May CET

[Stu_London]

Latest Manley figs to the 19th (thanks to www.climate-uk.com) show 12.1C to the 19th.

Where it goes in the last 12 days could be quite varied depending on which ensemble member you beleive.

Things do look like warming up aloft from the 21st to the 25th but this also corresponds with a dry spell which may see lower minima than of late helping to offset the maximums.

From the 25th a cooldown is likely with most of the period (based on 00z GFS ensembles) slightly below the long term mean - however this also corresponds with less settled conditions. If the weather activitiy is largely frontal then expect the CET to rise slightly. If it is more of a showery nature then a slight drop could be expected as skies tend to clear during the hours of darkness.

I could do a graph like SF but can't be bothered, however the ranges I see by assorted dates from now to the end of the month and my personal hunches for each date are as follows: -

21st - 11.9 to 12.1 (prediction 12.0)

24th - 12.0 to 12.5 (prediction 12.2)

27th - 12.2 to 13.0 (prediction 12.5)

29th - 12.0 to 13.2 (prediction 12.4)

31st - 11.9 to 13.5 (prediction 12.4)

[Stratos Ferric]

Yes, my rather gross AGW fiddle factor (this month about 0.5C) looks like it is going to make my prediction of 13.3C too high, now. Bugger.

I think you'll be closer than you think. There's still a small chance that you'll be a fraction low.

[Joneseye]

Latest from http://www.climate-uk.com

CET: (May 1-20): 12.1°C (+1.4 degC)

E&W Rain: (May 1-20): 78.1mm (198 per cent)

E&W Sun: (May 1-20): 108.9hr ( 85 per cent)

Interesting that the NW Tracker is lower than Manley at 11.95°C (difference from average May CET is 0.65°C).

[The PIT]

Latest from http://www.climate-uk.com

CET: (May 1-20): 12.1°C (+1.4 degC)

E&W Rain: (May 1-20): 78.1mm (198 per cent)

E&W Sun: (May 1-20): 108.9hr ( 85 per cent)

Interesting that the NW Tracker is lower than Manley at 11.95°C (difference from average May CET is 0.65°C).

Phil is using the average to date hence the the large differance between NW and Climate UK. (1.4C and 0.65C) Just in case anyone wonders.

A warm week coming up followed by another cool down. 12c - 12.5C is looking best bet at the moment.

[Snowly does it]

Phil is using the average to date hence the the large differance between NW and Climate UK. (1.4C and 0.65C) Just in case anyone wonders.

A warm week coming up followed by another cool down. 12c - 12.5C is looking best bet at the moment.

Yes, I'd agree (upper end of that estimate for me)

Here are the requirements for the run in

to end up on.......

15 - we require 20.3

14 - 17.5

13.5 - 16.1

13 - 14.7

12.5 - 13.3

12 - 11.8

11.3 (average) - 9.8

Edited May 21, 2007 by snowmaiden

[Stratos Ferric]

Phil is using the average to date hence the the large differance between NW and Climate UK. (1.4C and 0.65C) Just in case anyone wonders.

A warm week coming up followed by another cool down. 12c - 12.5C is looking best bet at the moment.

Must say I'd go a tad higher; 12.5-13. It clearly depends on next week which is model mess at present.

[johnholmes]

currently at 12.7C, 1.4C above the long term average here.

[The PIT]

Interesting this month hasn't had any really high temps yet. Been mainly mid teans here. 19.5C at the beginning of the month which is the highest. We're averaging 11.5C so far.

[ukmoose]

Interesting this month hasn't had any really high temps yet. Been mainly mid teans here. 19.5C at the beginning of the month which is the highest. We're averaging 11.5C so far.

It is indeed interesting that even without any high temperatures of note so far this month, the CET remains stubbornly above the long term average. We get fewer and fewer 'cold' days it seems whatever the season might be.

If you asked the average person on the street, they'd probably say this May has been cold (which it certainly hasn't been) and wet which I'm not sure about compared to the average but would certainly seem wet due to the arid April. It's becoming quite difficult to remember what an 'average' month temperature wise for any part of the year actually feels like. As for a 'cold' month ...

Moose

[Stu_London]

It is indeed interesting that even without any high temperatures of note so far this month, the CET remains stubbornly above the long term average. We get fewer and fewer 'cold' days it seems whatever the season might be.

If you asked the average person on the street, they'd probably say this May has been cold (which it certainly hasn't been) and wet which I'm not sure about compared to the average but would certainly seem wet due to the arid April. It's becoming quite difficult to remember what an 'average' month temperature wise for any part of the year actually feels like. As for a 'cold' month ...

Moose

Has been a very wet month to date (198% of average) which would definately alter perceptions especially as all of the rain has come after 6th May

Daytime temps have been just above the 71-00 mean (+0.7C)

Nightime temps warmer (+2.0C) consistent with cloud cover at night.

Thanks to climate.uk.com for all data

Sypnotics have been the driver again with no northerly from a cold source

[ukmoose]

Has been a very wet month to date (198% of average) which would definately alter perceptions especially as all of the rain has come after 6th May

Daytime temps have been just above the 71-00 mean (+0.7C)

Nightime temps warmer (+2.0C) consistent with cloud cover at night.

Thanks to climate.uk.com for all data

Sypnotics have been the driver again with no northerly from a cold source

Thanks for that Stu. More rain than I realised.

Interesting that night time temperatures have been so high. is it all due to cloud cover though or the source of the air? I know this has been mentioned before but night time temperatures seem to be getting higher and higher although sunshine records keep tumbling aswell. There seems to be something of a paradox there.

Moose

[Stu_London]

Interesting that night time temperatures have been so high. is it all due to cloud cover though or the source of the air? I know this has been mentioned before but night time temperatures seem to be getting higher and higher although sunshine records keep tumbling aswell. There seems to be something of a paradox there.

Moose

Probably a bit of both this month - however in recent history I would suggest the source of the air to be the overriding driver as this has also influence the daytime maximas

[Kentish Man]

Statistics obviously mask our perception of the weather. Given that the average daily max for the period May 1 - 20 is almost 2C less than that recorded in April (despite the warm start to May) and sunshine has been less than average with well above average rainfall, it is not surprising people are viewing May as a cool, dull and wet month. It is only night time temps that have kept the CET significantly above the 1971 - 2000 average and it has to be said most people do not notice high night time minima in the same way as they'd notice a relatively cool day.

[Thundery wintry showers]

It is indeed interesting that even without any high temperatures of note so far this month, the CET remains stubbornly above the long term average. We get fewer and fewer 'cold' days it seems whatever the season might be.

If you asked the average person on the street, they'd probably say this May has been cold (which it certainly hasn't been) and wet which I'm not sure about compared to the average but would certainly seem wet due to the arid April. It's becoming quite difficult to remember what an 'average' month temperature wise for any part of the year actually feels like. As for a 'cold' month ...

Moose

The last time we had a cold month was in March 2006, when the masses were out in earnest wishing for the cold March to be followed by a compensatory step-change to maxima of 20-25C for the remainder of the spring. 1-23 March was some 3C down on the 1971-2000 average, and therefore over 2C below even the 1961-90 average.

April and August 2006 were average, and again there were many complaints about cold weather (especially during April in view of the wintry weather in the first week, following the cold March, though August in many areas had less sunshine than April last year)

[summer blizzard]

A CET between 12.1C and 12.5C look most plauasable to me.

[Stu_London]

I could do a graph like SF but can't be bothered, however the ranges I see by assorted dates from now to the end of the month and my personal hunches for each date are as follows: -

21st - 11.9 to 12.1 (prediction 12.0)

24th - 12.0 to 12.5 (prediction 12.2)

27th - 12.2 to 13.0 (prediction 12.5)

29th - 12.0 to 13.2 (prediction 12.4)

31st - 11.9 to 13.5 (prediction 12.4)

1st - 21st - 12.0C - spot on so far, although I think the 24th will be nearer the top of the range.

Still some very cool temps progged around the BH weekend - GFS saying no more than 11C for the CET zone for maximas.

I am just glad that I am off to Cyprus for the weekend.

[Joneseye]

Latest from http://www.climate-uk.com shows that the CET dropped yesterday by 0.1C:

CET: (May 1-21): 12.0°C (+1.2 degC)

E&W Rain: (May 1-21): 78.7mm (189 per cent)

E&W Sun: (May 1-21): 113.5hr ( 84 per cent)

[Optimus Prime]

According to the latest GFS run the period 23rd-31st will have an average temperature off 11.1c which is 1.4c below average for the second half.

So that means by the end of this month the CET would be around 11.8c. 0.4c above average and not the 2c above mentioned a while ago.

[Scorcher]

It looks like it will end up only marginally above average now. There seems to be a pattern emerging, with unremarkable months that are only slightly above average interspersed with exceptionally above average months.

[Snowly does it]

It looks like it will end up only marginally above average now. There seems to be a pattern emerging, with unremarkable months that are only slightly above average interspersed with exceptionally above average months.

Yes, I agree. The pattern seems to be either around the ten year average (March for example and February, May would be 12.1 on the last 10 years) or massively over as you say.

Its a waiting game for a month below its ten year average - may be quite a wait as well!

[summer blizzard]

Actually, assuming May to be within 1C of average, that would make two out of the past three months that have been within 1C of average, the first since August 2006, while not proof yet, it could be a sign of the amplified warming slowing.

[shuggee]

I think reaching such hasty conclusions after the ridiculously hot April is a bit premature SB.

[Nick H]

Actually, assuming May to be within 1C of average, that would make two out of the past three months that have been within 1C of average, the first since August 2006, while not proof yet, it could be a sign of the amplified warming slowing.

Sorry, but that's a ludicrous statement.

[Weather-history]

So that means by the end of this month the CET would be around 11.8c. 0.4c above average and not the 2c above mentioned a while ago.

A May CET within a degree of the April CET figure is not that frequent.

Since WWII: 1946, 1955, 1961, 1987 and 1996.

In 1987, May had a CET lower than the April

[The PIT]

Well it should rise for the next few days before the cool weekend reverses the trend. Thats if the predicted temps for thsi weekend are as bad as shown which is unlikely.