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Is this Year going to be a record wet one in places?


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Posted
  • Location: South Northants
  • Location: South Northants

    Anyone got any predictions on how wet this year could be? Where I am in central England so far this year has been very wet, the first 5 months have had the following rainfall totals:

    January - 66.4mm 126.9%

    February - 69.8mm 185.2%

    March - 52.3mm 116.2%

    April 1.6mm 3 %

    May 130.3mm 261.6%

    With the noteable exception of April, every month this year has recieved totals substantially above normal, in the case of may getting on to 3 times the normal. With June so far following in the same vane here I wondered if anyone had any predictions on this being a top 10 wet year in some places.

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District 290 mts. Wind speed 340 mts
  • Weather Preferences: Rain/snow, fog, gales and cold in every season
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District 290 mts. Wind speed 340 mts

    I've recorded 552.8mm up to this morning. In the last 30 years the first 6 months have exceeded 600mm on only 3 occasions, the most being 632.3mm in 1998. With just under half the month left to go I'd say there was a reasonable chance of this being the 4th. The wet weather really would have to be sustained for the rest of the year to beat 2000 which was the wettest year on record here with 1376.9mm.

    T.M

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    Posted
  • Location: Berlin, Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Ample sunshine; Hot weather; Mixed winters with cold and mild spells
  • Location: Berlin, Germany

    Quite amazing stats considering how extremely dry April was - and with March not far behind!

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Interesting statistics there the most notable observation being the exceptionally dry April slapped in between what have been preety wet months re-iterating waht a unique month that was.

    Once July is out of the way we enter the 6 month period of the year where would would expect the wettest conditions, so yes a good chance of a very wet year although i doubt the wettest.

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    Speaking from personal experience there seems to be a definite trend that things are getting wetter. I can't remember ever seeing so much rain as last Autumn and Winter, it was ridiculous. The climate models have predicted that summers will get drier but this will be over compensated for by more rain in Autumn and Winter, seems to fit in to what I've been seeing recently.

    I haven't actually had much rain this month at all though because of the force field repelling all the storms and heavy showers from my area. Not sure of the total but it must only be about 30-50mm.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

    In Cleadon three of the last four years have been rather dry, and in 2005/06 there was a considerable shortage of rain in parts of the south- so I'm not sure about things getting wetter. 2004 was certainly a wet year for most though.

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    Wouldnt you say it was a touch to early to decide this, we could have a wet first half of the summer, then dry, and a very very dry autumn, that would leave us pretty much okay, but nowhere near record breaking in any places

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    Wouldnt you say it was a touch to early to decide this, we could have a wet first half of the summer, then dry, and a very very dry autumn, that would leave us pretty much okay, but nowhere near record breaking in any places

    lol i agree... a week ago things were bone dry!

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    Posted
  • Location: W. Northants
  • Location: W. Northants

    It just goes to show how things have switched around. In 2006 all talk was of drought, but 2007 has definatly been the year when the Atlanitc came back.

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Hard to tell exactly how the next half of the year goes. The La Nina will possibly promote a more southerly jet however this wil lbe balanced out by stronger blocking in Autumn/early winter which will help balance things out.

    It all depends on Autumn!

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    Posted
  • Location: South Northants
  • Location: South Northants

    just totalled the rainfall here for the month so far, were already at 120mm! again over 200% of the monthly average and with still 10 days of the month to go. Ok nearly 70mm of this came in one stormy 24 hour period, but its continuing the trend of wet months. We are now totalling 440 mmm for the year which doesn't sound too bad but were in one of the dryer areas of the country, our average yearly rainfall is 620mm. So we have already had over 70% of the annual average rainfall in less than 6 months. Looking like a wet year in this part of the world!

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

    Wettest May-June periods for England and Wales, the 2007 value is a rough estimate. We have to wait for the official June figures.

    1860: 250.1

    1797: 244.4

    1830: 229.0

    1789: 222.1

    1879: 220.7

    1766: 217.3

    1773: 217.3

    1843: 211.8

    1997: 203.4

    1782: 197.7

    1769: 196.3

    1852: 196.3

    1958: 196.1

    1777: 195.1

    1768: 194.8

    1878: 194.0

    1817: 193.5

    1924: 189.6

    1955: 188.8

    1811: 187.9

    1932: 186.7

    1812: 183.0

    1907: 182.4

    1967: 182.0

    1770: 181.9

    1784: 179.9

    1912: 179.0

    2007 178.4

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    Posted
  • Location: Newbury Berkshire
  • Location: Newbury Berkshire

    Mr D - certainly shows that it has been wet, but with 10 days to go and an unsettled outlook we should move up the table a few notches

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    Dr H

    May we all know where in central England you are please?

    It does help if we all put our location in when giving reports on our weather.

    many thanks

    In 'dry' Doncaster its over 220mm so far this year, and already over 58mm this month, so another month with above average after the very dry April

    As an addition, my rainfall is, I believe, about 12-15% too low due to a very protected back garden site.

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    Posted
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham

    220mm rain here so far with 55mm in June. Its always relatively dry here though in the rain shadow of the Pennines. Nothing at all exceptional here for rain this year, compared to the same period 04,05 and 06.

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Appleby in Westmorland
  • Location: Nr Appleby in Westmorland

    That's quite some difference. 40 miles between Paul and I, yet I've received over twice as much rain. God knows how much Borrowdale must have had in the Lakes then.

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

    Wettest May-June periods for England and Wales, the 2007 value is a rough estimate. We have to wait for the official June figures.

    1860: 250.1

    1797: 244.4

    1830: 229.0

    1789: 222.1

    1879: 220.7

    1766: 217.3

    1773: 217.3

    1843: 211.8

    1997: 203.4

    1782: 197.7

    1769: 196.3

    1852: 196.3

    1958: 196.1

    1777: 195.1

    1768: 194.8

    1878: 194.0

    1817: 193.5

    1924: 189.6

    1955: 188.8

    1811: 187.9

    1932: 186.7

    2007 183.8

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

    Wettest May-June periods for England and Wales, the 2007 value is a rough estimate. We have to wait for the official June figures.

    1860: 250.1

    1797: 244.4

    1830: 229.0

    1789: 222.1

    1879: 220.7

    1766: 217.3

    1773: 217.3

    1843: 211.8

    1997: 203.4

    1782: 197.7

    1769: 196.3

    1852: 196.3

    1958: 196.1

    1777: 195.1

    1768: 194.8

    1878: 194.0

    1817: 193.5

    2007 193.4

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

    In the North East we had a pretty dry March, and it wasn't remarkably wet in May either (my rainfall stats for Cleadon are closely correlated with Paul's from Durham, suggesting that this is representative of the region as a whole). For January-June I don't think precipitation totals will be exceptional- even if June breaks the 100mm mark.

    The wettest June on my records is 1997 with 132mm- that looks safe to me.

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

    Wettest May-June periods for England and Wales, the 2007 value is a rough estimate. We have to wait for the official June figures.

    1860: 250.1

    1797: 244.4

    1830: 229.0

    1789: 222.1

    1879: 220.7

    1766: 217.3

    1773: 217.3

    1843: 211.8

    1997: 203.4

    2007 198.1

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