Climate change on Mars?

[HighPressure]

I am not going to jump straight in and make an assumption here but as a bit of a sceptic on the AGW issue, I do have to ask:

I am not sure if its a generally accepted fact but according to what I have read the Martian climate is warming almost exactly the same extent as on earth. This cannot be anything other than natural and would have to be associated with solar energy. Could it not be argued that only the difference in warming between earth and Mars can be attributed to factors other than natural?

[Red Raven]

Can you name some sources for the claim, ive not heard any such theories.

ta very much

[Devonian]

I am not going to jump straight in and make an assumption here but as a bit of a sceptic on the AGW issue, I do have to ask:

I am not sure if its a generally accepted fact but according to what I have read the Martian climate is warming almost exactly the same extent as on earth. This cannot be anything other than natural and would have to be associated with solar energy. Could it not be argued that only the difference in warming between earth and Mars can be attributed to factors other than natural?

What about Mercury, or Venus, why aren't they warming as well if it's solar energy causing our warming? Where is the evidence of global warming on Mars?

[Polar Continental]

GW on Mars

[jethro]

Just to add to the confusion, seems Mars and us here on Earth are not alone in the warming stakes. AGW account for all this too?

http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/mars...age_031208.html

http://www.usatoday.com/tech/science/space...htm?POE=TECISVA

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2007/2006GL028764.shtml

http://www.scienceagogo.com/news/199805260...trunc_sys.shtml

http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/plut...ing_021009.html

[HighPressure]

Can you name some sources for the claim, ive not heard any such theories.

ta very much

I am on a learning curve so I just pose the question, my interest was stirred when I heard Patrick Moore talk about Mars so I did some more reading. Obviously a lot of the data is via NASA but then they are the guys with the space crafts up there. If its not true and these people are wrong then tell me so?

[Filski]

First up, how long have we been observing these planets and how much do we know about their climates. Pluto in particular has barely completed 2 orbits of the sun yet we are drawing conclusions about it's climate? It has a large moon, could not the tidal forces in the planet be causing the warming?

2ndly we have at most a dozen robots in place observing just one of these, far less around the rest. Compare this to the thousands of staions on earth gathering data.

On Mars in particular the changes are easily explained by changes in surface reflectivity (much like the threats facing our icecaps) due to the vast dust storms changing the surface.

Just as an aside on Mars, I've always had my doubts about claims of water shaping some of the reported features. Dust carried at high speed in winds can exhibit fluid characteristics and cause similar erosion. I expect that we will find that there was far less water flowing across the surface than is being discussed...

[Devonian]

First up, how long have we been observing these planets and how much do we know about their climates. Pluto in particular has barely completed 2 orbits of the sun yet we are drawing conclusions about it's climate? It has a large moon, could not the tidal forces in the planet be causing the warming?

2ndly we have at most a dozen robots in place observing just one of these, far less around the rest. Compare this to the thousands of staions on earth gathering data.

On Mars in particular the changes are easily explained by changes in surface reflectivity (much like the threats facing our icecaps) due to the vast dust storms changing the surface.

Just as an aside on Mars, I've always had my doubts about claims of water shaping some of the reported features. Dust carried at high speed in winds can exhibit fluid characteristics and cause similar erosion. I expect that we will find that there was far less water flowing across the surface than is being discussed...

That's well reasoned imo - not that that often counts

[jethro]

That's well reasoned imo - not that that often counts

I trust NASA to have "reasoned" their data or at least to know a damn sight more than I do.

[Devonian]

I trust NASA to have "reasoned" their data or at least to know a damn sight more than I do.

I expect they have, but I don't think they are claiming there is global warming on Mars?

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Pluto in particular has barely completed 2 orbits of the sun yet we are drawing conclusions about it's climate

Pluto was discovered back in 1930, has an orbital period of 248 years, is very very small, and is a very very long way away, so anyone who uses this to back up their scepticism of AGW is, surely, nuts.

I concede Mars might well be more relevent.

[Devonian]

Just to add to the confusion, seems Mars and us here on Earth are not alone in the warming stakes. AGW account for all this too?

http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/mars...age_031208.html

http://www.usatoday.com/tech/science/space...htm?POE=TECISVA

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2007/2006GL028764.shtml

http://www.scienceagogo.com/news/199805260...trunc_sys.shtml

http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/plut...ing_021009.html

Humm, AGW is surely just a Earth phenomena of our doing?

I thought the claim is that the Sun is warming some (not all) of the other planets (how the Sun selects which of the object orbiting it is to warm I simply don't know ) so that the claim is the Sun may also be the reason for our warming. Imo, it's a claim that simply doesn't add up.

[noggin]

Just to add to the confusion, seems Mars and us here on Earth are not alone in the warming stakes. AGW account for all this too?

Nice bundle of links there, Jethro. I have seen other sites too where this warming of other planets is reported. I am quite frankly at a loss to understand how "warming" can be caused by anything other than our Sun. It is, after all, the very thing around which our solar system revolves, is it not ( )? and without it, there would be no life, I presume.

It's power is so incomprehensibly and incalculably huge that, IMVHO, there really can be no other cause. It is the Sun wot is doin' it and the increase in heat is what is causing the increase in pollution levels.

That is what I think and I'm sticking with it!

If I may add a sort of analogy, which I sincerely hope does not offend anyone........if a living animal dies because of a weak heart, it would be like saying that the creature died because, say, it had stopped eating. Well, yes, it had stopped eating....that is quite correct, but the actual cause of the death was the weak heart.

Does anyone follow my drift here or do I just sound like a right idiot?

[Osbourne One-Nil]

But as Devonian says, (and from our very very limited knowledge) not all planets appear to be warming, and how do we know wnywhere's warming anyway? What time scale are we talking about compared to our data for the Earth?

[Devonian]

Nice bundle of links there, Jethro. I have seen other sites too where this warming of other planets is reported. I am quite frankly at a loss to understand how "warming" can be caused by anything other than our Sun. It is, after all, the very thing around which our solar system revolves, is it not ( )? and without it, there would be no life, I presume.

It's power is so incomprehensibly and incalculably huge that, IMVHO, there really can be no other cause. It is the Sun wot is doin' it and the increase in heat is what is causing the increase in pollution levels.

That is what I think and I'm sticking with it!

If I may add a sort of analogy, which I sincerely hope does not offend anyone........if a living animal dies because of a weak heart, it would be like saying that the creature died because, say, it had stopped eating. Well, yes, it had stopped eating....that is quite correct, but the actual cause of the death was the weak heart.

Does anyone follow my drift here or do I just sound like a right idiot?

Read the links, they're either old, debunked (see this) or talk about local changes to planets, redistributions of energy. I challenge anyone here to show me where in those link it's claimed the Sun has warmed.

I'd love sceptics to come up with some read meat for us to chew not the usual load of old gristle.

Edited June 6, 2007 by Devonian

[jethro]

Just a quickie before I head off out..

My stance is and always has been there is more at play here than just us; hence my exploring things like the decline in the magnetic field etc. To conclude that we as a species can over-ride all the mammoth drivers of our climate is absurd. Time and again the IPCC predictions are coming true a great deal earlier than any scientist ever thought possible, sometimes other unexpected effects are being observed. I don't believe this is because the science is inaccurate but I do think their calculations are amiss due to some other natural driver we know little about. Observed warming on other planets which can, in no way be caused by us or Co2, are an important part of the puzzle if we ever hope to understand fully the workings of our own planet. We are afterall only a small part of a very big system.

And Noggin, no, you're not daft.

Read the links, they're either old, debunked (see this) or talk about local changes to planets, redistributions of energy. I challenge anyone here to show me where in those link it's claimed the Sun has warmed.

I'd love sceptics to come up with some read meat for us to chew not the usual load of old gristle.

And I'd love people to explore other ideas with an open mind before regurgitating the same old same old.

[Devonian]

Just a quickie before I head off out..

My stance is and always has been there is more at play here than just us; hence my exploring things like the decline in the magnetic field etc. To conclude that we as a species can over-ride all the mammoth drivers of our climate is absurd.

I totally disagree - you simply can't rule our activities out as a climate effect, perhaps a major one, especially when the have such obvious effects planet wide.

Time and again the IPCC predictions are coming true a great deal earlier than any scientist ever thought possible, sometimes other unexpected effects are being observed. I don't believe this is because the science is inaccurate but I do think their calculations are amiss due to some other natural driver we know little about. Observed warming on other planets which can, in no way be caused by us or Co2, are an important part of the puzzle if we ever hope to understand fully the workings of our own planet. We are afterall only a small part of a very big system.

And Noggin, no, you're not daft.

And I'd love people to explore other ideas with an open mind before regurgitating the same old same old.

That's one way of saying there is no mention of the Sun

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Hold on Jethro...I've heard time and time again how we can't really know how much we're warming on Earth because our records only go back so far. Yet we're expected to take seriously data of a few years for lumps of rock tens or hundreds of millions...even billions of miles away? Rocks which are resolved at extremely low resolution using brand new technology, with absolutely nothing as a base line?

Ok.

[Guest Daniel]

I am not going to jump straight in and make an assumption here but as a bit of a sceptic on the AGW issue, I do have to ask:

I am not sure if its a generally accepted fact but according to what I have read the Martian climate is warming almost exactly the same extent as on earth. This cannot be anything other than natural and would have to be associated with solar energy. Could it not be argued that only the difference in warming between earth and Mars can be attributed to factors other than natural?

Of course this proves that most warming is natural and with the sun forcast to go quite soon we should see a return to glbal cooling and even a new mini iceage. the rivers of England will once again freeze as our winters will become colder in the comming years.

[Devonian]

Of course this proves that most warming is natural and with the sun forcast to go quite soon we should see a return to glbal cooling and even a new mini iceage. the rivers of England will once again freeze as our winters will become colder in the comming years.

Morning Daniel Same old record eh . Oh, and how some link to reports that say nothing about the Sun as a cause of localised warmings energy redistributions elsewhere in the solar system 'prove' it's the Sun beats me.

Hold on Jethro...I've heard time and time again how we can't really know how much we're warming on Earth because our records only go back so far. Yet we're expected to take seriously data of a few years for lumps of rock tens or hundreds of millions...even billions of miles away? Rocks which are resolved at extremely low resolution using brand new technology, with absolutely nothing as a base line?

Ok.

Spot on OON.

[The Penguin]

. . . (how the Sun selects which of the object orbiting it is to warm I simply don't know) . . .

But then there is so much you don't know, isn't there? Just like the rest of us.

The fact that other planets are heating up is interesting at the very least. The fact that we don't know why some are and some aren't is entirely unsurprising in relation to our current scientific limitations.

I am quite frankly at a loss to understand how "warming" can be caused by anything other than our Sun.

To be fair, there are two possible causes of global warming. One is greater input of energy from the sun. The other is less energy being lost from the Earth. And I suppose it's also just possible that the Earth itself is producing an additional energy output.

[Devonian]

But then there is so much you don't know, isn't there? Just like the rest of us.

The fact that other planets are heating up is interesting at the very least. The fact that we don't know why some are and some aren't is entirely unsurprising in relation to our current scientific limitations.

But, read the links... It's not claimed other planets are heating up, rather that existing energy (heat if you like) is being redistributed - probably by changes on or within the planets themselves. Again, I'll ask anyone to show me where the Sun is blamed, and people should 'OON' (ie Occam) the evidence.

To be fair, there are two possible causes of global warming. One is greater input of energy from the sun. The other is less energy being lost from the Earth. And I suppose it's also just possible that the Earth itself is producing an additional energy output.

Or (though of course perhaps you'll rule this out) that adding GT of a potent ghg to the atmosphere alters it's radiative properties to the extent energy (LW) takes longer to escape and thus the lower layer of the atmosphere warm with knock on feedback warming? Nah, can't be that

[Weather-history]

Hasn't the Sun been more active recently than it has been in the last 1000 years?

[Filski]

Jethro - We don't 'overide' all the other factors. Our effect enhances the rest.

Take for example the chart that matches solar output against temperature. In many cases it matches very closely (dare I say responsible for perhaps 95% of temperature change as a figure pulled from the air). However as we know the temp record for the last few years does not follow the solar input any longer and the error has increased.

When you add the input from AGW the accuracy increases. Which shows that we do not expect AGW to account for all of the effect, just the the little bit departs from natural cycles. The question that remains is how much further will climate changes depart from natural cycles? A little? A lot? What other natural cycles will shift and create feedbacks that minimise of enhance the effects?

Do not discount our effect because it is small. It is important if we are to accurately model future climate.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Humm, AGW is surely just a Earth phenomena of our doing?

I thought the claim is that the Sun is warming some (not all) of the other planets (how the Sun selects which of the object orbiting it is to warm I simply don't know ) so that the claim is the Sun may also be the reason for our warming. Imo, it's a claim that simply doesn't add up.

The sun isn't being selective, very dismissive Devonian and I am surprised. Do you think planets rotate aound the sun eqi-distance all the time? Do you think the sun remains constant all the time? Do you think planets remain as constants and have no axis changes. We know there are solar minimas [Wolf, Dalton, Maunder etc], we know there are Milankovitch cycles, magnetic reversals etc etc. Its all out there!

BFTP

Hasn't the Sun been more active recently than it has been in the last 1000 years?

Yes, it has beEn the most active since just before the Maunder minimum.

BFTP

Edited June 6, 2007 by BLAST FROM THE PAST