June C.E.T

[Optimus Prime]

But in the past there would be warm weather and cool, wetter spells.

In fact the CET for the 61-90 average is higher then for the period 71-000 average (14.2c/14.1c)

Since 2000 June has seen exceptionally warm spells with little cooler breakdowns.

Now the average from 1997-2006 is 14.88c. he only reason why it isn't very high is because of 4 normal and 1 below average ones.

[Anti-Mild]

Up until yesterday, the stats on Philip Eden's Climate UK website are as follows:

CET: 16.1c (+2.9c)

Rain: 1.5mm (13%)

Sun: 37.7hrs (119%)

On Netweather's temperature tracker the CET stands at 15.38c, or 1.28c above the 71-00 average.

It's not often that the 2 figures are so far apart. I have to say, I normally take more notice of Mr Eden's figure but it seems that Netweather's figure is more realistic.

[Joneseye]

Good Morning! Latest Manley CET:

CET: (Jun 1- 5): 16.1°C (+2.9 degC)

E&W Rain: (Jun 1- 5): 1.5mm ( 13 per cent)

E&W Sun: (Jun 1- 5): 37.7hr (119 per cent)

Figures from http://www.climate-uk.com

The current N-W UK tracker figure for June 2007 is: 15.38°C (difference from average June CET is 1.28°C).

If anyone can post a link to the Hadley figure that would be great.

A small drop in the CET from Manley yesterday, but still quite a big disparity to the NW Tracker... normally it is the other way round and the tracker is slightly higher in terms of the temps.

[DR Hosking]

not sure why the CET is so high presently? Im in Northamptonshire, right in the middle of the CET zone and our local weather station (proper one not automatic) up to today is currently showing an average of 15.3 degrees. How can this be? nearly a degree below the CET! Doesn't give me much confidence in the CET being that accurate or relevant!

[Joneseye]

not sure why the CET is so high presently? Im in Northamptonshire, right in the middle of the CET zone and our local weather station (proper one not automatic) up to today is currently showing an average of 15.3 degrees. How can this be? nearly a degree below the CET! Doesn't give me much confidence in the CET being that accurate or relevant!

A few people have questioned why Manley is so high this month and I am sure there is a perfectly reasonable explanation. Not quite sure I would go as far as to questioning the accuracy or relevance after 5 full days!

My own take on it (without having looked into the data) is that there has been a tendency for it to cloud over at night in the first 5 days of this month. It seems in recent times that the higher CET figures we have been seeing have been more due to nightime minima than daytime maxima (April aside).

IJ

[Kentish Man]

A few people have questioned why Manley is so high this month and I am sure there is a perfectly reasonable explanation. Not quite sure I would go as far as to questioning the accuracy or relevance after 5 full days!

My own take on it (without having looked into the data) is that there has been a tendency for it to cloud over at night in the first 5 days of this month. It seems in recent times that the higher CET figures we have been seeing have been more due to nightime minima than daytime maxima (April aside).

IJ

It is a little odd though. Overenight 3/4th minima here were about 11.5C and maxima on the 4th circa 19.5C, giving a mean of about 15.5C. Manley yesterday (5th) had an increase in CET from 16.0C to 16.2C which might suggest a CET average on the 4th of say 16.5 - 17C (I haven't done the exact maths!). Dr Hosking in his post described the situation in Northants which seems similar to my area. Maybe it comes back to my previous post on this thread that the CET zone is slightly west biased stretching as it does from Bristol to London to Manchester (correct me if I'm wrong). Either that or there is some anomaly in the Manley figures that is creating a marked difference from the Hadley and the NW tracker figures that seem more realistic.

[Stratos Ferric]

not sure why the CET is so high presently? Im in Northamptonshire, right in the middle of the CET zone and our local weather station (proper one not automatic) up to today is currently showing an average of 15.3 degrees. How can this be? nearly a degree below the CET! Doesn't give me much confidence in the CET being that accurate or relevant!

Let's not leap to wild assumptions regarding the veracity of CET based on five days' comparison with one site in Northampton. it might be worth your reading through a recent thread started by PP pondering on whether the CET is an irrelevance. His point was that CET was different to Durham, which is like saying New York is different to Port Stanley and being surprised by the stated fact. The CET does what it says on the can, it is not a Northampton series, or a Durham series, or a Birmingham series: it is an index based on several stations (loosely) in the triangle between Manchester, London and Brisole. A variation of 0.5C or so with individual stations in the hinterland (or even inside) of this zone is trivial: a locally cloudy night can swing things by three or four degrees, as can a cloudy day. If the variation were five degrees or so there might be grounds for debate.

[Joneseye]

Let's not leap to wild assumptions regarding the veracity of CET based on five days' comparison with one site in Northampton. it might be worth your reading through a recent thread started by PP pondering on whether the CET is an irrelevance. His point was that CET was different to Durham, which is like saying New York is different to Port Stanley and being surprised by the stated fact. The CET does what it says on the can, it is not a Northampton series, or a Durham series, or a Birmingham series: it is an index based on several stations (loosely) in the triangle between Manchester, London and Brisole. A variation of 0.5C or so with individual stations in the hinterland (or even inside) of this zone is trivial: a locally cloudy night can swing things by three or four degrees, as can a cloudy day. If the variation were five degrees or so there might be grounds for debate.

I knew you would be able to put things a little more eloquently than my earlier attempt..

[Snowly does it]

Hadley at 15.5 to the 5th a whopping 0.6 below the current Manley reading - I don't remember that much discord between the two figures before. Be interesting to see where they end up!

[Stu_London]

Hadley at 15.5 to the 5th a whopping 0.6 below the current Manley reading - I don't remember that much discord between the two figures before. Be interesting to see where they end up!

Big (suspicious?) change to Manley today

Down to 15.7C

Looking ahead, although we have warm air aloft and the potential for high temperatures for the next few days, the cloud cover is supressing this potential. From the 11th some sort of pattern change looks likely with a cool down.

A long way to go but I think the people who punted high are struggling again.

Edited June 7, 2007 by Stu_London

[Joneseye]

Big (suspicious?) change to Manley today

Down to 15.7C

That is quite a dip even with a small dataset for the month so far. Maybe there were some data errors that have been corrected now?

[Snowly does it]

Hadley down to 15.3 to the 6th

[summer blizzard]

The CET is likely to be around 15.5C by the 10th going by the Manley figure i think, afterwards an average period looks to be on the cards until around the 20th, so i think that the CET may drop to around 14.8C, afterwards the final third could go either way, though any change will be minimal given that it will be late in the month, personally, i think a CET under 16C is likely.

[snowray]

The CET is likely to be around 15.5C by the 10th going by the Manley figure i think, afterwards an average period looks to be on the cards until around the 20th, so i think that the CET may drop to around 14.8C, afterwards the final third could go either way, though any change will be minimal given that it will be late in the month, personally, i think a CET under 16C is likely.

14.8C Like the sound of that!

[Snowly does it]

14.8C Like the sound of that!

Only 0.7 above average for June Snowray

[Don]

I think a CET between 15 & 16C is quite a safe bet at the moment, pretty similar to Junes of recent years.

Edited June 7, 2007 by Don

[The PIT]

Taking a little dip at the moment. The weekend is supposed to warm up a bit though so it should rise again.

[Snowly does it]

15.1 and Hadley and 15.5 according to Phillip Eden on Manley (www.climate-uk.com) to the 7th

I would anticipate things rising again for a few days now however at this early stage it looks like an above average June to the tune of one degree and some tenths looks in order

[Iceberg]

15.6 C now so a full 2.3C above normal for the first 8 days, it's going to be difficult to recover from such a high start to anything near average. It should go up to 15.8 by the end of the weekend too.

[kold weather]

Yeah its a very warm start tohugh the model do seem to be predicting a set-up where we are constantly in lower thicknesses from the 15th onwards which could well help to slowly drag the CET donw over a period of 10 days or so but till then it'll probably stay close to 16C.

[summer blizzard]

If we split the month into thirds, then the CET upto the 10th is likely to be between 15.6C and 16C, however in my opinion, the period 1lth to the 20th looks to record a near average value, and should cause the CET to drop to between 15C and 15.4C by the 20th, if we see average or below average values afterwards, the CET is likely to drop below 15C, however above average values will see us remain above 15C.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Some of the warmth can be explained by the fact that we've been in a very warm continental easterly regime (though moderated extensively by the North Sea). Temperatures should fall below average in the north next week as a north-easterly regime and rain sets in, but in the south, where it may be brighter and more showery with a cyclonic regime, temperatures may continue above the long-term mean.

[The PIT]

I think we'll find the CET will stay comfortably above average. No sign of any cool weather on either the GFS or the ECM. Even for the north, which if it did occur wouldn't effect the CET anyway. At the present time it's looking like another silly warm month is possible but without any real dramtic high temps.

[West is Best]

I think we'll find the CET will stay comfortably above average. No sign of any cool weather on either the GFS or the ECM. Even for the north, which if it did occur wouldn't effect the CET anyway. At the present time it's looking like another silly warm month is possible but without any real dramtic high temps.

I'm finding some of the definitive comments about what is going to happen slightly bemusing. There are 3 weeks of the month still to come! Plenty of time for some high maxima (i.e. 30C's), and equally perhaps for corrections the other way. However, I do agree with you about another warm month being fairly likely overall.

Edited June 9, 2007 by West is Best

[damianslaw]

The words another warm month is likely are just depressing to my ear. I had hoped that we may perhaps record a near averageCET this month at least here in Tyne and Wear, however the next 3-4 days look like being quite above normal and from then on you would expect the trend for the CET to only go up.

Oh when will we see conditions again which could result in a near average month, i am getting very tired of this now..