May CET

[Lettucing Gutted]

Since I mentioned this, the GFS outlook has softened (as usual)

Another busted "cold" forcast from the GFS... Never trust the GFS...

Edited May 6, 2007 by Craig Evans

[kold weather]

Given the models right now I'd suspect something about 1C above average is likely by the 20th, while the actual temps will probably be closer to average overall the early warmth that has lagged from April would take a good couple of weeks to get rid off if we are to see more normal values and the sea temps will take far longer then that.

[Optimus Prime]

Trevor Harley review has been released for April;

"April. A magnificent month. A very anticyclonic month, with a marked absence of westerly winds. It was by far the warmest since records began - with a CET of 11.2C it was half a degree warmer than the previous record holder, 1865. There was a notable dry warm spell early and midmonth. The highest temperature of the month was 26.5CC (just under 80F) at Herstmonceux (E. Sussex) on the 15h. Very dry - many places had no rain until the final week. The average England and Wales rainfall was 13.2 mm, just 18% of the average, making it the driest since 1957. Even Scotland (45%0 and Northern Ireland were relatively dry. Some stations (around Thorney Island and Canterbury) saw no rain all month. It was also the second sunniest April on record (beaten just by 1893), England and Wales averaging 238 hours."

http://www.personal.dundee.ac.uk/~taharley/2007_weather.htm

[reef]

Hadley have confirmed the April CET was 11.2°C, beating the old record set in 1865 by half a degree. Astonishing.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/hadle.../HadCET_act.txt

[summer blizzard]

Phillip Eden has the current CET as 11.9C, which is 1.9C above the rolling average.

[Stratos Ferric]

This is turning into an interesting month, with still no discernible pattern emerging. At the end of this week CET looks like being around 11.5-12. With a warming month and the sun really starting to climb I can't see it falling back thereafter to finish any lower, the question is whether we will keep getting tantalising touches of polar air. Those of us with highish punts have to be holding out for a very warm last week as things sit at present, but this is the time of year where it's still possible to make big strides up in the last ten days.

[Calrissian]

Well, one week in...and according to Mr Eden its 12.1 for 1-7 May.

12.1 , thats 2 whole degrees above average, and its been a pretty dull and unspectacular month so far.

2 degrees already, once that ridge builds (as it will sooner or later), we'll start hitting those upper 70s again, the 'warm 15+ nights', and a May CET of +13.5 will become a given. Another fine Jump month indeed.

I can't wait for the next poster who dares to suggest a 'cooler' blast will bring the CET back to near-average.

Calrissian: 13.8 remains precisely on target.

[Stu_London]

Well, one week in...and according to Mr Eden its 12.1 for 1-7 May.

12.1 , thats 2 whole degrees above average, and its been a pretty dull and unspectacular month so far.

2 degrees already, once that ridge builds (as it will sooner or later), we'll start hitting those upper 70s again, the 'warm 15+ nights', and a May CET of +13.5 will become a given. Another fine Jump month indeed.

I can't wait for the next poster who dares to suggest a 'cooler' blast will bring the CET back to near-average.

Calrissian: 13.8 remains precisely on target.

Just to get this post in perspective, the warm start to the month is largely due to the 850s starting the month about 4C above the 30 year mean - althought this was actually on a cooling trend from the 8-10C above average that most of the second half of April had. The graph on Philip's site shows this quite clearly.

Also the 2C Above average relates to the average first few days of the month not the whole of May.

The trend has continued and we are now about average but the +2C is largely residual from the long warm spell that typified April. There is no ridge (in the reliable timeframe) indeed the unsettled weather continues for some time and there is a hint that daytime temps may drop off a few more degrees. Where the CET goes in the short to medium term will partly be dependant on whether cloud and wind ease off to allow for some chillier nights.

However, I would be surprised if it is still above 12C this time next week.

[The PIT]

I can't wait for the next poster who dares to suggest a 'cooler' blast will bring the CET back to near-average.

Calrissian: 13.8 remains precisely on target.

A cooler blast will bring it back to average. There you go.

[kold weather]

Yes the warmth we've seen is a classic sign of the lag of warmth that built up in the super April and is also an effect of way above average SSt's that are present pretty much the whole way across the Atlantic. Once a ridge builds then if anything we might see the CET dropping a touch as the night-time mins will drop away much more then presently which does make the difference, esp if the ridge as a m,ean position to our west, which is more likely this month then for it to build over as the synoptics are a little different to last month.

Edited May 8, 2007 by kold weather

[Stratos Ferric]

...

However, I would be surprised if it is still above 12C this time next week.

It's certainly going to need to get a bit cooler yet for any downward movement. Today again has 16s and 17s widely across the south, and minima last night generally around 8-9. Hardly any change to CET, but an upward nudge looks likelier than a downward one. The next few days look broadly similar. I think the month clearly hinges on whether we get a more settled pattern later in the month, or wether we stay more perturbed. We're overdue the latter, but the former is the in-form pony.

[PersianPaladin]

Temps in the CET zone today have ranged between a maxima of 13-15C

Source: XCWeather and Net-weather

Edited May 8, 2007 by PersianPaladin

[The PIT]

We peaked today at 14.6C so it depends on what tonight brings. Low temps cet will drop back a little double figure mins it'll stay close to where it is now.

[Stratos Ferric]

Temps in the CET zone today have ranged between a maxima of 13-15C

Source: XCWeather and Net-weather

PP, you need to use the UKMO 24hr graphical plots. XC weather only shows here and now. Benson's had 17.6, Little Rissington 15.9, Malvern 17.1, Coleshill 15.7, Brize 17.0. Certainly cooler further north though, but I'd still expect today's composite max to come in at around at least 14.

[PersianPaladin]

PP, you need to use the UKMO 24hr graphical plots. XC weather only shows here and now. Benson's had 17.6, Little Rissington 15.9, Malvern 17.1, Coleshill 15.7, Brize 17.0. Certainly cooler further north though, but I'd still expect today's composite max to come in at around at least 14.

I'm talking about maxima, and I've been watching these areas all afternoon....unlikely that they were warmer in the morning!

I guess there are a few areas anamolously warmer than others in the CET zone; but they are very much exceptions to the rule. The composite max comes between 13 and 15C as you and I have already said.

Bare in mind...RAF stations skew temperature readings above the surrounding temps! They are not representative of most areas. Its like me choosing to put my thermometer in my sun-trap backgarden rather than the front....i.e. a bad idea.

Edited May 8, 2007 by PersianPaladin

[Stratos Ferric]

I'm talking about maxima, and I've been watching these areas all afternoon....unlikely that they were warmer in the morning!

I guess there are a few areas anamolously warmer than others in the CET zone; but they are very much exceptions to the rule. The composite max comes between 13 and 15C as you and I have already said.

PP, have you actually bothered checking the UKMO data? There's plenty of sites in the S Midlands (well within the CET zone) with maxes of 16+: hardly anomalies.

...

Bare in mind...RAF stations skew temperature readings above the surrounding temps! They are not representative of most areas. Its like me choosing to put my thermometer in my sun-trap backgarden rather than the front....i.e. a bad idea.

What a load of total and utter tosh. An official UKMO site is an official UKMO site, all subject to the same stringent criteria. And in case you hadn't noticed RAF stations are likely to be cooler than the norm (and certainly not warmer) given that they're consistently rural.

Honestly, that is one of the daftest things I've seen written on here for ages, even coming from the king of conspiracy theories who has, in the past, set the bar fairly high.

[PersianPaladin]

What a load of total and utter tosh. An official UKMO site is an official UKMO site, all subject to the same stringent criteria. And in case you hadn't noticed RAF stations are likely to be cooler than the norm (and certainly not warmer) given that they're consistently rural.

Honestly, that is one of the daftest things I've seen written on here for ages, even coming from the king of conspiracy theories who has, in the past, set the bar fairly high.

Here is a picture of Brize Norton: -

http://www.deltaweb.co.uk/eagles/shows/lowestoft06_20.jpg

Now judging where the Stevenson's screen\recording station is in that place; we are likely to get a range of temps. The concrete and the residual heat from the busy aircraft is going to affect temps.

I would suspect that this be a notable anamoly within a very small radial area, as the surrounding area is particularly rural. If the surrounding area was the conurbation of Birmingham....then of course, there would be no issue. We all know how conurbations can affect regional weather anyway.

Edited May 8, 2007 by PersianPaladin

[Kentish Man]

We had winds gusting up to 45mph in my part of Kent today. I think any residual aircraft heat etc would dissipate pretty quickly if the winds were anything like that strong in the RAF bases you mention!

[PersianPaladin]

We had winds gusting up to 45mph in my part of Kent today. I think any residual aircraft heat etc would dissipate pretty quickly if the winds were anything like that strong in the RAF bases you mention!

Don't forget diabatic heating too and the effects of concrete!

[Stratos Ferric]

Here is a picture of Brize Norton: -

http://www.deltaweb.co.uk/eagles/shows/lowestoft06_20.jpg

Now judging where the Stevenson's screen\recording station is in that place; we are likely to get a range of temps. The concrete and the residual heat from the busy aircraft is going to affect temps.

I would suspect that this be a notable anamoly within a very small radial area, as the surrounding area is particularly rural. If the surrounding area was the conurbation of Birmingham....then of course, there would be no issue. We all know how conurbations can affect regional weather anyway.

Where the "f" is it?

PP, you are truly staggering; you're not related to that really irritating bloke on The Apprentice are you who seem incapable of dropping the bone? I take it you're proposing a "spot the Stevenson Screen" competition, otherwise you'd better share your wisdom with us all and tell us where the screen is. Maybe we need to ask John for a view, he used to work at Finningley didn't he.

Your average RAF base is not LHR. Traffic comes and goes relatively infrequently, and even so the thermal capacity of a tonne or two of metal is not that great compared to the thermal capacity of the earth. I like your notion that somehow the "anomalous warmth" at the many stations in the south of England is because they are airfields

You'll be attributing GW to the RAF next. No you won't, you'll be suggesting that the CET is a defunct meaasure.

[Calrissian]

The denialists will pick on anything to denounce climate change.

NEVER underestimate how desperate some of them are. As you have just seen a few posts earlier, they'll even start whining about the very data monitoring stations themselves. Even if the stations were biased, the VERY same stations are generally showing increasing temps across the years/decades.

What could be the reason ? More RAF sorties ?

Such people can not be reasoned with, its pointless to even try.

Calrissian: as accurate as an RAF thermometer.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Where the "f" is it?

My sentiments exactly- I spent ages looking for the screen!

[PersianPaladin]

My sentiments exactly- I spent ages looking for the screen!

LOL. I think it was a case of wrong use of words. I shouldn't have said 'judging'....I should've said 'depending'.

I think next time I should've done a "where's wally" competition....in this case tho, it'll be certain closed-minded people on this forum.

Edited May 9, 2007 by PersianPaladin

[PersianPaladin]

The denialists will pick on anything to denounce climate change.

NEVER underestimate how desperate some of them are. As you have just seen a few posts earlier, they'll even start whining about the very data monitoring stations themselves. Even if the stations were biased, the VERY same stations are generally showing increasing temps across the years/decades.

What could be the reason ? More RAF sorties ?

Such people can not be reasoned with, its pointless to even try.

Calrissian: as accurate as an RAF thermometer.

I have never denied AGW. I merely said that RAF stations can skew readings to higher or lower values in summer and winter respectivley - compared to the immediate areas. Perhaps I'm being a touch too unconfident in the METO here but a few RAF stations were quoted by Stratos as support for his claim that temps exceeded 15C in the CET area. I argued they were exceptions to the range of maxima...which was between 13-15C.

Btw....up where I live; Teesside Airport has a very notable affect on temps in winter and summer. And no, its not a big airport.

Edited May 9, 2007 by PersianPaladin

[skifreak]

You'll be attributing GW to the RAF next.

Well the RAF pumps out as much if not more carbon emissions in Scotland than all commercial flights in/to Scotland put together!