May CET

[Snowly does it]

It's not deliberate SM, don't panic! No-one would want to miss you out! When you put these charts together it's really quite fiddly and despite constant checking, easy to miss one or two or make the odd mistake! It'll be rectified soon.

Regards,

Moose

I know Moose, I was just having a moment

[Mark Bayley]

Mark, you've left me out again, 13.1

I'm starting to feel shunned here

P.S this is not a late entry, I entered this a way back in the thread

Sorry, when i did the lists last time i saved them onto my computer so it was easy for me to update them. What i didn't do is when i had missed yours and put it on the list i did not save it. When i did it yesterday i didn't know your name was not on the list becouse i thought i had saved it. I wasn't purposly tring to miss you out :blink:

Snowray 11c

Summer blizzard 11.3c

Eddie 11.5c

The underwriter 11.5c

Terminal Moraine 11.5c

Benq 11.8c

Anti-Mild 11.9c

Stu London 11.9c

Fish dude 12c

Phil n. Warks 12.1c

Kold weather 12.1c

Kentish man 12.2c

James m 12.3c

Windswept 12.3c

The calm before the storm 12.3c

Blast from the past 12.4c

Mr data 12.5c

Cheeky monkey 12.3c

Duncan McAlister 12.3c

Somerset squall 12.5c

Bottesford 12.5c

Optimus prime 12.6c

Sub Zero 12.6c

Sundog 12.7c

Steve B 12.8c

Roger J Smith 12.8c

Thundery wintry showers 12.8c

Acbrixton 12.8c

Snowfluff 12.9c

Snowyoul9 12.9c

Slipknotsam 12.9c

Mark Bayley 13.0c

Glacier point 13.0c

The penguin 13.0c

Stargazer 13.1c

Johnholmes 13.1c

Snowmaiden 13.1c

DAVID SNOW 13.2c

Jackone 13.2c

Magpie 13.2c

PersianPaladin 13.2c

Osmposm 13.2c

Village plank 13.3c

Paul Sherman 13.3c

Pudsey 13.3c

WBSH 13.3c

Suffolkboy 13.3c

Shuggee 13.3c

Mark H 13.4c

Joneseye 13.4c

Supacell 13.5c

Intrepid 13.5c

Great Plum 13.6c

Reef 13.6c

Parmenides3 13.7c

Don 13.7c

Calrissian 13.8c

Tamara G 13.9c

Stephen prudence 13.9c

Snow_Man2006 13.9c

High pressure 14.0c

Ukmoose 14.0c

Mk 13 14.0c

The Pit 14.0c

Grey Wolf 14.0c

Cymru 14.0c

Stratos Ferric 14.1c

West is best 14.2c

Vince 14.5c

Rollo 14.6c

Gavin p 14.7c

Paul Carfoot 14.8c

Skifreak 15.0c

Jimmyay 15.5c

Paul 15.5c

Craig Evans 15.5c

Summer of 95 16.0c

Edited May 2, 2007 by mark bayley

[JohnAcc]

Sorry, when i did the lists last time i saved them onto my computer so it was easy for me to update them. What i didn't do is when i had missed yours and put it on the list i did not save it. When i did it yesterday i didn't know your name was not on the list becouse i thought i had saved it. I wasn't purposly tring to miss you out :blink:

Hi There,

You've also missed my punt of 13.2 posted a couple of pages back.

Rgds, John

[Mark Bayley]

Hopefully i have now got everyones C.E.T predictions in this list. B)

Snowray 11c

Summer blizzard 11.3c

Eddie 11.5c

The underwriter 11.5c

Terminal Moraine 11.5c

Benq 11.8c

Anti-Mild 11.9c

Stu London 11.9c

Fish dude 12c

Phil n. Warks 12.1c

Kold weather 12.1c

Kentish man 12.2c

James m 12.3c

Windswept 12.3c

The calm before the storm 12.3c

Duncan McAlister 12.3c

Cheeky monkey 12.3c

Blast from the past 12.4c

Mr data 12.5c

Somerset squall 12.5c

Bottesford 12.5c

Optimus prime 12.6c

Sub Zero 12.6c

Sundog 12.7c

Steve B 12.8c

Roger J Smith 12.8c

Thundery wintry showers 12.8c

Acbrixton 12.8c

Snowfluff 12.9c

Snowyoul9 12.9c

Slipknotsam 12.9c

Mark Bayley 13.0c

Glacier point 13.0c

The penguin 13.0c

Stargazer 13.1c

Johnholmes 13.1c

Snowmaiden 13.1c

DAVID SNOW 13.2c

Jackone 13.2c

Magpie 13.2c

PersianPaladin 13.2c

Osmposm 13.2c

JohnAcc 13.2c

Village plank 13.3c

Paul Sherman 13.3c

Pudsey 13.3c

WBSH 13.3c

Suffolkboy 13.3c

Shuggee 13.3c

Mark H 13.4c

Joneseye 13.4c

Supacell 13.5c

Intrepid 13.5c

Great Plum 13.6c

Reef 13.6c

Parmenides3 13.7c

Don 13.7c

Calrissian 13.8c

Tamara G 13.9c

Stephen prudence 13.9c

Snow –Man2006 13.9c

High pressure 14.0c

Ukmoose 14.0c

Mk 13 14.0c

The Pit 14.0c

Grey Wolf 14.0c

Cymru 14.0c

Stratos Ferric 14.1c

West is best 14.2c

Vince 14.5c

Rollo 14.6c

Gavin p 14.7c

Paul Carfoot 14.8c

Skifreak 15.0c

Jimmyay 15.5c

Paul 15.5c

Craig Evans 15.5c

Summer of 95 16.0c

Edited May 2, 2007 by mark bayley

[Bottesford]

Minor thing - these just need reordering if you're keeping a list somewhere...

Blast from the past 12.4c

Mr data 12.5c

Cheeky monkey 12.3c *

Duncan McAlister 12.3c *

Somerset squall 12.5c

[Joneseye]

Good Morning!

No updates from Manley as yet..

The current N-W UK tracker figure for May 2007 is: 11.84°C

(difference from average May CET is 0.54°C)

[The PIT]

Out of interest as a team how well are we doing for CET.

[snowray]

I thought sub zero was on 10.6c, take it I'm now the lowest on 11c? Are people changing their original figure then.

Edited May 4, 2007 by snowray

[snowray]

And Summer Blizzard was on 10.8?

[Roger J Smith]

This could get really interesting if the current model runs are right, by the 20th of May we could be looking at 8 or 9 C so it will take a massive warmup to get most of the field into the game.

There are even hints of wintry mixed precip at times in the time frame starting next Thursday.

Calrissian: hoping the GFS is doing its usual walkabout

[PersianPaladin]

I thought sub zero was on 10.6c, take it I'm now the lowest on 11c? Are people changing their original figure then.

People who keep changing their predictions are most likely not making educated guesses. Its more on a whim with most people. I say stick to yer guns and make your prediction just before the month begins. Look at the previous records, check the teleconnection trends and ensembles and then make your stab.

Edited May 4, 2007 by PersianPaladin

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

This could get really interesting if the current model runs are right, by the 20th of May we could be looking at 8 or 9 C so it will take a massive warmup to get most of the field into the game.

There are even hints of wintry mixed precip at times in the time frame starting next Thursday.

Calrissian: hoping the GFS is doing its usual walkabout

Hi Roger

Looking good overall. I adjusted my CET up due to warmer first week than expected which we are getting but the much cooler conditions 2nd week onwards looks spot. I think my anticipated warm last week will show its head but I must admit will it be warm enough....maybe not. Folks I've got to also add that this summer will not come close to last year for heat IMO....this May could be hinting something at us...we'll see [la nina?]

BFTP

Edited May 4, 2007 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Anti-Mild]

I don't know if this question has already been asked so if it has, sorry.

Has there ever been an occasion where May was cooler than April, and if so, when was the last time and how often has it happened?

[Snowly does it]

I don't know if this question has already been asked so if it has, sorry.

Has there ever been an occasion where May was cooler than April, and if so, when was the last time and how often has it happened?

It Happened in 1987 (10.1 vs 10.3 in April) and before that in 1869

Its rare

[Stratos Ferric]

This could get really interesting if the current model runs are right, by the 20th of May we could be looking at 8 or 9 C so it will take a massive warmup to get most of the field into the game.

There are even hints of wintry mixed precip at times in the time frame starting next Thursday.

Calrissian: hoping the GFS is doing its usual walkabout

Can I just say that the above comment sets a new record for the latest ramp of the winter.

RAMP level 2.

[Calrissian]

Indeed, there a lot of hysteria about this touted late burst of 'cold', never mind mere cooler temps.

11, 12, 13c CET for May, makes little difference to me. We're already had 4 straight weeks of warm, even if May is a let down, we're still doing very well.

Calrissian: does not steal others tag lines.

[Guest Mike W]

Just to add what snowmaiden listed, it did happen in 1894 aswell, April: 9.7, May: 9.2. And 1821, April: 9.5, May: 9.4. 1814: April: 9.6, May: 9.2. 1755: April: 10.0, May: 9.4.

Edited May 4, 2007 by Mike W

[Nick H]

Well believe it or not the first 4 days of May have been almost 2C above the norm according to the Manley measure.

[damianslaw]

Here in Tyne and Wear it has been a rather cool start to May thanks to low cloud spilling in off the North Sea and even the nights haven't been that mild. The projected forecast for the next week isn't going to help increase the CET, and therefore we could by the middle of the month be looking at a below average CET recording, wow that would be unusual in this endless period of above average CET recordings.

It will not be clear until at least this time next week whether here in Tyne and Wear we could be looking at a below average CET recording for the month. I am watching possible pressure building over the atlantic in latter part of next week, if this becomes a mid atlantic ridge then we could indeed be looking at a below average month interesting times...

[Stratos Ferric]

Well believe it or not the first 4 days of May have been almost 2C above the norm according to the Manley measure.

We started very warm. Like I keep saying, we had become accustomed to this excessive warmth without realising just how warm in relative terms it was. Even with a cool down we're still above average.

[Calrissian]

EXactly, all the loony toon hysteria over the supposed cooling, and yet its still mild. Its only early May, and yet the cold-doomsters were almost freaking out that we might even get a below average month.

After more than 15 increasingly warm years, I do find it particularly disapointing to see how there is a resilient group who refuse to see the Jump that recently occured.

*I'm still awaiting for the nice graph here: http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/ to be updated. April will be a clear marker, the first of many.

May - as I noted, won't be as stunning as April, but it'll be still be above even the 1990-2006 average.

Calrissian: time for....Battlefield 2142.

[Snowly does it]

May is 4 days old and therefore any figures are irrelevant, its not a data sample worth talking about, estimate and guesstimates have been laid and we'll see where it goes.

Certainly looks a month that might bumble along the long term average for a while, might be well above again, we'll see.

[Stratos Ferric]

May is 4 days old and therefore any figures are irrelevant, its not a data sample worth talking about, estimate and guesstimates have been laid and we'll see where it goes.

Certainly looks a month that might bumble along the long term average for a while, might be well above again, we'll see.

I think average will be the coldest possible outcome. For a month to come in below par there needs to be sustained cool and no warmth. I don't see that in any of the charts going forwards.

[Lettucing Gutted]

This could get really interesting if the current model runs are right, by the 20th of May we could be looking at 8 or 9 C so it will take a massive warmup to get most of the field into the game.

There are even hints of wintry mixed precip at times in the time frame starting next Thursday.

Calrissian: hoping the GFS is doing its usual walkabout

That is only a degree or two warmer than January 2007's C.E.T!

[Roger J Smith]

Since I mentioned this, the GFS outlook has softened (as usual) and there now seems to be little chance that the running CET will dip below 10, probably 10.3 or so, at its lowest point perhaps around the 12th or 13th, then it should slowly recover into the 11 to 12 range. That will still leave a lot of the field hoping for quite a massive warmup in the last week to ten days, as even 12 on the 20th requires something like 18 for that period just to round off the month at 14 C. Not saying it is beyond this year's ability to produce such figures, but my feeling continues to be that this month will look rather average compared to much of 2007.