June C.E.T

[Thundery wintry showers]

I don't think easterlies at this time of year tend to bring below average months anyway ("easterly" airmasses of continental origin tend to be warm in summer for much the same reasons as they tend to be cold in winter). The only exception tends to be the North Sea coasts.

For a below average month in summer we tend to have to look west and north. Incidentally, for June, the cool = dull and wet relationship doesn't hold as strongly as for July or August, because the Atlantic tends to be less strong, and some cool Junes can have relatively sunny fresh weather from the N and NW. By contrast, most instances of cool July and August weather have a raging Atlantic and so tend to be dull and wet, with cool but sunny examples being few and far between.

I think the North East will come out with an above average mean temperature this June, but the anomaly will probably be less than 1C (as opposed to around 1.5C averaged nationally) and much of it will come from warm nights.

[Stratos Ferric]

I don't think easterlies at this time of year tend to bring below average months anyway ("easterly" airmasses of continental origin tend to be warm in summer for much the same reasons as they tend to be cold in winter). The only exception tends to be the North Sea coasts.

For a below average month in summer we tend to have to look west and north. Incidentally, for June, the cool = dull and wet relationship doesn't hold as strongly as for July or August, because the Atlantic tends to be less strong, and some cool Junes can have relatively sunny fresh weather from the N and NW. By contrast, most instances of cool July and August weather have a raging Atlantic and so tend to be dull and wet, with cool but sunny examples being few and far between.

I think the North East will come out with an above average mean temperature this June, but the anomaly will probably be less than 1C (as opposed to around 1.5C averaged nationally) and much of it will come from warm nights.

Agree with all of the three or four posts above. As TWS suggests, a cool month really does require flows vectored between NW-NE for most of the month, ideally with frontal activity thrown in to keep the high sun off. Looking forward at the models, which are tneding to become slightly warmer over the past few days (the spell of NE'ly shown on the models at the start of the week has gone: as I keep saying, GFS over projects at long-range LP to our E/NE by about a factor of ten): yes, the HPs have some short N'ly component in them, but at this time in clear air the warming effect of the sun is considerable in ANY airstream. In winter it's different, the sun is far too low from early Nov - mid Feb for this to be true, and in any case the ground is usually wet.

For an average month we require some cold days. There are always (particularly nowadays) going to be warm days; ipso facto, we need equalising cold. It just doesn't happen, or at least it is happening so rarely at present that hoping for it is starting to appear to be a pointless pipedream. As PIT says, it's looking warm, though I'm not seeing huge warmth (up in the 30s), though, as WiB says, it could al change. The wiser bet, though, is that any change is upwards not down.

[Calrissian]

...regardless, its looking like yet another month at least 1.5 above normal. That'll do for me.

---

In the last few weeks - maybe its me, but I have noticed less talk of 'cool' months. The chatter has become merely a matter of whether it'll be 'warm', 'hot' or 'unbearably gas mark 7 hot'. For me, that says a lot about just how warm the year has been.

With just 3 weeks until the half way point, I think the average viewpoint has moved quite a way.

Calrissian: holding at 11.95 for the year.

[sundog]

Well i think that the second half of the year will be cooler then the first and might help balance out things at least a little and that the cet for the year might not be quite so high as some people think

[Iceberg]

A bit jump yesterday up to 16C (+2.6C)

[West is Best]

Well i think that the second half of the year will be cooler then the first

Whilst nothing is impossible that is statistically extremely improbable. On the 1971-2000 figures the combined CET for the first half of the year is 48.2C, and for the second half 68.8C. Even with a warm first half such as this year's it would take something seismic to produce a cooler second half. It's near impossible. Kevin will now produce some instance of it occurring, but a cursory glance by me just now on the figures since 1659 couldn't pick one up.

When you consider that September is on average 2C warmer than May, with October just 1C behind May you get a scale of what you would need. Even November is warmer on average than March, and December more than January and February. The two statistically warmest months by far are still to come (July and August). Statistically it's very improbable that this year will now see a cooldown, and although I opened by saying 'nothing is impossible' this would probably require a volcanic eruption or a meteor impact.

On the subject of wanting cooler months, any chance we could leave that until after summer?! I do deeply worry about climate change but I'm loving this gorgeous weather we've been having here.

Edited June 10, 2007 by West is Best

[Weather-history]

Whilst nothing is impossible that is statistically extremely improbable. On the 1971-2000 figures the combined CET for the first half of the year is 48.2C, and for the second half 68.8C. Even with a warm first half such as this year's it would take something seismic to produce a cooler second half. It's near impossible. Kevin will now produce some instance of it occurring, but a cursory glance by me just now on the figures since 1659 couldn't pick one up.

Its has never happened and extremely unlikely to.

There have been years where the first half has had a net positive anomaly and the second half a net negative anomaly such as with 1993.

[Snowly does it]

On the subject of wanting cooler months, any chance we could leave that until after summer?! I do deeply worry about climate change but I'm loving this gorgeous weather we've been having here.

Everyone else can if they want, but I am still hoping for cool, annoyance of sun bunnies notwithstanding.

I wouldn't worry, its a vain hope.

Huge leap in the Manley figure yesterday but our maxima are still far from eye-catching for summer - seems awfully convenient that the cloud clears the CET zone during the day and rolls in overnight, someone taking the rise I think.

Lets see if Hadley update and are still some way behind Manley (0.4 down as of yesterday)

Edited June 10, 2007 by snowmaiden

[West is Best]

Everyone else can if they want, but I am still hoping for cool, annoyance of sun bunnies notwithstanding.

I wouldn't worry, its a vain hope.

I am just loving this though. Our new bedroom has an east facing window and without a single house in view it means the sun rises over the fields and floods us with light. It's magical and I love it!

I think we may be in for some lively weather. Even though the cooler potential from the north looks to be kept at bay, the next best thing for the majority on here (if we have to have warmth) is thunderstorms ... well it looks to me like we're in for some fun and games. Much better than last year's start to summer which was truly metronomic under that displaced Azores high. This time we could have some real fun with southerly/continental convection and some sharp thunderstorms.

Overall I can't really see much sign of the CET average dropping. Indeed, we may be in for some very muggy nights to keep it propped up even more.

Edited June 10, 2007 by West is Best

[Snowly does it]

I am just loving this though. Our new bedroom has an east facing window and without a single house in view it means the sun rises over the fields and floods us with light. It's magical and I love it!

I think we may be in for some lively weather. Even though the cooler potential from the north looks to be kept at bay, the next best thing for the majority on here (if we have to have warmth) is thunderstorms ... well it looks to me like we're in for some fun and games. Much better than last year's start to summer which was truly metronomic under that displaced Azores high. This time we could have some real fun with southerly/continental convection and some sharp thunderstorms.

Overall I can't really see much sign of the CET average dropping. Indeed, we may be in for some very muggy nights to keep it propped up even more.

Actually, I agree entirely - the potential for thunderstorms is exciting.

And strangely enough, depsite the well above average CET I am reasonably content with June thus far - the actual whole UK temperature is nowhere near as anomolously high so the 'slightly west of centre' folks can have the excess warmth. I have no objection to temperatures in the low twenties in summer, would prefer clearer and cooler nights though

Edited June 10, 2007 by snowmaiden

[Stu_London]

Well i think that the second half of the year will be cooler then the first and might help balance out things at least a little and that the cet for the year might not be quite so high as some people think

What was unusual about 2006 was the period Aug (06) to Jan (07) was 0.40C warmer than the period Feb (06) to Jul (06). In the 30 year period prior to this, there was only one other occurance of this being 1979 (Feb 79-Jul79 was 8.97C - Aug79-Jan80 was 9.10C). Aug06-Jan07 was 11.25!

[WBSH]

Although there have been some months that have been ridiculously above average this year, I dont think people should get too despondent about it. March and May were not that much above the CET and anyway, I would rather have an average or below average month during the end of the year. The fact is, things are warming up considerable whether we like it or not. CET is merely proving this not causing it!

[Lettucing Gutted]

I'm loving this gorgeous weather we've been having here.

This weather isn't really gorgeous at all to the Polar Bears. It's killin' 'em! :blush:

[Lettucing Gutted]

What has happened to the May C.E.T thread? I clicked on the link but all I got was a "Board Error Message".

[Stu_London]

Looking at the 12Z GFS run, we may see a slight rise for today and possibly tomorrow however low daytime maxes look the order of the day for the rest of the week although there is likely to be a steep temperature gradient and uncertainty over how far south into the CET zone these progress.

Later in the week, the daytime temps will remain just below the average throughout the CET zone, however there is the prospect of some lower night time minimas.

Overall the signal is that the CET in running will drop in the next 7 days although there is quite a range as to where we could be by next weekend.

My guess is about 15.3C by next weekend, although if I had to call a spread the range would be 14.3C - 16.0C.

[Iceberg]

Another big jump by 0.2 to 16.2C or +2.8C. for the first third of June.

Edited June 11, 2007 by Iceberg

[DR Hosking]

Im still suprised that the CET is so high, its over a degree higher than here in Northants. Also it says its +2.8 above average, how can this be when the 30 year average for this part of Northants is 15 degrees, and we are only 0.3 degrees above it. If thats correct than the June CET average is 13.4 degrees, a full 1.6 degrees lower than the 30 year average than whaer I am, right in the middle of the cet zone?

[Stu_London]

Im still suprised that the CET is so high, its over a degree higher than here in Northants. Also it says its +2.8 above average, how can this be when the 30 year average for this part of Northants is 15 degrees, and we are only 0.3 degrees above it. If thats correct than the June CET average is 13.4 degrees, a full 1.6 degrees lower than the 30 year average than whaer I am, right in the middle of the cet zone?

1) It's +2.8 above for the period 01-10Jun

2) June is month of transisition. Should the CET remain at 16.2C by the end of June it would be 2.1C above average

3) Whilst you might be right in the middle, your maxima might be supressed by the low cloud we had over the end of last wee

[DR Hosking]

Thanks Stu, didn't realise the amount above average wis worked out on a daily basis, yes I suppose our temps could have been suppressed by the cloud we have had.

[Summer of 95]

What was unusual about 2006 was the period Aug (06) to Jan (07) was 0.40C warmer than the period Feb (06) to Jul (06). In the 30 year period prior to this, there was only one other occurance of this being 1979 (Feb 79-Jul79 was 8.97C - Aug79-Jan80 was 9.10C). Aug06-Jan07 was 11.25!

What I've been looking at CET-wise recently is the number of months in a year that are 10C-plus: for most of the 18th and 19th Centuries 5 was the norm, only the warmest years having 6.

6 months of 10C+ seems to have become the rule rather than the exception from about 1900; the first year to manage 7 was 1943 (although 1893 had come very close), then it happened again in 1945 and 1949. 1961 also made it into the 7 club, however since then, despite all the warming, it has only happened once; in 1994 due to its extraordinary November.

What triggered the change from 5 to 6 being the typical number of months at 10+ seemed to be October pulling its average above 10C more often than not; what will be needed to shift it to 7 is for 10C Aprils to become commoner, as they did for a time in the 1940s. I mentioned in a previous thread in Feb or March this year how April seemed to be the month dragging its feet as far as warming was concerned; now we've had the hottest April on record it's odds-on that 2007 will have 7 months above 10C, and looking likely that 7 months above 11C (which is unheard of) will be recorded. Is this the start of a new era where 7 months at 10+ becomes the norm?

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think, rather like you said, it would require Aprils to be >10C on a regular basis, which is some 2C above the 30-year mean. I don't think that will happen in the near future, unless our warming accelerates such that the recent level of warmth is sustained and we end up with 2C above the 1971-2000 average as opposed to 0.5-1.0C above across the Northern Hemisphere as a whole.

[noggin]

As a Central England triangle bottom left hand corner resident, I'm not surprised that the CET is going up. The past 3 days here have been hot and humid.

[Stratos Ferric]

Im still suprised that the CET is so high, its over a degree higher than here in Northants. Also it says its +2.8 above average, how can this be when the 30 year average for this part of Northants is 15 degrees, and we are only 0.3 degrees above it. If thats correct than the June CET average is 13.4 degrees, a full 1.6 degrees lower than the 30 year average than whaer I am, right in the middle of the cet zone?

Philip gives the relative value according to the average for the month to date, not the month as a whole. Thus, for example, it is possible after a third of the month for rainfall, say, to show >100% of norm, despite being well below the normal total for the month as a whole.

Also, as I mentioned previously, you may or may not be in CET land, but that in no way means that your site is representative.

3) Whilst you might be right in the middle, your maxima might be supressed by the low cloud we had over the end of last wee

I'd hardly say that Dr H is "in the middle". He may have something of a case for being a middle Englander, but he is, by my reckoning, OUTSIDE the CET zone (a triangle bounded by Manchester, Bristol and London). Nowhere EAST of the M1 can possibly be in the CET zone.

[Stu_London]

Philip gives the relative value according to the average for the month to date, not the month as a whole. Thus, for example, it is possible after a third of the month for rainfall, say, to show >100% of norm, despite being well below the normal total for the month as a whole.

Also, as I mentioned previously, you may or may not be in CET land, but that in no way means that your site is representative.

I'd hardly say that Dr H is "in the middle". He may have something of a case for being a middle Englander, but he is, by my reckoning, OUTSIDE the CET zone (a triangle bounded by Manchester, Bristol and London). Nowhere EAST of the M1 can possibly be in the CET zone.

All the more likely to have values surpressed by low cloud last week then as west was definately best.

[summer blizzard]

According to Phillip Eden, the CET upto the 10th was 16.2C, and with another warm week in the south with high minima, it is reasonable to assume that the CET will be between 16.5C and 16.9C for the 1st-15th, as for the rest of the month, the CET looks to come out around average, meaning that the Manley CET for the month would be around 15.2C to 15.6C.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Despite good agreement throughout the run on near average upper air values, there is still time for warm or cold runs to be amplified.

Hadley seems to be running 0.4C lower than Manley.