Eastern Pacific Tropical systems

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Tropical Storm ALVIN Forecast/Advisory Number 11

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE MAY 29 2007

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

400 AM PDT TUE MAY 29 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL

STORM ALVIN...LOCATED ABOUT 765 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE

SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING.

CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A

TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE

SYSTEM DRIFTS NORTHWARD. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THE SYSTEM

BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD SPREAD OVER

COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO BETWEEN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC

AND ACAPULCO LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

Edited August 14, 2007 by kold weather

[Gray-Wolf]

So it begins?

Edited May 29, 2007 by Gray-Wolf

[Somerset Squall]

Scrap Alvin, it's been weak all it's life and it's life is going to end very soon.

Barbara is much more interesting:

TROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022007

200 AM PDT THU MAY 31 2007

BARBARA CONTINUES TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION WITH

TOPS COLDER THAN -80C NEAR THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO RECENT

MICROWAVE IMAGERY TO SHOW THE EXACT CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE.

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND 35 KT FROM

SAB. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT.

MICROWAVE IMAGES FROM 00Z-03Z SUGGEST THE CENTER WAS A LITTLE TO THE

NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION...SO THE INITIAL

POSITION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS NUDGED THAT WAY. THIS YIELDS A

HIGHLY UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION OF 130/2. BARBARA IS EMBEDDED IN

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDING FROM A DISTURBANCE

OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE

PACIFIC...AND A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS NORTH OF THE

CYCLONE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST

THE GULF TROUGH TO AMPLIFY WITH A SURFACE LOW FORMING DURING THE

NEXT 48 HR...THEN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM BARBARA AFTER THAT

TIME. THE GFDL... UKMET...ECMWF...GFDN...AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL

BRING BARBARA TO THE COAST OF MEXICO OR GUATEMALA IN 72 HR OR

LESS...WHILE THE GFS CALLS FOR THE STORM TO PERFORM A LOOP AND MOVE

LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. BASED ON THE SLIGHTLY FASTER MOTION

IN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE AND THE ADJUSTED POSITION... THE NEW

FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

HOWEVER...IT SLOWER THAN THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE AND BRINGS

THE CENTER NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO IN 96 HR. AS THE GULF SYSTEM

MOVED AWAY...PRESSURES SHOULD RISE NORTH OF BARBARA AND TURN THE

CYCLONE MORE WESTWARD...ASSUMING THAT IT HAS NOT MOVED ONSHORE BY

THAT TIME. THIS TRACK FORECAST REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE.

BARBARA IS IN A COMPLICATED UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN...WITH

HIGH-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST BEING UNDERCUT BY NORTHERLY FLOW

AT A SOMEWHAT LOWER LEVEL. OVERALL...THE STORM HAS POOR OUTFLOW

AND SEEMS TO BE LOSING INFLOW TO THE CARIBBEAN SYSTEM. THESE

FACTORS HAVE LIKELY SLOWED THE INTENSIFICATION. THE LARGE-SCALE

MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME

MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HR...WITH THE GFDL CALLING FOR

BARBARA TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THAT TIME. THE SHIPS MODEL

FORECAST SLOWER INTENSIFICATION...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A

COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO CALLING FOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION.

THE FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR SOME WEAKENING AFTER 96 HR DUE TO THE

EXPECTED CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE CENTER TO THE COAST.

HEAVY RAINS NOW OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA ARE NOT

DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH BARBARA. INSTEAD...THIS ACTIVITY IS DUE

TO THE DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA

AND THE RESULTING NORTHWARD PERTURBATION OF THE ITCZ.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/0900Z 13.2N 96.7W 40 KT

12HR VT 31/1800Z 12.9N 96.6W 45 KT

24HR VT 01/0600Z 12.8N 96.5W 50 KT

36HR VT 01/1800Z 13.3N 96.3W 55 KT

48HR VT 02/0600Z 13.8N 96.1W 60 KT

72HR VT 03/0600Z 14.5N 96.0W 65 KT

96HR VT 04/0600Z 15.5N 96.5W 70 KT

120HR VT 05/0600Z 16.0N 98.0W 65 KT

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

Track is very unusual, most storms head predominently northwestwards in their lifetime but this on is moving southwards, eastwards and maybe northwards. Track is very uncertain though. Forecast to become a hurricane however.

[Somerset Squall]

Barbara is being choked now within a displaced ITCZ, she is having to compete for resources with numerous lows and cells of convection around her. Because of this, despite there being low shear evident and very warm sea temps, Barbara has weakened to a tropical depression and now looks pretty unlikely to make hurricane status. She could disappear within the ITCZ at any time and it's circulation now appears very small and barely recognisable, however, the NHC favour a little strenthening as it turns north towards the mexican coastline, but the strengthening will be very modest at best.

Edited June 1, 2007 by Somerset Squall

[kold weather]

I'll keep this post short, but Barbara has got better organised today with several decent convective bursts, satelite estimates now back upto moderate tropical storm strength, some where in the region of 50-60mph. convection is still a little weak in places though there is clear banding evident by the lines of convection coming out from the center. I suspect it probably won't get quite as strong as first expected but a strong tropical storm making landfall is possible. intrestingly the NHC ttrack of Barbara take it across Mexico as a tropical depression, if it does take that track then it could end up having a set-up where it *could* re-form in the Bay of Campeche

[mezzacyclone]

from 2AM PDT? time this morning this looks about 20+ miles or so from Guatemala/Mexican border coast, as said, all very interesting only being 2nd of June and all.

Sat Location here

...BARBARA VERY NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SIPACATE GUATEMALA WESTWARD TO BARRA DE TONALA MEXICO. TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BARRA DE TONALA WESTWARD TO SALINA CRUZ.

AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.7 WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES...335 KM...SOUTHEAST OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 30 MILES...50 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE COASTLINE AT THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA.

BARBARA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL BARBARA MAKES LANDFALL NEAR THE MEXICO/GUATEMALA BORDER LATER THIS MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM

FROM THE CENTER.EST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

BARBARA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO

10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...14.4 N...92.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

[Somerset Squall]

Is it just me or does it seem that Alvin is coming back to life? The convection is really flaring around it's remenants and looks a lot more organised than this time yesterday. Perhaps the NHC will pick up on this?

[mezzacyclone]

The report suggest so it seems SS

latest NHC rep

the pacific IR loop Here shows invigoration of the storm.

Puzzled why its headed so far out west into east pacific though? or was this an expected track?

[Somerset Squall]

Tropical Depression THREE_E has formed in the Eastern Pacific. An active start to what is predicted to be a below average season!

This storm may obtain tropical storm status but is expected to be short lived.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032007

900 AM PDT MON JUN 11 2007

EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION

PERSISTING CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS

BEEN MONITORED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. A 1302 UTC QUIKSCAT

PASS AND AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS REVEALED THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS

BECOME BETTER DEFINED WITHIN THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND

THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE 25 TO 30 KT. BASED ON THE ABOVE

INFORMATION...ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION

THREE-E.

ALLOWING FOR SOME REFORMATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...THE INITIAL

MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/08. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY BEING

STEERED TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH

JUST WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY

GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALLOWING A

RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IN ABOUT 36 TO 48

HOURS. AT THAT TIME...THE WEAKENING CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN

MORE TOWARD THE WEST AND DISSIPATE IN THREE TO FOUR DAYS AS A

RESULT OF COOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.

THE DEPRESSION HAS ONLY A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN

AS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST WHICH CLOSELY

FOLLOWS CLOSELY THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/1600Z 15.7N 110.7W 30 KT

12HR VT 12/0000Z 16.2N 111.6W 35 KT

24HR VT 12/1200Z 17.1N 112.8W 35 KT

36HR VT 13/0000Z 17.7N 114.1W 30 KT

48HR VT 13/1200Z 17.7N 115.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING

72HR VT 14/1200Z 17.5N 117.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

96HR VT 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$

FORECASTER MAINELLI

[Somerset Squall]

Looks like the Eastern Pacific could become quite active again in the coming week, two new disturbances have formed and both are favourable to become tropical depressions.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1000 AM PDT FRI JUL 6 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 725 MILES SOUTH OF

MANZANILLO MEXICO. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW

DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

A SECOND AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED ABOUT 1250 MILES

SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. CONDITIONS HERE

ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT.

[Somerset Squall]

One of the disturbances has pretty much dissapated but it looks like the other could form into TD4 later today.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

400 AM PDT SUN JUL 8 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW

PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT 775 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE

SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS WELL-

ORGANIZED AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION

LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10

TO 15 MPH.

[Somerset Squall]

The disturbance in the East Pacific I was talking about has organised into TD4E, but is not expected to strengthen as it moves into cooler waters, dissapation will occur tommorrow or wednesday.

The other disturbance, further to the southwest has drifted into the Central Pacific and may develop there.

[Somerset Squall]

TD4 has now degenerated into a remenant low, but two more disturbances have now formed, both could develop.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1000 AM PDT WED JUL 11 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A REMNANT LOW ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E IS

LOCATED ABOUT 975 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA

CALIFORNIA...MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. REGENERATION IS NOT

ANTICIPATED.

A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT

825 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS

MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 MPH. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO

OCCUR.

ANOTHER AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH

OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT

AS IT MOVES WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

With the east pacific forecasted to have a below average season and the atlantic above average, you certainly wouldn't know it at the moment!

[Somerset Squall]

We now have TD5, may reach storm strength over the next 24 hours before it moves into cooler waters.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052007

800 AM PDT SAT JUL 14 2007

DEEP CONVECTION...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE...HAS

BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND CONSOLIDATED THIS MORNING. EARLY

VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A SLIGHTLY EXPOSED CENTER NORTHEAST OF THE

DEEPEST CONVECTION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM 1200 UTC WERE

2.0/30 KT FROM TAFB AND 2.5/35 KT FROM SAB. BASED ON THIS

INFORMATION...ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED FOR TROPICAL

DEPRESSION FIVE-E.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE

INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST

THROUGH THE FORECAST. THE GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS LOSE THE

VORTEX IN LESS THAN TWO DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS THE

MARGINAL SYSTEM ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK.

THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER 28 DEGREE CELSIUS WATER AND UNDER 10 KT

OF NORTHERLY SHEAR. IN THE NEAR TERM...THESE TWO FACTORS CAN AID

THE CYCLONE TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER AS THE

CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...THE OCEAN

WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW 25 OR 24

DEGREES CELSIUS. THIS INHIBITING FACTOR SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE

TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN THREE DAYS OR SO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/1500Z 15.5N 114.4W 30 KT

12HR VT 15/0000Z 16.0N 116.5W 35 KT

24HR VT 15/1200Z 16.5N 119.0W 35 KT

36HR VT 16/0000Z 17.0N 122.0W 30 KT

48HR VT 16/1200Z 17.6N 124.8W 30 KT

72HR VT 17/1200Z 18.0N 130.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

96HR VT 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

[Somerset Squall]

We have TD6, forming hours after TD5. The newest depression looks likely to become stronger than TD5 but as sea temperatures are marginal only modest strengthening is predicted, for now.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062007

1000 AM PDT SAT JUL 14 2007

FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF

DISTURBED WEATHER...LOCATED ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...HAS DEVELOPED A SURFACE CIRCULATION AND ENOUGH

DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD OR 280 DEGREES AT 10

KNOTS AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP TROPICAL EASTERLY FLOW. SINCE

THIS STEERING PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE...THE DEPRESSION IS

FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 5

DAYS.

THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG BUT...SEA SURFACE

TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL FOR THE CYCLONE TO STRENGTHEN.

THEREFORE...ONLY GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS INDICATED. THIS IS

CONSISTENT WITH BOTH THE SHIPS MODEL AND CLIMATOLOGY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/1700Z 11.2N 126.5W 25 KT

12HR VT 15/0000Z 11.5N 128.5W 30 KT

24HR VT 15/1200Z 12.0N 130.5W 35 KT

36HR VT 16/0000Z 12.5N 132.5W 40 KT

48HR VT 16/1200Z 13.0N 135.0W 45 KT

72HR VT 17/1200Z 13.5N 138.5W 50 KT

96HR VT 18/1200Z 14.0N 140.5W 55 KT

120HR VT 19/1200Z 14.5N 143.5W 55 KT

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[Somerset Squall]

Tropical Depression Five is now dissapating, but tropical depression six has strengthened to Tropical Storm Cosme after consolidating it's convection near the well defined centre.

TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 6

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062007

200 PM PDT SUN JUL 15 2007

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE CYCLONE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE

TODAY. THE ONCE BROAD CIRCULATION HAS BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED AND

THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION. OUTER BANDING

FEATURES SURROUND THE CENTER...BUT CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED DURING THE

LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. 1800 UTC DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE 3.0/45

KT FROM TAFB AND 2.5/35 KT FROM SAB. IN ADDITION....A 1500 UTC

QUIKSCAT PASS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION SHOWED

SEEMINGLY RELIABLE 30 KT WINDS...BUT WAS INCONCLUSIVE ABOUT

ANYTHING STRONGER. BASED ON THESE DATA...SIX-E HAS BEEN UPGRADED

TO TROPICAL STORM COSME WITH 35 KT WINDS...LEANING TOWARD THE LOWER

DVORAK ESTIMATES FOR NOW.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 305/7. THE STEERING MECHANISM

AND TRACK FORECAST REASONING HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THIS MORNING.

COSME IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD A

WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THEN CURVE MORE

TOWARD THE WEST ONCE THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN.

COSME SHOULD REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND IN A RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR

ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...ALLOWING FOR SOME STRENGTHENING

TO OCCUR. THEREAFTER...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS COSME

MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ONCE

AGAIN A CONSENSUS OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND HWRF GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/2100Z 12.7N 128.0W 35 KT

12HR VT 16/0600Z 13.3N 128.9W 45 KT

24HR VT 16/1800Z 14.0N 130.3W 45 KT

36HR VT 17/0600Z 14.5N 132.3W 45 KT

48HR VT 17/1800Z 14.7N 134.3W 40 KT

72HR VT 18/1800Z 15.0N 138.5W 40 KT

96HR VT 19/1800Z 16.0N 143.0W 35 KT

120HR VT 20/1800Z 17.5N 148.0W 30 KT

$$

FORECASTER MAINELLI

[Somerset Squall]

We now have our first hurricane of 2007.

HURRICANE COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 10

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062007

200 PM PDT MON JUL 16 2007

AFTER GOING THROUGH AN ORGANIZATIONAL LULL THIS MORNING...COSME HAS

RAMPED UP THIS AFTERNOON. A DIFFICULT TO DECIPHER 1434 UTC

QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED THAT PEAK WINDS WERE AROUND 60 KT AT THAT

TIME. SINCE THEN...THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED AND

COSME HAS A SMALL EYE WITH A WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND WRAPPING

FULLY AROUND THE CENTER. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB

ARE 65 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 65 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED AT 295/10. THE HURRICANE IS

BEING STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH...AND THIS STEERING

MECHANISM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT FASTER

AT DAYS THREE THROUGH FIVE...POSSIBLY DUE TO A STRONGER RIDGE THAT

THE MODELS ARE ANTICIPATING.

COSME'S INTENSITY COULD BE PEAKING...SINCE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE

ALREADY BELOW 26C AND ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FURTHER ALONG THE

PROJECTED TRACK. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST ALLOWS FOR SOME

STRENGTHENING IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...BUT THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENS THE

CYCLONE THROUGH DAY FIVE...AS A RESULT OF THE COOLER WATERS AND A

MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH AN INTENSITY

CONSENSUS OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...HWRF...AND SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

ONE BIT OF TRIVIA...ONLY FOUR OTHER EAST PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASONS

HAVE HAD THEIR FIRST HURRICANE FORM LATER THAN COSME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/2100Z 14.5N 131.4W 65 KT

12HR VT 17/0600Z 14.9N 132.9W 70 KT

24HR VT 17/1800Z 15.2N 134.9W 65 KT

36HR VT 18/0600Z 15.6N 137.3W 60 KT

48HR VT 18/1800Z 16.0N 139.7W 55 KT

72HR VT 19/1800Z 17.5N 145.5W 50 KT

96HR VT 20/1800Z 18.5N 151.5W 45 KT

120HR VT 21/1800Z 19.0N 157.5W 35 KT

$$

FORECASTER MAINELLI

[summer blizzard]

000

WTPZ41 KNHC 172058

TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 14

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062007

200 PM PDT TUE JUL 17 2007

THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT COSME HAS AN EXPOSED

TIGHTLY-SWIRLED CIRCULATION WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO

THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE. A BLEND OF DATA T-NUMBERS

AND CURRENT INTENSITY YIELDED 45 KT FROM TAFB AND 35 KT FROM SAB.

THE 6-HOUR AVERAGED AUTOMATED DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM

UW-CIMMS RANGED FROM 25 TO 30 KT. COMPROMISING ON THE ABOVE...THE

INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KT AND THIS COULD BE GENEROUS.

COSME IS CURRENTLY MOVING ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK AND A BIT

FASTER AT 275/12. THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM REMAINS THE RIDGE

TO THE NORTH...AND MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS THE RIDGE

THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS

REASONING AND TAKES COSME ON A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD

TRACK. IF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPIN DOWN... HOWEVER...A MORE

WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION COULD OCCUR.

COSME REMAINS OVER 25C WATERS AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EASTERLY

SHEAR. THE SHIPS MODEL DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE IN 36 TO 48 HOURS

DUE PRIMARILY TO PERSISTENCE...WHILE THE GFDL MAINTAINS IT AS A

TROPICAL STORM THROUGH DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A

BLEND OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS. IF THE CYCLONE SURVIVES THE NEXT

THREE DAYS AND STAYS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK...THE WATERS WARM

BACK UP WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR REGENERATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/2100Z 14.8N 135.4W 35 KT

12HR VT 18/0600Z 15.0N 137.2W 30 KT

24HR VT 18/1800Z 15.5N 139.7W 30 KT

36HR VT 19/0600Z 16.1N 142.6W 30 KT

48HR VT 19/1800Z 16.7N 145.7W 30 KT

72HR VT 20/1800Z 18.0N 152.0W 25 KT

96HR VT 21/1800Z 18.5N 156.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING

120HR VT 22/1800Z 19.0N 161.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$

FORECASTER MAINELLI

[Somerset Squall]

Some uncertainty in Cosme's future intensity, dissapation is no longer anticipated in the short term as Cosme retains some impressive convection around the centre despite shear and low sea temps, but in the long term, remarks are made that Cosme could still restrengthen or dissapate as it moves into warmer waters, the amount of shear will decide it's fate. Either way, this system will move into the central pacific.

TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 17

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062007

800 AM PDT WED JUL 18 2007

COSME CONTINUES TO GENERATE A STRONG CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SOUTHWEST OF

THE CENTER WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -80C. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES

OF 35 AND 45 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE UNCHANGED FROM 6 HR AGO...AND

BASED ON THIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/11. AT THE RISK OF SOUNDING LIKE A STUCK

RECORD...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST THINKING...AS

A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF COSME REMAINS THE

PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO

MAINTAIN THIS RIDGE THROUGH 5 DAYS...AND THIS SHOULD KEEP THE

CYCLONE ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS SHOWN BY ALL

GUIDANCE. THERE IS SOME SPREAD BETWEEN THE REGIONAL GFDL AND HWRF

MODELS...WHICH CALL MORE A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK CLOSER TO HAWAII...

AND THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH CALL FOR A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK. THE

NEW TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IN BETWEEN

THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS STILL SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC. IN THE SHORT

TERM...COSME SHOULD REACH GRADUALLY INCREASING SEA SURFACE

TEMPERATURES IN ABOUT 36 HR IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THIS

SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...THE

CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLOW WEAKENING THROUGH 72 HR. AFTER 72

HR...COSME SHOULD REACH SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER WATER AND QUITE

POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AS THE NOGAPS...UKMET...

AND ECMWF NOW SHOW STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES NEAR THE

FORECAST TRACK THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS. THE GFS...WHICH PROVIDES

THE SHEAR VALUES FOR THE SHIPS MODEL...FORECASTS A LESS HOSTILE

ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST

WILL BE THE SAME AS THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

HOWEVER...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AFTER 72 HR...AS BY

120 HR COSME COULD BE RE-INTENSIFYING OR COMPLETELY DISSIPATED

DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SHEAR IT ENCOUNTERS.

COSME WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO 140W BY 18Z...AND THE CENTRAL PACIFIC

HURRICANE CENTER WILL LIKELY ASSUME RESPONSIBILITY AFTER THE NEXT

ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/1500Z 15.3N 138.9W 35 KT

12HR VT 19/0000Z 15.4N 140.7W 35 KT

24HR VT 19/1200Z 15.9N 143.3W 30 KT

36HR VT 20/0000Z 16.4N 146.1W 30 KT

48HR VT 20/1200Z 16.8N 149.2W 30 KT

72HR VT 21/1200Z 17.5N 155.5W 30 KT

96HR VT 22/1200Z 18.0N 161.0W 25 KT

120HR VT 23/1200Z 18.0N 166.0W 25 KT

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

[Somerset Squall]

The Central Pacific Hurricane Centre now have responsibility of downgraded Tropical Depression Cosme. Despite being over cool waters, shear has eased and convection has flared near the center and cloud tops remain quite cold.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 20

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062007

1100 PM HST WED JUL 18 2007

COSME IS STILL SHOWING SIGNS OF LIFE.

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AN AREA OF COLD CLOUDS ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF COSME HAS EXPANDED AND COVERED THE CENTER. THAT MADE IT MORE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE CENTER ON CONVENTIONAL INFRARED IMAGERY...BUT MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM A 0513 DMSP PASS SHOWED THE CENTER NICELY. THESE DATA CAME IN AFTER WE REQUESTED THE FORECAST GUIDANCE SO WE SHIFTED THE 0600 UTC POSITION TO MATCH THE LOCATION FROM THE MICROWAVE PASS. THERE WAS ALSO A NICE QUIKSCAT PASS OVER COSME AT 0316 UTC. THE QUICKSCAT SHOWED 30 KT WINDS EXTENDING AS MUCH AS 90 NM NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.

A RIDGE TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO STEER COSME TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT...VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS MOVEMENT. THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN CONTINUING THE WEST NORTHWEST MOTION AND WE HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TRACK.

WHILE THE TRACK HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT...FORECASTING THE INTENSITY REMAINS MORE UNCERTAIN. COSME CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER FAIRLY COOL WATER...ABOUT 77 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT...BUT THE SYSTEM HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION. THE LATEST CIMSS VERTICAL PRODUCT SHOWED FAVORABLE SHEAR VALUES FOR THE FIRST 6 HOURS...THEN A RETURN TO NEUTRAL VALUES. WE KEPT THE INITIAL INTENSITY UNCHANGED AT 30 KT... BUT IF THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER PERSISTS OVER THE NEXT SIX HOURS IT IS LIKELY WE WOULD TAKE COSME BACK UP TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY ON THE NEXT BULLETIN. COSME SHOULD REMAIN OVER RELATIVELY COOL WATER WITH FAIRLY LOW SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...SO IF THE SYSTEM DOES LOSE ALL IT/S CONVECTION DURING THAT PERIOD...IT MAY WELL BECOME TOO WEAK TO HAVE MUCH CHANCE TO RE-INTENSIFY. IF COSME MANAGES TO KEEP SOME CONVECTION WHEN IT MOVES WEST OF 155W...IT WILL START MOVING BACK OVER WARMER WATER. IF SHEAR REMAINS WEAK ENOUGH AT THAT POINT...COSME MIGHT WELL RE-INTENSIFY. THESE UNCERTAINTIES KEEP OUR CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST RATHER LOW.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0900Z 15.4N 142.7W 30 KT

12HR VT 19/1800Z 15.9N 144.9W 30 KT

24HR VT 20/0600Z 16.4N 147.9W 30 KT

36HR VT 20/1800Z 17.0N 151.0W 30 KT

48HR VT 21/0600Z 17.5N 154.1W 30 KT

72HR VT 22/0600Z 18.1N 160.2W 30 KT

96HR VT 23/0600Z 18.4N 166.1W 25 KT

120HR VT 24/0600Z 18.4N 171.8W 20 KT...DISSIPATING

$$

FORECASTER HOUSTON/DONALDSON

[Somerset Squall]

Looks like tenacious Cosme could strengthen back to a tropical storm over the coming days, this storm certainly is fighting the unfavourable conditions it has presently (cool water and shear). Sea temps are set to rise along Cosme's track but shear is also forecast to persist, so confidence at the end of the forecast period is low.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 26

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062007

1100 AM HST FRI JUL 20 2007

COSME CONTINUES TO HAVE AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH THE 1605Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED THAT COSME HAD BECOME AN OPEN WAVE...THE APPEARANCE ON VISIBLE IMAGERY WOULD SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY BE AMBIGUITIES IN THE WIND DATA BASED ON ITS GFS FIRST- GUESS INPUT.

DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PHFO AND SAB WERE 2.5...WITH JTWC INDICATING 1.5. SUSTAINED WINDS AT BUOY 51004...ABOUT 60 NM NNW OF COSME...HAVE INCREASED TO 27 KT. THUS...WE WILL MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM AS A 30 KT DEPRESSION IN THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/15. COSME CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY THE LOW AND MID LEVEL EASTERLIES TO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS SIMPLY AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH REMAINS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE. NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...IF COSME HOLDS TOGETHER...IT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN GAINING LATITUDE A LITTLE FASTER AS IT REACHES THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MORE PROBLEMATIC. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 25.5C...BUT WILL BE GRADUALLY MOVING OVER WARMER WATER DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS. AFTER 36 HOURS... THE SSTS INCREASE MORE QUICKLY ALONG THE TRACK. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A TROUGH NORTHEAST OF HAWAII WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IMPINGING ON THE CYCLONE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH COSME...CONTINUING TO KEEP MODERATE SHEAR ON THE CYCLONE THROUGH THE FIRST 60 HOURS OR SO. THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR INTENSIFICATION BEYOND 60 HOURS...IF THE SYSTEM CAN SURVIVE THE SHEAR.

OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT BUOY 51004 HAS SPIKED AND IS NOW READING 13 FEET. FOR THIS REASON...WE HAVE INCLUDED A 90 NM RADIUS OF 12 FOOT SEAS IN THE FORECAST/ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/2100Z 16.6N 152.6W 30 KT

12HR VT 21/0600Z 16.7N 155.1W 30 KT

24HR VT 21/1800Z 17.0N 158.4W 30 KT

36HR VT 22/0600Z 17.2N 161.6W 30 KT

48HR VT 22/1800Z 17.6N 164.7W 30 KT

72HR VT 23/1800Z 18.2N 171.1W 35 KT

96HR VT 24/1800Z 19.4N 176.8W 35 KT

120HR VT 25/1800Z 20.3N 178.3E 35 KT

$$

FORECASTER R BALLARD

[summer blizzard]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_epac.shtml

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE

ARE CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER

DEFINED...AND THE LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL

DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE

WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

We have another potential storm in the eastern Pacific...

Could a moderator change the thread title to eastern pacific waves o something like that???

If Tropical Storm Cosme reaches Tropical Storm strength again, i will open a seperate thread, i am now keeping a close eye.

AT 1100 AM HST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 160.0 WEST OR ABOUT 380 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU AND ABOUT 630 MILES EAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

Slight strengthening over the next 24-48 hours expected, though if Cosme becomes any weaker, she will lose her status.

[Somerset Squall]

If Tropical Storm Cosme reaches Tropical Storm strength again, i will open a seperate thread, i am now keeping a close eye.

AT 1100 AM HST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 160.0 WEST OR ABOUT 380 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU AND ABOUT 630 MILES EAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

Slight strengthening over the next 24-48 hours expected, though if Cosme becomes any weaker, she will lose her status.

Indeed, I have found this storm very interesting to follow, it has battled cool sea temps and shear for a couple days now, it really has been a fighter- dissapation was called for 3 days ago but it's still fighting! If it survives much longer it'll end up crossing the date line into the West Pacific, who knows what could happen if it gets that far!

[Somerset Squall]

We have yet another new depression, TD7. It is being sheared at the moment which means strengthening in the short term is not anticipated, but should occur when the shear eases in the next couple of days as the sea temps are sufficiently warm.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072007

200 AM PDT SUN JUL 22 2007

IT HAS BEEN QUITE A CHALLENGE TO LOCATE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION

OVERNIGHT. USING CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS A 0546

UTC TRMM PASS...THE CENTER IS ROUGHLY ESTIMATED NEAR THE NORTHEAST

EDGE OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. THE DEPRESSION IS STILL IN ITS

ORGANIZATION STAGE...AND LACKS SIGNIFICANT BANDING FEATURES. BASED

ON THE CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL

REMAIN AT 25 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 11 KT.

THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF

DAYS AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED BY THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH.

THEREAFTER...MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT

IN A SLOWER MOTION AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ONCE THE RIDGE

WEAKENS. THE TIMING...HOWEVER...OF WHEN THIS NORTHWEST TURN WILL

OCCUR IS WHERE THE TRACK UNCERTAINTY LIES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK

FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FOLLOWS MOST

CLOSELY WITH THE HWRF AND UKMET SOLUTIONS...WHICH TURN THE CYCLONE

NORTHWESTWARD AFTER 48 HOURS.

A SHEAR ANALYSIS FROM UW-CIMSS INDICATES AROUND 20-25 KTS OF

NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY IMPINGING UPON THE CYCLONE...AS A

RESULT OF A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER MEXICO. THE SHEAR IS

EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WOULD SLOW

THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS....AND THEN RELAX SOMEWHAT. SEA

SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY 29C AND...BASED ON THE CURRENT

TRACK FORECAST...SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY WARM TO SUSTAIN THE

CYCLONE THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST

ANTICIPATES GRADUAL STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS THEN

LEVELS OFF. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH BOTH THE SHIPS AND HWRF

GUIDANCE...BUT IS ABOVE THE GFDL AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...WHICH

TURNS THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD SOONER INTO A HIGHER SHEARED

ENVIRONMENT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0900Z 12.8N 106.0W 25 KT

12HR VT 22/1800Z 13.2N 107.3W 30 KT

24HR VT 23/0600Z 13.6N 108.8W 35 KT

36HR VT 23/1800Z 13.8N 110.1W 40 KT

48HR VT 24/0600Z 14.2N 111.0W 45 KT

72HR VT 25/0600Z 15.5N 112.0W 50 KT

96HR VT 26/0600Z 17.5N 113.5W 50 KT

120HR VT 27/0600Z 20.0N 116.0W 50 KT

$$

FORECASTER MAINELLI

Cosme meanwhile, has had some strong convectional flaring near the center, and appears to still be a tropical depression this morning. Movement westwards towars the dateline is still anticipated and remarks about high heat content in the oceans beyond the dateline are made, and hints at possible reintensification are made. However, this is only if Cosme continues to keep it's intensity over another 2 or 3 unfavourable days.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 32

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062007

1100 PM HST SAT JUL 21 2007 COSME CONTINUES TO CHURN STEADILY WESTWARD OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN. EXCEPT FOR LAST EVENING...THIS SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED DEEP CONVECTION BRIEFLY AROUND DUSK SINCE IT MOVED INTO THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC. THE DURATION OF THESE CONVECTIVE FLARE UPS HAS USUALLY BEEN BRIEF...ON THE ORDER OF 4 TO 6 HOURS. THESE ACTIVE PERIODS HAVE BEEN TYPICALLY FOLLOWED BY LESS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. COSME HAS HAD A HISTORY OF MUCH LESS DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

ONCE AGAIN...COSME HAD SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...OR LLCC. THE ANVIL PRODUCED BY THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAS ALSO OBSCURED THE LLCC MAKING IT VERY DIFFICULT FOR THE SATELLITE FIX AGENCIES TO DETERMINE THE 0600 UTC POSITION. VISIBLE IMAGERY FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH INCLUDED A VERY BENEFICIAL RAPID SCAN OPERATION...SHOWED THE NEARLY COMPLETELY EXPOSED LLCC OF COSME. THE SHORT TERM TRACK FROM THESE SATELLITE IMAGES...PLUS 0337 UTC AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGERY PROVIDED BY NRL AND FNMOC...WERE USEFUL FOR EXTRAPOLATING A COUPLE OF HOURS TO ESTIMATE THE 0600Z CENTER LOCATION. THE CURRENT MOTION IS 270/15.

BASED ON THE ESTIMATED POSITION AT 0600 UTC...IT APPEARED THE DEEP CONVECTION MUST BE VERY CLOSE TO THE LLCC. THIS IS DESPITE THE UW-CIMMS ESTIMATE OF ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOWING VALUES OF AROUND 20 KT FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS MODEL INDICATES THERE IS A LARGE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 19N 172W. THE FLOW BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS CAUSING THIS STRONG SHEAR.

THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 2.0 FROM SAB AND PHFO...AND 1.0 FROM JTWC. UNFORTUNATELY...THE INNER CIRCULATION OF COSME WAS MISSED BY THE QUICKSCAT PASS A FEW HOURS AGO. THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE SYSTEM AT 30 KT.

THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY FOLLOWED THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE VERY CLOSELY THROUGH 48 HOURS. SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE BEYOND DAY 2...INCLUDING CARRYING THE SYSTEM FARTHER WEST OF THE DATELINE AS A DISSIPATING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. NOTE THAT IF COSME SURVIVES THE HOSTILE SHEARING THAT IS FORECAST TO BE MAINTAINED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT GETS MORE INTERESTING ACCORDING TO THE CIRA WEB SITE. COSME HAS PERSISTED DESPITE MANY THREATS TO ITS EXISTENCE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO THERE IS A CHANCE THAT IT COULD RE-INTENSIFY.

NOTE THAT THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CENTER OF COSME VERY CLOSE TO JOHNSTON ISLAND EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL DETERIORATION OF WEATHER AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS THERE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0900Z 16.5N 163.3W 30 KT

12HR VT 22/1800Z 16.6N 165.9W 30 KT

24HR VT 23/0600Z 16.8N 169.5W 30 KT

36HR VT 23/1800Z 17.1N 173.1W 30 KT

48HR VT 24/0600Z 17.6N 176.7W 30 KT

72HR VT 25/0600Z 19.1N 177.3E 25 KT...DISSIPATING

96HR VT 26/0600Z 20.6N 173.5E 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$

FORECASTER HOUSTON

[Somerset Squall]

Cosme is no longer qualifying to be a tropical cyclone, but it is being monitored for regeneration, which looks unlikely at the moment due to continued high shear.

TD7 this morning however, strengthened into Tropical Storm Dalila. The storm is still battling with shear, but this should ease in around 24 hours, where some strengthening is forecast until the system encounters cooler waters on it's northwesterly track.

TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072007

200 PM PDT MON JUL 23 2007

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT A TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT

CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITHIN A 20 TO 25 KT VERTICAL SHEAR

ENVIRONMENT. THE RATHER DISORGANIZED CIRCULATION CENTER IS EXPOSED

APPROXIMATELY 35 NM NORTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION....AND TO THE

WEST OF LINE OF DEEP CONVECTION SITUATED JUST OFF THE COAST OF

SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT

FROM SAB AND 35 KT FROM TAFB...WITH THE INITIAL INTENSITY SET AT A

GENEROUS 35 KT.

DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR

OVER THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALLOWING THE

CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. BEYOND 72 HOURS...DALILA IS

EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT SHOULD

INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE

FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE

SHIPS...GFDL...LGEM...AND THE HWRF...WHICH INDICATE A PEAK INTENSITY

OF 55 KT BY DAY 3...BEFORE A WEAKENING TREND COMMENCES.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 325/7...SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF

THE PREVIOUS MOTION. THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY REMAINS

UNCHANGED...WITH DALILA'S MOTION INFLUENCED BY A WEAK

MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH...EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD

FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. THE ECMWF AND THE GFDN CONTINUE

TO SUGGEST A STRONGER INFLUENCE FROM THE DEVELOPING WEAKNESS OVER

CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION THAN THE OTHER MODELS

AROUND MID-PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF

THE AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND THE SUPERENSEMBLE...WITH LESS

EMPHASIS ON THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED MODELS.

THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE 1312Z QUIKSCAT

OVERPASS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/2100Z 15.4N 109.2W 35 KT

12HR VT 24/0600Z 16.1N 109.9W 35 KT

24HR VT 24/1800Z 17.2N 110.7W 40 KT

36HR VT 25/0600Z 18.0N 111.4W 45 KT

48HR VT 25/1800Z 18.8N 112.1W 50 KT

72HR VT 26/1800Z 20.5N 114.0W 55 KT

96HR VT 27/1800Z 22.3N 116.3W 45 KT

120HR VT 28/1800Z 24.0N 119.0W 30 KT

$$

FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN