May CET

[Steady Easterly]

Btw....up where I live; Teesside Airport has a very notable affect on temps in winter and summer. And no, its not a big airport.

Any facts or figures to back Any of that up?

[Stratos Ferric]

Well the RAF pumps out as much if not more carbon emissions in Scotland than all commercial flights in/to Scotland put together!

Just goes to show how few people go there. How Mondy thinks you'd ever exist outside the union is beyond me.

Joshing aside, I didn't know that there were any significant fixed wing bases up there, so I do find that stat surprising.

Btw....up where I live; Teesside Airport has a very notable affect on temps in winter and summer. And no, its not a big airport.

Any facts or figures to back Any of that up?

Er, in words of two letters...

[PersianPaladin]

Btw....up where I live; Teesside Airport has a very notable affect on temps in winter and summer. And no, its not a big airport.

Any facts or figures to back Any of that up?

Sadly no. But it is something I and other have noticed over the last couple of years.

[Stratos Ferric]

Sadly no. But it is something I and other have noticed over the last couple of years.

That's robust then. PP - don't you suspect that were there anything anomalous or biased in readings from airports and RAF bases that the UKMO would long since have consigned them to the bin? Or is this yet another conspiracy?

[Calrissian]

Yes, its all a conspiracy, the CET numbers were recently all fabricated, not least of which the April record breaking one.

I for one blame Saint Blair, but thank the Gods he is going to resign today.

Calrissian: ready to take over.

---

meanwhile, back in the real world...another 'fair day' here, and doubtless the CET up to May 9'th will be pretty good around the 12c mark, that is plenty high enough to allow for 13, even 14 by the end of the month.

For the doubters, I direct you to the posts in the April CET thread

[Stratos Ferric]

Looking at Philip's plots, yesterday was the first day since March 24th on which both the composite max and min came in below the straight line mean for the time of the month.

[gmoran]

The denialists will pick on anything to denounce climate change.

By using the term denialist, you are using an emotive term which will of course cloud the issue, but you are also setting up a very unscientific premise: which is that the truth and significance of AGW is beyond question.

GW is an observed phenomena. AGW is a proposed factor in that phenomena which has substantive scientific evidence. There is of course an argument around how significant AGW is, with an extreme view being that it isn't significant. This variation is healthy as long as it is not un-reasoned. As an example, there is a renewed interest in indirect effects of the sun as a climate forcing agent; while these do not yet seriously challenge the accepted CO2 consensus (and probably never will) it doesn't mean they are not useful and legitimate areas of scientific interest. AGW should not be used as a witch hunt. There are some very respected scientists who have raised legitimate concerns about some claims for AGW e.g. Chris Landsea resigning from the IPCC panel and then being labeled a denialist.

Bottom line, I don't like the term denialist; it's a "you are either with us or against us" POV, that will probably end up being counter productive.

[Optimus Prime]

According to the latest GFS run the period 10th-15th will have an average temperature off 9.8c due to cold night at the end of this period.

so the CET by the 15th should be around 11.2c. around 1c above for the first half of May.

[Kentish Man]

Philip Eden today shows the May CET easing back a tad to 12.0C (May 1-10).

[The PIT]

Perhaps a halt to silly warm months coming up. Time will tell if it turns more settled it move up but I think my punt of 14C is now over the top.

[damianslaw]

Looking at the latest CET values for the month, it definately shows the bias to using stations in central Britain as i think here in the north east and probably scotland the CET is probably running at about average or just a bit above, not the 2 degrees for central britain.

I think we are likely to see it being reduced in the next week, lets hope we can get it nearer to the normal just to build my confidence that we can still get 'average' months even after record warm months.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

More wet and cool conditions ahead as predicted. Month will probably still come in above but am happy with my punt but will keep a keen eye on my original of exactly average. Obviously beyond T96 to T120 enters into FI but don't bother looking for settled very warm weather for somtime yet and at earliest last week of May IMO!!!

BFTP

[The PIT]

Looking at the latest CET values for the month, it definately shows the bias to using stations in central Britain as i think here in the north east and probably scotland the CET is probably running at about average or just a bit above, not the 2 degrees for central britain.

I think we are likely to see it being reduced in the next week, lets hope we can get it nearer to the normal just to build my confidence that we can still get 'average' months even after record warm months.

Ermmm thats why it's called CET Central England etc. There are averages for Scotland and Northern Ireland but I don't know of any links to them. Perhaps Net Weather could do a rough guide on one of the pages.

If the month finnished now it would be an average month temp wise for me in Sheffield so I would guess we're at this present time about 1c above the average for this time of year.

[PersianPaladin]

Ermmm thats why it's called CET Central England etc. There are averages for Scotland and Northern Ireland but I don't know of any links to them. Perhaps Net Weather could do a rough guide on one of the pages.

If the month finnished now it would be an average month temp wise for me in Sheffield so I would guess we're at this present time about 1c above the average for this time of year.

LOL.

I can feel Stratos jumping up with his hair standing up on end.

[johnholmes]

I have only just come across the fairly recent comment about RAF airfields and also that about EGNV-Teeside.

This is what I posted in reply to the post by SF

At Finningley, as at all official Met sites there was an area called the Met enclosure which housed said mentioned Stevenson screen, concrete and grass thermometers, the bare patch, two rainguages, and an area of short cut grass. I forget the exact dimensions, but probably about 20ftX20ft, possibly a bit more.

This was the same at any Met enclosure, wherever it was in the UK, and where possible overseas also.

What did happen, as we discovered many many years ago at Manchester Airport was that more and more concrete surrounded this 'oasis' of countryside and just how representative was the site of rural areas?

The answer was, probably not too bad but not too good but the best which could be provided given the constraints which were placed by airport authorities.

Hope that helps and I'll now go and look at the CET post.

additionally to the various comments about how RAF temps are 'skewed'.

I am quite sure they are not. can I provide the evidence on here and I have to say no but write to the Met O and ask if they will release the fairly large number of checks done over quite a number of years trying to show that there was some increase in temperatures when an RAF station was flying compared to it when it was not. Tests re weekends with no flying v week days over years to cover differing temperature regimes were done and none showed any skew.

We did similar a trial at Manchester airport where a 'domestic' departure pier developed only yards(shows my age) from our enclosure and was thought to possibly affect temperatures, we were looking for temperature take off data, and also the min and max temps. None of these worries were confirmed, quite the opposite, no variation was discovered. Even standing by when an aircraft taxied past(before the days of distant reading thermometers, so quite painful to ones earsand also before the wearing of ear defenders was practiced) only the most brief and marginal increase was noted.

A good deal of effort is taken on airfields, even now with no official Met O presence at almost all civil airfields, on positioning or re positioning the 'enclosure' such that it lies parallel to runways or taxi tracks to avoid the possibility of erroneous temperature readings as jets turn with their exhausts pointing at an enclosure.

Hope that answers the queries.

There is unlikely to be any data to support the idea that Teeside is/has increased, however slightly the temperature in the vicinity of the airport.

One comment SF made about RAF airfields not being as busy as Heathrow.

This is not really true, many RAF training airfields have more take offsand landings than almost any civil airport except Heathrow. Back in 1994 at RAF Finningley over a period of 2-3 months we had more aircraft movements than Heathrow!

John

Edited May 11, 2007 by johnholmes

[Stratos Ferric]

One comment SF made about RAF airfields not being as busy as Heathrow.

This is not really true, many RAF training airfields have more take offsand landings than almost any civil airport except Heathrow. Back in 1994 at RAF Finningley over a period of 2-3 months we had more aircraft movements than Heathrow!

John

I have to concede that point John. I worked at Wyton for a few months and the desk bound RAF boys around me used to watch longingly as the cadet pilots practiced repeated touch down - take offs, figure-of-eighting around the skies above. I've also watched Tornados (I assume) doing the same thing years ago at Dishforth on a dark evening like a swarm of metal fireflies. That said, I've also watched 737s doing in at Castle Donnington; at first I thought there must be an emergency but apparently pilots do it there quite frequently.

[Weather-history]

As with last year, the interest may turn away from the CET and towards how wet this May turns out. It has happened only once before of two consecutive Mays with a rainfall average of 100mm+ (1796, 1797). We'll have to see what happens.

Edited May 12, 2007 by Mr_Data

[snowray]

It seems that mild settled Aprils are often followed by cooler more unsettled Mays...Record breaking warmth and virtually zero PPN followed by possibly below ave temps and record breaking rainfall, quite a contrast.

I still get the feeling that things will warm up towards the End of May with the azores high moving in, although the 06z is showing a further cool down at the very end of the run which would be interesing for those of us that have gone for a lower CET.

[johnholmes]

I have to concede that point John. I worked at Wyton for a few months and the desk bound RAF boys around me used to watch longingly as the cadet pilots practiced repeated touch down - take offs, figure-of-eighting around the skies above. I've also watched Tornados (I assume) doing the same thing years ago at Dishforth on a dark evening like a swarm of metal fireflies. That said, I've also watched 737s doing in at Castle Donnington; at first I thought there must be an emergency but apparently pilots do it there quite frequently.

yep they all have to practice, civil or military.

[Stu_London]

Ermmm thats why it's called CET Central England etc. There are averages for Scotland and Northern Ireland but I don't know of any links to them. Perhaps Net Weather could do a rough guide on one of the pages.

If the month finnished now it would be an average month temp wise for me in Sheffield so I would guess we're at this present time about 1c above the average for this time of year.

If you look at Philip Eden's statistics for the 1st - 10th of May then you will note that there are regional splits. These seem to suggest that to the north and east of the CET zone things were slightly less above average in this period, though still above average nonetheless.

Although the sypnotics of May so far have not been spectacularly warm it should be remembered that we had residual heat from the end of April to clear - firstly in the atmosphere, which took around 3-4days and latterly in residually high SSTs around our shores which have been modifying our temperatures.

I am sure that had April ended "average", we would have been about average for May now.

Looking forward and taking the ensembles at face value, there would appear to be little scope of any very warm or hot weather in the foreseeable future, however no sharp drop in the CET is likely either as there appears to be lots of rainfall on the agenda, which probably means wind and cloud meaning we lose the ability to record any very low minima.

Edited May 12, 2007 by Stu_London

[The PIT]

If you look at Philip Eden's statistics for the 1st - 10th of May then you will note that there are regional splits. These seem to suggest that to the north and east of the CET zone things were slightly less above average in this period, though still above average nonetheless.

There will always be regional splits thats the way it is. CET could 4C above normal but it doesn't mean the Sheffield area will be.

[summer blizzard]

Phillip Eden has the current CET as 12C, and it does'nt look like changing much for a while, though there are hints of the Azores High ridging towards the end of next week, which may rase it slighty, aftwerwards, we could have ten days of unusual warm or cold conditions, so a CET of anywhere between 11C and 13C seems possible to me.

[Snowly does it]

12.1 is a key figure this month. It marks the 10 year average, no month since last August has come in uner the 10 year rolling average adn as such, May looks a candidate. Would mark a temporary halt in the incessant warmth and would be nice 'for a change' if nothing else! Under the 30 year average is possible but a very long shot now as we are ahead of the game and set to move into the warmer part of the month. I think 12 marks the likely lower limit and probably around 13.5 the upper. Anyhting more than that will require an exceptional spell of warmth to set in given the cooler start to the week, stranger things have happened though!

[Weather-history]

As with last year, the interest may turn away from the CET and towards how wet this May turns out. It has happened only once before of two consecutive Mays with a rainfall average of 100mm+ (1796, 1797). We'll have to see what happens.

The wettest May day for England and Wales since 1931 was the 21st of May 1932 with 19.7mm

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/slp/1...slp19320521.gif

[North-Easterly Blast]

Kevin B (Mr Data);

Would it be possible to list the years where Mays had a cooler second half compared to the first half? You did this for March and April. For a start, last May had a cooler second half than the first and so did May 2000.

Another point of question of mine now is with all this rain we are having now and the fact that last May was very wet has May now joined the "wetter trend" bandwagon like October has done over recent years. There has only been one instance of two consecutive Mays recording 100mm or greater of rain, and if this May does record over 100mm, then it goes to show May is showing a wetter trend like October is.