August CET

[West is Best]

So who's looking good for the August CET prediction?

Well certainly not me For about the sixth month in a row I'm going to be way way too high by the looks of it. I was banking on the capricious British summer to deal out a nice month, but 18.2C really looks ridiculous at the moment! And to think I was even tempted to go over 20C. I hang my head in shame.

Forecaster? Me?

[SP1986]

Certainly feels very autumnal doesn't it? If it were the opposite in Feb I'd be accepting talk of the end of winter, so we really are near now to seeing out summer, even if we do get some late bursts of heat. As you say KW the key for the CET will be those minima: tonight's lows forecast in the 15C range. As the northerly/north-westerly pulls in we should see those drop right off.

Certainly wouldn't now bet against a big drop from this position of average. It'll then be down to whether the final week of the month can correct it.

Disagree a bit actually, but it may only be a case of 'its different here to where you are", however It certainly does not feel Autumnal, and hasnt in the rain anytime today. It actually feels very summery as temperatures approach 70F and it is humid, so I dont really agree with anyone who says it feels Autumnal at all, to be honest.

[Weather-history]

. It actually feels very summery as temperatures approach 70F and it is humid, so I dont really agree with anyone who says it feels Autumnal at all, to be honest.

..or more like those very mild muggy overcast days you get in winter in a warm sector. To be honest it feels more like that than summery. I wouldn't call overcast and drizzle in the wind, summery!

[SP1986]

..or more like those very mild muggy overcast days you get in winter in a warm sector. To be honest it feels more like that than summery. I wouldn't call overcast and drizzle in the wind, summery!

I wouldnt either, if we were a desert. However rain, overcast, and wind is all part of the diversity of any season in the British Isles.

The summer in the record warm year of 1998 has rain, overcast and wind galore, Im sure (although I cant recall the exacts of it), but I'm pretty sure that such summer wasnt discounted as 'Autumnal'.

warm sector it is, but even in winter the temperatures rarely gets to 16-17C ( although I did recall once in January this year, that the temperature did reach 17C

It does feel summery, the whole atmosphere is summery, unless of course you live on a hill, and a mountain range.

I do concede it largely depends where you are living too, though.

[kold weather]

Though to be fair actually the summer of 1998 was fairly cool compared to recent ones and is probably if anything slightly elss impressive in terms of temps unless this August sees a decently below average outcome which is unlikely though possible if we can remain close to an upper low next week.

West-Yep that NW/N flow is really going to be the thing that puts the dent in the CET, maxes of 17-19C combined wit hthe sort of mins expected should put us down below 16C, maybe even as low as 15.6C by the 20th. From then on still enough time with a moderate heatwave to get back above average but the problem is the models most certainly aren't showing that occuring in the longer term.

[West is Best]

Stephen fair enough, although in the wind down here it just feels autumnal, aided perhaps by all the leaves and small branches which have come down. I notice the Beeb's forecasters have been using the word, so perhaps I unwittingly repeated it without looking at the raw temperatures.

Still, give it 48 hours and I reckon 'autumnal' is a word that will be more in the air as that north-westerly kicks in.

[osmposm]

......can we please restrict any cause and effect analysis of our changing climate to the mysteriously named 'Environment Change' Forum.....

Yes, sorry Shuggee.

The weather has certainly wrongfooted most of us here - perhaps we should have paid more attention to the historical tendency for unstable patterns to persist till the end of summer once established by mid-July (the St Swithin's day effect).

I still think it may stabilize at the end of the month and into September; but even if it does, I doubt that it will pull us much above the 71-00 average. I'd go for bang-on if I were guessing now - 16.2. Which is not what I thought two weeks ago, indeed I was cursing for not having had the time to change my guess from 16.8 to 17.4.

Tamara & VillagePlank (& others?) may live to regret making late upward changes of a degree and more to the low/mid-17s. As a matter of interest, did anyone lower their guess in the final day or two...apart, that is, from TinyBill, who broke all records, past and probably future, in reducing his pitch by eight and a half degrees, from 24 to 15.6!!?

[SP1986]

Still, give it 48 hours and I reckon 'autumnal' is a word that will be more in the air as that north-westerly kicks in.

Agreed, like Kevin said though its currently in the warm sector. As for the CET, well I wouldnt think theres anywhere for a CET to go now but down, I cannot see August recovering into the above average category (end of the month) if we stick with the same pattern. My CET guess looks ridiculous at this point. Such fun eh?

[Optimus Prime]

Does every topic have to be discussed about Climate Change? Just shows how much media has morphed peoples minds. I just seen on the BBC news about a holiday company almost blaming this drizzle and wind on climate change!

Anyway I suspect it's odds on now for a below average month. Of course the BBC will always try and skew the facts and call it close to average but we know what it really is.

[The PIT]

I'm still plumping for an average month Temp wise. Poss variation either side but not a lot either way.

[cheeky_monkey]

Yes, sorry Shuggee.

The weather has certainly wrongfooted most of us here - perhaps we should have paid more attention to the historical tendency for unstable patterns to persist till the end of summer once established by mid-July (the St Swithin's day effect).

I still think it may stabilize at the end of the month and into September; but even if it does, I doubt that it will pull us much above the 71-00 average. I'd go for bang-on if I were guessing now - 16.2. Which is not what I thought two weeks ago, indeed I was cursing for not having had the time to change my guess from 16.8 to 17.4.

Tamara & VillagePlank (& others?) may live to regret making late upward changes of a degree and more to the low/mid-17s. As a matter of interest, did anyone lower their guess in the final day or two...apart, that is, from TinyBill, who broke all records, past and probably future, in reducing his pitch by eight and a half degrees, from 24 to 15.6!!?

i think u should only be allowed one guess and forced to stick with it...not keep changing jus before the month starts!

[osmposm]

Ooh, you....um....cheeky monkey, you :huh: !!

i think u should only be allowed one guess and forced to stick with it...

[Stu_London]

Have to say that I am happy with my 15.7C prediction.

[Joneseye]

Quiet on this thread today..

Figures from Climate-UK:

CET: (Aug 1-14): 16.3°C (-0.2 degC)

E&W Rain: (Aug 1-14): 24.3mm ( 74 per cent)

E&W Sun: (Aug 1-14): 110.3hr (124 per cent)

The current N-W UK tracker figure for August 2007 is: 16.72°C

(difference from average August CET is 0.52°C)

Joneseye :lol:

[Stu_London]

August CET has nudged up again to 16.3 (although this is rounded up)

Looking at the ensembles for the 00z run, I note 2 things

1) The below average period has been shortened by 1-2 days

2) There are more hot/warm members than previously.

For this reason I would probably have to call above average as it stands today but very close to 50/50

Full details here: -

http://www.climate-uk.com/

[summer blizzard]

It looks like the 20th-25th should be around average, raising the CET slightly to around 15.9C, afterwards it looks like we could see a heatwave, so a third consecutive close to average August probable.

[shuggee]

I think the mildness of the last couple of nights might be responsible for the steadying. However, the next three nights have 8/9/10ºCs in the CET zone.

[West is Best]

I think the mildness of the last couple of nights might be responsible for the steadying. However, the next three nights have 8/9/10ºCs in the CET zone.

Yes, noticeably colder last night again ... so the drop will now resume I think. Mind you, Saturday's storm could see an actual rise with a mild draw. If this HP comes in next week then we'll be back to cooler nights for a bit before the warm up. Very difficult to call this one because we're in something of a yo-yo. The transience of the HP may well also mean a very warm finale to the month. Anything could happen from here: from around 15.2C to 17.5C. I guess something in the middle of those then?!

[Kentish Man]

Manley has the CET holding steady at 16.3C today (Aug 1 - 15).

Beyond that the next six days should see the CET drop below 16.0C before recovering from mid-week onwards.

[eddie]

At this stage, and taking the GFS into consideration, I would estimate there is a 50% chance for the CET to end up below the 71-00 average(16.2C) and 30% chance for it to end up below the 61-90 average(15.8C).

I reckon my 16.4C guess won't be so far off.

[North-Easterly Blast]

The modern UK climate will really be showing its ugly face if we do not get a below average August or at the very least a close to average month. Looking back at the CET list there is a bit of a link / correlation that a cool July (15.5 or below) is often followed by a cool August, or an average one at the most. Cool Julys (15.5 or below) are rarely followed by an August that is above average at all.

Since World War Two, only in 2000 has a cool July been followed by an August that was above average at all. Prior to this we have to go back to 1942 (through 18 cool Julys) to find an above average August after a cool July.

[Gavin P]

Or maybe it'll just show that we have a very warm final week, to neagte the warm days and cool nights that have off-set one another through the first three weeks of August?

[Stu_London]

I am calling a 60% chance of above average gonig by the latest set of output

I thought we would be lower than we are now and there is quite a big upside risk in the 6-12 days timeframe.

I think up to about 17 is now possible

[Gavin P]

Yeah, low 17's is my best guess now.

[Kentish Man]

I am calling a 60% chance of above average gonig by the latest set of output

I thought we would be lower than we are now and there is quite a big upside risk in the 6-12 days timeframe.

I think up to about 17 is now possible

There may be a bit of a drop before then though. A quick scan of CET stations indicate minima last night of 9/10C and maxima today of only 17/18C. The next few days will be cool overall. To obtain 17C we will need the right orientation of the high later next week and equally as important for it to stay put for several days preferably to the end of the month. That will suit me as I'm holidaying in Cornwall during the last week of this month!