June C.E.T

[West is Best]

i think thats obvious, with messy synoptics you get messy weather, some getting lucky and others missing out... its obviously frustrating if you want some sun/heat and others get it but not you!

Yes, but I was hinting at something a little less capricious i.e. not just the odd max missed here and there but a marked and fundamental difference averaging out throughout the month. I suspect there is a susbstantial regional variation this month: more than normal.

By the way, it has been raining here constantly since lunchtime - often heavily. So don't think I am entirely unrealistic.

Edited June 20, 2007 by West is Best

[mushymanrob]

Yes, but I was hinting at something a little less capricious i.e. not just the odd max missed here and there but a marked and fundamental difference averaging out throughout the month. I suspect there is a susbstantial regional variation this month: more than normal.

By the way, it has been raining here constantly since lunchtime - often heavily. So don't think I am entirely unrealistic.

im not so sure it the 'odd max's missed out here and there', i think its possibly much more widespread. i also think that the loss of max's is remarkable in this current time where gw seems to be rampant.

tbh richard, im with teits here finding it amazing, and somewhat baffling that we could end june, a warm june, without a 'hot spell' . much cooler junes have produced a few 'hot' days consecutavely, countrywide too.

i too would like to see some stats regarding this years maxs, maybe a new thread asking for them would be in order!

[West is Best]

finding it amazing, and somewhat baffling that we could end june, a warm june, without a 'hot spell' .

We have hot spells. I would call 25C hot, and we've had a lot of them. We sat out and sunbathed for several days. Just depends where you live I suppose.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Yes, but I was hinting at something a little less capricious i.e. not just the odd max missed here and there but a marked and fundamental difference averaging out throughout the month. I suspect there is a susbstantial regional variation this month: more than normal.

By the way, it has been raining here constantly since lunchtime - often heavily. So don't think I am entirely unrealistic.

Check out Philip's site on the page where he has a breakdown on regional anomalies. I think you'll find that much of western Britain has had slightly above average sunshine while eastern Scotland and NE England are struggling in the 60s % (and that's not accounting for the fact that the east coast has been much duller, relative to normal, than areas further inland!)

[ribster]

We have hot spells. I would call 25C hot, and we've had a lot of them. We sat out and sunbathed for several days. Just depends where you live I suppose.

It's all down to personal opinion. I hate hot weather, but I don't call 25C hot, unless you are talking about night time temps.

[Don]

It's all down to personal opinion. I hate hot weather, but I don't call 25C hot, unless you are talking about night time temps.

I agree. I wouldn't call 25C hot, more in the 'very warm' category for June. That said, we have got used to higher temperatures generally over the last few years.

[mushymanrob]

We have hot spells. I would call 25C hot, and we've had a lot of them. We sat out and sunbathed for several days. Just depends where you live I suppose.

i too would call 25c hot, you are lucky!

looking at the latest gfs.... im not so sure that the cet sun-thurs next week wont be as low as 15c... they look awfully cool charts and the nights will be cool too..... but ill avoid exceter just in case!

[West is Best]

i too would call 25c hot, you are lucky!

looking at the latest gfs.... im not so sure that the cet sun-thurs next week wont be as low as 15c... they look awfully cool charts and the nights will be cool too..... but ill avoid exceter just in case!

I said 4 or 5 days with the CET (max) failing to reach 15C. No chance. I'm safe, and so is everyone else lol!

The GFS always gets its temps too low on the projection. It's currently progging some 11C maxes in central England. These temps are far lower than the reality will be given the time of year and the 850hPa temps. The Met Office and BBC are a much better guide.

As a point of interest, there are actually some warm sectors in those 850hPa's coming out of Scandinavia. If the northerly source gets cut off further it won't be anything like so cold as some are anticipating.

[Weather-history]

i too would call 25c hot, you are lucky!

It depends when it occurs in in month. A 25C at the beginning of the month is not quite the same as a 25C at the end of the month if you measure it against the expected average at the time, in a month that gets warmer or cooler as you progress through it.

June is such a month.

Using Philip's graph.

1st June expected mean max. is 17.5

30th June expected mean max. 20.0

So you can see "25C" is not quite as "hot" at the end of the month than at the beginning if you compare it against the expected average.

Edited June 21, 2007 by Mr_Data

[noggin]

What is the CET so far this month?

[Joneseye]

What is the CET so far this month?

CET: (Jun 1-19): 16.1°C (+2.3 degC)

E&W Rain: (Jun 1-19): 58.9mm (137 per cent)

E&W Sun: (Jun 1-19): 103.4hr ( 86 per cent)

Taken from http://www.climate-uk.com

[Stratos Ferric]

I said 4 or 5 days with the CET (max) failing to reach 15C. No chance. I'm safe, and so is everyone else lol!

The GFS always gets its temps too low on the projection. It's currently progging some 11C maxes in central England. These temps are far lower than the reality will be given the time of year and the 850hPa temps. The Met Office and BBC are a much better guide.

As a point of interest, there are actually some warm sectors in those 850hPa's coming out of Scandinavia. If the northerly source gets cut off further it won't be anything like so cold as some are anticipating.

Quite agree. At this time of year, in a slow northerly flow, it would be perfectly feasible for 20C to be reached in the south if the skies stayed fairly clear. Thinking back to the winters just gone I'm sure I remember more than one occasion when southerners in our midst have bemoaned a clear northerly flow which has allowed temps to climb to six, seven, or even eight degrees. Much depends on the speed of flow: in slowish air boundary warming can occur to significant levels above those presumed in the normal linear equations used to convery from uppers to surface temps.

In addition, as WiB suggests, there's still time between now and next week for fine detail to emerge to add more modification. I'm still watch the HP to the W which might move sooner rather than later - though this could, arguably, go either way, the form horse is repeatedly for cold bursts to be spoiled by detail that GFS cannot detect at distance.

With 2-3 par or better days to finish the month, and yesterday and today more likely to see a climb than a drop in mean to date, I really don't see the remaining 6 or so days producing anything remotely cold enough to get us down to 15C. 15.3 is the likely floor, 15.6 probably the upper end at present.

[Optimus Prime]

Well the period 22nd-30th June looks very cool with an average temperature of just 11.4c. 3.6c below for the second half.

If this were to come of the average temperature to the end of June will be 14.7c. Close to average and the coolest since 2002.

[mushymanrob]

It depends when it occurs in in month. A 25C at the beginning of the month is not quite the same as a 25C at the end of the month if you measure it against the expected average at the time, in a month that gets warmer or cooler as you progress through it.

June is such a month.

Using Philip's graph.

1st June expected mean max. is 17.5

30th June expected mean max. 20.0

So you can see "25C" is not quite as "hot" at the end of the month than at the beginning if you compare it against the expected average.

i take you point

[Weather-history]

What is the CET so far this month?

The Hadley CET is 15.9

[snowray]

The Hadley CET is 15.9

I thought it was still above 16c, so its started to fall already then...

[Optimus Prime]

The Hadley CET is 15.9

Hi Mr.Data do you know since 1995 what the latest date 30c has been achieved? If we pass June without a single station recording 30c it must be quite something?

[Weather-history]

I thought it was still above 16c, so its started to fall already then...

There's a 0.2C between Philip's and Hadley's value.

[snowray]

There's a 0.2C between Philip's and Hadley's value.

I had a feeling that one of them was still on 16.1c, well at least theres no more upward movement.

[Snowly does it]

I had a feeling that one of them was still on 16.1c, well at least theres no more upward movement.

Hadley was on 15.8 on Tuesday and rose yesterday to 15.9, holding firm today

Manley has held at 16.1

Slight increments and I expect today to take it to 16 and 16.2 before it starts to tail off a little with both indices in the 15s by the end of next week.

Final figure below 15.3 very doubtful for me unless minima crash under the northerly

Edited June 21, 2007 by snowmaiden

[West is Best]

Slight increments and I expect today to take it to 16 and 16.2 before it starts to tail off a little with both indices in the 15s by the end of next week.

Final figure below 15.3 very doubtful for me unless minima crash under the northerly

Yes tomorrow and Saturday may well be rising CET days. Sunday will probably be a holding day. So no real tail off until Monday.

It's the same old story (or rather new story) that we so easily overlook: the minima. There are no cold minima in CET zone until at least Sunday night. Even if the max only goes to 18C, if the min is 14C it ain't gonna drop from 16C! Warm nights are the story here.

There should be a drop from Monday, but I can't see it getting down to 15C from here.

The word 'amazement' gets used to readily, but it is remarkable how warm this month is turning out given how relatively poor the synoptics are.

[SP1986]

Yes tomorrow and Saturday may well be rising CET days. Sunday will probably be a holding day. So no real tail off until Monday.

It's the same old story (or rather new story) that we so easily overlook: the minima. There are no cold minima in CET zone until at least Sunday night. Even if the max only goes to 18C, if the min is 14C it ain't gonna drop from 16C! Warm nights are the story here.

There should be a drop from Monday, but I can't see it getting down to 15C from here.

The word 'amazement' gets used to readily, but it is remarkable how warm this month is turning out given how relatively poor the synoptics are.

Yes but amazement is somewhat of a opiniative word, so it can't be used too readily?

[snowray]

Well it certainly will be fun to watch the CET drop next week, I personally feel that its as high as its going to go this month, with all the heavy rain thats going to be around in the next couple of days I can only see it staying where it is until Sunday and then down fast. Rainfall totals could be pretty impressive too, right through into July, watch out Winbledon! :o

[kold weather]

Looking likely we will end up somehwere between 15.5-16C now, I think the biggest drop will easily be on Monday. SF said about 20C in clear skies...problem is the models are progging quite an active front to be sat right acorss England and swinging southwards on Monday. with thickness down to 543-546 generally plus with quite heavy rain and uppers barely above 0C in some parts GFS probably won't be that far out on its maxes, maxes of 12-13C likely in the CET zone, mins anywhere between 7-11C would be my punt.

A very slow drop down to 15.7C after a slight rise tommorow would be my call now.

[tinybill]

well if tomorow weather for the east is up t0 40mm of rain or more , plus with temp if we lucky on sunday a dizzy 14,