Flaming June...

[snowsure]

Assuming that the weather is classed as "unusual" at the moment in the UK, is anyone aware of a forecaster who predicted this unusual weather in, say, May 2007?

I say "assuming...unusual" as I do not wish to enter a semantic discussion regarding whether the current weather is unusual or not. I have seen on the bonhomie back-slapping forums elsewhere on the internet that a CET of about 15 oC is expected even though here, in South Yorkshire, we have been upgraded to water-bed owners without any additional outlay!

Whichever forecaster spotted a cold run of Northerlies at the end of a torrential 96 hours of rain is surely worth his/her salt.

Certainly feels more like April than June. Is it April 2008 early or April 2007 late?

[Osbourne One-Nil]

I forecasted it, but forgot to tell anyone.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

I'm pretty sure a cricket match in Derbyshire (Buxton I think) was called off for snow in June, possibly 1975.

Anyone remember this ??

[reef]

I'm pretty sure a cricket match in Derbyshire (Buxton I think) was called off for snow in June, possibly 1975.

Anyone remember this ??

That was the 2nd June 1975:

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=38455

Apparently a 1 in 300 year event, similar to the storm of 1987.

[stormchaser1]

Morning everyone

Here is an article regarding June 1975

http://www.personal.dundee.ac.uk/~taharley/1975_weather.htm

nigel

[West is Best]

Assuming that the weather is classed as "unusual" at the moment in the UK, is anyone aware of a forecaster who predicted this unusual weather in, say, May 2007?

But according to Philip Eden it isn't unusual so the assumption may be wrong http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/feature/2007/06/06_pe.htm

Having said that, it does seem to me that on rainfall we're starting to get to a quite unusual position (actually all the more so given the warmth of the month).

This reminds me synoptically of June 1988 - almost a mirror image. I remember an incredible day near where OON lives with driving rain and a howling gale near the end of the month I think.

[snowsure]

But according to Philip Eden it isn't unusual so the assumption may be wrong http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/feature/2007/06/06_pe.htm

Having said that, it does seem to me that on rainfall we're starting to get to a quite unusual position (actually all the more so given the warmth of the month).

This reminds me synoptically of June 1988 - almost a mirror image. I remember an incredible day near where OON lives with driving rain and a howling gale near the end of the month I think.

Good reference to the "flaming June" article but my assumptions are based on local (i.e across Yorkshire) conditions and do not consider Philip's excellent work on CET or his above mentioned article.

Either way, anyone know of any forecasters that spotted, in advance, the heavy rain and subsequent cooling Northerlies?

[Osbourne One-Nil]

This reminds me synoptically of June 1988 - almost a mirror image. I remember an incredible day near where OON lives with driving rain and a howling gale near the end of the month I think.

You could add June 89 - 07 to the list if you wanted.

[West is Best]

You could add June 89 - 07 to the list if you wanted.

lol - in the Lake District you mean?! Even wetter than Devon I guess.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

That was the 2nd June 1975:

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=38455

Apparently a 1 in 300 year event, similar to the storm of 1987.

Cheers Reef. Probably due to GW

[Bobby]

Even if someone had forecast this June they would have been guessing. I don't believe you can forecast a month ahead with any sort of accuracy at all.

[Guest Mike W]

Big jump shown on Phillip Eden's graph there, 14.2 for 1990 - 99 and then 15.3 for 2000 - 06. That and the big drop in thunderstroms and second highest sunshine totals. I wonder if the sudden temperature jump is to do with the very quick reduction in sulphur dioxide emmisions.

[Optimus Prime]

I wonder if the sudden temperature jump is to do with the very quick reduction in sulphur dioxide emmisions.

Or whether it's due to our incredibly diverse climate?

[stormchaser1]

found this

nigel

[kold weather]

What is really noteable is tyhe temps still being reasonably high in terms of the CET depsite large amounts of rainfalland a set-up that would in the past give a sub-15C CET pretty readily still looks to give a CET decently above average!

I think the answer to that one is quite obvious tohugh...the above average SST's around our shores.

[snowsure]

found this

nigel

Due to my limited knowledge of meteorology I do not know what the picture shows (except of course it was a synoptic view of the weather on 2 June 1975 wrt 850 hPa temp.) Did they predict this weather back in 1975?

[SnowBear]

I have seen snow on my birthday, June 5th, think it was either late 70's or early 80's. If I remember rightly it followed a warm/hot Easter.

[Weather-history]

Well I don't make forecasts but I warned during May, that the charts had a "June 1958" tinge to them, which meant trouble. I said on The WeatherOutlook forum that if they become entrenched then expect a wet period.

[snowsure]

Well I don't make forecasts but I warned during May, that the charts had a "June 1958" tinge to them, which meant trouble. I said on The WeatherOutlook forum that if they become entrenched then expect a wet period.

You have my greatest respect, Mr Data! Did May have a May 1958 tinge? I know this is too simplistic as the chaotic nature of nature (sic) does not give to prediction. What does this hold for July?

Rather than looking at current synoptics, is it feasible to consider previous weather patterns to steer our predictions toward a different type of forecasting? Does climate have memory?

[Weather-history]

Did May have a May 1958 tinge?

May 1958 was an unsettled month with low pressure tracking as well as slow moving across the UK. July 1958 was also unsettled.

I've seen on another site saying this June is the most easterly on record.

[Scorcher]

I've seen on another site saying this June is the most easterly on record.

That would probably explain why western areas have fared much better than eastern areas in terms of temperatures and sunshine this month. In the Manchester area we had a lovely 10 day period at the start of the month with a lot of sunshine (not particularly warm though).