May CET

[kold weather]

Is it really that low, ah well thats my bad then, but its still warm compared to average I suppose, 12.5C is I believe my figure, well it was close to that anyway!

[Snowly does it]

Is it really that low, ah well thats my bad then, but its still warm compared to average I suppose, 12.5C is I believe my figure, well it was close to that anyway!

Yes it would be warm compared to average (and 12.8 would be 0.7 above the recent 10 year average too)

[snowray]

Its a pitty that we are not going to get the colder nights that had been progged a couple of days ago with temps dipping to around and even below zero in some inland parts, I'm sure that would have knocked the CET down a tad.

[Calrissian]

woo hoo, great news on the outlook chart.

13.8 is looking a pretty fair bet.

---

I was looking at the Hadley site, and it is inevitable that the trend levels off a bit (1.5c above average, rather than 3.5), but again, May looks set to be well above normal. Considering all the rain, and current lousy fortnight, its going to be a great second half of the month.

Calrissian: awaiting LOST 3x21

[Kentish Man]

woo hoo, great news on the outlook chart.

13.8 is looking a pretty fair bet.

---

I was looking at the Hadley site, and it is inevitable that the trend levels off a bit (1.5c above average, rather than 3.5), but again, May looks set to be well above normal. Considering all the rain, and current lousy fortnight, its going to be a great second half of the month.

Calrissian: awaiting LOST 3x21

According to Phillip Eden the CET for May now stands at 11.7C (Apr 1-16). While it may go up a bit over the next couple of days, overall there will not be much change to the 23rd. After that where it goes depends on whether you believe the current GFS or ECMWF version of events. To reach 13.8C would need an extraordinary final week heatwave.

[Weather-history]

Years where the first half of May was cooler than the second half of April since 1870

1870, 1871, 1874, 1876, 1885, 1897, 1900, 1901, 1902, 1909, 1914, 1916

1932, 1941, 1943, 1944, 1963, 1968, 1975, 1984, 1987, 1993, 1996, 2003

2007 is now added to the list.

[johnholmes]

According to Phillip Eden the CET for May now stands at 11.7C (Apr 1-16). While it may go up a bit over the next couple of days, overall there will not be much change to the 23rd. After that where it goes depends on whether you believe the current GFS or ECMWF version of events. To reach 13.8C would need an extraordinary final week heatwave.

Apr 1-16

assume that is May1-16?

my mean value is currently at 12.3C having dropped 0.5C since the last check on 11th May

long term average here is 11.3C

[Kentish Man]

Apr 1-16

assume that is May1-16?

Yes :lol:

[DR Hosking]

Apr 1-16

assume that is May1-16?

my mean value is currently at 12.3C having dropped 0.5C since the last check on 11th May

long term average here is 11.3C

Here in Northants mean is currently 12 degrees, thats 0,5 degrees below 30 year average.

Rainfall is at 137 % for the month and counting, raining most of today too. Thats 4 of the 5 months of this year well above average for rainfall.

[The PIT]

It's getting a nice boot upwards at the moment. Should slow or stop over the weekend though.

[snowray]

The down side will be very Limited from now on in my opinion, a couple of chilly nights will not be enough to compensate, writings on the wall!

[Joneseye]

Snowray 11c

Summer blizzard 11.3c

Eddie 11.5c

The underwriter 11.5c

Terminal Moraine 11.5c

Benq 11.8c

Anti-Mild 11.9c

Stu London 11.9c

Fish dude 12c

Phil n. Warks 12.1c

Kold weather 12.1c

Kentish man 12.2c

James m 12.3c

Windswept 12.3c

The calm before the storm 12.3c

Duncan McAlister 12.3c

Cheeky monkey 12.3c

Blast from the past 12.4c

Mr data 12.5c

Somerset squall 12.5c

Bottesford 12.5c

Optimus prime 12.6c

Sub Zero 12.6c

Sundog 12.7c

Steve B 12.8c

Roger J Smith 12.8c

Thundery wintry showers 12.8c

Acbrixton 12.8c

Snowfluff 12.9c

Snowyoul9 12.9c

Slipknotsam 12.9c

Mark Bayley 13.0c

Glacier point 13.0c

The penguin 13.0c

Stargazer 13.1c

Johnholmes 13.1c

Snowmaiden 13.1c

DAVID SNOW 13.2c

Jackone 13.2c

Magpie 13.2c

PersianPaladin 13.2c

Osmposm 13.2c

JohnAcc 13.2c

Village plank 13.3c

Paul Sherman 13.3c

Pudsey 13.3c

WBSH 13.3c

Suffolkboy 13.3c

Shuggee 13.3c

Mark H 13.4c

Joneseye 13.4c

Supacell 13.5c

Intrepid 13.5c

Great Plum 13.6c

Reef 13.6c

Parmenides3 13.7c

Don 13.7c

Calrissian 13.8c

Tamara G 13.9c

Stephen prudence 13.9c

Snow –Man2006 13.9c

High pressure 14.0c

Ukmoose 14.0c

Mk 13 14.0c

The Pit 14.0c

Grey Wolf 14.0c

Cymru 14.0c

Stratos Ferric 14.1c

West is best 14.2c

Vince 14.5c

Rollo 14.6c

Gavin p 14.7c

Paul Carfoot 14.8c

Skifreak 15.0c

Jimmyay 15.5c

Paul 15.5c

Craig Evans 15.5c

Summer of 95 16.0c

Morning all!

This was the latest list I could find on this thread and thought it would be a good time to remind people of what their predictions were... Interesting how the latest model outputs show very little sign of a heatwave at the end of the month, so it looks like many will have punted too high..

The latest from http://www.climate-uk.com/ :

CET: (May 1-18): 12.1°C (+1.5 degC)

E&W Rain: (May 1-18): 77/0mm (216 per cent)

E&W Sun: (May 1-18): 90.5hr ( 74 per cent)

Ian

[snowray]

Maybe not a heatwave as such but things still look like they are going to gradually warm up after a couple of chilly days and nights so that figure is bound to rise, its the night time temps that could realy make a difference but they have generally been on the high side again this month. I would say that somewhere from Mr Data to Snowmaiden is in the money.

Edited May 19, 2007 by snowray

[Mark Bayley]

Hows my 13.0c prediction looking

[eddie]

Hows my 13.0c prediction looking

We would need a daily average temperature of around 14.4C for the rest of the month to get to 13C and that seems fairly unlikely to me.

Looking at the GFS I reckon it's going to come in somewhere around 12.6C.

[johnholmes]

Hows my 13.0c prediction looking

see above!

[Mark Bayley]

Oh well it would be the closest i had got so far :lol: . Apart from which the lower the C.E.T the better. I am getting fed up with these way above average months

Edited May 19, 2007 by mark bayley

[Stu_London]

I don't honestly see it being much different to where we are now to be honest.

We are due a few days of cooler days and nights which may knock it back slightly to maybe 11.8C

In the absense of a proper heatwave in the last week of May (which GFS seems to have backed away from) then even if it was a bit warmer than now the average would only creep up very slowly.

Remember the last few days of April which were very warm against the average - confident predictions of around 11.5 were made, however it only crept up painfully slowly.

[summer blizzard]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Strong ensemble support for the rest of the month.

With no real low minima, it looks like the CET will rise to around 12.5C-12.8C, though it will drop back in the last few days of the month to around 12.1C-12.3C, so i would back an outcome within 0.5C-1C of average.

[ribster]

Well it's clearly going to be above average, but on the plus side for me we have had considerably above average rainfall, Will be interesting to see the final stats.

[Stratos Ferric]

The mid-month projection: as expected, Monday's view was a bit of a outlier. For what it's worth I suspect that this one will be a tad on the low side.

Something in the range 12.8-13.3 would be my guess at present.

[Optimus Prime]

Well my prediction of 12.6c looks brilliant at the moment after my dreadful April. As high as 13.4c and as low as 12.4c looks possible at this stage.

[Stratos Ferric]

Well my prediction of 12.6c looks brilliant at the moment after my dreadful April. As high as 13.4c and as low as 12.4c looks possible at this stage.

Certainly shouldn't be far out OP, though my hunch is a tad higher than that. A lot of people in the middle of the pack which much interest at this stage.

[Terminal Moraine]

Although my prediction that May would see a spell of weather which was a reversal of that in April was correct, in that it has been wet and unsettled, it seems nigh on impossible for it to be genuinely cold. Almost every day here has been at least a little warmer than the long term average.

My future stabs in the dark when predicting the CET will have to be altered in an upwards stylee to reflect this.

T.M

[VillagePlank]

Yes, my rather gross AGW fiddle factor (this month about 0.5C) looks like it is going to make my prediction of 13.3C too high, now. Bugger.