May CET

[summer blizzard]

Given that my alternate method backs an outturn of 13.8C, i will back my 10.8C prediction.

[shuggee]

13.3C for me

[Snowly does it]

The last 10 years have averaged 12.1 and I have been using the ten year as a base this year - adding or subtracting based on hoe things look - I have been well below most months doing this. As such and given the way GFS looks as of now I will go for 10 year mean plus 1 degree - 13.1 meaning the Spring record will be disintegrated.

If thats not enough I am at a loss - thats the globally warmed recent average of 10 years with a full degree added for good measure on the back of a run of very warm months.... surely enough???????

[summer blizzard]

To break the spring record, we need a May CET of around 13.5C.

[Snowly does it]

To break the spring record, we need a May CET of around 13.5C.

I thought the Spring record was 10.2?

If it is (30.6 total) then take away 7.2 for March, 23.4, then assume 11 for April, 12.3 left to take the record??

[James M]

mmmmm I'll go for 12.3C hopefully with lots of rain.

[VillagePlank]

13.3C for me, please.

Edited April 24, 2007 by VillagePlank

[suffolkboy_]

I say... 13.6 A warm start with high pressure in control, maximas in the mid 20s some days, but cloud sometimes keeping night time temperatures up. A change to more unsettled weather around the end of the second week with low pressure trying to nudge in. Another week of warm weather after this as southerlies push in, maybe aproachin the 30C mark, maybe cooler and more unsettled by the last few days of May. Dry for the east and central areas of england, but perhaps the north of England, Wales, Ireland and Scotland seeing the most of any rain, but still below average in most of these areas.

Edited April 24, 2007 by suffolkboy_

[johnholmes]

I don't normally dabble in this type of mystic Meg idea but, what the heck, so 13.1C

[beng]

Some very warm predictions on here (hardly surprising though given what we've seen)!

I'm going to go for 11.8c (+0.5 above the 71-2000 average).

I'm actually expecting a fairly wet month - which would go against most of the longer range models at the moment (except possibly ECM) - based on the developing cold SSTA off the US east coast, coupled with those to our North helping to push the jet somewhat further South than we've seen. I can actually see it running through the middle of the UK as the month progresses so we might see a trail of rather slow moving Atlantic depressions.

We could also see a few thundery downpours given the warmth that's around.

[Stargazer]

I'll go for 13.1.

[Somerset Squall]

I'll go for 12.5C

[Upgrade]

15.5

[kold weather]

Some very warm predictions on here (hardly surprising though given what we've seen)!

I'm going to go for 11.8c (+0.5 above the 71-2000 average).

I'm actually expecting a fairly wet month - which would go against most of the longer range models at the moment (except possibly ECM) - based on the developing cold SSTA off the US east coast, coupled with those to our North helping to push the jet somewhat further South than we've seen. I can actually see it running through the middle of the UK as the month progresses so we might see a trail of rather slow moving Atlantic depressions.

We could also see a few thundery downpours given the warmth that's around.

Very intresting post Beng, I think I'll peg my May CET down a touch, maybe down to 12.2C. Its intresting to see the models are starting to indicate the chances of a negative AO forming, long way to go but there are hints tohugh whether its just seeing things that aren't there, who knows!

Still if we do get a -ve AO then it'll relaly shunt the high pressure. Should be worrth noting its exactly what happened in August 06 and how that was broken in, we may see a similar type of pattern in May IF it breaksdown now, this pattern could have in theory a good month to run in the summer BUT the jet is a little more mobile then it would be in the heart of summer.

[PersianPaladin]

15.5

[snowray]

11c. Surely we are due a below ave month sooner or later...Or are we?

[sundog]

i will go for 12.7

[Stu_London]

Some interesting reading in here and some wild punting - Joe Coral and William Hill would love you lot to frequent their shops.

It's interesting that a pattern change is now being progged as coming into the reliable time frame.

I like KW's idea of an easterly month as it is not difficult to envisage low pressure to our south, high pressure to the north west. Never going to be that cold at this time of year though but could give the south a fair bit of needed rain.

Off the back of such a high April CET, there is a better chance of a colder May than April for only the 7th time since records began and I was really tempted to go for that at one stage. However, I feel that in this day and age to rule out a warm to hot spell occuring in a whole month is a bit blinkered.

Therefore I go for 11.9C, although I would not be surprised to see the in running average for May be below the final April CET figure until late in the month.

The spring record may stay intact if may guess is near the mark.

[skifreak]

15.0c

Lets try reverse psychology here!

[PersianPaladin]

13.2C

Btw...once you make a punt. You can't change it!!

Edited April 25, 2007 by PersianPaladin

[West is Best]

12.7C

Climate change is not going to mean a linear rise into a sauna, and has yet to override synoptics entirely. Thus, some cooler months to be expected. 12.7C now counts as 'cool' in the modern climate.

[Weather-history]

12.7C now counts as 'cool' in the modern climate.

How do you justify that? There's only been 3 Mays with a CET higher than that since 1988.

Edited April 25, 2007 by Mr_Data

[VillagePlank]

12.7C seems to be the difference between the 10 yr moving average, and the 30 yr one (at a quick glance) so it seems to me to be entirely reasonable, and does hold some merit with reference to the quantification of known data. I think it's a little cool, though, West!

Edit: Just done the mathematics: the actual figure is 12.43C (30yrMA+10yrMA)/2, so perhaps it's a little on the mild side being pegged down a little by the 30yrMA. Certainly within the ballpark of a good statistical guess, though (I would say within 0.5C either way, depending on what mood you're in, and if you attribute some skill in this method - I don't necessarily, as there is a whole universe of problems with super-aggregate statistics . . .)

Edited April 25, 2007 by VillagePlank

[Rollo]

Well every one of my punts has been way too low thus far so this month I will try 14.6c, that probably means plenty of snow and a true CET of 9c.

[Weather-history]

12.7C seems to be the difference between the 10 yr moving average, and the 30 yr one (at a quick glance) so it seems to me to be entirely reasonable, and does hold some merit with reference to the quantification of known data. I think it's a little cool, though, West!

Edit: Just done the mathematics: the actual figure is 12.43C (30yrMA+10yrMA)/2, so perhaps it's a little on the mild side being pegged down a little by the 30yrMA. Certainly within the ballpark of a good statistical guess, though (I would say within 0.5C either way, depending on what mood you're in, and if you attribute some skill in this method - I don't necessarily, as there is a whole universe of problems with super-aggregate statistics . . .)

The figure I get using that equation is 11.8.

Mays 1997-2006 ~ 12.2 average

Mays 1977-2006 ~ 11.5 average

Edited April 25, 2007 by Mr_Data