May CET

[Supacell]

I'm going to go with 13.5.

I would've gone warmer but for the fact i think night time temps could be quite cool (with a distinct lack of any proper cloud under persistent HP) bringing the numbers down. Weather for May will be sunny and warm days, cool and clear nights with very little exception.

[Intrepid]

Il go for 13.5c

[J10]

It's going to be warmer than average, and probably well warmer than average, so I'm going for

13.2c

[The Calm before the Storm]

I'll punt for 12.3c.

First half of the month cooler and unsettled with a northwesterly flow, second half more settled and warm.

TCBTS

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

16C.

I actually think it's possible to get that in May nowadays, with all these record-breaking months of late and SSTs well above average- if we can get 16.6 in September when days are much shorter surely we can approach or even beat that in May; like the September record the May one has been there to be smashed for ages (1833, and that came after a January almost 6C colder than this year's, and a March and April both more than 3C colder- surely the SSTs must have been way below 2007's?).

So SSTs are a red herring?????

BFTP

[Snowly does it]

16C.

I actually think it's possible to get that in May nowadays, with all these record-breaking months of late and SSTs well above average- if we can get 16.6 in September when days are much shorter surely we can approach or even beat that in May; like the September record the May one has been there to be smashed for ages (1833, and that came after a January almost 6C colder than this year's, and a March and April both more than 3C colder- surely the SSTs must have been way below 2007's?).

Average temps in May are much lower at night than in September by a full 4 degrees near enough and by day about a degree and a half down.

16 in May would be not just an announcement of phase *inset higher figure than last figure given for GW*, but a serious alarm - thats a full 4.7 degrees above the rolling 30 year mean and might be expected as an average figure by around 2100 by current climatic trends. Hit it, and worry!

[Stratos Ferric]

Well, I still can't see anything remotely cold (may not be saying that in 2-3 months' time though), and that's the driver of average or less. On that basis my punt for May is:

14.1C

[reef]

I just cant see an end to the run of well above average months at present. I do however think that we will be well down on the record due to more cyclonic weather, giving higher mins but supressed maxes.

Hence Im going for the joint 6th warmest May on record with 1992 and 1727 at 13.6°C, breaking the spring record easily.

[West is Best]

Right I'm changing my punt (entirely permitted under the rules of this annual competition please note providing it's by midnight). The last time I did this I went too high (and then endured a nah-nah-na-nah-nah) but there's little cool in the offing. I'd go the same as Stratos, but for the sake of it will go a notch higher so:

14.2C

[Bobby]

I'm also going to change my prediction. I think my 12.7 (think it was that) will be a bit too low. New prediction: 13.2c

[Stratos Ferric]

16C.

I actually think it's possible to get that in May nowadays, with all these record-breaking months of late and SSTs well above average- if we can get 16.6 in September when days are much shorter surely we can approach or even beat that in May; like the September record the May one has been there to be smashed for ages (1833, and that came after a January almost 6C colder than this year's, and a March and April both more than 3C colder- surely the SSTs must have been way below 2007's?).

May will never be as warm as September in the UK. The thermal lag behind the sun, largely a function of the time taken for the seas to reach their summer maximum temperature, is around 4-5 weeks. Therefore, although May is closer to midsummer, it is further away from the thermal peak by a month on average, which equates to something like 2.5C given our seasonal warming and cooling. Of course there will be odd days when it is warmer, but these will tend to be towards the end of the month.

[J10]

Just a reminder to those who have yet to enter, that April's results are now available here ->

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=37279

[Pudsey]

13.3C for me please.

[Kentish Man]

Put me down for 12.2C please

[osmposm]

I can't work out which depresses me more - the relentless upwards temp push, or my complete uselessness at guessing anywhere near it.

OK,OK, enough whining. Let's say high, but not ridiculous: 13.2^oC

[acbrixton]

12.8 for my guesstimate please. A mere 0.7 above the rather inflated 10 year running CET average.

Regards

ACB

[West is Best]

Just a reminder to those who have yet to enter, that April's results are now available here ->

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=37279

Provisional figures though surely? The 11.1C that the Met Office released on 27th April is only provisional.

We will await Hadley confirmation I think, no?

[Lettucing Gutted]

Has the "forcasted" Northerlies for this May gone off the radar again?

Edited April 30, 2007 by Craig Evans

[Duncan McAlister]

The models are so fickle at the moment so this is purely a pot shot - 12.3C, about the 10-year mean, and less sun will mean lower day temps.

[reef]

May will never be as warm as September in the UK. The thermal lag behind the sun, largely a function of the time taken for the seas to reach their summer maximum temperature, is around 4-5 weeks. Therefore, although May is closer to midsummer, it is further away from the thermal peak by a month on average, which equates to something like 2.5C given our seasonal warming and cooling. Of course there will be odd days when it is warmer, but these will tend to be towards the end of the month.

Although your points are absolutely spot on, May has actually been warmer than September 28 times in the CET series, the most recent being 1992. May will never on average be warmer than September, but there are a few exceptions.

Mays warmer than September:

1672, 1674, 1684, 1685, 1703, 1758, 1768, 1788, 1807, 1808, 1809, 1822, 1829, 1830, 1833, 1840, 1847, 1848, 1860, 1889, 1893, 1912, 1918, 1919, 1922, 1925, 1952 and 1992.

Im not sure if this is possible these days. Getting a well above average May is a no-brainer, but a well below average September, thats a tough one.

Edited April 30, 2007 by reef

[Mark Bayley]

Here are all the C.E.T entries for may 2007

Sub Zero 10.6c

Snowray 11c

Summer blizzard 11.3c

Eddie 11.5c

The underwriter 11.5c

Terminal Moraine 11.5c

Benq 11.8c

Anti-Mild 11.9c

Stu London 11.9c

Fish dude 12c

Phil n. Warks 12.1c

Kold weather 12.1c

Kentish man 12.2c

James m 12.3c

Windswept 12.3c

The calm before the storm 12.3c

Blast from the past 12.4c

Mr data 12.5c

Cheeky monkey 12.3c

Duncan McAlister 12.3c

Somerset squall 12.5c

Bottesford 12.5c

Optimus prime 12.6c

Sundog 12.7c

Steve B 12.8c

Roger J Smith 12.8c

Thundery wintry showers 12.8c

Acbrixton 12.8c

Snowfluff 12.9c

Snowyoul9 12.9c

Slipknotsam 12.9c

Mark Bayley 13.0c

Glacier point 13.0c

The penguin 13.0c

Stargazer 13.1c

Johnholmes 13.1c

DAVID SNOW 13.2c

Jackone 13.2c

Magpie 13.2c

PersianPaladin 13.2c

Osmposm 13.2c

Village plank 13.3c

Paul Sherman 13.3c

Pudsey 13.3c

WBSH 13.3c

Suffolkboy 13.3c

Shuggee 13.3c

Mark H 13.4c

Joneseye 13.4c

Supacell 13.5c

Intrepid 13.5c

Great Plum 13.6c

Reef 13.6c

Parmenides3 13.7c

Don 13.7c

Calrissian 13.8c

Tamara G 13.9c

Stephen prudence 13.9c

Snow –Man2006 13.9c

High pressure 14.0c

Ukmoose 14.0c

Mk 13 14.0c

The Pit 14.0c

Grey Wolf 14.0c

Cymru 14.0c

Stratos Ferric 14.1c

West is best 14.2c

Vince 14.5c

Rollo 14.6c

Gavin p 14.7c

Paul Carfoot 14.8c

Skifreak 15.0c

Jimmyay 15.5c

Paul 15.5c

Craig Evans 15.5c

Summer of 95 16.0c

The Lowest C.E.T comes from sub zero at 10.6c

The highest C.E.T comes from summer of 95 at 16.0c

Edited May 1, 2007 by mark bayley

[Guest Mike W]

Looks like 13.3 is the middle prediction for May. Baecasue it won't happen I will go for 10.8.

[Mark Bayley]

12.86c is the average in all the C.E.T predictions for this may.

Edited May 1, 2007 by mark bayley

[Snowly does it]

Mark, you've left me out again, 13.1

I'm starting to feel shunned here

P.S this is not a late entry, I entered this a way back in the thread

Edited May 1, 2007 by snowmaiden

[ukmoose]

Mark, you've left me out again, 13.1

I'm starting to feel shunned here

P.S this is not a late entry, I entered this a way back in the thread

It's not deliberate SM, don't panic! No-one would want to miss you out! When you put these charts together it's really quite fiddly and despite constant checking, easy to miss one or two or make the odd mistake! It'll be rectified soon.

Regards,

Moose