How close this year?

[LadyPakal]

I course there is no reason to panic, not at the moment anyway, but it is better to be prepared that caught napping. It would only take a small mutation in the virus (not an uncommon thing to happen) and we could find it is a more serious issue - not that is isn't a serious issue in Mexico at the moment.

This is only getting started and will probably die down over summer, but it will no doubt be back, maybe in a mutated form, and pretty much everywhere as the weather gets colder again. Hopefully a vaccine will be ready then for those who will need it by then.

The Spanish flu of 1918 had a kill rate of between 2.5-5% of those infected, similar to the death rate of this flu in Mexico. That eventually killed an estimated 50 million worldwide and lasted over 2 years, coming in waves, before it died down. Luckily, we have modern medicines now - but it isn't the rich countries that would suffer the most from this. Stop being so insular.

[Red Raven]

Sorry.

But I find it laughable that there is all this reaction to something that 'might happen to us.'

Millions of people die worldwide from diseases or even dis - eases and no-one gives a flying you know what.

Why are we worried when hundreds of thousands of people in this country die from smoking. drinking, cancer of one

kind or another, heart disease and no-one seems to care less.

Yet a few people die four thousand miles away and our tabloids panic that ten/twenty of us may suffer a little from it.

Let's grow up, people. Get Real and live in the moment!

Andy

PS If you wake up in the morning with a sniffle, don't panic. You may just have hay fever...or, hopefully...Hay - fever!

As LadyP explained if this turns out to be similar to the 1918 outbreak then the equivalent number of deaths today would be 250 million and most of those deaths would be within the age groups that are active members of society and without them the system would find it difficult to function. That in turn would leave many vulnerable communities/people to fend for themselves leading to yet more deaths.

Complacency tinged with cynicism is not helpful and I think you will find the 'hysteria' is remarkably calm and controlled.

[The PIT]

As LadyP explained if this turns out to be similar to the 1918 outbreak then the equivalent number of deaths today would be 250 million and most of those deaths would be within the age groups that are active members of society and without them the system would find it difficult to function. That in turn would leave many vulnerable communities/people to fend for themselves leading to yet more deaths.

Complacency tinged with cynicism is not helpful and I think you will find the 'hysteria' is remarkably calm and controlled.

Except that is very unlikely as it most cases the flu is very mild and responds to treatment. The deaths in mexico are mainly due to poor living standards i.e lack of clean water and so far the actual number of confirmed deaths is very small.

The flu outbreak of 1918 also happened in wartime when people weren't in the best health anyway plus the standard of living was also much lower then now than now.

The thing to note is the ease that it's spreading and if it was very deadly ones got to wonder how effective our controls would be.

[Lewis]

I'm 20 so your saying if i got it i would die B) ?? even with treatment/vaccine.

[summer blizzard]

Swine Flu is H1N1, Avian Flu is H5N1, and yes, it is now spreading from human to human so the rate will increase substantially.

[The PIT]

WHO say not

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/8030859.stm

As for control come off it we're not geared up for anything serious this time we were lucky. From what I see.

1) Slow to react.

2) No control at air ports.

3) No plans to halt air travel.

4) Insufficient manufacturing capability of drug companies.

5) People from the effected area allowed to mix freely with other members of public without any allowance for incubation periods.