.3 looks a reasonable punt then SF? Have to admit I was getting a little worried by the falling CET! Just hope that the run you based your projection on isn't an outlier

[snowray]

06z upgrading the heat for the last week of May...

[Kentish Man]

In the meantime yesterdays chill has reduced the CET to 11.8C per Phillip Eden (Apr 1-15).

[snowray]

Thats about as low as its going to get I'd say. Night time temps have been particular high and with the warm up expected I can see things going only one way now, upwards!

[West is Best]

Thats about as low as its going to get I'd say. Night time temps have been particular high and with the warm up expected I can see things going only one way now, upwards!

Agreed. Very warm finale to the month in prospect.

[Stratos Ferric]

Agreed. Very warm finale to the month in prospect.

Ah, but probably not before at least four more threatened northerlies.

[kold weather]

Of course lets not forget the ECM goes for NE and the 06z is well known for over-doing these sorts of set-up, esp in FI. I think probably something close to 13C is likely however and while I think the 06z is way over-doing it I wouldn't be suprised to see a plume actually occur, if a little bit toned down compared to the hyper GFS set-up, which progs close to record temps!

i reckon my Feb forecast of 12.8C for May wil lbe quite close in the end, which is still stunningly warm compared to what we normally see!

Edited May 16, 2007 by kold weather

[Snowly does it]

i reckon my Feb forecast of 12.8C for May wil lbe quite close in the end, which is still stunningly warm compared to what we normally see!

'Stunningly warm'?

That would make it 30th on the list, so top decile but not 'stunning'

I'd say 12.5 will be about the money unless the heatwave comes off. It would already require a sustained 14.3 to hit 13 which is tough going on current synoptics.

Edited May 16, 2007 by snowmaiden