May CET

[Norrance]

Though the CET area is looking to be above average although wet, I think the North so far in May must be a bit below. We have had several cloudy days with cold North Easterly winds and also some cool nights. Max temps have been around 10 degrees in general.

We could have done with being on the North side ofd the low pressure systems several months ago.

[Weather-history]

Kevin B (Mr Data);

Would it be possible to list the years where Mays had a cooler second half compared to the first half? You did this for March and April. For a start, last May had a cooler second half than the first and so did May 2000.

Since 1870

1875, 1878, 1891, 1894, 1895, 1907, 1912, 1923, 1934, 1935, 1950

1955, 1956, 1958, 1959, 1960, 1961, 1962, 1965, 1969, 1970, 1971

1988, 1990, 1994, 2000, 2006

[Gray-Wolf]

Harking back to 'Pits' "we're due for a cool one" kinda post.

I think so too but it'll still be above the '71-2000' average even though we'll feel it as cold and wet.

We are also becoming acclimatised to our new situation (habitualised) and so any move away from the extreme is felt as 'cold/cool' even though the stats make a non-sense of it (last Aug for instance!).

[The PIT]

Wettest May day only 19.7mm ??? I find that surprising. We've beaten that today already.

[Stratos Ferric]

Wettest May day only 19.7mm ??? I find that surprising. We've beaten that today already.

It does seem unlikely.

[North-Easterly Blast]

Thanks Kevin once again for information on years that produced Mays with a second half cooler than the first half.

To re-cap once again for all the spring months I would also be grateful if you could post again the years which produced a March with a second half colder than the first half and years that produced an April with a second half colder than the first half, as this information seems to have disappeared from the forum now.

[snowray]

Well it will be interesting to see if we can achieve a colder 2nd half of the month then the 1st half, 18z tonight looking particularly chilly and with a contunuation of the unsettled theme.

[Weather-history]

Years where the first half of May was cooler than the second half of April since 1870

1870, 1871, 1874, 1876, 1885, 1897, 1900, 1901, 1902, 1909, 1914, 1916

1932, 1941, 1943, 1944, 1963, 1968, 1975, 1984, 1987, 1993, 1996, 2003

[Stu_London]

11.9C for the period 1st to 13th May.

Can't see much change in the next 4-5 days, then GFS goes for a cooler period from the 19th for a few days

The warmest spring record is looking much less likely but May cooler than April anybody?

Longshot - will depend largely on the nighttime minimas during the alleged cooler spell.

Rainfall looks like hitting the average for the month today, so with the unsettled theme looking like continuing May could be a very wet month indeed, also very much in contrast with April.

Data from P Edens excellent climate UK site.

[Weather-history]

The warmest spring record is looking much less likely but May cooler than April anybody?

Its only happened 6 times

1755, 1814, 1821, 1869, 1894, 1987

Hmm, I don't think it will happen.

[Stu_London]

Its only happened 6 times

1755, 1814, 1821, 1869, 1894, 1987

Hmm, I don't think it will happen.

I don't either, but it may be quite a close run thing

[Bobby]

I wonder if we could have a record CET drop like we did from July to August year. Looks a possibility considering the output and the current CET.

[Snowly does it]

A cooler May than April is very unlikely IMO - this week my see it drop closer to April's figure but we are moving into a time now when any sort of HP involvement is going to see 20s easily recorded and minima look high to me - often the minima are around the April figure

It will do well to come in at the 30 year Average sad as that is to say. 12 looks a far more likely figure, around the 10 year average.

That speaks volumes for our changed reality - if this May come sin around the 10 year average and above the 30 year average, its felt utterly horrible!

Edited May 14, 2007 by snowmaiden

[Stu_London]

A cooler May than April is very unlikely IMO - this week my see it drop closer to April's figure but we are moving into a time now when any sort of HP involvement is going to see 20s easily recorded and minima look high to me - often the minima are around the April figure

It will do well to come in at the 30 year Average sad as that is to say. 12 looks a far more likely figure, around the 10 year average.

That speaks volumes for our changed reality - if this May come sin around the 10 year average and above the 30 year average, its felt utterly horrible!

I agree it's unlikely to be cooler than April, although much will depend on how much it can dip in a below average period that may last until around 21st of the month.

If there is no heatwave in the last 3rd it could be game on!

[kold weather]

I agree with you SM, something close to 12C is the most likely outcome from the looks of things though it does just depends whether or not we do have any sort of northerly flow that has been hinted from a couple of models recently past the 20th.

Looks like a lot of people are way too high for the CET if this month carries on going the way its going.

[Polar Continental]

I agree with you SM, something close to 12C is the most likely outcome from the looks of things though it does just depends whether or not we do have any sort of northerly flow that has been hinted from a couple of models recently past the 20th.

Looks like a lot of people are way too high for the CET if this month carries on going the way its going.

Current mean in Burton 12.1c, this has come down slightly in the last few days, so with the projected cooler conditions, this may well drop a little more. My prediction of 14.8c is going to be way out, lol

Paul

[Snowly does it]

Re the comments above after mine. Yes, a lot depends on the state of things in the 21st-31st period, I would think that we will still be above average by then (only just though perhaps) and to its all to play for. To get below April it would of course have to be a significantly below average spell for late May, thats the tricky bit! Were this a later in the year month we'd be well placed!

[Snowyowl9]

Wettest May day only 19.7mm ??? I find that surprising. We've beaten that today already.

That does take some believing as we had 2.5inches (63.5mm) from 11a.m. yesterday to first thing this morning which is a record for May here by far looking back. :huh:

From very dry to water literally coming out of the ground as it`s saturated.

[Stratos Ferric]

Has a strange form of follow-my-leader madness descended on the forum this evening? Is nobody actually looking at the charts? The weekend looks rather warm, and next week's polar burst must be about the tenth to appear on the charts in the period beyond 168h since the last one actually landed. I don't think this month is going to be as excessively warm as several other recent months, but 12.5-13.0 still looks fairly likely to me. It's not impossible, but I'd be very surprised if H2 turned out cooler than H1.

[Nick H]

Just got back from London and it's one of the coldest nights I can remember for a while, I must look at the forecast lows.

[snowray]

Its certainly been chilly and wet around London today and a coldish night is in store for many but things could well start to warm up from now on, the colder Northerlys seem to be yet again dissapearing from the charts and its going to be interesting to see if the Milder air wins through. Chances are that we will indeed end up with an above average month in the End but its on a knifes egde still I think.

Edited May 14, 2007 by snowray

[Roger J Smith]

Sunshine and rainshowers and odd phantom cold spells,

Winds straight from Greenland the seven day prog tells,

Patches of blue near the north coast of Mull,

Without these signs all would be deadly dull.

Deosn't get cold and it doean't get warm now,

Everyone looks at the map and says oh wow,

Here comes another day right on the mean,

Couple more weeks would be quite peachy keen.

[WhiteFox]

Ne'er cast a clout till May be out and all that. Or perhaps the middle of May with Global Warming...

[Roger J Smith]

Or as the Indians said to Columbus, "this isn't the end of the world, and by the way, what the hell is a curry take-out?"

[Stu_London]

Has a strange form of follow-my-leader madness descended on the forum this evening? Is nobody actually looking at the charts? The weekend looks rather warm, and next week's polar burst must be about the tenth to appear on the charts in the period beyond 168h since the last one actually landed. I don't think this month is going to be as excessively warm as several other recent months, but 12.5-13.0 still looks fairly likely to me. It's not impossible, but I'd be very surprised if H2 turned out cooler than H1.

To be fair there wasn't any real warmth in the near term or longer term until ex sub TD-Andrea popped up later yesterday from knowwhere.

Prior to that it was average then cooler.

Reassessing things now, its looks as if we will be warm and wet, cooler and dryer and then there appears to be a definate trend to warm to hot conditions in the last week of the month. However this is factoring in a pattern change that has only appeared in the last two runs and needs to be nailed down - also this is a little far away to be putting detail on just yet.

As for predictions, 12.5 would be near the top end of what I would think to be likely at this point

Edited May 15, 2007 by Stu_London