The Ongoing Warmth in the UK

[Stratos Ferric]

...Those who say that the winters of old are over could well be in for a big shock.

What, when you suddenly agree?

I didn't think Tamara would be able to stay away for long.

Re Shetland and localised cooling. I haven't seen any stats for Shetland specifically, but it is far enough north that it's not altogether unusual for this area to experience rather different conditions, particularly re airmass source, than the rest of the UK. I can't say that in this long warm spell Shetland has bucked the trend; so far as I've noticed N Scotland has generally been warm, if not always so excessively warm as the rest of the country.

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Why lump Shetland in with the rest of Britain when Shetland has a rather different climate to the main Isles, being further north and east, stuck out in the North Sea/Atlantic?

Just going to cause confusion.

Shetland does sound like a nice place for a holiday though.

[Guest Viking141]

Why lump Shetland in with the rest of Britain when Shetland has a rather different climate to the main Isles, being further north and east, stuck out in the North Sea/Atlantic?

Just going to cause confusion.

Shetland does sound like a nice place for a holiday though.

Because Shetland is part of the UK and we are discussing UK climate. We could very well be on the front line of any serious changes to UK climate up here, particularly any slowing or shut down of the NAD.If that were to happen we may very well see the first effects of that up here (I believe we already are BTW which is why I am asking the questions I am asking - to see if my belief has any firm basis in observed fact).

You are absolutely right about one thing, it is a lovely place to visit!

[Stratos Ferric]

Because Shetland is part of the UK and we are discussing UK climate. We could very well be on the front line of any serious changes to UK climate up here, particularly any slowing or shut down of the NAD.If that were to happen we may very well see the first effects of that up here (I believe we already are BTW which is why I am asking the questions I am asking - to see if my belief has any firm basis in observed fact).

You are absolutely right about one thing, it is a lovely place to visit!

Conversely, the received wisdom is that you might well be the last place to see any change, particularly as the mean location of the PF drifts poleward. Even last month I vaguely recall the odd day when the northern isles had wintriness whilst the rest of the country was enjoying a "West Indian" summer.

I wouldn't get too excited about NAD shutdown. The rabid desire of some on here to clutch any cold straw going is endlessly amusing, if occasionally rather sad. Of course you may have some evidence of shutdown, but looking at current SST anomalies I think you'd struggle to make a cogent case.

[johnholmes]

Why lump Shetland in with the rest of Britain when Shetland has a rather different climate to the main Isles, being further north and east, stuck out in the North Sea/Atlantic?

Just going to cause confusion.

Shetland does sound like a nice place for a holiday though.

for the same reason as we 'lump', as you describe it, the Western Isles, N Ireland, the Isles of Scilly etc etc, they are as has been explained to you part of this country.

[Stratos Ferric]

for the same reason as we 'lump', as you describe it, the Western Isles, N Ireland, the Isles of Scilly etc etc, they are as has been explained to you part of this country.

John, what's your view on PP's point (probably in the CEt thread) that screens located on airports / RAF stations are likely to have a high skew temperature reading? You used to be based at RAF Robin Hood didn't you?

[John Cox]

Hi SF,

When I suddenlyagree with what?

I'm confused.

What, when you suddenly agree?

[Stratos Ferric]

Hi SF,

When I suddenlyagree with what?

I'm confused.

With AGW...

[smich]

Hi all,

Trying to steer things away from the "whats in the UK and what isn't" tack emerging here, I was amused by the beeb's Tomasz Schaffernaggerwothisname saying that April's 3 degree+ anomaly was a "once in a blue moon" event. According to Hadley, I make it 4 of the last 11 months have recorded such an extraordinary event.

I think we may be one of those countries affected more by warming. Maybe it's the Gulf Stream ,temps, I dunno. I just think that whilst GLOBAL average temps may rise by just a degree or so, that still means that some regions will rise more than others. It's a bleak prospect...

smich

[PersianPaladin]

Hi all,

Trying to steer things away from the "whats in the UK and what isn't" tack emerging here, I was amused by the beeb's Tomasz Schaffernaggerwothisname saying that April's 3 degree+ anomaly was a "once in a blue moon" event. According to Hadley, I make it 4 of the last 11 months have recorded such an extraordinary event.

I think we may be one of those countries affected more by warming. Maybe it's the Gulf Stream ,temps, I dunno. I just think that whilst GLOBAL average temps may rise by just a degree or so, that still means that some regions will rise more than others. It's a bleak prospect...

smich

Hi snich,

I think perhaps he meant that it was an unusual event for April. I'm sure he is aware of the persistent above average anamolies over the past winter.

[smich]

Hi snich,

I think perhaps he meant that it was an unusual event for April. I'm sure he is aware of the persistent above average anamolies over the past winter.

Hi PP

3 degrees above average is unusual, whatever month it is! I think he just forgot to mention how the unusual is becoming usual in this day and age.

smich

[TEITS]

Hi - ok then. I will try !

I don't actually think there is any concrete evidence as such re the polar front - in terms of my post, more a case of observation on my part and a reluctant acceptance that this seems to have happened and is the explanation for the ever dominant south westerly pattern and the fact that the coldest air has stayed increasingly further to our north and east. Why this has happened I don't really know

The position of the polar front is IMO one of the main factors for our mild winters.

My own view is the possible northward shift of the front is largely due to warmer SST's across the Atlantic and the prolonged positive AO phase we have been in since the late 80's. This then results in a succession of LP to our N which is preventing any kind of N blocking to become established thus causing a positive NAO. As we know the NAO is the pressure difference between Iceland/Azores and IMO the cause of such a positive phase that we have been in is largely due to the northward shift of the PFJ and the positive AO.

A rather basic way of seeing this is looking at the archive charts. If we look back at the archives for some of the winters in the 60's we will see plenty of greens/yellows over Greenland/Iceland iindicting HP but if you look at recent winter charts they are full of blues/purples.

I believe for us to see a return to colder winters we need to see two things before Dec. The first one is to lose these warm Septembers because the latent heat is being carried across into our winters. The second is we need to look at what is happening in the stratosphere and what effect this will have on the AO. Unfortunetely the writing was on the wall for last winter because we had a very warm september and the stratosphere cooling appearing in Nov.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

This isn't a comment on any one specific post, but can we please, for the love of god, stop making this thread into something resembling meteorological gang warfare, where one side feels the need to back up anything said by one of their own, and constant justifications for their points of view or the fact that they've even posted because trust me...it's ridiculous.

It's like a playground in here sometimes.

[TEITS]

With AGW...

You remind me of me ex-girlfriend SF.

What I mean by this is she used to go on & on at me until I bowed into submission and agreed with her.

Sorry for being off topic mods but just wanted to bring some light hearted banter into this thread because I feel as though it is needed.

[Stratos Ferric]

You remind me of me ex-girlfriend SF.

What I mean by this is she used to go on & on at me until I bowed into submission and agreed with her.

Sorry for being off topic mods but just wanted to bring some light hearted banter into this thread because I feel as though it is needed.

Phew, thank heavens for that. For a moment I thought you were leading up to "because I've got the hots for you".

PP provides all the light hearted banter we need with his "spot the Stevenson Screen" competition. The Sun ia looking to buy the rights as I type.

[Guest Viking141]

Just as a matter of interest, theres been snow showers in Shetland today.

[noggin]

I am very impressed. You lucky old so and so! Can you spare some for down here?

Is it "normal" to get some snow in Shetland at this time of year?

Edited May 11, 2007 by noggin

[johnholmes]

John, what's your view on PP's point (probably in the CET thread) that screens located on airports / RAF stations are likely to have a high skew temperature reading? You used to be based at RAF Robin Hood didn't you?

Not seen that but will have a look in a mo.

As to airfield temperatures, for instance at RAF Finningley, now Doncaster, Robin Hood International! Can you imagine an aircraft captain calling Mayday and permission for a straight in approach to said airfield? Talking to an EasyJet captain when they operated Doncaster-Geneva for a ski season, he laughed and said we call it Doncaster.

Sorry I digress!

At Finningley, as at all official Met sites there was an area called the Met enclosure which housed said mentioned Stevenson screen, concrete and grass thermometers, the bare patch, two rainguages, and an area of short cut grass. I forget the exact dimensions, but probably about 20ftX20ft, possibly a bit more.

This was the same at any Met enclosure, wherever it was in the UK, and where possible overseas also.

What did happen, as we discovered many many years ago at Manchester Airport was that more and more concrete surrounded this 'oasis' of countryside and just how representative was the site of rural areas?

The answer was, probably not too bad but not too good but the best which could be provided given the constraints which were placed by airport authorities.

Hope that helps and I'll now go and look at the CET post.

As an aside Weather Centre sites were usually on the roof of the building they were housed in and as such, although used for 'official snow days', ie snow falling on Christmas Day, beyond that their climatlogical use was limited.

Edited May 11, 2007 by johnholmes

[Guest Viking141]

I am very impressed. You lucky old so and so! Can you spare some for down here?

Is it "normal" to get some snow in Shetland at this time of year?

In the long-term it is normal to get occasional snow showers in May, in fact Ive even seen snow here in early June. However, in terms of say the last 10 years or so then no its not normal. Im just beginning to wonder if its possible that while the rest of the UK warms, Shetland, because it is so far north is perhaps coming under a more Scandinavian influence. Our winds recently have been predominately from the N/NE rather than the usual SW/W. This is a trend I have noticed over the last few years and has also been noticed by Dave Wheeler at the Fair Isle Met Office.

[Norrance]

In the long-term it is normal to get occasional snow showers in May, in fact Ive even seen snow here in early June. However, in terms of say the last 10 years or so then no its not normal. Im just beginning to wonder if its possible that while the rest of the UK warms, Shetland, because it is so far north is perhaps coming under a more Scandinavian influence. Our winds recently have been predominately from the N/NE rather than the usual SW/W. This is a trend I have noticed over the last few years and has also been noticed by Dave Wheeler at the Fair Isle Met Office.

Though in Spring Shetland and the far North have at times been under the influence of much colder conditions than the rest of the UK I think that last Winter was milder and much more snow free than usual, pretty much the same as the rest of us.

[noggin]

In the long-term it is normal to get occasional snow showers in May, in fact Ive even seen snow here in early June. However, in terms of say the last 10 years or so then no its not normal. Im just beginning to wonder if its possible that while the rest of the UK warms, Shetland, because it is so far north is perhaps coming under a more Scandinavian influence. Our winds recently have been predominately from the N/NE rather than the usual SW/W. This is a trend I have noticed over the last few years and has also been noticed by Dave Wheeler at the Fair Isle Met Office.

This sounds well worth keeping an eye on. Personally I have thought that any general GW has peaked and plateaued. Maybe what you and Mr Wheeler have noticed is the beginning of a cooldown which will gradually extend to cover other areas.

That'd be one for the AGWers to ignore!

BTW....I'd prefer the helicopter back.

[summer blizzard]

In the long-term it is normal to get occasional snow showers in May, in fact Ive even seen snow here in early June. However, in terms of say the last 10 years or so then no its not normal. Im just beginning to wonder if its possible that while the rest of the UK warms, Shetland, because it is so far north is perhaps coming under a more Scandinavian influence. Our winds recently have been predominately from the N/NE rather than the usual SW/W. This is a trend I have noticed over the last few years and has also been noticed by Dave Wheeler at the Fair Isle Met Office.

How has Shetland faired in terms of snow and wind direction and temperature these past two months??