The Ongoing Warmth in the UK

[Lettucing Gutted]

so that even if we stopped producing CO2 now, the climate would still warm for 10-20 years.

I fear that this maybe a very over optimistic scenario. Currently there are no signs of the world making dramatic CO2 cuts. If we don't cut back emissions within 8 years a rapid climate shift will make this planet 11C warmer by the year 2100 AD. The planet have an annual average temperature of 25C. And it will NEVER ever end until the earth's core explodes in 55 million years time...

Edited May 6, 2007 by Craig Evans

[acbrixton]

Like I asked the other day, at what point in future would you accept that the climate is changing "permanently", or do you, like Mondy, just start from a totally entrenched position that man cannot possible impact the climate?

SF I'm fairly certain that in one of the environmental threads Mondy did concede that if global average temperatures increased by 5c in the next 5 years he might admit there was GW...I rather suspect he might have been "joking" though.

Regards

ACB

[kold weather]

And it will NEVER ever end until the earth's core explodes in 55 million years time...

Maybe a thing called Half life makes that idea just a little...negative??

Co2 if i remember rightly has a half life of around 100 years, though I don't know the actual value which suggests we'll have to pump for quite a few million years yet if that very downbeat idea were to be true, saying that with Humans we are greedy so I wouldn't be so suprised...

[Lettucing Gutted]

Making assumptions that the earth will continue to warm up in the future due to GW is not only laughable but is also ignoring many factors of what makes our climate.

CO2 and other greenhouse gases are the strongest drivers of climate.

[Lettucing Gutted]

As I said before the truth is somewhere between. I still think most of the warming is natural with a little bit of man made help.

If the recent warming is natural e.g increased sunspots than the biggest increase in temperatures would be in the tropics rather than the poles on a global basis. On a seasonal basis temperatures would have risen faster in summer instead of winter. On a diurnal basis daytime would have warmed faster than nighttime. This is not the case...

[Stratos Ferric]

I fear that this maybe a very over optimistic scenario. Currently there are no signs of the world making dramatic CO2 cuts. If we don't cut back emissions within 8 years a rapid climate shift will make this planet 11C warmer by the year 2100 AD. The planet have an annual average temperature of 25C. And it will NEVER ever end until the earth's core explodes in 55 million years time...

I certainly wasn't suggesting likelihood either way, though my instinct is that sooner or later there'll need to be something Draconian: my favoured outcome is that some way off, though probably in my lifetime, we have a run of severe events that force a characteristic lurch in behaviour, enforced by Governments. Anyway, that's for another thread. What did make me raise my eyebrows was the 11C warming suggested. Even WIB wouldn't stretch that far! I thought most of the models suggested 2-6C.

[Lettucing Gutted]

What did make me raise my eyebrows was the 11C warming suggested. Even WIB wouldn't stretch that far! I thought most of the models suggested 2-6C.

I few computers from the climatepredication.net forcasted a 11C temperature rise outlier.

[Snowly does it]

I few computers from the climatepredication.net forcasted a 11C temperature rise outlier.

Using an outlier to stress a point is precisely why we have the problems we have re people and governments accepting and dealing. Its like the Express predicting the big freeze every year based on the obligatory cold outliers on the seasonal models.

[johnholmes]

no doubt at least one outlier predicted an overall drop in temperature but that was not what the news channel wanted to headline!

[Calrissian]

The core explodes ? lol 11c rise ? Wow, a CET of around 21c in 2100, that'd make for some toasty winters nights.

---

Like most things, there will never be a definitive answer, but the enlightened ones are already aware its way to late. Stage'3 is here....and the Jump continues.

Calrissian: time for evening tea.

[Costa Del Fal]

I have to say especially after the last year now I am getting tired of all these persistent warm weather patterns and week after week being characterised by the current pattern, and I am just ready for a change to a wider variety of weather with a better variety of weather charts in the model watching.

You people would never cope abroad if you were to live there or long holiday!

Anyway I think May will turn out A warm one again especially to the end of the month.

[Gray-Wolf]

The core explodes ? lol 11c rise ? Wow, a CET of around 21c in 2100, that'd make for some toasty winters nights.

---

Like most things, there will never be a definitive answer, but the enlightened ones are already aware its way to late. Stage'3 is here....and the Jump continues.

Calrissian: time for evening tea.

D'you know, I find it hard to take issue with your posts! It will all be a matter of how long before things 'settle in' to the new temp. regimes (plenty of mixing before then) so the 'cold plunge' is not a thing of the past but a thing of the 'now' as warm air displaces cold at the poles (and ocean currents penetrate deeper into the polar regions). The benchmark of the new regime will be found in the weather deep within a H.P. centre.

Lets see where the next southerly feed H.P. takes us!

Edited May 7, 2007 by Gray-Wolf

[Stratos Ferric]

A more "here and now" observation. In a straight run of "normal" westerlies today, and temperatures in the south are widely 3-4C above the mean for this time of May. Closer to normal elsewhere, and further west. It rather illustrates that in order to get a sub par month we require a run of sustained flow from somewhere between NW and NE, and the corollary to that being that it just isn't happening: the most we get is a day or two at a time, and then only once or twice a month at most. We have to go back to last August for a month with sustained flow from the north, and much of that was returning tropical air.

[PersianPaladin]

A more "here and now" observation. In a straight run of "normal" westerlies today, and temperatures in the south are widely 3-4C above the mean for this time of May. Closer to normal elsewhere, and further west. It rather illustrates that in order to get a sub par month we require a run of sustained flow from somewhere between NW and NE, and the corollary to that being that it just isn't happening: the most we get is a day or two at a time, and then only once or twice a month at most. We have to go back to last August for a month with sustained flow from the north, and much of that was returning tropical air.

Well, the westerly airflow is sub-tropical maritime for the south of England mixing with more normal mid-Atlantic winds for the rest of the UK. Temps in the CET zone are perhaps only 1C above the mean.

[Snowly does it]

for fun and frolics, the CET for a year consisting of all the 'coldest' months since 2000 would be 9.1 - already approaching the nadir of 1996 which seems unnattainable in truth now

For warmest months in this period, we would get a CET of 12.05, toasty

Edited May 7, 2007 by snowmaiden

[Mammatus]

Well, the westerly airflow is sub-tropical maritime for the south of England mixing with more normal mid-Atlantic winds for the rest of the UK. Temps in the CET zone are perhaps only 1C above the mean.

Yes, temperatures have been average here today, certainly not 3/4 C above the mean for this time in May. We've reached 14.2C today, distinctly average.

Mammatus

[TEITS]

I agree with the most recent comments. Currently about 15C here and been no higher. Bearing in mind the airflow down here does indeed have a bit of an element of a tropical maritime influence a temp between 14 to 16C is pretty much what you would expect for the end of the first week in May, under such a damp airflow.

Tamara

Same here Tamara according to the official RAF Wittering weather station. A majority of the afternoon it has been 14C but peaked at 17.00 with 15C being recorded.

It actually feels quiet chilly and may even have to switch on my central heating later

Looking generally at S England the average temp seems to be around 16C with only a very few locations recording 18C.

[osmposm]

...being fastidious and pernickerty about 17 years says it all really. The Earth has been here millions of years, you or I haven't, or our weather records/observations haven't so stop being so sanctimonious and self-satisfied. Look at the bigger picture - not 348 years. Climate goes in cycles. Your post explains very little to support your arguement which I find unproductive and uneffectual to this thread.

17 years in 348 is nearly 5%. Since this thread is concerned with the continuation or otherwise of the "ongoing warmth in the UK", I consider it important for us to know, mathematically and climatically, exactly how extraordinary this current run of warmth is. Stratos has, fully and repeatedly, explained just how amazing it is, and it is quite unnecessary for me to add more of such detail to be 'productive' or 'effectual' in supporting the argument.

My point is that since we are discussing - at least as a starting point - the known facts and their interpretation, then getting a pretty basic one wrong is unfortunate. And it suggests that you are not overly interested in the numbers that form the basis of the discussion, and have probably never bothered to look at them directly, let alone analyse them: you simply feel that because we can never know the detail of earlier periods, any run of the recent past - and yes, of course it's only recent, relatively-speaking - is irrelevant. I believe that Stratos has demonstrated clearly that even within the historical record such a run is so unprecedented that it is relevant.

I may, perhaps, be sanctimonious (or at least tactless). But from where I'm looking, self-satisfaction is more the province of those who just somehow seem to know that everything's going to be all right soon, however strongly the figures warn us otherwise.

Edited May 7, 2007 by osmposm

[johnholmes]

oy you 3

Tamara, EITS and Mammatus!

Please stick to the title of this thread. There is one for current weather or whatever your off topic posts should go in, certainly not in here.

many thanks

John

[TEITS]

oy you 3

Tamara, EITS and Mammatus!

Please stick to the title of this thread. There is one for current weather or whatever your off topic posts should go in, certainly not in here.

many thanks

John

Sorry John but our posts are on topic because they are in reference to SF earlier post.

[PersianPaladin]

Sorry John but our posts are on topic because they are in reference to SF earlier post.

Lol. Talk about rubbing-it-in.

[johnholmes]

A more "here and now" observation. In a straight run of "normal" westerlies today, and temperatures in the south are widely 3-4C above the mean for this time of May. Closer to normal elsewhere, and further west. It rather illustrates that in order to get a sub par month we require a run of sustained flow from somewhere between NW and NE, and the corollary to that being that it just isn't happening: the most we get is a day or two at a time, and then only once or twice a month at most. We have to go back to last August for a month with sustained flow from the north, and much of that was returning tropical air.

being a touch pedantic me thinks EITS but nevertheless SF can I ask you please not to encourage certain people to stray too readily from the title please?

I know your post was a mix and was a comparison but the like of the 3 I mentioned seem to think its an excuse for wholesale off topic comments.

thanks in antic

John

[Stratos Ferric]

...

being a touch pedantic me thinks EITS but nevertheless SF can I ask you please not to encourage certain people to stray too readily from the title please?

I know your post was a mix and was a comparison but the like of the 3 I mentioned seem to think its an excuse for wholesale off topic comments.

thanks in antic

John

Apologies John, but I didn't think my original point was off beam, simply explanatory regarding the ongoing tendency for most things to be a bit warmer than they should be. I do apologies for EITS, Tamara and co, who variously made comments of rebuttal but which were not rebutting the point I made at all, had they bothered to read carefully what I said. [Tutsomepeople] smiley.

[johnholmes]

cheers SF, tut indeed for some people.

[Calrissian]

Well, I've been enjoying this latest burst of the denialist vs enlightened theorectical camps.

April was the first of the major jump months, May is progressing quite fine, and is exactly as I had suggested. So far its been cloudy, and rather dull, but yet the CET is STILL above average. If we have that ridge back we'll be right back into the high 70s, and then the denialists will be again clawing for thoes northerly 'cool blasts'.

I find it all frakking hilarious really. 8 months of this year to go, which makes for a lot of entertainment yet to read.

Indeed, what a great year its turning out to be. With each further month of unprecedented record breaking months the battlelines between posters will only intensify.

--

Stage'4 (where temps are 5C on average higher for 2-3 months at a time) is still a while off (2009-10 I believe).

As for S'5, well, thats a whole other thread

Calrissian: Proud to be santimonious (but not particularly satisfied lately)