Moon Phases

[stormchaser1]

Evening everyone

ROGER [if your looking in}

Ive heard {will have to dig the abstract out again } that between JULY and DECEMBER this year , that PERIGEE will be at its most NORTHERN MAX then it will slowly drift south again , {apparently this happens every 3 years} Ive read thaat between the dates given there could be some severe storms, WHAT ARE YOUR VIEWS ON THIS ???? is this the same NORTHERN MAX what you mention on your thread the DAILY ASTRO or is this completely different { Before you ask , NO its not a abstract from one of P Corbryns forecasts { think i read this from Mr K Ring}

nigel

ROGER

ive just found the abstract

Close perigee years

The moon comes closer to earth once every 27.3 days, called perigee. If we take the earth-moon's distance on perigee day for every month in a year we have 13 figures that we can average, yielding the average-perigee distance for the year. Looking at a series of these we can take note that about every 4.3 years comes a year when the moon is averagely closer, called a closeperigee year. 2007 is such a year. Perigee changes hemispheres to an 8.85 year cycle. That means perigee is closer to the N hemisphere for about 3 years then drifts south, spending 1-2 years around the equator, then further south to lie closer to the southern hemisphere for 3 years before beginning the return journey. Close perigee years occur when the moon is passing the equator, as you would expect because the earth bulges into space more at the equator and so is going to be generally slightly closer to the moon. Australia and parts of NZ could experience extra-high temperatures from late September to November 2007. Spring and early summer could be warmer than mid and late summer. January, February and March should be mild, not extra hot. By 2008, perigee will have shifted to the N hemisphere to reach the northernmost perigee point between July 2008-December 2008. That year may be the last for seriously destructive events until 2011, 2015 and 2020.

===========================

with thanks to

http://www.predictweather.com/articles.asp?ID=8

Nigel

[Roger J Smith]

Nigel, perigee moves forward around the Moon's orbit over a cycle of 8.86 years. It is currently happening a few days before northern max, about when the Moon moves through Taurus and is seen close to Aldebaran and the Pleiades. By late this year the perigee will be at the northern max (above Orion in other words) and each year after that, it will move along the zodiac by about 40 degrees, so that 5 years from now it will be near the southern max position.

All it means to me is that events that I model into the research program at northern max would be getting stronger. I personally don't think perigee produces an event itself, it is just a factor in how intense the events will be. The same applies to apogee, at that point events should be weaker than average. I've noted that you find an event for apogee and so I am looking at research data to see what shows up there.

Since the declination cycle of the Moon is 18.6 years, this combines with the perigee cycle to produce a complex cycle of 186 years where the Moon returns to very similar combinations of declination and perigee. In other words, to find a situation where the Moon was in exactly the same orbital positions as this year, you would need to go back to 1822, and then you have the complication that lunar dates are different (190 years is similar but 186 years ago the full moon dates would be about where the new moon dates are, so to get everything exactly the same, go back 372 years to 1636).

[stormchaser1]

Evening Roger

Thanks for the information { much appreciated

Just haveing a look at my charts and ive noticed that tomorrow is APOGEE at 0427hrs, Today is also the last quarter moon phase, Just seems to coincidental to me , that the latest events , are occuring on APOGEE

NIGEL

NXT perigee is the 14th of next month

[stormchaser1]

Evening Roger

Found these if your interested

1822 moon phases for full and new moon

NEW MOON

1821 Dec 24 13:06.

1822 Jan 23 5:38 .

1822 Feb 21 19:49.

1822 Mar 23 7:16

1822 Apr 21 16:16

1822 May 20 23:39

1822 Jun 19 6:33

1822 Jul 18 14:07

1822 Aug 16 23:21

1822 Sep 15 10:57

1822 Oct 15 1:18

1822 Nov 13 18:20

1822 Dec 13 13:24

1823 Jan 12 9:02

==============

FULL MOON'

JAN 7TH

FEB 6TH

MARCH 7TH

APRIL 6TH

MAY 6TH

JUNE 4TH

JULY 4TH

AUG 3RD

SEPT 1ST

SEPT 30TH

OCT 30TH

NOV 28TH

DEC 28TH

===============

perigee and apogee 1822

Jan 4 20:13 365322 km F-2d19h Jan 16 14:21 404633 km N-6d15h

Jan 31 5:36 370078 km F-5d23h Feb 13 11:35 404400 km F+7d 6h

Feb 25 10:10 367332 km N+3d14h Mar 13 7:09 404950 km F+5d10h

Mar 25 4:12 361941 km N+1d20h Apr 9 21:54 405817 km F+3d 9h

Apr 22 11:16 358150 km N+ 19h May 7 4:15 406374 km + F+ 23h

May 20 21:10 357103 km - N- 2h Jun 3 6:33 406324 km + F-1d13h

Jun 18 5:59 358906 km N-1d 0h Jun 30 15:53 405634 km F-3d19h

Jul 16 9:34 362991 km N-2d 4h Jul 28 7:17 404707 km F-5d17h

Aug 12 20:12 367923 km N-4d 3h Aug 25 1:32 404219 km F-7d10h

Sep 7 0:06 369433 km F+5d11h Sep 21 20:56 404575 km N+6d 9h

Oct 3 16:55 364834 km F+2d17h Oct 19 15:38 405546 km N+4d14h

Oct 31 17:55 359738 km F+1d 8h Nov 16 5:23 406407 km - N+2d11h

Nov 29 4:32 356767 km ++ F+ 9h Dec 13 7:56 406644 km -- N- 5h

Dec 27 17:48 357038 km + F- 12h

nigel

1636 moon phase below

perigee and apogee

Jan 2 0:12 404745 km N-6d 7h

Jan 17 5:54 369568 km F-5d 1h Jan 29 21:28 404378 km F+7d13h

Feb 11 0:23 368308 km N+4d 2h Feb 26 17:42 404813 km F+5d18h

Mar 9 13:04 362863 km N+2d 2h Mar 25 9:46 405676 km F+3d18h

Apr 6 19:07 358626 km N+ 23h Apr 21 17:46 406320 km + F+1d10h

May 5 5:03 357052 km - N+ 1h May 18 19:40 406391 km + F-1d 3h

Jun 2 14:24 358379 km N- 20h Jun 15 3:37 405804 km F-3d10h

Jun 30 19:14 362143 km N-1d22h Jul 12 18:16 404868 km F-5d 9h

Jul 28 10:41 367093 km N-3d16h Aug 9 12:06 404255 km F-7d 3h

Aug 22 23:55 369721 km F+6d 8h Sep 6 7:15 404457 km N+6d17h

Sep 18 4:34 365806 km F+3d 2h Oct 4 2:09 405364 km N+4d22h

Oct 16 2:15 360568 km F+1d13h Oct 31 17:15 406309 km - N+2d21h

Nov 13 11:34 357090 km + F+ 13h Nov 27 21:59 406668 km -- N+ 7h

Dec 12 0:36 356707 km ++ F- 8h Dec 24 23:51 406408 km - N-2d10h

New Full

1635 Dec 23 18:15

1636 Jan 8 7:24 1636 Jan 22 7:37

1636 Feb 6 22:09 1636 Feb 20 22:43

1636 Mar 7 10:20 1636 Mar 21 14:54

1636 Apr 5 20:01 1636 Apr 20 7:17

1636 May 5 3:49 1636 May 19 23:08

1636 Jun 3 10:48 1636 Jun 18 13:57

1636 Jul 2 18:07 1636 Jul 18 3:30

1636 Aug 1 2:53 1636 Aug 16 15:40

1636 Aug 30 13:52 1636 Sep 15 2:34

1636 Sep 29 3:33 1636 Oct 14 12:36

1636 Oct 28 19:57 1636 Nov 12 22:28

1636 Nov 27 14:32 1636 Dec 12 8:47

1636 Dec 27 10:05 1637 Jan 10 19:55

[Roger J Smith]

Good stuff, and don't forget, if anyone finds any weather records from 1636, these dates are converted to Gregorian calendar, the calendar in use in England back then was Julian, so you would need to know if the records are old style or new style before trying to relate them.

Example, the Daniel Defoe storm. It happened on 26-27 November 1703 (old style) but had the calendar been changed before that, it would have been 7-8 December (Gregorian) and this was at the new moon.

The calendar was changed in 1752 for Britain, and in case you wonder about it, the CET records are adjusted -- what we see in the records for January 1740, for example, was experienced by people back then as 21 December to 20 January.

[mettalfabrik]

a little off topic nigel but i thought this article might interest us moon watchers

http://www.space.com/spacewatch/080118-ns-moon-names.html

[stormchaser1]

Evening everyone

I apologise if i havent posted in here for a while , been a bit busy just lately,

Anyway, keep a sharp eye around the 14th FEBRUARY First quarter moon phase , also Perigee falls on the same day, current charts showing another cold spell around the first quarter moon phase!. { WILL UPDATE LATER }{Think i mentioned this date some time ago} i will have to scroll back and double check

NIGEL

[stormchaser1]

FEBRUARY 21ST FULL MOON

Im going to keep a sharp eye on this little beauty ,which has appeared on the 12z charts,

Deep Low depression tracking NE from the Atlantic

Noitice how the center deepens to 968

[attach

ment=56005:t324.png]

I know this is in FI at the moment , but DO NOT DISREGARD this one, ok it may get downgrade then upgraded, but this looks like a monster of a storm

[stormchaser1]

Found this if anyone is interested. beware it is a very long read, but also a very interesting read

http://www.astronomy.org.nz/aas/Journal/Oc...eudoWeather.asp

Nigel

Just to add to my previous post APOGEE also falls 7 days later on the 28th

Nigel

[Cookie]

thanks for the updates nigel will keep my eyes peeled for 21st

[stormchaser1]

Morning everyone

Today the 14th February we see the moon at PERIGEE, since the 31st January when the moon was in APOGEE, the moon has travelled around 34316km , on the 31st January the moon was 404531km , today the moon is approximately 370217km nearer.

Also at PERIGEE regarding the weather, high pressure is in control over much of the Uk, and feels alot cooler than of late,, also today the moon phase is currently First quarter.

Next moon phase is the FULL MOON on the 21st February, and the next APOGEE ON THE 28th FEBRUARY

Nigel

[Cookie]

is the 21st still looking bad mate?

[stormchaser1]

This months First quarter moon phase has certinley been a cold affiar, especially with Perigee being on the same day, {i mentioned these dates quite some time ago}.First quarter was on the 14th February

APOGEE ON THE 28TH fEBRUARY [ RETURNING TO WET AND WINDY FOR SOME} possibly for scottish regions

Nigel

[Cookie]

thanks for the update mate you right about 21st btw

[stormchaser1]

just a quick update for tomorrow FULL MOON 21ST FEBRUARY

[atta

chment=56716:update_06z.png]

also WATCH AROUND THE 28TH FEBRUARY , MOON WILL BE APOGEE

Nigel

[Cookie]

FEBRUARY 21ST FULL MOON

Im going to keep a sharp eye on this little beauty ,which has appeared on the 12z charts,

Deep Low depression tracking NE from the Atlantic

Noitice how the center deepens to 968

[attach

ment=56005:t324.png]

I know this is in FI at the moment , but DO NOT DISREGARD this one, ok it may get downgrade then upgraded, but this looks like a monster of a storm

im seriously impressed mate! you spotted that on the 8 12 days later and you got it almost spot on.

[stormchaser1]

Cookie

thanks for that, much appreciated

nigel

[stormchaser1]

Evening everyone

Well what a day it has been today , strong westerly winds , {i mentioned this sometime ago},

Ive noticed over the last couple of months , that when the moon starts to go out of the Full Moon Phase and into the Waning Gibbous {next stage of the moon phase} , that there seems to be alot more activity, arround the weather.

Will update more , when ive scrolled back and checked on some data

nigel

[stormchaser1]

COOKIE

THIS IS A HEADS UP FOR THE 28TH ! MOON WILL BE APOGEE !

NIGEL

[Cookie]

thanks nigel!

this may interest you taken from metcheck.

A marked change in the weather is underway across Northern parts of England at the moment as Storm Zizi rattles in from the Atlantic bringing strong winds and heavy rain.

A frontal wave associated with the system will cross during Friday bringing a further increase in winds, mostly across Northern England and the Southern uplands where gusts of up to 70mph can be expected for a time.

As we head towards the end of February, so the old saying "In like a lion, out like a lamb" comes into play. Some unsettled weather on the cards for next week with the risk (albeit low) of some very stormy weather across the North during the latter part of next week.

A little too far away to put any detail or confidence in just yet, however when I was taking a look at the pressure charts earlier today the Atlantic did seem more like a lion than a lamb... not just a lion, but one who has had his wisdom teeth extracted and received a gas bill on the same day.

[stormchaser1]

Morning everyone

seems strange or is this just Coincidental ? latest events have occured just before APOGEE!!!!!

APOGEE fell toady at 0108hrs and was approx 404441Km away.

EARTHQUAKE yesterday morning,STRONG WINDS {gale force in places} the day before,

STRONG WINDS expected on friday 2 DAYS after APOGEE

APOGEEE DATES FOR THIS YEAR!!

jAN 3RD 405327KM

JAN 31ST 404531KM

FEB 28TH 404441KM **********************

MAR 26TH 405093KM

APR 23RD 405944KM

MAY 20TH 406402KM

JUNE 16TH 406228KM

JULY 14TH 405451KM

AUG 10TH 404556KM***********************************

SEPT 7TH 404209KM*************************************

OCT 5TH 404715KM

NOV 2ND 406479KM

NOV 29TH 406479KM

DEC 26TH 406600KM

August and september im looking at another major event !! not sure what yet, im going to have to do some more research on this one

With data i have gathered so far this year we have had some kind of event on or around a APOGEE DATE , ie in January we had strong winds , now in february we have had strong wind s and a earthquake

Nigel

Also just to add to this post watch around MAY THE 20TH WE ALSO HAVE A FULL MOON OCCUR ON THE SAME DAY AS APOGEE

Edited February 28, 2008 by stormchaser1

[Zenarcher]

Looks stormy on friday

thanks for the updates

[Cookie]

ALSO HAVE A FULL MOON OCCUR ON THE SAME DAY AS APOGEE

:huh:

[stormchaser1]

Evening everyone

I havent posted for a while , been quite busy in other areas, Anyway , ive just had a quick look through some other threads and there is some suggestion that we could be in for a very windy period on Sunday and Monday

Moon will be in PERIGEE on monday 10TH mARCH APPROX 366301, CLOSEST THE MOON HAS BEEN FOR SOME TIME , hOWEVER APART FROM THIS DATE WHICH I HAVE BEEN KEEPING TRACKS ON FOR SOME TIME , I AM CONCERNED FOR TWO OTHER DATES TO keep tags on

MAY 6TH 0323 MOON PERIGEE 357771KM ALSO ON THIS DATE THE NEW MOON PHASE

MAY 20TH MOON APOGEE 1429HRS APPROX 406402KM, AGAIN ALSO ON THIS DATE THE MOON WILL BE IN FULL MOON PHASE AT 0211HRS

Along way off i know but i thought i would give a heads up on this one .

i expect very windy windy conditions and also some very heavy rain around these dates, [ i will be keeping a sharp eye on these two dates.] and will post data on what i have available

nigel

[Cookie]

good to see you nigel,

thanks for the heads up.