Moon Phases

[stormchaser1]

Morning Roger

Thank you for your input , its always a pleasure reading your posts

At the moment im looking into JOHANNES KEPLERS laws of planetary motion and also ISAAC NETWONS Theory on Gravitation

Reason im looking into this because ive noticed this year that the seasons have been late, ie Aug/ Sept/ Oct/ was warmer than June/ July and August etc,, and im just wondering if this has anything to do with the moons movement or Tilt. I know that the moon is Ecliplitc and travels along the Ecliptic path>

Also with how the moon phases are predicted for the next couple of months , suggesting that Winter could actually start in February Next year , moon phases are very early for February and ive checked data and i havent found anything with a similar pattern. With the moon phases being early in February im expecting February to be a very cold and stormy affair,

I was quite happy with my prediction for This December so far

Current state of the moon

moon rise= 1841

moon set= 1019

93%

moon age= 17 days 4 hours and 59mins

distance= 372414

moon size= 0.53

next moon phase = 31st december last quarter [ my prediction very stormy on or either side of this date]

Nigel

[Zenarcher]

Cookie and weathermaster battern down those hatches tomorrow night, expect wind speeds around 50 mph

Nigel

Thanks for the warning

[Cookie]

thanks roger and nigel as ever

[pottyprof]

Nooooooo!! Don't stop Nigel. It's good to follow your ideas and be able to follow what is happening. Ken Ring's theory is an interesting take on things but he lacks the ability to explain things politely and refuses to be questioned. You, on the otherhand, are explaining your findings. I can't see anyone disputing what you are finding. You are doing this over a short timescale and getting very reasonable results ATM. You listen to Roger. Keep going....

[stormchaser1]

Afternoon everyone

My forecast for January

Anyway ive been checking on data ive gathered this month and this is what ive come up with

Between the 1st december Last quarter

and the 9th December New Moon , it was quite mild , However we saw two low systems cross to the North of Scotland in this period also, Pressure readings dropped down 974 just before the New moon {on the 9th) Pressure reading around the Last quarter was 984 [978 being the lowest on the 2nd ]my max temp during this period was 13c which i recorded 5 days after the last quarter on the 5th

Now regarding next month January}Last quarter is on the December 31st and the New moon on the 8th January, so im expecting it to be mild from now until the 6th or 8th} then im expecting another cold spell possibly lasting until the 24th when the Full moon shall take place

Im also expecting it to get quite windy around the 3rd January moon will be apogge for the first time in 2008 and also im expecting wind around the 8th New moon

Kee[ an eye on the weather around these dates, as they pass

DEC 31st Last quarter

January 8th New moon

January 15th= First quarter

January 22nd Full moon

January 30th Last quarter

Also take particular notice especially around the 3rd January {moon in Apogee]

Also around the 19th January {moon in Perigee}

I expect windy conditions around those two dates

More data to follow

nigel

[Zerouali lives]

Nigel, it's now looking as if a cold spell will comence 3rd January - 5 days before the new moon. Interesting to see if the models downgrade this cold spell for it to re-emerge on the 8th along with the new moon???

[stormchaser1]

Morning everyone

2006 data for January

January 1st we saw the moon in Perigee at 2251hrs, high pressure dominated, up to the 9th January,

We saw the First quarter moon phase on the 6th January and around this date, temp dropped to as low as -2c on the 8th january, On the 5th and 6th january we saw some snow in the north east

Leading up to the Full moon which was on the 13th January {10th- 13th] it was pretty much mild with the temp reaching 11c on the 10th january, however on the 10th and 11th january we did see some rain.Also from the 9th onwards we had quite a windy period up to 20th january,

From the 21st we saw high pressure gain control and this lasted to the end of the month. On the 29th january we saw the moon phase being New and the 29th/ 30th/ 31st we aslo saw the temperature drop considerably, temp dropped to -7c on the 30th january. Dring the new moon phase on the 29th temp= -4c

30th temp= -7c

31st temp= -5c

overall this was a very cold month in fact -1.73c below the 1971- 2000 for Newcsastle which should be 4.75c for January

Max temp= 5.54c

Min temp= 0.51c

average temp= 3.02c

{more data to follow}

I did try to do a table but i might have to put the figures onto Excel and post the link Later} if anyone is interested

More data to follow

nigel

[stormchaser1]

January 2007

This year started off to be a very windy January, especially around the Last quarter which was on the 11th january

3rd jan= full moon

11th january= last quarter

19th january= new moon

25th january= first quarter

Again around the first quarter and new moon there was another cold spell temp dropping down to -1c, after the first quarter, it started to get mild again especially around the 31st january where temp climb up to 10c. High pressure dominated from the 22nd to 31st january , with low pressure around the new moon, and last quarter. Around the full moon and last quarter stage it was relatively mild with the temp reaching a whopping 12c on the 12th january

We also saw snow fall on the 25th and 24th/ 23/ 22nd january around the first quarter stage

Max average temp= 7.48c

Min average temp= 3.06c

average temp= 5.27c, should be 4.75c which i make +0.52c above average,

Nigel

Edited December 29, 2007 by stormchaser1

[Cookie]

some more great posts mate keep it up :lol:

[stormchaser1]

January 2005

Jan 3rd= last quarter

Jan 10th New moon

Jan 17th= First quarter

Jan 25th= Full moon

Feb 2nd= Last quarter

For the first 10 days of january it was a very mixed bag of weather, rain/ wind/ and even thunder heard on the 1st January. Around the 10th January where the Moon was Perigee at 1008hrs and also the New moon fell on the same day at 1203hrs. there was some very strong winds around the North East, especially on the 10th. A deep low depression was the cause of this , as the North East pressure dropped down to 973hpa on the 8th. Low pressure circulated around the North East for a few days after, averaging around 989.8 for the 5 days.During the first 10 days it was also pretty much mild max temp being 13c the day after the new moon on the 9th, Min temp for the first 11 days dropped to only 1c {Reason im thinking it to be mild was that the moon was in perigee, getting closer](more research on that one i think]

On the 12th January [2 days after the new moon } high pressure developed around the North East , also bringing in a cold spell, where on the 14th i recorded -4c. pressure started at 1015hpa on the 12th and rose to 1026hpa on the 14th. Also i recorded some low dew point temps , -5c on the 14th , {however no snow fell]. this Low pressure lasted until the 21st January when high pressure started to develop , during this spell of high pressure, temp dropped down to -3c on the 22nd where the pressure rose to 1032hpa, High pressure remained across the North East for the remainder of the month and also low temps were on the agenda[ not that low , dropping down to 0c

Ive noticed that over the last 3 years 2007/ 2006/ and 2005 snow has fallen across the North East on or around the First quarter moon phase

AVERAGE MAX MEAN TEMP=7.64C

aVERAGE MIN MEAN TEMP= 4.93C

AVERAGE MEAN TEMP 6.28C

+1.53 Above the 1971- 2000 average mean for newcastle = 4.75c

More too follow

nigel

[jethro]

Nigel, I came across this whilst looking around at stuff, thought you might find it interesting. Sadly, it's just an abstract, I don't have full access to the site, perhaps you know someone who does? If not, the full papers I've bought before only cost a tenner or so.

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=A...9273f79ac4ce3c0

[stormchaser1]

regarding the forecasts ive done, {so far, im pretty happy}{ theres still alot of research to be done on this , but im getting there slowly] what with my computer coarse and examination to be a senior support technician not that far away, {theres not enough hours in the day}

In February Next year , ive noticed that all the moon phases are scheduled to be very early in the morning, which up to now i havent come across anything similar in the past

thats why im suggesting February will be a very cold month and stormy, all the signs are there ,

February moon phases

Feb7th= New moon 0344

Feb 14th= first quarter 0334

Feb 21st Full moon= 0331

Feb 29th= last quarter= 0503

Also Perigee will be on the 19th February at 0840

And also Apogee will be on the 31st February at 0807

As i mentioned keep tags on the dates from 7th February to the 21st February

Regarding January

Im keeping tags on the dates from the 8th to the around the 15th possibly later, Janaury 15th will see the First quarter moon phase at 1946hrs which is suggesting fair and frosty conditions if the wind is approaching from the North or North East, also with data i have gathered ive also noticed that around or on the first quarter moon phase for the last 3 years , the North East has seen snow fall

January 22nd will see the Full moon 1335 hours which is suggesting some kind of PPN

with regards

nigel

[Rollo]

Morning Nigel, as you are aware I read rogers notes but in all honesty my brain could not really understand them. Of interest to me on reading your take on mid-January and february is the winter forecast I posted last autumn on another weather site (roger is a moderator there) in which I suggested a settled quiet spell towards the 3rd wek of January followed by the high over the country being swallowed up by a larger one to the North-East leading to a cold snowy end to the month and this cold type lasting through february.

[stormchaser1]

Evening Mike

Hope all is well over your neck of the woods??

Thanks for the Input [ much appreciated}

I will have too try and pop over one of the days ,

Nigel

[Chris Knight]

Nigel, I came across this whilst looking around at stuff, thought you might find it interesting. Sadly, it's just an abstract, I don't have full access to the site, perhaps you know someone who does? If not, the full papers I've bought before only cost a tenner or so.

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=A...9273f79ac4ce3c0

It's often worth copying the title directly into google and looking for a PDF! As it happens hit number one comes up with:

http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/6/4...-2006-print.pdf

Which isn't the article your reference points to , but an earlier paper by the same research group looking at the Arctic and middle latitudes B) !

[stormchaser1]

one for cookie and weather master

nigel

[stormchaser1]

on the last day of 2007 my current average mean temp is standing on 3.54c, currently 1.76c down on the average 1971- 2000 mean for Newcastle which should be 5.3c

Average Max temp so far 6.36c down by 0.73c

Average min temp so far 0.733c donw by 2.76c

1st= max 10c min 3c

2nd= max 7c min 2c

3rd= max 6c min 1c

4th= max 12c min 1c

5th= max 13c min 7c

6th= max 12c min 7c

7th= max 7c min 2c

8th= max 6c min 1c=6.5mm rain fell on this day

9th= max 6c min 0c New moon= heavy rain 8mm fell on this day

10th= max 5c min -1c

11th= max 5c min -2c

12th= max 3c min -3c

13th= max 5c min 0c

14th= max 1c min -3c

15th= max 3c min -2c

16th= max 2c min -2c

17th= max 5c min -3c First quarter

18th= max 5c min 5c

19th= max 5c min 0c

20th= max 3c min 1c

21st= max 1c min -3c

22nd= max 5c min -5c

23rd= max 7c min -2c

24th= max 10c min 1c Full moon

25th= max 5c min -1c

26th= max 10c min 3c

27th= max 10c min 6c

28th= max 11c min 6c

29th= max 6c min 1c

30th= max 5c min 0c

31st= Last quarter

Rainfall so far for december 2007= 30.2mm

Nigel

[stormchaser1]

My annual average mean temp according to the 1971- 2000 stats for Newcastle upon tyne should read 9.57c, however after going back to 2004 my annual mean temp as been well below average

2004= 9.12c

2005= 8.45c

2006= 8.875c

2007= 8.67c so far [with one day to go]

Will follow this up later with some stats going back to 1996

Nigel

[Cookie]

thanks for posting the charts re frdiay mate

[Zerouali lives]

Looking at the latest charts Nigel I can't help but notice the possibility of another Scandi High (and therefore an easterly) developing around the 12th which would be consistent with cold forming between the New Moon and the First Quarter!

[stormchaser1]

Morning everyone

During the past week or so ive been looking into the moons TRANSIT and ive noticed since December that when the moon is in TRANSIT approx every 27.5days we seem to have very unsettled weather, ie in December the TRANSIT was around the 9th December , now during the course of this we had heavy rain fall on the 9th which also was coincidently the New Moon, also on the 6th December the moon was APOGEE. Also on the 8th pressure fell to 974hpa.

Now in January so far APOGEE was on the 3rd january we we saw some heavy snowfall {precipitation,followed by Heavy rain on the 4th January, from my calculations TRANSIT should be today and the pressure has fallen again to 984.9hp {not as low as last month]

will get back with more data when i have them available

Nigel

ROGER;

If your looking in , could this be coincidentle . or if we follow the TRANSIT of the moon could we possibly precict any weather around these dates,

This is just a theory and my own research with my own views { everyone has there own opinion]

I would like to hear you views on this ,

Nigel

[stormchaser1]

current conditions

Moon is 5% visible

age of moon = 27days 6 hours and 6 mins

moon size= 0.4966

distance yesterday 403595

distance this morning 401026 = 2596km closer

Moon should be Perigee on the 19th Janauray

Nigel

[robl1200]

Just my theory, but its been proven that the Moon affects not only Volcanoes but also the release of methane and natural gas into the air.

Could it be possible that as a result of this there is a sort of slight cooling/warming effect every few weeks, as more volcanic ash is released during full moon the Earth cools slightly, then when the ash settles by the time New Moon comes around the Earth begins to rewarm again..and so the cycle continues.

[Chris Knight]

I am following this topic with great interest, SC, many thanks.

Interest in lunar cycles influenced the philosophical works of some of the best known names in classical science, including Kepler and Newton, and has its roots in astrology and chronometry since prehistoric times.

see Geniet pages:

http://www.iol.ie/~geniet/eng/moonperb.htm

http://www.iol.ie/~geniet/eng/moonfluct.htm

Just a few thoughts about decadal cycles of the moon. It concerns both perigee and apogee, and the tilt of the moon's orbit of about 5.1 degree from the ecliptic. The perigee and apogee occur because the moon's orbit is elliptical.

The precession of the elliptical orbit is called the apsidal period of 8.847 years. This is about 0.153 short of a full 9 years, so about every 6.5 of these cycles brings the sun - earth - moon perihelion/aphelion/perigee/apogee into approximate alignment - a period of 57.8 years.

This is fairly cut and dried in that the long (apogee) or the short axis (perigee) of the moon's orbit points sunward every 4.424 years, with the added impetus to the solar tide from the new and full moons around these times, indicating that there may also be a semicyclic periodicity of around 29 years.

The perihelion P and aphelion A of the earth (moon) - sun system occurs in the first few days of January P, and July A at the present.

The nodal cycle where the tilt of the lunar orbit oscillates from 5.1 degrees below the ecliptic to 5.1 degrees above and back again is 18.61 years.

This adds another vector to the tides on earth in a meridional plane, affecting the north and south hemispheres differentially every 9.3 years. The meridional effect on the oceans has particular effects on the polar regions, affecting the North Atlantic/Arctic/North Pacific ocean tides beyond the normal astronomical tidal limits, and creating null tides in the southern ocean around Antarctica, punctuated with higher than normal surges within the monthly cycle.

Due to the 23.44 degree tilt of the earth's axis with the ecliptic plane, and a tiny nutation of the earth's axis, due to the moon's gravitational effect, the moon appears to have a maximum +28.74 degrees at peak declination during its monthly cycle for up to 18 months on either side of the lunar node.

The tidal braking effect of the moon also causes variations in the length of day.

One effect is that the moon can appear north of the zenith at places as far north of the tropics as Miami, and the "lunar arctic circle", moves between 61.5 and 71.9 deg latitude during the 18-year period of the motion of the lunar nodes.

9.3 years later, and the moon is on the other side of the ecliptic and has a maximum declination of +18.14 degrees, reversing the direction of the meridional effect of the tides to a more equatorial effect.

The nodal variations and their sequence affect the northern and southern oceans surface currents - the Gyres, the heat and humidity content of the atmosphere above them, and the strength and position of the boundary currents around them.

In between these Major and Minor "Standstill" dates, the moons orbit "flattens off" to coincide with the ecliptic, increasing the rate of possible lunar and solar eclipses, the major tidal effects being aligned in the ecliptic plane.

The most recent Major Lunar standstill period lasted from 2005-2007, centred around 15th September 2006.

There are also other periodicities, in the times of moonrise and set of 18 and 19 years.

If the nodal period of 18.6 years and the apsidal period of 8.83 run alongside each other there is a 19-21 year subcycle where these cycles fall into approximate phase, which may accentuate or attenuate their combined effects.

Decadal cycles as well as climate have a major influence on fisheries, and a particularly interesting historical timeline, with lots of links to some very interesting articles can be found at:

http://sharpgary.org/FisheryTimeline.html

including:

http://www.fao.org/DOCREP/005/Y2787E/y2787e01.htm#TopOfPage

which includes analyses of cyclic fish population variation with major cycles at 58 and 29 years, spectral analyses of Length of day variation, Atmospheric circulation index, and temperature change, with cycles matching some of the decadal periodicities in line with the lunar cycles noted above.

[stormchaser1]

New moon today, and as expected , strong winds expected, Last months New moon on the 9th December, we saw some heavy rain , pressure dropped to 974hpa , and it looks like the same again for this month

Nigel

Age of new moon currently 4 hours and 45 mins

size 0.50

distance= 393766