Eastern Pacific Tropical systems

[Somerset Squall]

It looks like if favourable conditions continue we may have TD10 in the next few days after just over a week of inactivity.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1000 PM PDT SUN AUG 26 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED

MILES SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR

FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT

COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER RHOME

[Somerset Squall]

Things looking up for increased activity after a quiet week or two.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

400 PM PDT TUE AUG 28 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR

MANZANILLO WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FOR SEVERAL

HUNDRED MILES HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER

THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES

SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL

WAVE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL

DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES

WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER RHOME

[Somerset Squall]

TD10 has formed in the East Pacific and has recently been upgraded to Tropical Storm Gil. However, this storm will be very shortlived because it will move over cooler waters tommorrow.

TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102007

200 PM PDT WED AUG 29 2007

THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE DURING THE DAY.

DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN QUITE INTENSE...THOUGH RECENTLY HAS WANED

A BIT. MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE

CENTER IS ON THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE THUNDERSTORM MASS. DVORAK

INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 AND 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB

RESPECTIVELY...BUT AMSU AND LOCAL OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE HIGHER.

THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM GIL...THE

SEVENTH STORM IN A RATHER QUIET EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON. A

LITTLE MORE INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE STORM MOVES OVER

COOLER WATERS TOMORROW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE

SHIPS/GFDL/HWRF MODELS.

THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE STORM HAS PICKED UP A LITTLE...NOW

ESTIMATED AT 285/10. THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER

THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH WOULD FORCE A MOTION MORE TO

THE WEST BY LATE TOMORROW. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT

ON THIS SCENARIO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE TO

THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND THE

FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/2100Z 19.7N 110.5W 35 KT

12HR VT 30/0600Z 20.1N 112.1W 40 KT

24HR VT 30/1800Z 20.4N 114.3W 40 KT

36HR VT 31/0600Z 20.5N 116.5W 35 KT

48HR VT 31/1800Z 20.2N 118.5W 30 KT

72HR VT 01/1800Z 19.5N 122.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

96HR VT 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE

[Cookie]

strange my tropical storm alart emails didnt pick this one up

[Somerset Squall]

strange my tropical storm alart emails didnt pick this one up

Might be because it formed pretty quickly? This storm isn't going to be much really though, conditions are not favourable on it's track.

[Cookie]

maybe, but since i signed up its been very gud at picking them up

[Somerset Squall]

Henriette anyone?

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1000 AM PDT THU AUG 30 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL

STORM GIL LOCATED ABOUT 340 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF

BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED

ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO IS BECOMING BETTER

ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING. IF THIS

TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. THIS

SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

Meanwhile, Gil has pretty much reached his peak and is expected to weaken under shear and lower sea temps starting now.

[Cookie]

can you remind me what was f again?

[January Snowstorm]

It looks like a very quite hurricane season is now likely

This is at odds at what was predicted by many scientists and senior met people.

It just goes to show the weather will do what it likes and the likelihood is no one will ever be able to accurately forecast beyond about 10 days.

All this talk aswell about a cold Winter is only hobwash. Nobody knows and what we do know is that the climate is rapidly warming. Cold Winter my eye pbly another warmest ever coming up

[Cookie]

ignore my last post, I just had look back through the thread and found what I was looking for.

[Somerset Squall]

TS Gil is now moving out of the sheared area and is over waters of 26C. Stable air will halt any real strengthening though, and Gil should become a remnant low in the next few days.

We also now have TD 11, running near the coast of Mexico, producing heavy rains over Acapulco. Strengthening is anticipated as shear is forecasted to relax and this system may even become a hurricane.

Edited August 31, 2007 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

TS Gil is now moving out of the sheared area and is over waters of 26C. Stable air will halt any real strengthening though, and Gil should become a remnant low in the next few days.

We also now have TD 11, running near the coast of Mexico, producing heavy rains over Acapulco. Strengthening is anticipated as shear is forecasted to relax and this system may even become a hurricane.

TD 11 is now Tropical Storm Henriette.

[Somerset Squall]

Gil is managing to maintain intensity at the moment although stable air will eventually kill the storm.

TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102007

200 PM PDT FRI AUG 31 2007

ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT GIL IS UNDERGOING ANOTHER

LULL IN DEEP CONVECTION...CONSISTENT WITH A STRONGLY DIURNAL CYCLE

IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. VISUAL DATA SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW

LEVEL CENTER WITH WELL ORGANIZED CLOUD LINES. AN SSM/I SATELLITE

PASS AT 1317Z WAS ALSO USED TO LOCATE THE CENTER...WHICH HAS BEEN

ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. DVORAK

INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 1800Z REMAIN AT 35 KT...SO WILL CONTINUE

WITH 35 KT AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. WITHOUT ANY OTHER SUPPORTING

DATA...THE WIND RADII REMAIN THE SAME AS WELL.

GIL IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY FOR SEVERAL MORE

HOURS. EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM

OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE T-NUMBER ESTIMATES ARE

LOWER THAN 12 HOURS AGO...THE DIURNAL PATTERN TO THE CONVECTION

SUGGESTS THEY WILL REBOUND TONIGHT...MATCHING THE CURRENT INTENSITY

VALUES ONCE AGAIN. BECAUSE THE FORECAST TRACK NEARLY PARALLELS THE

27C SST ISOTHERM...OCEAN TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN A NEUTRAL

INFLUENCE. GIL IS ENTRAINING STABLE STRATOCUMULUS AIR FROM ITS

WESTERN FLANK INTO THE CORE. ALL INDICATIONS ARE IT WILL EITHER

MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OR WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 3

DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE

PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION OF 270/9 IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...

AND THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED. TRACK GUIDANCE IS

IN GOOD AGREEMENT. GIL SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG A WESTWARD TRACK FOR

THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST

AS IT NEARS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. NONE

OF THE FORECAST AIDS ARE HINTING AT A RECURVATURE TRACK. ONCE GIL

WEAKENS TO A REMNANT LOW OVER COOLER WATERS...IT WILL BE STEERED

WESTWARD BY THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/2100Z 18.9N 118.4W 35 KT

12HR VT 01/0600Z 19.0N 120.1W 35 KT

24HR VT 01/1800Z 19.3N 122.5W 35 KT

36HR VT 02/0600Z 19.7N 124.7W 35 KT

48HR VT 02/1800Z 20.1N 126.7W 30 KT

72HR VT 03/1800Z 20.4N 131.0W 30 KT

96HR VT 04/1800Z 20.5N 135.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

120HR VT 05/1800Z 20.5N 139.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$

FORECASTER MUNDELL/BLAKE

Meanwhile, Henriette has strengthened over the last few hours and is now a 40kt tropical storm. More strengthening is anticipated with Henriette likely to become a hurricane as the center remains over very warm waters- despite northern portions of the storm coming into contact with land.

TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007

200 PM PDT FRI AUG 31 2007

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT HENRIETTE HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY

STRENGTHEN AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 40

KNOTS. ALTHOUGH A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS INTERACTING WITH

LAND...THE OCEAN IS WARM AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX.

THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING

AND HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY 36 HOURS. THIS

IS CONSISTENT WITH INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

HENRIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9

KNOTS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING NEAR

THE SOUTHWEST MEXICAN COAST AND ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH WOULD

BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE COAST. THE STEERING PATTERN HAS NOT

CHANGED. A PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN

UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO STEER HENRIETTE ON A GENERAL

WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST

BECOME UNCERTAIN SINCE THE STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN. MODELS ARE NOW

IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND MOST OF THEM BRING THE CYCLONE TO THE WEST

OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/2100Z 16.2N 101.0W 40 KT

12HR VT 01/0600Z 16.9N 102.3W 45 KT

24HR VT 01/1800Z 18.0N 104.0W 55 KT

36HR VT 02/0600Z 18.8N 105.5W 65 KT

48HR VT 02/1800Z 19.5N 107.0W 70 KT

72HR VT 03/1800Z 21.0N 110.0W 70 KT

96HR VT 04/1800Z 23.0N 112.0W 65 KT

120HR VT 05/1800Z 24.5N 113.5W 60 KT

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[Somerset Squall]

Gil has now weakened to a tropical depression and looking at the state of the convection I doubt it will qualify as a tropical cyclone much longer.

Henriette continues to strengthen and it's convection is very deep and covers a large area. Because of Henriette's size and proximity to land I think strengthening will be slow to occur and unless it moves away from the Mexican coast then it will struggle to become a hurricane IMO. It is, however, forecast to become a hurricane over the next couple days as it nears Baja Calafornia, so it may need watching then. It's worth noting that the heavy rains may cause life threatening landslides to coastal parts of Mexico over the coming days.

[Somerset Squall]

Gil lives to fight another day?

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

400 PM PDT SUN SEP 2 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL

STORM HENRIETTE LOCATED ABOUT 155 MILES WEST OF MANZANILLO

MEXICO.

THE REMNANT LOW OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL IS LOCATED ABOUT

925 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BROWN

[Somerset Squall]

A couple interesting areas to watch in regards to development in the East Pacific which really has been very quiet so far.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1000 AM PDT THU SEP 13 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH OF

MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUES WESTWARD WITH MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY.

ANY DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH

OF ACAPULCO. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE

NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Somerset Squall]

One of the disturbances has finally gained enough organisation to be designated TD12. The depression's future track is somewhat complicated, but as westward motion followed by a re-curve to the northeast is expected. The depression has 3 days to make use of a low shear, high sea temp environment before both conditions become less favourable after this time. It is possible if the storm gets it's act together that it might become a hurricane before 72hrs.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122007

1000 AM PDT TUE SEP 18 2007

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED

WEATHER SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER

ORGANIZED...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 25 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND A

QUIKSCAT OVERPASS NEAR 1330Z SUGGESTED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 25-30 KT.

THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 25 KT.

THE CENTER POSITION IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...WITH QUIKSCAT SUGGESTING

A POSITION SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL

SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS YIELDS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN MOTION OF

290/11. THE DEPRESSION IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF OF A MID-LEVEL

RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO. THE DYNAMICAL

MODELS FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO BREAK DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS AS A

LARGE DEEP-LAYER LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD OVER CALIFORNIA. THIS SHOULD

ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD BY

THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE LOW DOES NOT MOVE

FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR ACCELERATION AFTER RECURVATURE...WITH THE GFDL

AND HWRF MODELS SHOWING A SLOW EASTWARD MOTION. THE FORECAST TRACK

CALLS FOR RECURVATURE AND DECELERATION DURING THE FORECAST

PERIOD...WITH A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY MOTION THAN CALLED FOR BY THE

GFDL AND HWRF.

THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS TO

CONTINUE FOR 48-72 HR...FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE

SHEAR. COMBINED WITH THE DEPRESSION MOVING OVER COOLER WATER AT

ABOUT 72 HR...THIS EVOLUTION WOULD SUGGEST GRADUAL STRENGTHENING

THROUGH 72 HR FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN

BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. THE GFDL CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM

TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE WEAKENING...SO THERE IS A CHANCE

IT COULD BECOME STRONGER THAN FORECAST BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/1700Z 13.4N 107.9W 25 KT

12HR VT 19/0000Z 13.9N 109.0W 30 KT

24HR VT 19/1200Z 14.7N 111.2W 35 KT

36HR VT 20/0000Z 15.5N 112.8W 40 KT

48HR VT 20/1200Z 16.4N 114.1W 45 KT

72HR VT 21/1200Z 18.5N 115.0W 50 KT

96HR VT 22/1200Z 20.0N 114.5W 40 KT

120HR VT 23/1200Z 21.0N 113.0W 30 KT

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

Edited September 18, 2007 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

TD12 has strengthened to Tropical Storm Ivo. Ivo is looking very impressive this morning with an initial intensity of 50 kts. Ivo looks like he will become a hurricane before conditions become more hostile in about 48 hours time.

TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122007

200 AM PDT WED SEP 19 2007

IVO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT EXHIBITS A FAIRLY SYMMETRIC CDO

AND WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN. THE CURRENT

INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES

FROM TAFB AND SAB. MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING INNER CORE

BUT NO EYE...YET. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL

REMAIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HIGH OCEANIC

HEAT CONTENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THUS THE OFFICIAL

INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR

TWO. THIS IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GFDL MODEL

PREDICTION. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE

OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH 72 HOURS. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...AN INCREASE

IN WESTERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY TO CAUSE SOME WEAKENING AND THE

OFFICIAL FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS OUTPUT IN THE LATTER

PART OF THE PERIOD. IF IVO MOVES FARTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED IT

WOULD ENCOUNTER STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES...AND WOULD MOST

LIKELY WEAKEN FASTER THAN INDICATED HERE.

THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT SLOWING IN THE ESTIMATED MOTION...WHICH IS

NOW ABOUT 300/9. DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS...IVO IS FORECAST TO

MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL

ANTICYCLONE. BEYOND THAT TIME FRAME...GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A

STRONG MID- TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD AND

SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA

CALIFORNIA. IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL

TRACK MODELS TURN IVO NORTHEASTWARD OR...IN THE CASE OF THE GFDL

MODEL... EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...IN 3 TO 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL

FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS

CLOSE TO THE GUNA DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS. AS NOTED

EARLIER...THE TRACK FORECAST AT 3-5 DAYS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN

BECAUSE THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE CREDIBLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE

AT THAT TIME RANGE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0900Z 14.7N 110.0W 50 KT

12HR VT 19/1800Z 15.4N 111.2W 55 KT

24HR VT 20/0600Z 16.4N 112.5W 60 KT

36HR VT 20/1800Z 17.3N 113.4W 65 KT

48HR VT 21/0600Z 18.2N 113.8W 65 KT

72HR VT 22/0600Z 20.0N 113.5W 60 KT

96HR VT 23/0600Z 21.0N 112.5W 55 KT

120HR VT 24/0600Z 21.5N 112.0W 50 KT

$$

FORECASTER PASCH

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...nds/wg9visX.GIF

The disturbance to the far west of Ivo is also becoming better organised and we should see another tropical depression out of this one.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST

OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF

ORGANIZATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL

DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT

COUPLE OF DAYS.

The East Pacific looks like waking up for a little bit. It's worth noting that this season has been quiet so far, very quiet compared to the active season last year.

[Somerset Squall]

We now have TD13 to accompany Tropical Storm Ivo. Conditions are not that favourable so significant strengthening is not anticipated.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132007

1000 AM PDT WED SEP 19 2007

EVEN THOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS ARE BEGINNING TO WARM IN INFRARED

SATELLITE IMAGERY....VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF

DISTURBED WEATHER SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL

DEPRESSION. THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED WITHIN THE

EASTERN PORTION OF THE CONVECTION. DATA FROM A RECENT QUIKSCAT

PASS AND A DVORAK INTENSITY FROM SAB SUPPORT A 30 KT INITIAL

INTENSITY.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE

TO THE NORTH. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO ERODE DURING THE NEXT DAY

OR SO AS A LARGE MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE

WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAVE THE

DEPRESSION IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. AFTER 48

HOURS...THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH WILL DIG FAR

ENOUGH SOUTH TO INDUCE A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION. MUCH OF THE

GUIDANCE FORECAST AN ANTICYCLONIC LOOP OF THE CYCLONE...HOWEVER THE

OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHOW A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION...WITH A TURN TO

THE NORTHEAST AFTER 48 HOURS.

FUTURE INTENSIFICATION OF THE DEPRESSION LOOKS RATHER BLEAK. THE

INTENSITY FORECAST ALLOWS FOR STRENGTHENING TO A MINIMAL TROPICAL

STORM IN 24 HOURS...ASSUMING THAT THE CYCLONE DOES NOT INGEST TOO

MUCH OF THE STABLE AIR TO THE NORTH. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE WILL

BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATER...AND SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED

TO INCREASE BEYOND 48 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/1700Z 17.1N 127.9W 30 KT

12HR VT 20/0000Z 17.2N 128.5W 30 KT

24HR VT 20/1200Z 17.2N 129.2W 35 KT

36HR VT 21/0000Z 17.2N 129.9W 35 KT

48HR VT 21/1200Z 17.5N 129.9W 30 KT

72HR VT 22/1200Z 18.5N 128.6W 25 KT

96HR VT 23/1200Z 19.5N 127.5W 25 KT

120HR VT 24/1200Z 20.5N 126.0W 25 KT

$$

FORECASTER BROWN

[Somerset Squall]

Ivo is nearly a hurricane, with the initial intensity set at 60 kts. Ivo still has 24-36 hours to strengthen before shear could weaken the system, could being the operative word. Ivo may escape the shear later in the forecast period.

TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122007

200 PM PDT WED SEP 19 2007

IVO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN..WITH INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING

AROUND THE CENTER AND THE POSSIBLE BEGINNING OF EYE FORMATION IN

BOTH VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES

ARE 65 KT FROM SAB AND 55 KT FROM TAFB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS

INCREASED TO 60 KT...AND IF IVO IS NOT YET A HURRICANE IT SHOULD

BECOME ONE SHORTLY. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO THE SOUTHWEST

AND NORTHEAST AND FAIR TO POOR ELSEWHERE.

THE STORM HAS MOVED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...

WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 290/9. IVO REMAINS SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL

RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO. THE LARGE-SCALE

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP-LAYER LOW CURRENTLY MOVING

SOUTHWARD INTO CALIFORNIA WILL DROP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BREAK THE

RIDGE NORTH OF IVO...ALLOWING THE STORM TO RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST

DURING THE NEXT 48-96 HR. HOWEVER...IT STILL APPEARS THE LOW WILL

NOT COME FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO ACCELERATE THE STORM NORTHEASTWARD...

SO THE MOTION AFTER RECURVATURE IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW.

ADDITIONALLY...THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE RIDGE TO RE-BUILD

EAST OF IVO IN 96-120 HR...AND THEY RESPOND TO THIS BY SHOWING A

MORE NORTHWARD MOTION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NEW

FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT DURING THE FIRST

PART OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND A

LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AT THE END OF THE FORECAST

DUE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE. IT IS IN BEST OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH

THE CCON CONSENSUS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE ECMWF MODEL DOES

NOT FORECAST IVO TO RECURVE...AS IT TRAPS THE STORM SOUTH OF THE

RE-BUILDING RIDGE.

IVO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT

FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR...SO CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST

IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE

LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON HOW MUCH WIND SHEAR IVO

WILL ENCOUNTER. THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST INCREASING SHEAR...

WHILE THE UKMET AND THE NOGAPS FORECAST A MORE FAVORABLE

ENVIRONMENT. BECAUSE IT IS NOT CLEAR WHICH MODEL IS ON THE RIGHT

TRACK...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS

PACKAGE. THE TWO ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE

REMAIN. FIRST...THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS IVO OVER WARMER WATER BY

120 HR...AND IF THE SHEAR IS LIGHT IVO COULD BE STRONGER THAN

FORECAST AT THAT TIME. SECOND...IF IVO TRACKS NORTH OF THE

FORECAST TRACK...IT WOULD LIKELY ENCOUNTER BOTH STRONGER SHEAR AND

COLDER WATER...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A FASTER WEAKENING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/2100Z 15.4N 111.9W 60 KT

12HR VT 20/0600Z 16.0N 113.0W 70 KT

24HR VT 20/1800Z 16.8N 113.7W 75 KT

36HR VT 21/0600Z 17.9N 114.0W 75 KT

48HR VT 21/1800Z 18.9N 113.7W 75 KT

72HR VT 22/1800Z 21.0N 112.5W 70 KT

96HR VT 23/1800Z 22.0N 111.5W 60 KT

120HR VT 24/1800Z 23.0N 109.5W 55 KT

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

[Somerset Squall]

Ivo has become a hurricane overnight, and is looking pretty decent on satellite imagery this morning. Additional strengthening in favourable conditions are anticipated in the next 24 hours. If Ivo moves south of the shear after this time period, Ivo may be stonger than what the NHC is currently predicting. The storm is predicted to make landfall on the southern tip of Baja Calafornia so it may need watching over te next couple of days.

HURRICANE IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122007

200 AM PDT THU SEP 20 2007

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT IVO HAS MAINTAINED ITS

DEEP CONVECTION AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW....AND RECENT MICROWAVE

PASSES FROM BOTH SSM/I AND AMSU-B INDICATE AN EYE FEATURE. AN

EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0136 UTC HAD MAXIMUM WIND VECTORS OF AT

LEAST 55 KT. THESE VECTORS WERE LIKELY ATTENUATED BY HEAVY

RAIN...SO THE ACTUAL MAXIMUM WINDS WERE PROBABLY CLOSER TO 65 KT.

DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT 4.0 OR 65

KT...WHICH IS USED FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE 34- AND 50-KT

WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT PASS.

IVO IS MOVING A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND THE

INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED AT 330/6. THE FORWARD MOTION HAS

SLOWED AS THE HURRICANE MAKES ITS WAY AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY

OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS ANTICIPATED

FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. THEREAFTER A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS

EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD NEAR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA-NORTHERN

BAJA CALIFORNIA BORDER. THIS STEERING FEATURE SHOULD CREATE A MORE

NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IN THE LATER PERIODS.

SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS AND HWRF SUGGEST THAT

IVO WILL WEAKEN AND TAKE A MORE NORTHWARD OR EVEN NORTHWESTWARD

TRACK NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS

CLOSER TO THE GFDL SCENARIO OF A STRONGER SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MORE

RESPONSIVE TO THE TROUGH. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL

FORECAST.

THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ADDITIONAL

STRENGTHENING...WITH WARM WATERS AND RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR. BOTH OF

THESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PREVAIL

FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IN THE LATER

PERIODS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. IF IVO TRACKS SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF

OUR FORECAST...STRONGER SHEAR COULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN

SIGNIFICANTLY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT ABOVE THE

CONSENSUS TECHNIQUE...ICON...BUT A LITTLE BELOW THE GFDL.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE

PROGRESS OF IVO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON

THE EXACT TRACK AT 4 AND 5 DAYS BECAUSE THERE ARE LARGE

UNCERTAINTIES AT THESE FORECAST PERIODS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0900Z 16.5N 112.5W 65 KT

12HR VT 20/1800Z 17.3N 113.0W 70 KT

24HR VT 21/0600Z 18.3N 113.3W 75 KT

36HR VT 21/1800Z 19.3N 113.1W 75 KT

48HR VT 22/0600Z 20.3N 112.7W 70 KT

72HR VT 23/0600Z 22.0N 111.5W 65 KT

96HR VT 24/0600Z 23.5N 110.5W 55 KT

120HR VT 25/0600Z 25.5N 109.5W 50 KT

$$

FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH

TD13 hasn't strengthened at all, and, unlike Ivo, looks very unimpressive. Cool waters and easterly shear have reduced the depression to a ill defined center with scant remaining convection. The depression could dissapte today but the NHC hold onto to it until tommorrow in anticipation of a convectional flare up which may prelong the life of the system.

[Cookie]

Hurricane IVO is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Mexico

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 30% in about 69 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

San Lucas (22.9 N, 109.9 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 30% in about 69 hours

[Somerset Squall]

TD13 has degenerated into a remnant low and is not expected to redevelop despite increased convection this morning due to unfavourable wind shear.

Ivo is still a hurricane, currently at 70 kts. It is moving north-northeastwards and a Baja Calafornia landfall is still being forecast but this is highly uncertain because the models offer a range of solutions. Ivo generally is looking more ragged this morning as shear has increased, so a gradual weakening is forecast. The NHC mention that Ivo could weaken quicker or slower than forecast, as once again the models disagree.

HURRICANE IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122007

200 AM PDT FRI SEP 21 2007

THE EYE OF IVO MADE AN APPEARANCE IN INFRARED IMAGERY AROUND 0600

UTC...AND THEN VERY QUICKLY DISAPPEARED. SINCE THEN...THE OVERALL

SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS BECOME RAGGED...WITH EVIDENCE OF WESTERLY

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW ON THE WEST SIDE.

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND

THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 70 KT.

IVO HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD SPEED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH THE

MOTION ESTIMATED AT 340/7. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE

UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST WEST OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

WITH WHAT IS BECOMING A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE EAST OF IVO.

THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE LOW SHOULD BEGIN MOVING

NORTHEASTWARD IN 24-36 HR. HOWEVER...THAT IS ABOUT ALL THEY AGREE

ON...AS THEY HAVE A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS FOR THE TRACK OF IVO.

THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FORECAST IVO TO REACH 20N...THEN MOVE

SOUTHWARD AND DISSIPATE. THE GFS AND GFDL FORECAST IVO TO MOVE

SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND STALL BEFORE REACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE

UKMET...HWRF...AND NOGAPS...MOVE IVO NORTHWARD ACROSS BAJA...WITH

THE UKMET CALLING FOR LANDFALL IN LESS THAN 48 HR. GIVEN THE

UNCERTAINTY...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF

THE PREVIOUS TRACK...CALLING FOR THE CENTER OF IVO TO REACH BAJA IN

72-96 HR. HOPEFULLY SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS WILL COME INTO BETTER

AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST FORWARD SPEED.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THERE IS MORE WESTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING

IVO THAN CURRENTLY ANALYZED BY THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS OR SHIPS

MODEL. THE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS DRY AIR WEST OF THE HURRICANE THAT

THE SHEAR MAY ADVECT INTO THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD OVER

COOLER WATERS. THE GFS AND UKMET FORECAST FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL

WINDS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...WITH THE ECMWF AND NOGAPS SHOWING

A MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS A SLOW

WEAKENING AFTER 24 HR...WHILE THE HWRF AND THE GFDL SHOW A STRONGER

SYSTEM WITH NO APPRECIABLE WEAKENING UNTIL AFTER 60 HR. GIVEN THE

CURRENT SHEAR...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL GO WITH THE SLOW DECAY

FROM THE SHIPS MODEL AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

GIVEN THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY PRESENT IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT

THIS TIME...INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CLOSELY

MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IVO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/0900Z 19.0N 113.5W 70 KT

12HR VT 21/1800Z 19.9N 113.5W 70 KT

24HR VT 22/0600Z 20.8N 113.2W 70 KT

36HR VT 22/1800Z 21.5N 112.9W 65 KT

48HR VT 23/0600Z 22.3N 112.5W 60 KT

72HR VT 24/0600Z 24.0N 112.0W 55 KT

96HR VT 25/0600Z 25.5N 111.5W 40 KT...INLAND

120HR VT 26/0600Z 27.0N 111.5W 30 KT...OVER WATER

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

[mettalfabrik]

IVO latest

WTPZ22 KNHC 211453

TCMEP2

HURRICANE IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122007

1500 UTC FRI SEP 21 2007

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS

OF IVO.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 113.4W AT 21/1500Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.

64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.

50 KT....... 60NE 30SE 10SW 25NW.

34 KT....... 75NE 65SE 30SW 60NW.

12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 90SE 75SW 60NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 113.4W AT 21/1500Z

AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 113.6W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 20.4N 113.4W

MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.

34 KT... 75NE 75SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.3N 113.1W

MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.

34 KT... 75NE 75SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.1N 112.8W

MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.

34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 23.0N 112.5W

MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.

34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 24.5N 112.0W

MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 26.0N 111.5W...INLAND

MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 27.5N 111.5W

MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 113.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$

FORECASTER MAINELLI

[Cookie]

Hurricane IVO is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Mexico

probability for TS is 40% in about 45 hours